Randy W Posted September 13, 2005 Report Share Posted September 13, 2005 Randy,The date you have for the P3 was that the date Dept of State noted? I am just wondering because DOS said they received our electronic on 1 June- but GUZ doesn't recognize until July? What's the word on this. Which date should I go with? Thanks HW153527[/snapback] We have a whole range of P2 to P3 dates, from P2 on April 11, to entered in computer on or around August 12. Our application was forwarded to the GUZ on April 25, and accepted by the GUZ on June 9. My SO received the P3 on June 22, and returned it on June 24. SHe left a field blank instead of entering "None", so it was bounced back to her on July 15 (although there was never any indication that they actually mailed it back). She got a new form in in late July, which languished in the Swan Hotel until it was entered in the computer around August 12. I think the projections assume that the relevant date is the first P3 date (around June 22). Our entire timeline is about 1 week behind ed_and_ying's, so that may have spilled us over into the November wave, instead of the October wave that they rode. We'll find out when we get there!! I haven't gotten any information from the DOS beyond the April25 date that it was sent to the GUZ. Link to comment
Timeline Posted September 13, 2005 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2005 09/12/05 - 11:25 PM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1). P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)singularis67 : AddedDennis143 : AddedMeidon : Addedshyaushu : AddedUpdated various members : Modification I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
sailorboy Posted September 13, 2005 Report Share Posted September 13, 2005 Hey Mark, What happened??? Did I get booted or something? Could you put me back on list? Thanks. Dave Link to comment
Dennis143 Posted September 13, 2005 Report Share Posted September 13, 2005 Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table Some thoughts: Ten members have not received their P4 letter as of this time, which is later than the projected P4. While three are on the "fringe" between October and November, seven of the remaining ten are outside of the expected variance. They had expected interview dates in September. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This brings the "2nd name check" issue to the surface. Like many other members, I believe the "2nd name check" is the final requirement before the consulate placess the case in line to be scheduled for an interview. Again, like many other members, I believe "most" applicant "2nd name checks" are completed within a normal time period. Of coure this is no comfort to the applicant whose "2nd name check" has not been completed within a "normal" time period (2 - 6 weeks). This permits us to predict P4/Interview dates based on the P3 date. For most members the P3 date is the date most readily available. The "2nd name check" complete date is more difficult to obtain, and many members do not record this date. What we can deduce from the limited amount of data available, is that no member (that I know of) with a "2nd name check" completed date after June 2005 has been scheduled for an interview. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I believed the process was slowly but surely improving (getting shorter) and not getting longer (from P3 to P4). Only time and more data points will tell if the process will continue to improve. I have a slightly more agressive prediction formula (using the more recent data), but will not implement this, until I see next month's round of P4s. Base on this recent decrease in P3 - P4 time, I believe some of the projected December interviews will fall in November. I have changed the projected P4/Interview date formula due to the following conditions: 1. New information (data points)2. Using a different sampling period (we currently use a three month running average) This formula update has only slightly modified (shortened) the P3 - P4 time periods. I have adjusted the P4 date to reflect, the approximately five working days each month that the P4 letter is actually generated. Based on recent past history, I have chosen the last three days and first two weekdays of the prior month(s) before the month of interview to project the P4 date. For example: for interviews scheduled in November of 2005 the P4 dates are : September 28, 29, 30 and October 3, 4. I hope this method better reflects the Consulate's actual process. I have not changed the projected Interview date only the projected P4 date. The adjusted P4 date should better reflect "actual" P4 dates. A word of caution, if a member is close to the end/beginning of the monthly cycle, then the Prediction can be off by approximately one month !!! Only interviews schedule after September have the adjusted information. And unlike the Consulate, I have projected the Interview date based on earlier P3 date = earlier Interview date. I realize the Consulate fills up the monthly interview dates using a different method, but since I do not have access to this, I will use the "first in", "first out" method. I must update members on the table with new information and add members who are not on the table but now have P3 data. I know there are many more members who should be included on the Prediction Table, so please PM me if you have new information on your case. Thanks !!! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ..------------------------- Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table ---------------------------............................................-----Projected-----............CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type..Comments..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------""...........Chad&Tong.............10/04/04..../../......./../..................K1....."...........June03................01/11/05..../../......./../...........................---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" August....huang.................03/22/05..07/04/05...08/18/05...149....104...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" September.baogg.................02/14/05..07/19/05...09/06/05...204....155...CR1...."...........billv.................04/02/05..07/22/05...09/07/05...158....111...K1....."...........joenamy...............04/09/05..08/01/05...09/15/05...159....114...CR1...."...........Jocelyn...............04/20/05..08/01/05...09/19/05...152....103...DCF...."...........jbray.................04/28/05..08/12/05...09/28/05...153....106...DCF...CR1"...........rthomas...............04/27/05..08/12/05...09/29/05...155....107...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" October...lisyzheng.............04/28/05..08/30/05...10/11/05...166....124...K3....."...........tenfootalbino.........05/02/05..08/30/05...10/12/05...163....120...CR1...."...........blsqueaky.............05/19/05..09/02/05...10/27/05...161....106...IR1...Name check require"...........RJZ+JCW...............05/24/05..09/02/05...10/31/05...160....101...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" November..Linbar................04/12/05..09/28/05...11/01/05...203....169...CR1...."...........audelair..............05/27/05..09/28/05...11/03/05...160....124...K1....Austraiia DCF"...........Mengxin...............06/04/05..09/29/05...11/10/05...159....117...CR1...."...........mlspyl................06/04/05..09/29/05...11/10/05...159....117...CR1...."...........UtahMale49............06/04/05..09/29/05...11/10/05...159....117...CR1...."...........Sarah1031.............06/13/05..10/03/05...11/21/05...161....112...DCF...CR1"...........Randy_W...............06/24/05..10/03/05...11/23/05...152....101...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" December..eeyore................05/09/05..10/28/05...12/05/05...210....172...CR1...."...........raineedaze............07/15/05..10/31/05...12/15/05...153....108...K3....."...........Tian9426..............07/22/05..11/01/05...12/20/05...151....102...K1....."...........markdannie............07/16/05..11/01/05...12/22/05...159....108...CR1...."...........Toad..................07/23/05..11/02/05...12/27/05...157....102...DCF...CR1"...........Jay...................07/18/05..11/02/05...12/27/05...162....107...CR1...."...........HTW & QZ..............07/22/05..11/02/05...12/28/05...159....103...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" January...bubbafred10...........07/25/05..11/28/05...01/03/06...162....126...CR1...."...........goneflying2000........07/30/05..11/28/05...01/05/06...159....121...CR1...."...........singularis67..........08/03/05..11/29/05...01/10/06...160....118...K1....."...........Meidon................08/18/05..11/30/05...01/16/06...151....104...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" February..Dennis143.............09/02/05..12/28/05...02/02/06...153....117...K1....."...........Carl..................07/21/05..12/29/05...02/09/06...203....161...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" March.....shyaushu..............08/18/05..01/31/06...03/09/06...203....166...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------" (#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)Color code for K1/K3/CR1/IR1 P3 or DS-230 at Guangzhou (Top color most accurate) brown.: K1/K3 = P3 received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)......: CR1 ..= Case received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)blue..: K1/K3 = P3 sent to Guanghou or received by Guangzhou.......: CR1 ..= Case forwarded by the NVC to Guangzhou. (IVR automated message from NVC)green.: K1/K3 = P3 received by CFL member or date on P3 letter.......: CR1 ..= Case completed by the NVC. (IVR automated message from NVC) Mark152459[/snapback]Your prediction for our interview just went from 1/11/06 to 2/2/06. I would like to understand why it is being pushed out, when the consulate seems to be running much more efficient now. Link to comment
Timeline Posted September 13, 2005 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2005 (edited) 09/13/05 - 06:00 PM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)Steve & Qingqing : Passed interview. Congratulations !!! P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)sailorboy : Added back in (Sorry !!!). Just checking to see if anyone paid attention. Dennis143 : For a K1 we base predictions on one of three possible P3 dates: Color code for K1 P3 at Guangzhou (Top color most accurate)brown.: K1/K3 = P3 received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)blue....: K1/K3 = P3 sent to Guanghou or received by Guangzhou.green.: K1/K3 = P3 received by CFL member or date on P3 letter.So the first prediction for your case was based on a green P3 date of 08/03/05 with a projected interview date of 01/11/06.The second prediction for your case was based on a blue P3 date of 09/02/05 with a projected interview date of 02/02/06. My historical averages show that the average time from receipt of P3 packet to return and arrival of the packet at the consulate is 5 days. So when I estimate the additional time between green P3 and blue P3, I use 5 days. In your case the intervening time was 30 days. Since your time was more than the historical average, your projected interview date slipped by three weeks (22 days, which is approxiamately equal to the 25 day difference). My historical averages show that the average time from arrival of the packet at the consulate to packet "entered into the computer" is 4 days. So when I estimate the additional time between blue P3 and brown P3, I use 4 days. I prefer the brown P3, case "entered into the computer", because it is the most accurate for P4/interview projections and places everyone (K1/K3/CR1) at a common starting point. In addition, I believe the consulate "starts the counter on the P4" when the case is "entered into the computer". The green P3 and blue P3 dates leave room for error, if a member's processing of the P3 packet does not align with the historical average. ThanksMark Edited September 14, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history) Link to comment
aquach Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 Yes my SO just gave me the great news ... another pass. Link to comment
Timeline Posted September 14, 2005 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 09/14/05 - 12:45 AM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)aquach : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!rthomas917 : Interview date added.F & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3). I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
bearbear Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 According to the info I'm giving, could I be added to the timeline prediction? Link to comment
ohioboy Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 please add me to the pass list cr-1, 9-14-2005 thanks Link to comment
Timeline Posted September 15, 2005 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2005 09/15/05 - 12:30 AM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)chinashawn : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!ohioboy : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!F & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3). I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
Mengxin Posted September 15, 2005 Report Share Posted September 15, 2005 Thanks for moving us up a week, even if you couldn't keep us up with Ed and Ying. Seriously, though, we appreciate your good work and find it very helpful.153501[/snapback]Randy,The date you have for the P3 was that the date Dept of State noted? I am just wondering because DOS said they received our electronic on 1 June- but GUZ doesn't recognize until July? What's the word on this. Which date should I go with? Thanks HW153527[/snapback]Yea, I got the same thing. Took 2 months between the time NVC mailed my app to the time GZ says they recieved it. DOS told me GZ requested 2nd name check a day after GZ replied that they still haven't recieved our app from NVC yet. What ever date DOES NOT work in your favor. That's the one to use. Don't bother contacting GZ. (BS answers) Just call DOS. (accurate and friendly support.) Link to comment
Timeline Posted September 17, 2005 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2005 09/17/05 - 01:30 AM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)SongDaJiang : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!F & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)tlondon : Addedouyyp : AddedChinky : Added I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
HTW & QZ Posted September 17, 2005 Report Share Posted September 17, 2005 09/17/05 - 01:30 AM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)SongDaJiang : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!F & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)tlondon : Addedouyyp : AddedChinky : Added I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark154802[/snapback]MarkCorrection onHTW & QZ our P3 receipt date to GUZ was 7/18/05 Thanks Link to comment
mylove69 Posted September 18, 2005 Report Share Posted September 18, 2005 Please add my name to the timeline 153385[/snapback]Hello Your visa process is so fast! Congradulations!! I sumbited I-129 on 1st July, and I recevied NOA1 on 31th Aug, why did it take so long? I checked the USCIS website with my receipt number, it shows they are processing the files received on 13th Aug. I am so anxious to know when my files will be approved. Any advices? Thanks. Link to comment
HanLi Posted September 20, 2005 Report Share Posted September 20, 2005 I'm starting to worry, it has been over 2 weeks since the NVC received my P-3 Link to comment
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