keelec

This article seems to have some of the ideas I was considering. http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3213&...quence=2&from=0 One of the issues that the article doesn't discuss is that currently social security runs somewhat like a savings (but not nearly as well managed). The more one pays in, the more one gets out. I.E. If one person averages 20K / yr during the working years, the social security payment will be far lower than the person who averages 80K / yr. However, the person with the higher income during the working years likely has more assets and savings, and thus is less dependent on social security. One of the first things that I see will get cut is those individuals who have private savings to suppliment social security will get far fewer benefits from the government. ------ Clifford ------ Issues to Consider in Reforming Social Security Several aspects of the Social Security program and its outlook as the population ages are especially important in considering changes to the program. First, throughout its long history, Social Security has had multiple goals--some related to redistributing income among or within generations, others related to providing insurance to offset lost earnings. Policymakers will need to decide whether those goals are still appropriate and, if so, how changes to Social Security would aid or hinder the achievement of those goals and would affect various types of beneficiaries and taxpayers. Those decisions will also need to take into account the dramatic increase in the elderly population that is expected in coming decades. Second, issues about how to prepare for an aging population ultimately concern the amount of goods and services the economy will produce and how they will be distributed, not how much money is credited to the Social Security trust funds. In that sense, the projected depletion of those funds--which is the focus of much of the popular debate about Social Security's future--is irrelevant. The challenge of adjusting to an aging population would need to be faced even if the trust funds never existed. Third, deciding how to prepare for an aging population is likely to require weighing the interests of today's workers and Social Security beneficiaries against the interests of future workers and beneficiaries. No matter how it is packaged, any plan to increase national saving today means that the U.S. population will consume fewer goods and services now so that consumption can be greater in the future, when a larger share of the population is retired. Gone are the days when expansion of the labor force could pay for the growth of Social Security benefits. As the Congress looks at policy changes, one consideration is that future workers and Social Security beneficiaries are likely to have higher standards of living, on average, than current workers and beneficiaries do, because of future increases in productivity. Strategies for Preparing the Nation The 107th Congress has inherited Social Security reform as a major item on its agenda. Like previous Congresses, it faces projections that payments from the government to the elderly will rise sharply as a share of the economy over the next 30 years. Spending more on the elderly may be appropriate given the large increase in the older population, but questions can be raised about how much that spending should rise. Policymakers have many goals, but if they want to limit the growth of spending on the elderly as a share of the economy, they can do so in only two ways: either by slowing the growth of total payments to the elderly or by increasing the rate of growth of the economy. Different options for reform would have different effects on economic growth. To the extent that they boosted the future size of the economy and increased the nation's accumulation of assets, they could lessen the burden on future workers of government programs that serve the elderly. In essence, the accumulation of assets "prefunds" the future spending of retired baby boomers (as explained in Box 2). That action would reduce the relative costs of an aging population to future generations by reducing payments to retirees as a share of the economy. Policymakers could attempt to increase the size of the economy in several ways: by running budget surpluses or promoting private saving (which can make more funds available for investment in business equipment, structures, and other types of capital); by changing tax and regulatory policies to improve the efficiency of the economy or to boost people's incentives to work or improve their skills; or by spending money on government programs that are oriented toward investment rather than current consumption. In addition, some changes to the Social Security program could have positive effects on economic growth. For example, cutting future benefits might create incentives for workers to save more. Chapter 4 of this report focuses on three strategies that have generated a lot of public attention: saving budget surpluses and using them to pay down federal debt; using those surpluses to create private retirement accounts; and making changes to the benefits or revenues of the current Social Security program. Those various approaches are not mutually exclusive; they could be combined in any number of ways. Save Budget Surpluses One strategy for preparing for the needs of an aging population is to preserve the federal government's annual budget surpluses and pay down the federal debt. If the government continues to spend less than it receives in revenues, it can increase national saving (if private saving does not fall to offset the government's saving), boost the stock of private capital, and expand the future size of the economy. By saving the surpluses, policymakers would have more flexibility for dealing with unexpected developments, and future workers could be better prepared to bear the heightened burden of making payments to an aging population. CBO projects that if current laws and policies do not change, surpluses would be large enough to pay off all of the federal debt available for redemption by 2010.(3) What would happen after that? If laws restricting the Treasury's current investment choices were modified, any further surpluses could be used to buy nonfederal assets, such as stocks and bonds. Although asset accumulation could increase the funds available for capital investment and boost economic growth, it would be unprecedented for the federal government to hold a large stock of private assets. The possibility of such holdings raises questions. Would it be appropriate for the government to own and possibly control private companies? Could the government's involvement distort market signals and corporate decisionmaking?(4) Questions have also been raised about whether using surpluses to pay down debt and accumulate assets is politically realistic. Would policymakers refrain from spending more or cutting taxes further and allow the government to pay off its debt and build up private assets? Recent experience creates some doubts on that score. Although the government has paid down debt over the past few years, federal spending has also been growing faster than inflation. This year, the President and the Congress enacted the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001--which will reduce tax revenues by a total of almost $1.35 trillion between 2001 and 2011--and policymakers are considering other proposals that would further reduce projected surpluses. Create Private Accounts A second strategy is to use part of the budget surpluses to pay for the creation of private retirement accounts. Proposals for private accounts differ in many ways, but they share a common feature: the income from an account that would be available to a worker at retirement would depend on the payments made into the account and the rate of return on the account's assets during the person's working life. Many types of accounts are possible, and their effects would vary widely. Supporters argue that using budget surpluses to finance the creation of private accounts could provide many of the same economic benefits as saving the surpluses, without the potential problems of having the government own shares in private companies. In essence, proponents would shift control of part of the surpluses from the government to individuals. How much of those surpluses would a system of private accounts absorb? The answer would depend on the details of the proposal, but the amount could be large. For example, creating a system of private accounts that was based on contributions of 2 percent of workers' earnings could cost about $1 trillion over 10 years.(5) Some people argue that private accounts would offer higher rates of return than the traditional Social Security system does, but that argument can be misleading. Social Security has a low rate of return largely because initial generations received benefits far greater than the payroll taxes they paid. That difference would have to be made up even if the Social Security system was entirely replaced by private accounts. Moreover, investing in the stock market (either through private accounts or through government purchases of stock for the Social Security trust funds) is no panacea. Simply raising the average rate of return on assets by taking on more risk would not change the economic fundamentals. Only if the accounts increased national saving and enlarged the economy would they reduce future burdens. Their impact on national saving would depend on how the accounts affected both government and private saving. In setting up a system of private accounts, policymakers would have to address many practical issues. How much would the system cost to administer? Would it provide insurance against downturns in the stock market? How would it handle benefits for workers' families, for survivors of deceased workers, and for disabled workers? Would the system give subsidies to people with low income and intermittent work histories? How would the system be regulated and investors informed? Some of the answers to those questions could have implications for the economy. For example, government guarantees that people would receive a minimum level of retirement income in the event of a market downturn would probably reduce national saving below what it would be without those guarantees. And subsidies to low-income workers that were phased out as wages rose could impose implicit taxes on work and could discourage some people from working more. Make Programmatic Changes A third approach is to modify the current Social Security program. Changes that have been proposed include reducing benefits (for example, by raising the retirement age, lengthening the period over which benefits are computed, or reducing annual cost-of-living adjustments) or increasing payroll taxes. The effect on the economy would depend on the particular type of change. Other things being equal, reducing benefits might be more likely to increase the size of the economy than raising payroll tax rates, which could lessen people's incentives to work. Economic models suggest that many types of benefit reductions could increase the size of the economy in the long run because they could encourage some people to save more. However, those long-term gains could take a couple of decades to materialize fully. How the benefit cuts would affect the economy in the near term is uncertain. Slowing the growth of Social Security benefits would most likely reduce the lifetime resources of some transitional generations. However, it could also raise the wages of later generations and reduce their tax burdens. If benefits are to be cut, changing the law now rather than later would give workers time to adjust their plans for saving and retirement.

Ok, here is the "Crash" that is going to hit us. http://www.cbo.gov/docimages/321301.gif Notice between 2010 and 2030, the ratio from "retired" and "workers" to shift from about 20% to 40%. If social security is to continue to be funded as it is now, then a much bigger chunk of my wages will have to go out to Social Security..... Here is a shorter prediction of the expected increase in spending which I presume independent of or otherwise adjusted for inflation (without significantly increasing the population that will be paying for it). It is unlikely that the spending will peak for another 5 to 10 years after the end of the chart. http://www.cbo.gov/docimages/321302.gif Ok, around 2015, if we keep similar spending, the cost of social security will exceed income. And, this deficit spending could potentially continue forever, until the coffers are empty. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR03/images/II_project_IID6.gif Ok, here is a picture of the likelihood of when Social Security will crash. I guess I don't have to worry about anything beyond 2070 because I will likely be too old to care at that time. However, if it crashes between 2030 and 2050, it would definately make a difference to me. And, of course, the next generation will be hurting. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR03/images/VI_stochastic_VIE1.gif Perhaps the big issue is whether there is or will actually be any money left in the SS trust fund in 2010 when we will start needing it, or if the REPUBLICANS will have already emptied the trust fund.... Thus, leading to a much earlier crash (sorry, I had to add that in). See the attached reports for some interesting graphs and discussions (I looked at the pictures and didn't read all of the text).http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3213&sequence=2&from=0 http://www.kc.frb.org/spch&bio/colorado200...orumsco03pp.pdf http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR03/II_project.html http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR03/VI_stochas...ic.html#wp94108

At least someone in our govt has figured out that we can't always cut taxes and increase spending and balance the budget..... MR. BUSH, PLEASE READ !!!!!!!

The idea is to set something up so she could easily give me something "special", just for fun....... Perhaps what needs to be done is to setup a selection of potential gifts just like the agency has a selection of 20 different chocolates, flower arrangements, stuffed animals, etc to give the women (except, we can leave the stuffed animals off from the gifts for men). Maybe a "good" screwdriver set or something like that could be added to the list. ----- Clifford -----

Ok, as many of you know, I met Irina through an Introductions Agency called Virginia / Maksim’s in Yoshkar-Ola, Russia. I know that dating agencies may be a controversial subject, but that is beside the point of this. The agency provides services for both the men and the women including translating letters, arranging tours, giving gifts, finding short term apartment rentals, and etc, all at a hefty fee (at least a 100% markup on everything). They also have English classes, and perhaps even connections to a driving school. This is all generally geared to Americans or Europeans (who have money) giving stuff to their foreign loves. Anyway, a year ago the agency offered coupons for photos. Essentially, a man could purchase a photo-shoot coupon for $10 or so. The coupons would then be presented to the woman as if she could purchase a special studio photo-shoot and send the pictures to her boyfriend/fiancée for a much reduced rate of $1 or so. I am not sure how successful the program was as I haven’t heard about it since then, or whether the women eventually figured out how the coupons were being paid for. Actually, I am surprised the Agency doesn’t offer it as part of the correspondence fees, but their goals are making MONEY!!! Anyway, I was thinking about asking the agency if they still had a similar program. However, I was wondering what kind of “gifts” would be appropriate? A new table saw from Home Depot might be nice, but not very practical. I am not a big flower bouquet fan. Perhaps chocolates could be sent to either work or home (mail or delivery). Ideas or suggestions would be helpful. Thanks, Clifford

thanks mark! it didn't seem like even this point would EVER come, i can't imagine what it will feel like just one week from now! i do venture in there (rumpus room) every now and then! cant go too much because of SOME of the things y'all choose to talk about!!! you men, i tell ya!! hehe anyway, yea, i can ramble with the best 'em!! Well, We know that Kim has ventured into the "Du" topic in the RR once in a while, although I don't remember seeing her name come up with any blond jokes yet. I can't imagine that sitting around discussing politics, religion, and Sci-Fi, and any combination of the three would be exclusive to men. However, maybe I will add a topic just for Kim & Mari Anyway, I am sure the interview will go just fine and everything will be on-track for a wonderful wedding this spring!!!!! ----- Clifford -----

Congratulations!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It is about time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Did you bring the youngster to the interview? Best Wishes, Clifford

Damian, Congratulations about passing step 2 in the process. Only 3 more steps left (P3, P4, Interview & Visa). Rumor has it that HK is speedy (relatively speaking). Prepare early, and best of luck to you, ----- Clifford -----

Bumma, You could probably sign something requesting the police certificate and ask your boyfriend to try to get it for you. Or, perhaps your boyfriend could arrange a conference call between you and the police departments closest to previous residences and they might be able to mail the certificates to you. Start early, but not before your application finishes at BCIS and gets shipped to NVC (which generally is 4-6 months before the interview). I assume that the US records wouldn't be a big deal because the INS should do an inquiry about previous criminal records either while the application is at the BCIS office or NVC office. ----- Clifford -----

P.J. I have been wondering what has happened to you. I hope you have a wonderful trip back to China. As far as the Candle. I guess I am not quite sure how it is all configured, but I am surprised you can't shut it down for a weekend (or stop updates), download the whole 100 MB, manipulate the data locally, then reupload the freshly pruned database. Best Wishes, Clifford

Ok, I presume that they will be modeling this after the "Russia" system. In Russia, there is a 1-800 number to call the call center from the USA. I belive that the charges don't start until one has a "live person" on the line which is usually in a couple of minutes. I believe that the operator was Russian and not American. Thus she had good English skills, but was heavily accented. The problem with the system is that the operators have very limited information, and apparently they have no way to follow up on a single case. Thus, I was told to send an e-mail to the embassy (which, of course, did absolutely nothing). I eventually found the main phone number to the Embassy and asked to be transfered to the consul general's office, or to the consular section. This provided more useful information, but still did not solve my problem. Presumably the call center has relieved a large amount of call volume load from the Embassy, and thus calling the Embassy directly may be easier for those extreme cases that need extra attention. ----- Clifford ------

This sounds very much like Russia's system (which is a miserable failure from the customer service point of view). They could probably cut the call volume by 3/4 by implementing a web interface with informative status information. And, of course pick up and start processing the applications immediately when they arrive in China from NVC. My issues with the Russian system are as follows: 1) They subcontract out the call service. They provide general status info to these subcontractors. However, there is absolutely no place to esculate the call or any way to ask for more information or clarifications because the operators can just read what is on their computer terminal and have no additional information about the case. (of course, all of this information should be provided on the WWW and eliminate the call center all together). 2) Of course, the cost is excessive. I think it was about $2 / minute to be told absolutely nothing and get absolutely no help. 3) Although it will reduce the call volume, the main purpose seems to be to insulate the Consulate from having to actually deal with the people. I guess my point is that the toll system is fine for status updates, but there is absolutely no way for them to actually deal with "problems". So, as in my case where my application has been stuck in Moscow for 6 months, the telephone operators can do absolutely nothing to help me resolve the problem other than tell me that the application is currently under "Additional Administrative Processing", and has been there for 6 months. It wasn't until I actually tracked down the main number for the Embassy that I discovered that they Embassy had referred to DOS for additional information and was awaiting the reply back from the good old USA. I think they should evalutate fixing the issues that are causing the calls rather than trying to eliminate the calls. Although, I do wonder about the rebound effect in call volume as any news gets posted on this BBS. On the flipside, in general, Russia has supposed to have gotten more efficient with their visa process. Note, this is a general statement as plenty of individuals still fall through the cracks in the system. Perhaps this will take some load off of the people answering phones and allow them to be dedicated to opening applicaitons. And, of course, it brings in a little money too. Time to answer the phone was quick when I called. I think the answer was almost immediate after listening through all the long menu prompts. ----- Clifford ------

I noticed the same thing in Russia as I was trying to unravel Irina's extended family. Mother, Father, Aunt, and Uncle were generally clear. However, the parents of an aunt or uncle might introduced as "grandparents", as well as cousins being introduced as brothers, especially if it was a close relationship. ----- Clifford ----

I thought I remember reading earlier that some people tried multiple times to get inlaws to come. While rejections are frustrating and heartbreaking, they apparently don't have a lot of bearing on later applications. And, some visas were issued after a half a dozen attempts. There may not be a reason to wait unless one thinks some of the new BS from our government is spewing out will actually reflect reality, and they will start encouraging people to come (with the expectation that they would later leave). ----- Clifford -----

What about "Dog".... Perhaps that is a "black" nickname, but it goes with the last name too..... Think of all the posibilities. Dog Du Sorry I couldn't resist..... Anyway, I wish you the best of luck with picking out future names. It should be kind of fun. ----- Clifford -----

Kim, I would suggest using Jake/Jacob as your fiance's nickname. It would be the name you would introduce him to friends as. Since it is similar to his name, Jiayou, you could probably use it without a formal name change. I am not sure about banking and such things, but you can certainly sign a check however you want. As far as the last name. Kim & Jake Du That sounds fine. The name is simple enough that it shouldn't be an issue for people to pronounce or remember. And, there is certainly no need to renounce all past cultures. I still think you should also consider keeping your maiden name rather than making up a new last name. In that case, I presume all you would have to do is put the correct last name on the marriage license. ----- Clifford -----

I don't remember seeing anything in the docs about a requirement for either a passport or birth certificate from the American fiance at the interview. All of that stuff was reviewed in the USA and is not needed later. It is all about the Chinese person at that the time of the interview (except the I-134). ----- CK ------

I don't know about China (or the US Consulate), but here in the USA, a copy of the certificate made by the hospital where one was born is considered to be an "Original". A notarized copy of the birth certificate is also treated essentially the same as an "original". ----- Clifford ------

One thing to keep in mind is that I believe that the social environment from college is a tremendous benefit. If you take online courses, you will sit at home, meet very few people (except over the internet), and nto practice English. If you enroll in classes either at the University or a Community College, you will meet many new friends, and speak English all day long. You might even learn more about the US Culture (or other cultures). My vote would be to figure out a way to enroll in regular classes. ----- Clifford -----

Unfortunately, when they tried to divide Rhode-Island, Connecticut, Vermont and New Hampshire into counties, they had troubles fitting too many counties the size of Malheur, OR and San Bernadino, CA into the states. Of course, that is assuming the idea was to have the counties inside of the states rather than the states inside of the counties, as well as avoiding too many overlapping boarders. ----- Clifford ------

They still have web pages with both USCIS and BCIS on the same page..... https://egov.immigration.gov/graphics/cris/....jsp?textFlag=N I imagine that they are so busy trying to figure out what to call themselves that they don't have any time left to actually process any applications!!!!!

Of course, as with any rule, there are always exceptions!!!!!! Washington DC does not exist in any state, and I presume it doesn't have a county either. St. Louis is not in St. Louis County. As I understand it, it isn't in a county either. In the west, each state may have several large cities, but each county (except those in the big metro areas) has only one big city (or big town in some cases). I think the best description is the "State within a State" description. ------ Clifford -----

1882 The Chinese Exclusion Act prohibited certain laborers from immigrating to the United States. 1968 Act Eliminated immigration discrimination based on race, place of birth, sex and residence. It also officially abolished restrictions on Oriental immigration. 1976 Act Eliminated preferential treatment for residents of the Western Hemisphere. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hmmm, Doesn't this mean that the visa application and approval notice should be the same for all nations, rather than making it excessively long and cumbersome for some? ----- CK -----

Back in Feb or March of last year they changed their name to BCIS (Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration Services). It was moved under the US Department of Homeland Security. Last fall the web page changed to www.uscis.gov. US Citizenship and Immigration Services. There still seem to be lots of references to BCIS. It has never been clear if BCIS was over USCIS, or visa versa, or if the name was changed. I guess they just want to keep us guessing. I believe that the NVC and all of the Consulates fall under the Department of State. I think the intention is to keep everything as confused as possible, and make nobody responsible to doing an efficient job. ----- Clifford ------

I would welcome King Kong. What is the harm of giving a few helpful ideas. There is very little that could be said here that couldn't be found by looking back through the archives on this board, or elsewhere, or returning to the consulat and asking. I would guess that a relationship could be faked, but here we can limit the discussions to what an American and a Chinese person would normally go through. I don't see anything particularly provocative about his posts. Perhaps they could instill some fear in those people who are getting close to the interview, but as we all know, a late RFE at the interview does occasionally happen. Generally it is not the end of the world and all that one needs to do is to track down the necessary documentation. In this case, I would imagine that the interviewer picked up on something that would indicate a perceived need for relationship building. Perhaps King Kong hadn't visited his "fiancee" since the initial visit 1+ years ago. Perhaps she has difficulties with English. Maybe there was some concern in the tone of her voice. None of it is the end of the world. They just have to sit back, collect their thoughts, make a plan, and then fix everything. A trip back to China is definately a good step forward. ------ Clifford ------