mR. X's mATh cLaSs

[youmolide]

I have always been bugged about the contention that GZ does so much work processing visas, most especially K-1 and K-3's.

 

10,000 K-1 and K-3 visas a year according to the esteemed (and anonymous) Mr. X

 

So, I did some checking ... after matching a sample of more than 100 posted GZ interview dates to the days of the week, I have found that GZ NEVER schedules Friday interviews. Mon Tue Wed Thur yes, but no Friday ones I could find.

 

OK ... now figure with Chinese Holidays, American holidays etc. you can (being generous) estimate a maximum of 200 interview days a year.

 

10,000 interviews / 200 days = 50 interviews a day. Can anyone who has had an interview confirm this ??? Were there 50 people waiting in the interview room ? and were they all there for the K-1 or K-3 ?

 

Now let's estimate how many americans meet a Chinese citizen and decide to tie the knot ?

 

Well --- taking a survey of various Internet sites related to Chinese - American relationships (of which Candle is, by far, the biggest and the best ) we find less than a thousand 'documented' relationships (again being generous).

 

Candle has roughly 500 users (of whom couples may have several logins ... I have 1 and my wife has one ... for example) and we are on Yahoo as well so there is a LOT of duplication. But by even being as incredibly generous as possible, there might be a 1000 American-Chinese couples a year (if I had to put money on it I would say less than 500).

 

SO WHERE ARE THE OTHER 9,000 ???????????????

 

OK so maybe they are among the 25 percent of americans who dont use the Internet ... (then how do they have a job ? ... LOL --- just kidding )

 

I can think of only two ways a person could meet and marry a Chinese national without using the Internet ... one is if you had a job in China and met a nice sweet local girl (or guy) and were serious enough to take the walk down the aisle (or around the tables at a Chinese wedding) The second would be a Chinese national who later gets american citizenship and chooses a Chinese national to marry.

 

According to Google, some 12,000 americans live in China (much less now with SARS I'm sure) and of those, 50 percent are on 'religious missions' of one kind or another. And more than a few of the remainder are either very young (not interested or ready for marriage) or have families already. Based on my personal experiences, having lived in China for more than two years, in four different Chinese cities, I would say this is a pretty accurate figure. And in any case, EVERY american I met in China used the Internet extensively. And ... to top it of ... I only met 5 or 6 'mixed' couples in China in 2 years and NONE of them had applied for a K-1 or K-3 visa.

 

And don't bring up the strawman argument that lots of people come to Candle and never participate. There is no way a person could fill out the K-1 K-3 without asking a few 'newbie' questions along the way. And as for lawyers .... how much research would a person need to do to determine that lawyers for the K-1 K-3 are next to worthless (unless you are in some special situation). To assume that 90-95 percent of filers use lawyers is completely absurd. Maybe 5 percent (again being generous).

 

So ....

What have we learned in Mr. X's math class, children ...

 

that 90 to 95 percent of the 10,000 K-1 K-3 visas processed at GZ are given to former Chinese nationals (now US citizens) who never use the Internet.

 

BWWWHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH ....

 

10,000 ???

 

... only in the fevered imagination of a career bureaucrat.

 

 

 

 

B)

[Guest R2D2]

I believe that you are close to right on this but things will get worse in the next month or two. China consulates will then have to interview everone for any type of visa, including business and tourists travelers. This is under (yet again) the new rules. The 37 European countries will still not need even a visa but their passport must be scanable. Now if you were a terrorist, what contry's passport would you have to come to the US? I swear, the American politicians, including the CIA and FBI are getting more senile everyday or they are trying to send another message! White Europeans welcome, all others----NOT.

[Mick]

While the GZ consulate may do 10,000 interviews per year, no way do they process that many K visas per year. I have made numerous trips to the consulate. Somedays there are over 50 folks waiting to be interviewed, but the vast majority of these are student visas and never enter the Immigrant visa section, where the K visas are processed. And R2 is right, with this latest legislation requiring everyone to be interviewed, it will slow things down to a snails pace. Staffing was not increased to handle this new requirment.

[wolf]

For the life of me, I can't figure out why this thread was posted. Siince someone, I think it was tparrent, last week saying that he talked to Mr. X at the consulate and was informed that there are many fakers that mess up the system, there have been many negative post on candles.

As for the math lesson. I have said it before. I think that there are maybe 50,000 couples that start a K process each year. With all the internet dating, mags, and business travels, Chinese that are here already, friends of friends. People meet and start a relationship. They may even apply for the start of a K visa, but the government makes everything so hard that I believe many quite before they ever reach the consulate.

It is like this newbe that posted about getting the wrong papers. I can believe this very easy. Just like I know that over 90,000 petitions were shredded by the Ca. service center between Jan, 2002 and march 2002. I have the east coast paper to prove this, but when I told others about it, they said that was impossible.

I came on this site for help and support with my K-1 petition, and have learned so many new things that have helped me along the way. I think most of the people here are truly trying to bring loved ones here, and like myself most of us are down in the dumps enough, without having someone post something that will drag us even farther down. I am here to help anyone I can with my limited knowledge and to learn from others who have gone before me. To read that the math doesn't add up to what the consulate is saying, is negative. I sent 2 days at the consulate in May 2002 and there were easly other 100 people just in the short time I sent each day inside. There are many K visas that never get approved and they are not on this stie, who wants to tell everyone that after a 2 year wait, they were turned down, because some AH didn't like their looks and denied the visa.

This is terrible enough for all of us that have a loved one in China and want to be together. If you can't post something possitive, than don't post. We are all having enough trouble from our government, they don't need any help in making things more sad for us.

[francine]

For the life of me, I can't figure out why this thread was posted. Siince someone, I think it was tparrent, last week saying that he talked to Mr. X at the consulate and was informed that there are many fakers that mess up the system, there have been many negative post on candles.

As for the math lesson. I have said it before. I think that there are maybe 50,000 couples that start a K process each year. With all the internet dating, mags, and business travels, Chinese that are here already, friends of friends. People meet and start a relationship. They may even apply for the start of a K visa, but the government makes everything so hard that I believe many quite before they ever reach the consulate.

It is like this newbe that posted about getting the wrong papers. I can believe this very easy. Just like I know that over 90,000 petitions were shredded by the Ca. service center between Jan, 2002 and march 2002. I have the east coast paper to prove this, but when I told others about it, they said that was impossible.

I came on this site for help and support with my K-1 petition, and have learned so many new things that have helped me along the way. I think most of the people here are truly trying to bring loved ones here, and like myself most of us are down in the dumps enough, without having someone post something that will drag us even farther down. I am here to help anyone I can with my limited knowledge and to learn from others who have gone before me. To read that the math doesn't add up to what the consulate is saying, is negative. I sent 2 days at the consulate in May 2002 and there were easly other 100 people just in the short time I sent each day inside. There are many K visas that never get approved and they are not on this stie, who wants to tell everyone that after a 2 year wait, they were turned down, because some AH didn't like their looks and denied the visa.

This is terrible enough for all of us that have a loved one in China and want to be together. If you can't post something possitive, than don't post. We are all having enough trouble from our government, they don't need any help in making things more sad for us.

agree with you wolf.

[youmolide]

I never meant to make anyone feel bad ... but I will NOT apologize for posting the truth.

 

The entire point of Candle (and other visa sites) is that they are necessary ONLY because we can't get the TRUTH from the government. And by sharing the truth amongst ourselves everyone is better able to handle this long process. I also know that some of the most valuable information I have found on these boards is from persons willing to post distressing things --- because these things help my wife and I to prepare for all the could and can go wrong.

 

Just the other day, my wife told me that she didn't care how much longer this execrable process was going to take, all she wanted was to know the real truth, no guesses, no feel-good fantasies, ... just some real honest information in black and white, good or bad, it didn't matter just as long as it was the TRUTH.

 

And in any case, I cannot for the life of me understand why you would think that now that you KNOW that GZ does, in fact, handle FAR FEWER K-1 K-3 visas than we have been led to believe, that this is BAD NEWS ?!? So if I had posted than GZ handles 100,000 K-1 K-3 's year, you both would have been happy because you think that this was a piece of GOOD NEWS ?!?

 

 

I spent a lot of time and effort and thought on the post above because I thought it would make people feel better to know that GZ does in fact have much less work (at least from K-1 K-3 visas) than we ever would have thought.

 

And this ---

 

'There are many K visas that never get approved and they are not on this stie, who wants to tell everyone that after a 2 year wait, they were turned down, because some AH didn't like their looks and denied the visa'

 

--- is just about the most negative thing I have ever read here. I have had a lot of experience going through this process --- and ever since I filed my first K-1 seven years ago I have NEVER heard of anyone being *permanently* turned down for either a K-1 or K-3 visa unless it was a clear case of blantant visa fraud. It may take forever to finally get processed, but only about 2 or 3 percent of applicants get * temporarily * turned down because either the couple does not communicate well (neither speaks the other's language) or the couple did not make a minimum effort to visit each other while they were apart (one visit in 2 years is NOT a sign of a healthy sincere relationship). And even in these rare cases where someone is temporarily flummoxed by GZ, they ALWAYS manage to find a way to score a visa eventually (Jon-In-Denver being a perfect example. The idea that an applicant would be refused for how they 'look' is patently ridiculous and does nothing but make other people fear and already complicated process is now completely random as well. NOTHING could be further from the truth.

 

Finally, I think you both were way out of line by attacking my post (which incidentally took quite a bit of time, thought and effort to compose) but I know that anyone can have a depressing, angry day and I willing give you the benefit of the doubt -- but do NOT EVER again tell me that posting the truth is something I am not allowed to do here simply because it's not something that *YOU* don't want to hear.

 

 

"Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and consciencious stupidity."

-Martin Luther King, Jr.

[tparrent]

Please don't take this the wrong way but you did not post "the truth" - you posted your opinion based on your analysis.

 

Likewise, I did not post "the truth" - I posted information given to me by someone in a position to know. That does not mean that Mr X was necessarily precise. Perhaps he shaded the numbers a bit. Perhaps not. I just posted what I was told.

 

In my opinion, and it is nothing more than that, I can certainly see 10,000 K applicants as reasonable. Not all of them may make it to the interview stage. Even 50 a day seems reasonable. When I went through this process years ago, there were more than 50 women IN THE ROOM (yes, I was actually inside) at the same time.

 

Also, I think you *may* be way off base by thinking that most couple would eventually end up at Candle. What about everyone who applied last year, the year before, 5 years ago? Candle wasn't around then but the delays still were. It's extremely egocentric to think that just because we are here, so is EVERYONE else. There is no way to estimate the proportion of applicants who search for, find or sign up on Candle. What about those who do not write/read comfortably in English? There may be many other sites you are not aware of. Maybe not but you should at least consider the possibility.

 

Finally, not everyone is as focused on the Internet as we are. There were plenty of fiancee/spouse visas long before the Internet became so popular. Foreign students, friends of Chinese in America, Americans working in China (There may, or may not, be only 12,000 Americans in China but a LOT more than that do business there without living there full time. There are also a good number of American students there. Long term tourists too.)

 

Hey, I just hope everyone availas themselves of as much information as possible. I hope that it is as accurate as I believe the information I posted was. For those so inclined, I certainly encourage you to do your own analysis. I've been doing it myself for over a year. I was just glad to receive what I beleive was useful new data.

 

Good luck and fast processing to all of you. And thanks to the people who developed this site and keep it up and running. It's a great resource.

[Guest R2D2]

Guys and Gals!!! Let's put our energy to constuctive work. Whether GZ interviews 1,000,0000 or 10 a year is not going to change the inept way that either the system or the rudeness of the government employees treat us, the American citizens. Direct your energies to letter writing newspapers, TV anchors, and your representatives to help change the system. In a few months, everyone applying for any type of visa from China will be interviewed. Have you any idea the chaos that will cause. There will be a backup of all K visas for many, many months!!!!!!

[Argyle]

Well Said R2D2!

 

And if anyone needs any suggestions about where you should direct your letter writing efforts, just look back through the "Letter Writing Campaign" thread. There are several great media outlets and government officials listed.

 

I'll say it again, and again, and again. Write those letters and emails. It works!

 

If I hadn't found out (by writing to my senator and the consulate) that they had submitted the WRONG NAME for the name check in September 2002, I am sure that we would still be waiting!

 

Best Wishes.

[Kaige]

I see that it was stated all people will need interviews before a visa is issued? does this include familys that want to visit us here? any idea on how long the process takes for that? will they have to go to GZ for interview? maybe we need to start planing for a visit for the New Year B)

[Guest R2D2]

Yes, all.

[chinadave2001]

Saw something on 001 this morning and decided to find an authoritative source. Growth in the numbers of applicants through GZ has been debated for quite a while. The FFY 2002 numbers are in. FFY = Federal Fiscal Year which runs from October 1 through September 30 of the following year. FFY 2002 is the period 10/1/01 ~ 9/30/02. Here are the immigrant numbers from China for the last four years:

 

1999  29,579

2000  41,861

2001  50,821

2002  55,974

 

It should be noted that no visas were issued for the last 2 months of 2002 - remember the black hole?

 

Definition of immigrant:

Permanent Resident Alien - an alien admitted to the United States as a lawful permanent resident. Permanent residents are also commonly referred to as immigrants; however, the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) broadly defines an immigrant as any alien in the United States, except one legally admitted under specific nonimmigrant categories (INA section 101(a)(15)). An illegal alien who entered the United States without inspection, for example, would be strictly defined as an immigrant under the INA but is not a permanent resident alien. Lawful permanent residents are legally accorded the privilege of residing permanently in the United States. They may be issued immigrant visas by the Department of State overseas or adjusted to permanent resident status by the Immigration and Naturalization Service in the United States.

 

The Source

What? Can this be true? You mean to suggest that the number of Chinese immigrants has nearly doubled in the last four years? So much for the Chinese Exclusion act theory, right? With that many applicants, maybe GZ is just overwhelmed. Nothing more, nothing less.

Dave

[Lukexjxc]

Yeah Dave,

I agree with you about the government discriminating against Asians, that victim stuff gets me down. I was just going to post how many Chinese immigrated to the US this past year, thanks for doing it Donahso, I think that is valuable information for all of us.

Luke

 

Ps I heard that India supplied the most immigrants last year at plus of minus some 80,000

[Guest R2D2]

You must also believe that GZ conducts over 300 interviews a day, 5 days a week and that China is not considered a terrorist country and no security checks or visas are required. I have a tooth ferry that I would like you to meet. B)

[tparrent]

Now THAT'S interesting!

 

I never subscribed to the "white man's conspiracy" theory. I've always thought the hold ups were just ineffcient bungling combined with massive numbers.

 

Your research would tend to put the conspiracy theory to rest given the list of top countries. Nary a European one amongst them!

 

Of course, we should expect large, relatively poor countries to have the greatest number of people WANTING to emigrate. It appears that they are, in fact, succeeding to some degree. I know the proportions of population to immigration may not all line up but your point is perfectly valid regardless.

 

Thank you sir and may you now be blessed with even speedier processing