New Interview/P3 list.

[nooneufo]

Congratulations to last weeks interviews and overcome interviews.

Let me know of changes and additions.

(actual P3 to P4 received is as reported, not corrected for Monday/Tuesday Theory)

We are not going to forget.

Delayed--------------P3----------Status?

Maui & China------06/27/04-------2nd name check delay

Mari--------------07/15/04-------2nd name check delay

Jpj936------------08/06/04

Alex-----------------------------12/08/04 Interview/Blue slip/Case review

 

Waiting to hear about these people. Let us know what happened.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

Ahhming-----------07/16/04---11/30/04---01/27/05---195-------137---------??------???------Blue/Pending

rogerluli---------10/22/04---02/22/05---03/09/05---138-------123---------K1------No-------Blue/Pending

Mike Xiao---------10/28/04---02/08/05---03/11/05---134-------103-----K3/CR1/CR2--Yes------Blue/Processing Review

 

Listed by upcoming Interview.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slip

Redling-----------09/01/04---01/24/05---03/16/05---196-------145--------K3-------No-------White

BobandNicole------08/28/04---01/28/05---03/17/05---201-------153---DCF--K3-------Yes------White

Drew21------------09/23/04---01/25/05---03/21/05---179-------124--------K1

NYViking----------09/22/04---02/10/05---03/22/05---181-------141--------K1

sting88-----------09/26/04---01/28/05---03/22/05---177-------124--------K1

Beijingjenny------09/14/04---02/15/05---03/23/05---190-------154Preg/DCFK3

Mike_M------------09/21/04---02/07/05---03/23/05---183-------139--------K1

John & Hai Yan----09/03/04---01/25/05---03/24/05---184-------126--------K1

beijingjj---------??/??/??---??/??/??---03/25/05---???-------???--------K3

James & Veronica--10/13/04---02/09/05---03/25/05---163-------119--------??

Yave20B-----------09/25/04---01/25/05---03/28/05---184-------122--------K1

AnimatorMark------09/21/04---01/25/05---03/29/05---189-------126--------K1

Yvonne & Stan-----09/21/04---01/24/05---03/31/05---191-------124--------K1

Amberzhu----------09/29/04---01/31/05---03/31/05---183-------124--------K1

MRMC--------------11/??/04---03/16/05---04/06/05---???-------112--------K1/K2

G-man-------------11/21/04---03/14/05---04/11/05---141-------113--------K1

BandJ-------------10/31/04---02/28/05---04/12/05---163-------120--------K1

boba--------------11/17/04---03/14/05---04/14/05---148-------117--------K1

njbernie----------11/02/04---03/02/05---04/15/05---164-------120--------K1

jual_3------------??/??/??---02/28/05---04/18/05---???-------98---------K1

nooneufo----------11/26/04---03/01/05---04/18/05---143-------95---------K1

larrynicholas-----11/16/04---03/01/05---04/21/05---156-------105--------K1

Dogfish-----------11/22/04---03/14/05---04/27/05---156-------112--------K1

cliff-------------11/20/04---02/28/05---04/28/05---159-------100--------K1

da64---Delayed----12/15/04---03/16/05---04/28/05---134--------91--------K1

 

Most Recently received P3 Interviews. Listed by P4.

CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days-----P3 to P4

jual_3------------??/??/??---02/28/05---04/18/05---???-------98

cliff-------------11/20/04---02/28/05---04/28/05---159-------100

larrynicholas-----11/16/04---03/01/05---04/21/05---156-------105

nooneufo----------11/26/04---03/01/05---04/18/05---143-------95

njbernie----------11/02/04---03/02/05---04/15/05---164-------120

Dogfish-----------11/22/04---03/14/05---04/27/05---156-------112

boba--------------11/17/04---03/14/05---04/14/05---148-------117

MRMC--------------11/??/04---03/16/05---04/06/05---???-------112

da64---Delayed----12/15/04---03/16/05---04/28/05---134--------91

G-man-------------11/21/04---03/14/05---04/11/05---141-------113

 

 

This list reflects my Monday/Tuesday theory and earliest guess.

November-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

Zingaro-----------10/28/04---03/21/05

yuan95------------11/11/04---03/21/05

 

December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

jgrier------------12/01/04---03/21/05

Squid-------------12/07/04---03/21/05

Chad&Tong---------12/07/04---03/21/05

dmaddox74---------12/07/04---03/21/05

jimglot-----------12/08/04---03/21/05

vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/21/05

hank--------------12/20/04---03/28/05

Markd-------------12/22/04---03/21/05

Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/21/05

DanR--------------12/29/04---03/28/05

Bahan-------------12/29/05---03/21/05

 

January--------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

Keith-N-Min-------01/05/05---04/04/05

lizziedannypie----01/05/04---04/04/05

melvin------------01/05/05---04/04/05

Liuxia's Husband--01/06/05---04/04/05

Feathers268-------01/07/04---04/25/05

nousername--------01/09/05---04/25/05

June03------------01/11/05---05/09/05

LouRose-----------01/11/05---04/25/05

inxy--------------01/15/05---05/09/05

krjchen-----------01/15/05---04/18/05

john90------------01/20/05---04/18/05

DocMartin817------01/28/05---05/09/05

Littleturtle------01/??/05---Need P3 in computer date

 

February--------------P3-------Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

benfanfan---------02/02/05---05/23/05

F & L-------------02/24/05---05/30/05

Jfong988----------02/25/05---05/30/05

vincent-----------02/25/05---05/30/05

pkfops------------02/26/05---05/30/05

 

March-----------------P3-------Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data

Ghostrider--------03/06/05---06/06/05

mild bill---------03/08/05---06/08/05

Menqxin-----------03/08/05---05/30/05

mlspyl------------03/10/05---05/30/05

alaskagypsy-------03/11/05---07/13/05

Chinese Wife!!!---03/11/05---05/30/05

 

If the P3 date listed is not the one in the computer at GZ, let me know it if you want a more accurate prediction. If it is the date you sent the P3, I would add a week or two.

(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)

Color code for K1 and K3 sending P3 to Guz(Top color most accurate)

Red = P3 entered in Computer

Blue = P3 received at GUZ

Green = P3 sent to GUZ

Pink = P3 received from GUZ

Orange = P3 uncertain

Color code for K3/CR1/IR1 sending ds-230 to NVC(Still working on accuracy, need more data)

Purple = Case Complete at NVC

Brown = DS-230 Sent to NVC or Received

Gray = DS-230 At GUZ from NVC

 

 

Thoughts on what the data shows.

As you know, I have put forth the idea that it appears P4's are sent out on a Monday or Tuesday, calling this my Monday/Tuesday Theory, or MT-Theory

(Because I am funny like that).

Although I have to back track a lot of time lines, (Thanks again to those who have gone back to update their time lines more completely for the past six

months), and with more time lines, I see the following pattern:

P3 arrives, is entered into the computer and put into a stack.

The stack sits.

At some point NVC says "Okay" on the computer.

The stack continues to sit untouched.

Then, right now, around 100 days later;

The computer beeps, the file that was last touched three months ago is sitting on top of the stack, is processed and a P4 happens.

The date of the interview was assigned either at this time, or possibly, back when it first went on the stack.

This might be why we see end of the month P3 dates with P4's first, and wider seperation of Interview dates.

The first week of every month is the highest P3 to P4 waits.

The fourth week of the month is the shortest P3 to P4 waits.

I am calling this theory the Reverse Order Theory Stack or ROTS for short.(Did I say I was funny like that?)

 

Based on the last four months, P4s appear to happen sooner by one week every month. This coincides with my theory that for Guangzhou to comply with the requirement that all visas will be processed start to finish within six months, that they have to follow a speeding up schedule. There is probably a chart on the wall. The P4 projections here now reflect that trend, meaning every month I have decreased the wait time accordingly for the predicted trend.

My thanks to the latest from Chinese Wife!!! and MarkD for thoughts on this list update.

[John & Hai Yan]

Thank You Nooneufo for all your work. You're doing a much better job than I ever did.

[kfman]

Thank You Nooneufo for all your work. You're doing a much better job than I ever did.      

Ditto, but much better then I even tried. Thanks. I also found out today, as my signature shows, that DOS stated namecheck completed, now just waiting for interview.. although the extremely nice lady on the phone (a rarity it seems), said there currently was not a projected interview yet...

 

I will stick with your time line.. let you know how close you are..

 

[nooneufo]

Bahan,

Okay I have changed yours to match the NVC Case Completed date. I am thinking that Chinese Wife!!! could be correct here, and so lets try that one instead, it moves it up a week.

My question is based on jgriers timeline, the difference or meaning of these two dates, are they the same, do they mean something different concerning K3 types as reported at NVC:

Background check completed

Case completed

If they are not the same, I am thinking that jgrier may have a longer wait. I will leave it for now pending some opinions to be optimistic. But I am thinking the wait date may start 01/18/05. Sorry about that.

[Feathers268]

Thanks man,

I like when you update the info because it seems our p4 date keeps being projected sooner each time. I'll let you know how close your pridiction comes, byt you might have to just listen for the jumping up and down and screaming.

[vibes1313]

Nice chart nooneufo. I can even see a Illinois/UConn final in it.

[mlspyl]

Nooneufo:

 

 

Fanatastic job at collecting, catergorizing, and analyzing all of our timelines !!!! This is useful for all of us at CFL. I hope you continue to receive more data points for us CR-1 / IR-`1s !!!

 

I think you may be a little early on my estimated P4. I was not clear in my timeline with DS-230 Entered into system by NVC.

 

I called the NVC and was told my DS-230 was received and it is under review (it should take 6 - 8 weeks, the standard message). So, I am thinking 3 - 4 weeks until case completion. I am about one month behind Richard. So,I am thinking the P4 would not arrive until September or October.

 

However I prefer your estimate much better than mine !!!!! I have not been paying close attention to timeframes from China (it is too depressing), but has timelines been decreasing during the past six months ??? This would be encouraging.

 

Thanks

Mark

[nooneufo]

lizziedannypie,

I have changed the user name to yours, since you are here and would like to see it I am sure.

Yes all the information you have is important. I note we dont know when your P3 was sent or when it was entered in the computer, all info helps.

 

mlspyl,

Oh no, and I was using your time line as one of my bench marks. Now I must erase it all and start over. Psych!

Since it is so far ahead, I'll leave it for now, but greatly appretiate the informative data.

The times are getting shorter. It is hard to be sure of P3 to interview times because what is needed from as many people as possible is the date the P3 is entered into the computer (For K1's). I think K3's follow this pattern, it is only a matter of pinning down which data point that matters. The trouble is that some K3 send their P3 to Guz, other to NVC. The ones who send to Guz seem to the same as K3, for the one or two I have. For the ones to NVC, we

need more info, but I see there is about 21 of you folks waiting, so we should be able to pin it down soon.

 

July average P3 to Interviews was 176 days.

November P3 to Interviews is 156 days.

Reduction of 20 days. It is probably more.

 

Using the P3 to P4 times provides a much better assessment. Since July to now, every month it is reduced a week. So I manually readjust everyones time line with more and more inaccurate guesses if they have not provided a computer entry date. Here are my rule notes:

 

All P4 work is done on a Monday or Tuesday. (It is possible that this is also for P3 input).

It takes an average of 10 days to enter the P3 on the computer from a reported P3 mailing.

Rarely is an interview Scheduled on a Monday From July to February 2004 most P4's are 120 +/- 5 days from P3, if you go back and adjust non-specific dates.

Reported dates to fit the above data profile. Those who report specific computer entries, all fit this profile.

Exceptions are some known K3, DCF filings, and Pregnancy. There appears to be a possible decrease in the MT dates to 100 +/- 5 day based on last four November P3's

Continued decrease is seven days per month, possibly fourteen for next month if numbers from 001 forum are accurate.

[Mengxin]

Thanks again for your effort. Way to crunch those stats. The #'s don't lie. I however, would apprieciate if you lied to me and crunched the dates closer together.

 

PS. Your own timeline is excellent. I'm jealous. I guestimated 6/8 and 9/5 for myself. That's of 06' with my luck.

 

Thanks also for decreasing your font size by the way. I see where your going with the whole Guzzard of Oz theme

[BobandNicole]

Nooneufe, somehow I think the days for Nicole and I get distorded or mis recored..

 

Orifinally filed CR-1 DCF guz

 

Submitted DS-130 to DHS August 23. Recieved the note that it went through DHS stuff about 2 days later, and recieved the P3 packet on Aug 28.

 

Because I wasn't expeting the P3 packet for another 3 months, I delayed sending the P3 information to GUZ on OCT 11, they recieved the next day

Then Recieved P4 on Jan 28.

Interview was March 17.

Becaue our 2 year wedding anniversary date is March 18, the day they actually entere the paperwork into the computer at 9:20 A.M., the computer majically changed the CR-1 to IR-1...go figure.

 

I don't want to scare away any other DCF filers with our timeline. Long timeline was due to my procrastination..

 

Bob

[lizziedannypie]

Hmm, here is a new one? I don't know if it matters much but we are DCF we are not K-1. Do you still think I can get my p4 in April 11th? I hope so. Thank you for your nice work.

 

Elizabeth

[G-man]

P4 Received.................April 11 interview. Holy *&%#@* !!! G-man & Luo

[nooneufo]

All right G-man!!!

Please let us know if your interview letter is dated the 14th or 15th.

 

lizziedannypie,

Looks very good for a possible04/12/05 P4 if this trend keeps up. However, I have decided that if it goes up in one month based on your new P3 date, we should also move the possible date up as well to the week before 04/04/05, which would make it 91 days instead. But if they make another jump, it could be a week before that as well, sine that is a month away. A lot can happen. Being optimistic.

 

BobandNicole,

Right, I had that corrected on my sheet but not here. Even though it is DCF, the time for P4 fits the profile of wait time for others in the same time period, which I would say means the return of the P3 at Guangzhou is the same for K1 and K3, in this type of situation.

 

Which bring me to Menqxin, where yours and others send the same information to NVC instead of Guangzhou, so at what point does it get put onto the stack at Guangzhou is the question. Need more data.

 

Chinese Wife!!!,

I am going to keep it based on the other two time lines as the date at, or entered at NVC is a good time to start the count since that additional time makes them fall into the pattern. But two is not enough to be sure, so unfortunately it is a wait and see. I forget if there are others similar to yours ahead of you. If I am understanding this more, there are two types of K3's? One sends the P3 type docs to NVC, the other to Guangzhou? This is confusing.

 

Everyone should make note how the interview scheduled is filling backwards, comparing the P4 receive date list to the Interview date list.

[da64]

Hi Nooneufo,

 

Just for the record... We recieve Package 3 on 8/13/04 and sent it back on 8/15/04. GZ entered it into the system on 9/1/04.

 

The problem was that GZ said the OF-169 for was missing (only after I emailed to find out what was taking so long). So we sent OF-169 again and they confirmed receipt on 12/15/04. Also, by that time all the name checks were complete, and we were immediately put in the que. We just wish that someone would have mentioned that the forms was missing, as I was regularly contact with the DOS for updates and they never mentioned it. *****LESSON LEARNED - AFTER P3, THE DOS ONLY KNOWS WHAT GZ DECIDES TO PUT IN THE COMPUTER, SO EMAIL STATUS UPDATES TO GZ ARE BETTER THAN THE DOS*****

 

Anyway, not sure what date makes the most sense for your tracking. But, we definately feel like we were in limbo for a while. Maybe the 12/15 P3 date you put is o.k. But we feel like a 9/1/04 P3 that was delayed.

 

You see, I have obviously thought about this way too much!!!!

 

Thanks Again, DA

[nooneufo]

da64, Thanks for the updates.

Good advice for those who are tracking their papers, check both places.

 

For your dates, I just had you only at the top under delayed with the September date. This week I had added you to the soon to receive list for next week, but the next day you got the P4 so I removed it. I am using your 12/15/05 date for the tracking stats, as it falls directly in line with the idea that at the point where your papers get placed into the stack is where the count starts. Because the number of days is 90, which is a week shorter, I make the assumption they either took you off the next stack because of the time, or you were at the bottom of the last stack, which is why you heard about it earlier. Since that time and my time are close, and by the P3 dates, it would seem that this could have happened. I hope they are careful walking around with these stacks, and glad you are finally on your way to being together.