Interview/P3 list for 2nd and 3rd week of April

[nooneufo]

Interview/P3 list for 2nd and 3rd week of April

Need your letter dates.

 

Good luck to everyone for the next two weeks.

Let me know of changes and additions.

(actual P3 to P4 received is as reported, not corrected for Monday/Tuesday Theory)

We are not going to forget.

Delayed--------------P3----------Status?

Maui & China------06/27/04-------In the Interview Que 04/03/05

Mari--------------07/15/04-------2nd name check delay

Alex-----------------------------12/08/04 Interview/Blue slip/Case review

Deekdoken------------------------01/??/05 Administrative processing??

 

 

Waiting to hear about these people. Let us know what happened.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

Ahhming888--------07/16/04---11/30/04---01/27/05---195-------137---------??------???------Blue/Pending

rogerluli---------10/22/04---02/22/05---03/09/05---138-------123---------K1------No-------Blue/Expired marriageability certificate

Mike Xiao---------10/28/04---02/08/05---03/11/05---134-------103-----K3/CR1/CR2--Yes------Blue/No explanation given

 

 

Listed by upcoming Interview.

CFL Name-----------------P3-------P4------Interview-#days--P3 to P4---Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

G-man-----------------11/21/04--03/14/05--04/11/05---141-------113-----K1

BandJ-----------------10/31/04--02/28/05--04/12/05---163-------120-----K1

animejpop-------------10/10/04--03/08/05--04/13/05---185-------149-----K1

boba------------------11/17/04--03/14/05--04/14/05---148-------117-----K1/K2

njbernie--------------11/02/04--03/02/05--04/15/05---164-------120-----K1

jual_3----------------??/??/??--02/28/05--04/18/05---???-------98------K1

nooneufo--------------11/26/04--03/01/05--04/18/05---143-------95------K1

Springmud ´ºÄ¨¤---------11/12/04--03/17/05--04/21/05---160-------125-----K1

larrynicholas---------11/16/04--03/01/05--04/21/05---156-------105-----K1

Dogfish---------------11/22/04--03/14/05--04/27/05---156-------112-----K1

cliff-----------------11/20/04--02/28/05--04/28/05---159-------100-----K1

da64---Delayed--------12/15/04--03/16/05--04/28/05---134-------91------K1

Markd-----------------12/22/04--03/26/05--05/16/05---145-------94------K1

perryf----------------12/20/04--03/31/05--05/16/05---147-------101-----K3

jgrier5---------------12/01/04--04/01/05--05/23/05---173-------121-----CR1

steve&wei-------------12/27/04--03/31/05--05/23/05---147-------94------IR1

dmaddox74-------------12/07/04--03/29/05--05/24/05---168-------112-----K3

vibes1313-------------12/20/04--03/29/05--05/24/05---155-------99------K1

fhtb------------------12/19/04--03/28/05--05/25/05---158-------100-----K1

hank------------------12/20/04--03/25/05--05/26/05---157-------95------K1

jimglot---------------12/08/04--03/31/05--05/31/05---113-------174-----K1

someonesbrother-------12/13/04--03/25/05--05/31/05---169-------102-----K1

peterscat/Icebreaker--12/27/04--03/28/05--05/31/05---155-------91------K1

 

 

Most Recently received P3 Interviews. Listed by P4.

CFL Name-----------------P3-------P4------Interview-#days--P3 to P4

da64---Delayed--------12/15/04--03/16/05--04/28/05---134-------91

hank------------------12/20/04--03/25/05--05/26/05---157-------95

someonesbrother-------12/13/04--03/25/05--05/31/05---169-------102

Markd-----------------12/22/04--03/26/05--05/16/05---145-------94

peterscat/Icebreaker--12/27/04--03/28/05--05/31/05---155-------91

dmaddox74-------------12/07/04--03/29/05--05/24/05---168-------112

fhtb------------------12/19/04--03/29/05--05/25/05---158-------100

vibes1313-------------12/20/04--03/29/05--05/24/05---155-------99

jimglot---------------12/08/04--03/31/05--05/31/05---113-------174

perryf----------------12/20/04--03/31/05--05/16/05---147-------101

steve&wei-------------12/27/04--03/31/05--05/23/05---147-------94

jgrier5---------------12/01/04--04/01/05--05/23/05---173-------121

 

 

This list reflects my Monday/Tuesday theory and earliest guess. P4 is my guess of the date on the Interview letter. P3 to P4 is how many days between I am calculating so that you can compare to real numbers above. You can see that I am projecting Guangzhou's past increase into the future.

 

November-------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

Zingaro-----------10/28/04---04/11/05---165

yuan95------------11/11/04---04/11/05---144

 

December-------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

Squid-------------12/07/04---04/11/05---125

Chad&Tong---------12/07/04---04/11/05---125

Ron Frank---------12/26/04---04/11/05---106

DanR--------------12/29/04---04/11/05---103

Bahan-------------12/01/04---04/11/05---131

Bahan-------------12/29/04---04/1/05---103

Bahan-------------01/05/05---04/11/05---96

 

January--------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

Keith-N-Min-------01/05/05---04/11/05---96

lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/11/05---96

melvin------------01/05/05---04/11/05---96

Liuxia's Husband--01/06/05---04/11/05---95

Feathers268-------01/07/05---04/11/05---94

nousername--------01/09/05---04/25/05---92

June03------------01/11/05---04/25/05---104

LouRose-----------01/11/05---04/25/05---104

inxy--------------01/15/05---04/25/05---100

krjchen-----------01/15/05---04/18/05---93

john90------------01/20/05---04/18/05---88

Littleturtle------01/??/05---Need P3 in computer date

 

February--------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

benfanfan---------02/02/05---05/09/05---96

benfanfan---------03/03/05---06/06/05---95

DocMartin817------02/03/05---04/23/05---79

DocMartin817------02/03/05---05/09/05---95

F & L-------------02/24/05---06/06/05---102

Jfong988----------02/25/05---06/06/05---101

vincent-----------02/25/05---06/06/05---101

pkfops------------02/26/05---06/06/05---100

 

March-----------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

Maui & China------03/05/05---05/23/05---79

Maui & China------03/05/05---06/06/05---93

Ghostrider--------03/06/05---06/06/05---99

yuehan123---------03/08/05---05/23/05---76

yuehan123---------03/08/05---06/06/05---90

mild bill---------03/08/05---06/08/05---90

F & L-------------03/10/05---06/14/05---96

Menqxin-----------03/08/05---06/06/05---83

mlspyl------------03/10/05---06/06/05---74

mlspyl------------03/24/05---06/13/05---74

Chinese Wife!!!---02/14/05---06/06/05---112

Chinese Wife!!!---03/11/05---06/06/05---87

dailyview---------03/18/05---05/30/05---73

RICHARDLOVESPING--03/23/05---06/06/05---75

alaskagypsy-------03/25/05---06/06/05---73

riki3742----------03/26/05---06/27/05---93

ngatl15-----------03/28/05---07/04/05---98

DavidZixuan-------03/30/05---07/04/05---96

xulei601----------03/31/05---07/04/05---95

 

April-----------------P3---------P4------P3 to P4

impatient---------04/08/05---06/21/05---74

BuffaloPaul-------04/01/05---07/04/05---94

Jason+Joanna------04/07/05---07/11/05---95

Luo_Bin_&-Jian----04/08/05---07/11/05---94

 

If the P3 date listed is not the one in the computer at GZ, let me know it if you want a more accurate prediction. If it is the date you sent the P3, I would add a week or two.

 

(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)

Color code for K1 and K3 sending P3 to Guz(Top color most accurate)

Red = P3 entered in Computer

Blue = P3 received at GUZ (Mail delivery of P3 papers)

Green = P3 sent to GUZ

Pink = P3 received from GUZ

Orange = P3 uncertain

Color code for K3/CR1/IR1 sending ds-230 to NVC(Still working on accuracy, need more data)

Brown = DS-230 Sent to NVC or Received

Purple = Case Complete at NVC

Gray = DS-230 At GUZ from NVC

 

Additional Note: Shifted time line guesses to a longer value to account for Guangzhou being closed May 2nd, 3rd, 4th and the 30th. I am assuming they won't speed up, but they could.

 

 

Anyone who would like my spread sheet, PM me your email address and I will send it to you. Lots of colorful confusing charts, plenty of time lines...over 80.

If you are K1/K3, and your color in not red, you should try to find out the date your P3 was entered into the computer, or tell me it needs correction.

It is very useful to have the reported P4 date be the date that is on the Interview letter itself on your time line as well as when you know or receive it. Also the date on your P3 letter. Both are in the upper right hand corner of the letter.

So far I have only one persons dates from their two letters (P3 and P4). There is a a clear sequence going on, that I think would allow for a better prediction capability for the list, if people would report these two dates. Especially for all those interviewed already since January 2005. I will work on this when I come back to show how this is. Would greatly appretiate anyone sending me these two dates, even for people who still show time lines for 2004.

[Mengxin]

I'm jealous, I started a little bit before you did and I am still 5 months away from interview. I'm married, your not. (Yet) I don't want to take away from your celibration, but that really sucks for my wife and I to wait longer than neccessary. I don't understand why a married couple would take the longest time to process. I know the procedure and handeling. A married couple is kept apart longer than students, business men and fiancees. What is our time worth? Why are we the ones that get punished? an extra 5 months of separation. An extra 5 months before I can be happy again. Sorry I'm trippin' right now, but I just have a hard time getting over it.

 

Best wishes to you and yours,

[nooneufo]

I agree it is wrong. Very wrong. If I had to do it over, knowing what I know now, I would have said lets go to Hong Kong, get married and file for K3. At the time, I only knew that K1 was faster. To be positive, if I understand correctly, it used to take quite a few years for married couples before....I would only guess the famous excuse of fraud...but I don't buy it all. The numbers don't follow. Hang on, your time is going to come.

[Zingaro]

Thanks once again for the very useful info. Your labor truly is appreciated.

 

As I look at your data, I more and more begin to feel like an anomaly. People whose P3's landed at GZ at least a month AFTER ours already have their P4s. My SO mailed her P3 to GZ on 10/28/04. Best guestimate is that GZ should have logged it in by around 11/10-20/04.

 

I have twice emailed GZ, asking if they received my SO's K-1 documents and what date they entered my SO's case into the computer - only to receive what looks like a non-responsive automated replies: "name check incomplete".

 

How can I find out what date GZ logged my SO's case into the computer? I see that many folks here have very detailed dates and data about case progress.

 

We're still being patient, but feeling rather frustrated at this point.

 

Richard

[C4Racer]

At the time, I only knew that K1 was faster. To be positive, if I understand correctly, it used to take quite a few years for married couples before....I would only guess the famous excuse of fraud...but I don't buy it all. The numbers don't follow. Hang on, your time is going to come.

I do not think it has anything to do with the consulate thinking about fraud. K3 and CR1 both have additional processing done at the consulate level while with K1 the processing is done by USCIS once you are married. K1 is faster simply because there is less work for the consulate to perform.

So when you decide which route to go, it is important to understand how and where each is processed. Then decide what factors are most important to you. We decided it was more important to have her here quickly so we opted for K1.

The consulate will look for fraud in all visa cases.

[nooneufo]

zingaro,

Yes your dates are of a concern. I use what I call a "kick out" number to determine the likelyhood of the p4, which right now I guesstimate to be between 110 and 120 days from the date on the P3 letter. Which is why I am asking people to provide these two dates in addition to the rest of their time line info so that I can try to verify this and track it. While we know you cant get a P4 if you are still waiting for the name check to be complete, you still have not exceed the times of some people within the last three months either. Here is an example of your time if we assume you got a P4 this week, and an interview date in May, your wait time would not exceed the longest person (190 days P3 to Interview) or the person who had the shortest notice (25 days P4 to Interview) and the recent creeping up of time for the P3 to P4 time of 165 days. It would probably not be unreasonable to think it could take longer as well because of the past increase in time. Again, the name check has to be completed first before an Interview can be scheduled.

 

Zingaro-----10/28/04---04/11/05---05/06/05---190----25---165

 

To get more information, you have to call DOS at 1-202-663-1225, then press 1, then 0 then 0, and have your GUZ number and other information ready. You can ask them to tell you the date that Guz put the P3 papers into the computer, they can also tell you your status, ie. name check pending, waiting for interview....

I hope something happens soon for you.

 

As for consulate time, a year ago they could do this in less than 60 days P3 to inteview, and so can every other consulate in the world. The obvious follows.

[Feathers268]

nooneufo,

Your charts have been very helpful, but you got me going crazy with antisipation on our pending p4. Now, don't worry about us and go get your sweetheart. And I only want to hear about a white slip followed by visa!

Best wishes,

Jim

[nooneufo]

Thank you Feathers268,

I am hopeful that this week they get back on track, but I really would not expect the earliest until next week for you. But I was surprised, so you could be too. I am gone.

[Jason+Joanna]

nooneufo -

 

I am super happy to be one your list with a projected 95 day wait to P4. As you can see by my timeline below I have also made a prediction of my own, which was based on the 120 day average from P3 to P4 you had written about earilier.

 

By the way Joanna sent the P3 back to GZ on the 4/8/05. We recieved it on 4/7/05.

I should have a some information one when they recieved it soon as well -- sent it by EMS, so we could track it B) . Hopefully it can be entered in the computer by our tax day here -- 4/15/05....

 

Thanks again for all your efforts !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[melvin]

nooneufo,

 

I originally gave you my date of 1/5/05 for my wife returning her P3 to GZ, but she told me that GZ had sent her informaton that she had make an error on filling out one of the forms, and she corrected it and sent it back to GZ on 2/15/05, therefore I am sure her informaton is in the GZ database by 1/20/ 05 at least, and you can just use that date as our P3 to P4 return date. Thanks for doing such a fine job with the projected timelines.

 

Melvin

[Jason+Joanna]

A little update, GZ rec. P3 on 4/9/05 now we sit in a pile waiting to get entered into the computer ...

[Luo_Bin_&_Jialu]

Jason:

 

Your case is getting processed really fast. You are lucky.

 

Our P3 was received in GZ on April 10. So we are a few days behind you. Some cases make me nervous, how they just sit for months on end after the P3.....

[aquach]

Jason:

 

Well you and I are on the same track as we too sent the P3 back on 4/8. I have not verified whether they have received it yet but my SO sent it by EMS from Shanghai so I expect it would be there by 4/11 the latest. Did you call the DOS to see if they received it or did you just email GUZ?

[Jason+Joanna]

Jason:

 

Your case is getting processed really fast. You are lucky.

 

Our P3 was received in GZ on April 10. So we are a few days behind you. Some cases make me nervous, how they just sit for months on end after the P3.....

Rob:

 

Looks like we are on the same path pretty much. We both need to wait for GZ to enter in the computer. I am hoping that that will happen by the end of the week. I plan to check with them around 4/18/05 to see what the status is.

 

Anyway, looks like we will both make it to the finish line around the same time frame.

[Jason+Joanna]

Jason:

 

Well you and I are on the same track as we too sent the P3 back on 4/8. I have not verified whether they have received it yet but my SO sent it by EMS from Shanghai so I expect it would be there by 4/11 the latest. Did you call the DOS to see if they received it or did you just email GUZ?

aquach --

 

I had my S.O. track the package via EMS. She called the other night to EMS, and they said the consulate has recieved the package. I don't think GZ will have any record until they enter it the computer -- or at least that is my thinking...