nooneufo

Congratulations to you and yours, and thank you for the dates and good interview information.

The letter format may have changed, but it should be the sheet of paper that says what day is your interview. You need the letter that says what day is your interview, to be used for the medical, and to show the guard while waiting in line for the interview. I think some one recently had a letter that was wrong, and went to the consulate the day before to get a correct one. (The petitioner did this). Last two short notice people were MRMC of 22 days, and rogerluli of 15 days.

I have monitored 001 as well but have not used them to post data tracking for p4 predictions for the reason that they can only place one date for each piece of information. For example, the P3 date, is it the date received, or sent, or on the letter or entered into the computer? This makes a big difference depending on what you are looking for. I do use it to check against the predictions, for your perusal, here is a tracking chart to compare. I can only repeat the mantra, need the actual dates printed on peoples P3 and P4 letters. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/001CFLcompared.gif

Time for some more charts. I wish there was good news. But at least I can't say there is bad news either. Just the same news. I hope it has become obvious to most, that there is a pattern. More accurate data would make this clearer still. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3toP4.gif http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3toInterview.gif http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/JulytoJanuaryP3.gif

Knowing what I know now, I would have gone to Hong Kong, India, or Thailand, gotten married and filed accordingly. It would have been faster.

I see no discernable difference, K1/K3/CR1/IR1 once your data and file is at/in Guangzhou computers. Everyone is treated equally........ See my CR1 report on the Interview list thread for the 3rd week of May.

For the CR1's, here is some data from 001 forum of recent CR1's ---P3----------P4------Interview---#days 12/01/04--- 04/27/05--- 06/01/05--- 182 12/03/04--- 04/20/05--- 05/13/05--- 161 12/10/04--- 03/27/05--- 05/26/05--- 167 12/29/04--- 05/13/05--- 06/16/05--- 169 12/30/04--- 04/28/05--- 06/21/05--- 173 What date is being reported for the P3 is not certain, but I post this so you can compare to the monitoring done here. I make the assumption the likely reported date is for either the case complete at NVC, or when it is in Guangzhou computers. Total average is 170 days. Recent averages show approximately a 8 day difference in P3 to Interview days compared to CFL for the same time period of K1/K3 total average of 162 days for December P3s. Because there is a week to week fluctuation, it is hard to tell where a person will end on the monthly curve, until we can get more accurate reporting dates.

For CR-1's I am using the three following pieces of information to track. DS-230 Sent to NVC Case Complete at NVC Case At GUZ from NVC Right now with the few numbers we have, it appears to me that once the case is at Guangzhou, it gets put into the same waiting line time wise as the K1/K3. However, that is using only five peoples time lines. Using data from 001, it also appears the same, but the data is not as clear because people there can only report one date when they could mean one of three or four dates. Since it takes the same time, I assume they might do the same things, like a name check. However, I have my suspicion that if they don't do this, that in realty, each persons application goes into a stack, and when your turn comes up, it comes off the stack, and then it is checked to see if all things are completed. If not, back into the stack you go. So for a CR1, I think this question could be answered by calling DOS, and asking the status, for example if they say you are waiting for a name check. However you are not at this stage yet. So one of the other CR1' s who are further along will have to answer that. Bahan is a CR1 who is at this point, and it is 165 days from when he sent his ds-230. jgrier5 was 155 days from when she sent their ds-230. Using some time lines from 001, I think there is a margin of 20 days +/- from then to a P4. (add up to two months after P4 for interview datee). Averagely speaking, because their are other CR1's who are waiting longer on 001, but maybe they are not updating. The trouble with using this date, is that the time between different people varies from then to when it is complete, which is why I think it is more reliable to go from when Guangzhou has the case complete papers. We use all thre times for now, because it does give a generally consistent estimate so far. But if I were to guess, I think it is sent out for a name check, because the time at NVC is not long. If names checks are not done by Guangzhou, or NVC, I assume it gets requested at Guangzhou. NVC just appears to do their thing....whatever that might be. It appears that you are also doing a K3, that this could go faster, as this happend to someone recently, but I forget who for now. I also think someone got the K3 changed to a CR1 when they went to the interview, but I could be mis-remembering that, maybe they changed from a CR1 to an IR1.

Congrats to Feathers268 and wulongtea both. Good to see the timing for most people remains on schedule at the least. Zingaro, I am hoping Monday not only increases your knowledge and ours, but that change happens as well.

My opinion based on the little data collected so far, is that the wait appears to be about the same. Not certain if they are doing the same things as K1/k3, although I would infer that they are, otherwise it should be longer, or shorter a wait time. Waiting for more data. Since your time line covers all bases, recent time lines show an average of 70 days from NOA2 to a P3...maybe your K3 will arrive sooner than the CR1.

Statistically speaking, the averages over the last six months for P3 computer entries has been two weeks to one month from it being sent in the mail. Remember, last week there were no known interviews or P4's. Only two work days. They must take some time to get ready for their move, so I would attribute those pieces of information to this. You sent it 04/21/05, and you have great tracking info, but I would not be surprised if you found it entered today, or next week based on previous time lines....not the best news, but no cause for worry yet. We will update both of your data into the list later today.

Littleturtle, Would need to know the date in the upper right hand corner of your P3 letter to get a better guess, but based on current times, assuming they don't go backwards I have you on my chart of maybe 06/21/05 for the P4 and as early as 08/04/05 for Interview. But realistically, the current trend is not optimistic, and we wont know the next months trend for another couple of weeks. Concerning name checks, clearly you can not get a P4 until the namecheck is done. We don't have that much data on the time it takes for this, but it appears to average between 80 to 100 days from when the P3 is entered into the Guz computer. I would say it is not time to fret yet, until all the others in your date group have been issued their P4, if at that time they say name check is still happening, I know I would be concerned. Right now we are still in the December /January P3 group. Perhaps others who have had this horrible experience and are past it can provide more information on this topic? Recent memory is CFL'ers Mari, Maui & China, and now Zingaro. I forget what happened to Da64, or if they just lost his papers.

Okay, don't get hurt. I assume she had other vaccinations already? My fiance has had no shots at all except the three (unknown right now) at Guangzhou. The uscis webpage and I-693 form says the following, The required vaccination are: mumps, measles, rubella, polio, tetanus, diphtheria toxoids, pertussis, influenza type B, hepatitis B, and any other vaccinations recommended by the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP). Current ACIP recommendations also include the varicella, haemophilius inlfuenzae type B, and pneumococcal vaccines. She is making travel plans to get the booster in China, and I am saying unless she gets all the ones needed for later, she may as well save the travel trouble and just get them here....maybe, if it fits the budget mind.vs the ease of travel mind. Thinking about this some more, my question is has anyone else found they needed to get all these shots listed on the USCIS webpage above for any reasons? Or just the three that the clinic in Guangzhou promotes( which I still need to find out what they were).

Trying to decide if all the vaccinations listed are needed...meaning I see the form shows about eleven different shots, at Guangzhou they only gave her three, will more be required for a K1? If so, which ones, or all on the form? My local civil surgeon is unable, or unwilling to answer this question...today.

Zingaro, We will get your time line updated soon, although it does still make it the longest. When you talked with DOS, do they say you are still waiting for a name check, or do they say you are waiting for an interview?

Feathers268 My own experience, and monitoring others, is that no one has ever gotten an answer that was useful concerning the P4...ever, from emailing Guz. This leaves calling DOS, which as we know, people there are sometimes more helpful. My question usually was something like this, "Can you tell me the status of my case?". Depending on how they answer this, I might next ask the question like "Is my case waiting for an Interview?". No one has ever gotten more than that, except when they say the date the P4 is sent. I also followed warpbored advice, which is the most helpful people seem to be there on a Tuesday. And finally, if we look at the data trend, you are not out of line yet. If you were to get a P4 this week, and put your Interview date of say 06/16/05, that would be around 160 days p3 to Inteview and a notice of 37 days....fitting the time lines okay. If this week is a delay week, meaning the total time is going back up to 180 days, that would mean there is still plenty more time to suffer yet. For example, you get a P4 next week, and the Interview is 06/20/05...still fitting the edge of the time lines. Sorry about that, but maybe this helps.

When I spoke with a person at the American Citizens Services on April 18th, they said to me at two different points in the conversation that they will be moving June 22nd. We have one CFL'er already scheduled for interview on June 30th. No interviews we know of on CFL and 001 were scheduled an interview for May 5th or 6th. (So what were they doing? How about getting ready to move, or catching up? Taking extra days off?) Take all that as more information to consider. For myself, I tend to think we will not see much of a bump, because we have already seen it. I could be wrong.

This week is the 1st week of May.

Please post on this list. Let the April list go down the page. We will update here instead to keep title order. If you posted a correction in the previous list, give us a little time to add it here. Thanks.

The stats you want were discussed in this thread..... http://candleforlove.com/forums/index....8b9df15dfe23b26

If nothing were to change, and it all kept the same, I have you down as an Interview the week of July 25th. We don't post it, but the pattern is that the initial date on the P3 letter starts the clock, if the P3 is returned within a set amount of time, one that I am still trying to determine( where is the point where you go into the next group). If only we could get everyone to post the dates on their P3/P4 letter. From this you can tell you pretty much when the interview is likely to be. Since less than three percent of all the people who go to this consulate give any date at all on CFL, you can imagine how much easier it would be to know what is going on if more people provided some information, rather than following the example of the government, whose example everyone is familiar with. They use a computer, they process lots of files, it is going to be done in a certain order. To do it out of order would require more work. Unless they stop doing that, or doing more, the progression should be clear. I hope they speed back up and it is sooner than expected for you.

I messed up the really nice diplay. Please wait until mypyl gets a chance to fix it again.

I would try calling different times and days to DOS, as that is probably your best chance at getting someone who will read to you what is on the screen. The next is to ask Mari and Maui & China what they did, as they are the two who have recently been unfortunate to have this happen to them.

Congratulations. Hope to read your story when you have time.

Littleturtle, I highly recommend checking out the timelines of others on the Interview/P3 list. We are only touching the beginning of January "P3 entered into the computer" P3s. The P3-to-Interview wait times for the last six accurate dates provided people are; 145 days 155 days 140 days 176 days 139 days 151 days 153 days It is a full month to go before any February P3's could possibly expect a P4, if Guz simply keeps plodding along the same way. They have scheduled at least one interview after the projected move in June, so it is still up in the air whether this will really affect things that much more than they have been do far. With the exception of the horrible delays to Maui & China and Mari from over six months ago, there is only Zingaro who is beyond the time period for everyone else here. As many people will tell you, what they email you, is not always so. What they tell you is not alway so. Until you are behind the pack, I would not worry yet unless they tell you they have nothing, and even then I would keep checking. Even some people who have been told they are in name delay, have made it in time with their same time group, and there is a lot of time yet before your turn should come around. And you can always check again in a week, to see what a different person has to say at DOS, because we know different people are better than others. I believe it was warpbored who recommend calling on a Tuesday to get the best people. I don't have you on the list because you don't have a time line. I advise daily reading at CFL during the wait.