Timeline Posted January 2, 2006 Report Share Posted January 2, 2006 (edited) Upcoming Interview & P4/Interview Projection Tables for January 2006. For the Upcoming Interview Table, I will keep the previous month, the current month, any future month(s) interviews on the table. Also, any previous outstanding cases will remain. ........Total.....Down.....ToGo---.....-----.....----.....----NOV......25........25........0DEC......12........12........0JAN.......3.........2........1FEB.......5.........0........5 Some thoughts: The "speed up" at the consulate has finally occured. This is welcome news to all. The time period from P3 to P4 to interview date is quickly decreasing. I hope it will decrease more in the coming months. However, one downside to this "speed up" in scheduling is the "2nd namecheck" process. The old time frame from P3 to interview was 4 - 6 months. This time permitted a wide variance in the "2nd namecheck" completion (2 - 8 weeks) without delaying the P4/Interview date. Only in extreme cases was the P4/Interview date delayed. Now, I think any member whose "2nd namecheck" completion takes longer than 4 weeks (my guess), might expect to experience a delay in their P4/Interview dates. Not sure about this, only my opinion. Alex we hope to hear good news soon.christer and EdG we hope for eventual success.Please PM me with any change in your case status and I will update the Interview TableGood luck to all (one so far) this month !!! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ..---------------------------------- Upcoming Interview Date Table ------------------------------------"..CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type.Pass.USC..Comments..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".jbray.................04/28/05..10/02/05...11/02/05...188....157...DCF..Yes.......CR1".kaigaorui.............07/18/05..09/28/05...11/07/05...112.....72...K1...Yes..Yes..P3 mix-up by GZ".sailorboy.............06/15/05..09/30/05...11/07/05...145....107...K3...Yes..Yes..Overcome - 11/14/05".singularis67..........09/09/05..10/13/05...11/07/05....59.....34...K3...Yes........".fly...................09/22/05..10/19/05...11/07/05....46.....27...K1...Yes..No....".notrevorich...........09/16/05..10/20/05...11/07/05....52.....34...K1...Yes..Yes..Overcome - 11/17/05".HTW & QZ..............07/18/05..09/29/05...11/08/05...113.....73...CR1.............".Meidon................08/18/05..10/12/05...11/14/05....88.....55...K1...Yes..No....".m-coon................08/26/05..10/20/05...11/14/05....80.....55...K3...Yes..No....".Jocelyn...............04/20/05..10/01/05...11/15/05...209....164...DCF..Yes........".tenfootalbino.........05/02/05..10/12/05...11/15/05...197....163...CR1..Yes..Yes..P4 estimate".johnkinsale...........09/08/05..10/19/05...11/15/05....68.....41...K1...Yes........".Dogderf...............06/10/05..10/17/05...11/17/05...160....129...K1...Yes..No....".raineedaze............07/21/05..11/12/05...11/17/05...119....114...K3...Yes..No...P4 estimate".mlspyl................06/04/05..09/28/05...11/21/05...170....116...CR1..Yes..Yes...".bobmal99..............06/23/05..09/29/05...11/21/05...151.....98...IR2..Yes..Yes..Two children".Mengxin...............06/04/05..10/01/05...11/21/05...170....119...CR1..Yes..No....".Randy_W...............06/24/05..10/01/05...11/22/05...151.....99...K1...Yes..No....".Joanne................07/22/05..10/02/05...11/22/05...123.....72...K3...Yes..No...IR1".Tian9426..............07/22/05..10/03/05...11/22/05...123.....73...K1...Yes..Yes...".Jenn..................09/06/05..10/18/05...11/22/05....77.....42...K1...Yes..Yes...".DW1...................06/11/05..09/29/05...11/28/05...170....110...CR1..Yes.......P3 estimate".bnolsen...............07/16/05..09/29/05...11/29/05...136.....75...K1...Yes.......P4 estimate".Tina_&_Jarrod.........07/08/05..10/19/05...11/29/05...144....103...CR1..Yes........".Linbar................04/12/05..09/29/05...11/30/05...232....170...CR1..Yes..........--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".BillV_8-16-2004.......08/23/05..11/02/05...12/01/05...100.....71...K3...Yes..Yes..CR1, P3 mix up".Carl..................07/21/05..11/02/05...12/05/05...137....104...CR1..Yes..No....".shyaushu..............08/18/05..11/15/05...12/07/05...111.....89...CR1..Yes........".Ping&Jesus............07/25/05..11/07/05...12/08/05...136....105...CR1..Yes........".markndannie...........07/16/05..11/02/05...12/12/05...149....109...CR1..Yes..Yes...".tlondon...............08/30/05..11/02/05...12/14/05...106.....64...CR1..Yes..No...P4 estimate".diver1959.............09/23/05..11/05/05...12/20/05....88.....43...K1...No........BC for son needed".Brucetb...............07/18/05..11/05/05...12/21/05...156....110...CR1..Yes..No....".Jay...................07/18/05..11/07/05...12/21/05...156....112...CR1..Yes..No....".comebackkit...........11/19/05..11/28/05...12/21/05....32......9...K3...Yes..No...HK".castaway109...........07/16/05..11/02/05...12/23/05...160....109...K3...Yes.......P3, P4 estimate".hlguan................08/13/05..11/03/05...12/30/05...139.....82...K1...Yes..........--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".mnmext................10/17/05..12/02/05...01/03/06....78.....46...K3...No........Overcome required".artmill4..............09/15/05..12/02/05...01/11/06...118.....78...K3...Yes.......P3, P4 estimate".Homeprincess..........11/07/05..12/06/05...01/16/06....70.....29...K1................--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".ameriken..............12/07/05..12/30/05...02/07/06....62.....23...K1..............".Chinky................09/06/05..01/02/06...02/16/06...163....118...CR1.............".ckhang................11/09/05..01/01/06...02/22/06...105.....53...K3..............".susieq................12/07/05..12/28/05...02/24/06....79.....21...K1..............".izus..................11/01/05..12/28/05...02/28/06...119.....57...K1................--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------" Nooneufo & Mark Edited January 13, 2006 by Timeline (see edit history) Link to comment
Timeline Posted January 2, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2006 (edited) Historical Average Tables Some Thoughts: I discard "outlayers" when calculating the averages. This is the reason why the number of interviews used to calculate the average for a particular month might be less than the actual number of interviews for that month. Outlayers are cases that the "P3 to P4" number of days are either too short or too long. A few outlayers can abnormally skew the average either way. The "P3 to P4" time is finally displaying a "concrete downward trend. The "P4 to Interview" time might decrease if the consulate sends the P4 letters in the first week of the month instead of the previous week. Also, if they continue with a "two shot salvo", beginning and mid-month this will decrease the time from P4 to actual interview date. ..................................Historical Average from P3 - P4 - IV (Interview Date)..................................-----------------------------------------------------.....Month(s).(2005)......#..of...One Month Average (days)...Three Month Average (days)..---------------------...Inter...-------------------------...-------------------------....One.........Three.....views...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...Comments..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" January...................32......135......174.......39............................" February...................9......119......161.......42............................" March.......JAN - MAR.....23......127......171.......44.......130......171.......41..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" April.......FEB - APR.....13......112......153.......41.......121......164.......43" May.........MAR - MAY.....16......108......159.......51.......117......163.......46" June........APR - JUN.....21......111......146.......35.......110......152.......42..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" July........MAY - JUL......1.......98......153.......55............................" August......JUN - AUG......7......106......156.......50............................" September...JUL - SEP.....33......109......156.......47.......108......156.......48..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" October.....AUG - OCT.....15.......99......150.......51.......106......154.......48" November....SEP - NOV.....25.......92......131.......39.......101......146.......45" December....OCT - DEC.....11.......91......131.......40........94......137.......43..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" January.....NOV - JAN......3.......51.......89.......38........89......128.......39" February....DEC - FEB......4.......39.......91.......52........73......115.......42..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" K1..........APR - FEB.....85...................................94......137.......43" K3..........APR - FEB.....30...................................97......139.......42 ..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...---------- Mark Edited January 12, 2006 by Timeline (see edit history) Link to comment
Timeline Posted January 2, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2006 (edited) Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Some thoughts: The process has improved drastically (getting shorter) in October. Only time and more data points will tell if the process will continue to improve or level out. I have a slightly more agressive prediction formula (using the more recent data), but will not implement this, until I see next month's round of P4s. I have changed the projected P4/Interview date formula due to the following conditions: 1. New information (data points)2. Using a different sampling period (we currently use a three month running average) This formula update has only slightly modified (shortened) the P3 - P4 time periods. I have adjusted the P4 date to reflect, the approximately five working days each month that the P4 letter is actually generated. Based on recent past history, I have chosen the last three days and first two weekdays of the prior month(s) before the month of interview to project the P4 date. For example: for interviews scheduled in November of 2005 the P4 dates are : September 28, 29, 30 and October 3, 4. I hope this method better reflects the Consulate's actual process. I have not changed the projected Interview date only the projected P4 date. The adjusted P4 date should better reflect "actual" P4 dates. A word of caution, if a member is close to the end/beginning of the monthly cycle, then the Prediction can be off by approximately one month !!! Only interviews schedule after September have the adjusted information. And unlike the Consulate, I have projected the Interview date based on earlier P3 date = earlier Interview date. I realize the Consulate fills up the monthly interview dates using a different method, but since I do not have access to this, I will use the "first in", "first out" method. I must update members on the table with new information and add members who are not on the table but now have P3 data. I know there are many more members who should be included on the Prediction Table, so please PM me if you have new information on your case. Thanks !!! ..------------------------- Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table ---------------------------............................................-----Projected-----............CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type..Comments..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" October...Toad..................07/23/05..09/05/05...10/06/05....76.....44...DCF...CR1, Namecheck ?"...........Phnom.................05/04/05..09/06/05...10/10/05...160....125...CR1...Namecheck delay"...........eeyore................05/09/05..09/08/05...10/19/05...164....122...CR1...Namecheck delay..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" November..goneflying2000........07/30/05..10/10/05...11/23/05...117.....72...CR1...Namecheck delay..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" December..rhour.................10/12/05..11/08/05...12/22/05....72.....27...DCF...CR1"...........Chad..................10/18/05..11/09/05...12/28/05....72.....22...K3....Namecheck complete..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" February..Paula.................10/11/05..01/04/06...02/02/06...115.....85...CR1...Namecheck complete"...........susieq................12/07/05..01/06/06...02/16/06....72.....30...K1....."...........critter...............12/09/05..01/10/06...02/22/06....76.....32...K3....Namecheck complete"...........bearbear..............09/21/05..01/11/06...02/27/06...160....112...CR1...."...........Li'sZhangfu...........11/02/05..01/11/06...02/27/06...118.....70...CR1...Namecheck complete..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" March.....Katrina...............12/16/05..02/06/06...03/01/06....76.....52...DCF...CR1"...........Hanli.................10/03/05..02/07/06...03/08/06...157....127...CR1...."...........JoeAndJing............12/22/05..02/07/06...03/09/06....78.....47...K1....."...........Redsunset52...........12/26/05..02/08/06...03/13/06....78.....44...K1....."...........ckhang................10/07/05..02/08/06...03/14/06...159....124...CR1...."...........wolf190...............11/18/05..02/08/06...03/14/06...117.....82...CR1...Namecheck complete"...........shutterme2............12/27/05..02/08/06...03/14/06....78.....43...K3....."...........Gator.................12/23/05..02/08/06...03/15/06....83.....47...K1....."...........BytheLake.............01/02/06..02/09/06...03/20/06....78.....38...K1....."...........rlheim................01/05/06..02/13/06...03/28/06....83.....39...K1....."...........philb.................01/10/06..02/13/06...03/28/06....78.....34...K1....."...........tusconjim.............01/11/06..02/13/06...03/29/06....78.....33...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" April.....Iluvmyli..............01/10/06..03/06/06...04/03/06....84.....55...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" June......shaffja...............01/09/06..05/11/06...06/21/06...164....122...CR1...."...........Yuanyang..............01/10/06..05/11/06...06/22/06...164....121...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------" Mark Edited January 13, 2006 by Timeline (see edit history) Link to comment
Timeline Posted January 2, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2006 (edited) 01/02/06 - 12:00 Noon (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)DW1 : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!bobmal99 : Bob's two stepchildren passed the interview after an ubelievable experience. Congratulations !!!bnolsen : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Tian9426 : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!BillV_8-16-2004 : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!comebackkit : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Carl : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Ping&Jesus : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!markndannie : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!tlondon : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Jay : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Brucetb : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!shyaushu : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Linbar : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Tina_&_Jarrod : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!hlguan : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Homeprincess : Interview date added.ckhang : Interview date added. P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3). : Added I need more P3 dates to add to the Prediction Table or are all the new members drying up ???[/b] I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Edited January 2, 2006 by Timeline (see edit history) Link to comment
susieq Posted January 3, 2006 Report Share Posted January 3, 2006 pls add me into the project. 11-24-05 P302-24-06 interview. Thanks,susieq Link to comment
ameriken Posted January 3, 2006 Report Share Posted January 3, 2006 Hey timeline, also add us to the p4/interview list. I called DOS on 12/30, and they told us that 12/28 was our P4 date, and that our interview date is Feb 7. We are anxiously awaiting the P4 package now. Link to comment
philb Posted January 3, 2006 Report Share Posted January 3, 2006 You can finally add me ...p-3 received. Phil Link to comment
BytheLake Posted January 4, 2006 Report Share Posted January 4, 2006 Please add my info to the timelineThanks Van Link to comment
Yuanyang Posted January 4, 2006 Report Share Posted January 4, 2006 Please add my timeline per my signature. Link to comment
Timeline Posted January 4, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2006 01/04/06 - 03:00 PM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)ameriken : Interview date added. P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3). : Added I need more P3 dates to add to the Prediction Table or are all the new members drying up ???[/b] For those who have contacted me on P3 updates, I will add the new prediction table on Friday or Saturday. Thanks !!! I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
Timeline Posted January 5, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2006 01/05/06 - 02:00 PM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)izus : Interview date added. P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3). : Added I need more P3 dates to add to the Prediction Table or are all the new members drying up ???[/b] For those who have contacted me on P3 updates, I will add the new prediction table on Friday or Saturday. Thanks !!! I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
Chad Posted January 5, 2006 Report Share Posted January 5, 2006 Well my namecheck has been completed and waiting on a Interview date since oct 18th! Begining to think my SO's paper work found one of the cracks after moving through pretty well. Link to comment
rlheim Posted January 6, 2006 Report Share Posted January 6, 2006 (edited) Upcoming Interview & P4/Interview Projection Tables for January 2006 I do not know if my information will help you, Yanlans P-3 package was mailed on Jan 5th from Guangzhou.....Our time line below. rick Edited January 11, 2006 by rlheim (see edit history) Link to comment
JoeAndJing Posted January 7, 2006 Report Share Posted January 7, 2006 Feel free to add me to the list. Joe Link to comment
shaffja Posted January 10, 2006 Report Share Posted January 10, 2006 you can add us to the list... Link to comment
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