nooneufo

I hope you will keep us up to date on how long this takes, as that would be interesting.

The basic answer is there is no change in the P4 to Interview time based on the week assignment of each month. Each week of each month of P3's is similar to the next. The first initial P4's start at around 55-60 days, then 40-45, then around 30....it varies, but really there is no trend there to speak of shorter notice. The first two weeks seems fairly standard, then the second two weeks appears random. I have so far attibuted this appearence to the variations on the dates that people report and to the lack of a larger sample. Sometimes a few short notices, but this always happens. However, I do monitor it in case there is something there. I can post a new chart of it if you like, but it is on previous chart postings if you want to look back in old lists. Update: while I do not plan on changing the P4 list for this week, it appears after receiving some more specific date information, and that one of those on 001 who got a fast turn around is apparently pregnant, the trend appears to be the same, and there will not be an increase in speed beyond what we have seen so far. One can hope though. As we know, surprises happen. And sometime got to shake things up a little and see if a new idea come out.

Congratulations and happy future together. As always, great to hear about details.

If we were to take last months trend, and kept it the same, with the exception of Zingaro who we know is in name check delay, Chad&Tong who we have not heard from, We could reasonably expect the following people might get a P4, depending on the date of the interview. Bahan June03 markandyuping john90 Littleturtle Jfong988 DocMartin817 Take the P4 list after the ones listed above as a comparison for this week of "If only" Looking at the average wait time for everyone with an Interview scheduled with January P3's, everyone waited 105 days or longer P3 to P4. This tied in with the P3 to Interview time is how I determine where to put someone on the waiting list, based on guessing if they do not provide enough date information. Recently there are two P4's on 001, but because I can not truely determine if the dating is correct, because this happens every month as well it seems, there appears to be a larger jump there than on CFL. But it could be a fluke. However, the charting shows a departure from week to week fluctuations. I will also say the fluctuation of numbers could simply be a part of the move, meaning stacks are getting disturbed, so therefore the order is getting a little mixed. Lucky for some. For consideration, two recent postings on 001 forum. Are they typos? The last tiem they emailed Guz? (No time to make pretty) Name---------P3-------P4------- Interview--------#days--------P3toP4 race2time 4/4/2005 5/23/2005 6/21/2005 ----------78 ----------49 ¶£µ± ------3/25/2005 5/19/2005 7/25/2005 ---------122 --------55 Updated P3 to Interview Chart using 001 dates. Note the radical change from August to September. Is this week the start of the same sort of thing? You know who knows the answer to that.... http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/001P3tointerview23may2005.gif

Bahan, here are the past month of CR1's inteview dates from the 001 forum with their wait times in format of date of Interview, number of days from P3 to Interview, number of days from P3 to P4. What they are reporting for a P3, is unknown. I don't think it is time to panic yet. 06/01/05 182 147 06/06/05 133 96 06/10/05 225 186 06/13/05 205 176 06/13/05 205 176 06/16/05 219 192 06/16/05 169 135 06/16/05 169 140 06/21/05 215 162 06/21/05 173 119 06/29/05 231 191 06/30/05 135 97

The new p4 list is making a new assumption. I am assuming that recent trends means there is going to be a jump in times, and I am unable to come up with a reasonable guess for this week. Instead, I put everyone for tomorrow (Which means for this week as that is what the average p4 date is, a Tuesday). We will have to wait for the week to see what happens, but I have changed the wait days accordingly as if you got the P4 tomorrow. If this does not happen, or there is no further drop in times, I will put this list back to the most recent data instead. Will you, wulongtea get a p4 tomorrow? I doubt it. Too soon, but I went with everyone anyway. If you look at last weeks list, you can see the date based on that data instead. The chart for my optimism, and the week is only starting. There is a total of 23 average days dropped from the beginning of the January P3's to the end. Usually it is two weeks or less. What I call the "crossover week" the third week is substantially different from before. This is the largest drop so far since June 2004. Of course this could just be randomness in the data, since I have to do a lot of projection. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3toInterviewsharpdrop.gif

Congratuations. Is it over again so soon? Another smoke? It was good for me too. Happy futures!

As it is now just over a year ago when people got their interview in less than two months total time from P3, and the history is that big changes means changes in time line. I have decide to change the P4 list this week to assume a new consulate, more room = faster processing time. We will change the P4 list back to a more reflective stepped version, as soon as we see which way the trend goes. Lets just say the optimism is on overdrive for this weeks list.

Before July P3 of 2004 , the average wait between P3 to P4 was 60 days or less. Simply put, before July 2004, the data is of no use to the current method they use today. Just as the data before that, which was horrible, has no usefulness of the list, which is where you are in relation to others. If I remember, there was a sudden halt to all interviews until they installed new equipment, hence the real concern we would see the same thing, while they move said equipment. I think we are seeing this won't be a problem. There is no yearly trend, only the trend from July until now, month to month. The point, is to those waiting for an interview. Before John and Hai Yan and a couple other people who did some lists, everyone was basically clueless as to what was happening, and speculation ran rampant. (This is only my opinion, because at the time, I wanted a better estimate of the likely interview, or more importantly, when I would know when the interview was, ie the P4. I felt that everyone was clueless, and hard numbers would be more satisfactory, to calm the fear of whether one should be getting a p4, or is one somehow delayed). Tracking, allows for a much better guess, as can easily be seen by those who now guess for themselves the likely date. Before we would extrapolate the increase in speed, but had dropped it back due to the slowdown. Next weeks list will again show speed up extrapolation, since they seem to be back onto the two week increase per month. Next up, a chart to compare CFL to 001 reporting, not everyone reports the same thing. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/001P3toP4.gif http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/001P3toInterview.gif http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/comparecflto001.gif

My opinion is the move, the holidays whatever, appear to have had an affect already, (December P3's) and now it is back to the previous trend of an average two week speed up per month. This is why I do the chart so it can be visualized more clearly, I hope.

DocMartin817, While the p4 to interview # of days are useful in determining a likely interview date on predictions, having them come two weeks before the interview has occurred before, so I would not give it any value without further additional changes. I say this because the assignment pattern from month to month continues to be the same. For example nousername is 141 days P3 to interview. Lourose before him is 156 days, and hlin after him is 144 days. As expected really. If we then take the data on wawafish, 120 days, this could seem unusual. But not when compared to the month to month pattern. Particularly when his P3 date entered is February. The ones before him are January. Based on last months pattern, I have you down as 05/31/05 for P4 and Interview date of 07/21/05. This would give 51 days notice. In the recent past, more than 60 days notice has occurred, so your inteview date I also project could be 07/27/05 as well for 59 days notice. This is because if next week is the switch over week for the month assignments, you could get the P4 next week instead and the Interview date would be pushed forward accordingly, because on average the first of each new inteview months assignments are made with the longest notice. (also note the holiday, so yours could push forward for this reason as well). This is based on the past 6 months. Because the assignment pattern, if you look at month to month beginnings and ends there is an average 15 day difference for total number of days from P3 to P4 .. However, if it ends up that your p4 shows around 140 to 145 days from p3, I would take this to mean the current trend continues. I can understand that a person or two getting an earlier P4 than expected would make one think there is a change, but this is also fairly regular as well, because of the appearance of the "last in first out" on the stack of papers, if they run out of one stack, they seems to go to the next stack and you get lucky. I was one of those. Three problems with this scenario. The first is your time line is not standard. (The time between received P3 and entered P4 is one of the longer ones). The second, is either the lack of people reporting their received P4's that are on the list to fill the gaps, or they haven't got one yet. Third, the usual not quite enough reports, and accurate dating of P3/P4 letters so having to extrapolate the gaps in the dates. And finally, what we see month to month is the attempt to get faster, in my opinion. Could they suddenly clear the calendar and assign all the K1/K3/CR1s? Of course we say yes, why not. But will they, afterall, our numbers are really quite small in comparison to everything else. I unfortunately know that so long as an agency can show a good show, we probably can not expect more. In the end, I think we will simply see more of the same trend, as they push the dates back towards the name check average completion time. No ones application is special, and they all go into the computer to be sorted out. There is too much to do it any other way. There is no question they are speeding up, look at the current chart.

While it is for a different country, I relied heavily on these two web pages to create my initial K1 application, which in my opinion determined the outcome of my fiance's interview. Some friends who are in the Thai circles also tell me this matters as well, how good the persons intial application determed how difficult their journey was. Make your intial application clean and easy to read. http://www.cebu4luv.com/fw/ Then after reading them, I then followed this: http://uscis.gov/graphics/fieldoffices/scn...nal/index.htm#H

Your name check completed on 03/03/05 is reasonable. Based on the few other name checks I have, your is 89 days projected. Within average. Previous data suggests that 90 days is the minimum allowed for the name check to be returned complete. If it comes back sooner, you still have to wait. If they are looking at the average times for when this gets completed, and recently I had thought it had dropped to 60 days, then it makes it possible for them to increase speed. This is part of the data I use to guessume a kickout date for the P4, since you clearly can't get an interview if you have not passed the name check. On another note, I would appretiate feedback on the P3 to Interview chart if it is not clear that things are speeding up. Maybe I am so used to looking at it, is seems obvious to me, at least for January P3's. But I should also note back in November, it was all speeding up to, then December lost time. Maybe they are making up for the holidays, the move, and the loss of four interview days a month. (Or is that a reconsolidation of all other interviews to Mondays, as what was rare is becoming common.)

Did you switch to the shorter line again? I would hope you get the same people handling it as xulei601, maybe get two interviews scheduled for the same day.

Sorry about causing confusion. The letter I am referring to is the one in the Packet 4 of what to bring to the interview. I was relating the idea, that although the list does not include everything, like an X-ray, I would and did bring it anyway to the interview. My second comment regarding the I-134, was to the one about the medical people asking for it. The I-134, and the "proof of relationship" is not required for the medical exam.

This is off of our "Letter to applicant" concerning medical stuff received in our P4. We are K1. Start Quote Please read the instructions carefully and prepare the following required documents for your visa: Medical Exam Report (DS-2053 and associated worksheets). No vaccinating required. End Quote Did we bring the X-ray? Yes. It also said "Proof of Relationship" So we brought our "proof" as well. Everything. What I am recommending, is to bring everything. It is a lot easier than going again. Concerning the I-134. I told my fiance that if they asked for it, tell them the petitioner is bringing it. It is not required that the medical people handle this document.

"July week 1 is about 150.. what does that mean in relation to July week 1?" If you read the title along the axis "# of days P3 to P4", this is the average number of days for that 1st week from the date of the P3 to the date of the P4. Possibly this is not clear with out monitoring the situation from month to month. But there is a pattern of how Guz sends out the P4's, month to month, week to week. I have to generalize the pattern from the data available, some of which is lacking. (Using less than 2 percent of all interviews to guess the rest) What I do is divide the month of each P3 series of dates into four weeks. 1st through 7th 8th through 14th 15th through 21st 22nd through end I average each week into one number. This is why there are four data points, one for each week. In the case of the last chart, I apply my MT theory to take out the holidays and weekends. I check this against my constant, of the previous data versus the current weeks P4's to see if the trend still holds true. How did I arrive at this formulation? I tried every method until there was a consistant pattern from month to month. I think this pattern is not quite correct, because as of yet, not everyone is reporting the same set of dates. This chart reflects me guessing these dates to correct for lack of data. I have tried creating a different sort of chart, but until I get more accurate dates, it always appears random. For example, I will post an old chart below of some data organized by interview dates instead. I am hopeful that Guz will suddenly speed up, thereby removing the need for accurate reporting. If you believe that, don't tell us the dates printed on your P3/P4. If you are a questioner of authority, a letter sender to DOS, or an emailer to Guz, send me the dates on your P3/P4 letters for everyone from now back to July 2004. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3P4Interview.gif http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3Interview.gif

Yes. The chart titled "From July2004 to January 2005 P3's" is the same two charts only each month after another. Two views of the same thing, P3 to P4 and P3 to Interview.

Because I like to see all the data I can on a chart, the P3 to P4 chart is proably looking crowded to some. Here is a version with the raw data removed, meaning I have removed the dotted lines leaving only the adjusted times. What am I adjusting for? For example, removing holiday dates. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/p3toP4Rawremoved18May05.gif

Thank you for the information updates everyone. Every little piece of information helps for the whole picture. As a reminder of what we are asking for, for those who have not told me, your dates actually printed on the P3/P4 letters in the top of the right hand corner of the letter. In case I have failed to mention this: Really.... Need.... Your dates actually printed on the P3/P4 letters in the top of the right hand corner of each letter. For people back to July of 2004 to now. New charts to compare to the ones above as the data rolls in. With more recent short notice interviews...could things move faster for next month? Or slow further? Two more weeks to find out.... http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3toP418May05.gif http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3toInterview18May05.gif http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/JunetoJanCFL18May05.gif

I just looked at the form version P4 letter that is in the P4 download in the FAQ section and see it is different from what we got (The one that tells you what to bring, not the letter telling you of your interview). In the download, it is longer, and does say to bring the letter saying you need an examination and instructions on GIV-8. Our P4 form letter is shorter, and does not say this, nor is there mention of a GIV-8. I also notice on the request for the police certificate, here is the wording: Notorial Police Certificate. Each applicant aged 16 or over must submit a police certificate. Police certificates are valid for one year. Different wording.

Actually the office that is being referred to is the consulate. The medical exam people asked to see it, but I have no indication that it is required. However, the same letter also says: Please see the enclosed information for further instruction about the medical examination required for all intending immigrants. Be sure to read all of the enclosed information and follow the instructions very carefully. I should also mention my rules governing government papers. If I sign it, or if it passes through my hands and I don't have a copy, make a copy and keep it. Fortunately my fiance understands this rule. Which is why I have a copy of the P3/P4 package as sent to her. Does the medical instructions have this requirement for the letter? I will look, but I do know someone else has previously posted the same thing, they asked for the letter.

Here is the wording on the relevent section of our P4 letter: This letter must be presented upon your arrival at this office on the appointment date.

Sorry about that typo, meant to say that my fiance had to have this letter at her medical because they asked to see it, and the guard asked for it as well standing in line at the consulate the day of the interview.. The medical as Docmartin817 says. We met a couple who had done theirs previously in Shanghai, whereas we did it in Guangzhou. Need to allow time for this, even with same day fees, because we saw someone who could not get this because they were too busy.

Congratulations, I am glad that you can now move on with your life together.