P3 to P4 patterns????

[Inxsfan]

remove this post

Edited August 6, 2005 by Inxsfan (see edit history)

[LeeFisher3]

I'm convinced that GZ started issuing interviews August 1 based on their current locations capabilities and then someone caught this and they started going through down the list and issuing dates that filled in the new estimate on their daily interview count.

 

Then it appears they reviewed the numbers again and realized they had more capacity and started going down the list yet again.

 

This is about the only way I can make any sense of the appointment schedule as I see P3 dates from May being assigned early September appointments.

 

I'm sure some will eventually look at the dates and think they were treated unfairly, personnally I'm just happy that we have a date, besides it gives me more time to clean the house and cooler weather than some of the others. So take that!

[rosyanne]

I think they just arrange pile by pile.

First wave is before the end of March(Arranged last week)

Second wave is beginning of April(Arranged at the begging of this week)

Third wave is the rest April(were arranged from the middle of this week)

[nooneufo]

I see no difference in any pattern, as this still follows what they have been doing for the past year. So far.

I would say you are just seeing the week by week pattern of the "take is off the top of the stack to to give the interview" ,

"put it back on to a new stack", "take it off that stack and tell about the Interview stack".

That is my reasoning for the reversing pattern. If you take the data for each week of each P3 letter date and chart it, this pattern becomes clearer.

Here are the September Interviews in Interview date order.

The first numbered column is P3 computer entry to P4 number of days.

The second numbered column is P3 received (or P3 letter date) to P4 number of days

The third column is P3 to Interview number of days.

The fourth column is the number of days notice, or P4 to Interview.

 

P3 Rcvd---P3 comp---P4 Rcvd---Interview---Days between each

 

 

04/07/05 04/19/05 08/02/05 09/06/05 140 117 152 35

04/20/05 05/13/05 08/03/05 09/06/05 116 105 139 34

03/28/05 04/04/05 07/28/05 09/07/05 156 122 163 41

03/28/05 04/08/05 07/28/05 09/07/05 152 122 163 41

03/21/05 03/26/05 07/28/05 09/08/05 166 129 171 42

03/26/05 04/15/05 08/02/05 09/08/05 146 129 166 37

03/27/05 04/06/05 07/28/05 09/09/05 156 123 166 43

04/22/05 04/29/05 08/04/05 09/09/05 133 104 140 36

04/17/05 05/12/05 08/03/05 09/12/05 123 108 148 40

03/07/05 05/10/05 08/03/05 09/13/05 126 149 190 41

04/05/05 04/08/05 08/01/05 09/13/05 158 118 161 43

03/28/05 03/28/05 07/28/05 09/14/05 170 122 170 48

04/15/05 03/30/05 07/26/05 09/14/05 168 102 152 50

 

03/03/05 04/26/05 07/31/05 09/15/05 142 150 196 46

03/29/05 04/01/05 07/28/05 09/15/05 167 121 170 49

04/07/05 04/15/05 08/01/05 09/19/05 157 116 165 49

04/12/05 05/05/05 08/01/05 09/19/05 137 111 160 49

04/15/05 04/15/05 08/01/05 09/19/05 157 108 157 49

04/11/05 04/14/05 08/01/05 09/20/05 159 112 162 50

04/08/05 04/08/05 07/28/05 09/21/05 166 111 166 55

04/27/05 05/10/05 08/02/05 09/21/05 134 97 147 50

04/16/05 04/28/05 08/03/05 09/24/05 149 109 161 52

02/26/05 04/08/05 07/28/05 09/29/05 174 152 174 63

03/12/05 03/28/05 08/02/05 09/29/05 185 143 201 58

04/12/05 04/29/05 08/01/05 09/29/05 153 111 170 59

 

 

 

See how the pattern above is much more random than the pattern below, which is P3 letter date order.

 

02/26/05 04/08/05 07/28/05 09/29/05 174 152 174 63

03/03/05 04/26/05 07/31/05 09/15/05 142 150 196 46

03/07/05 05/10/05 08/03/05 09/13/05 126 149 190 41

03/12/05 03/28/05 08/02/05 09/29/05 185 143 201 58

03/21/05 03/26/05 07/28/05 09/08/05 166 129 171 42

03/26/05 04/15/05 08/02/05 09/08/05 146 129 166 37

03/27/05 04/06/05 07/28/05 09/09/05 156 123 166 43

03/28/05 04/04/05 07/28/05 09/07/05 156 122 163 41

03/28/05 04/08/05 07/28/05 09/07/05 152 122 163 41

03/28/05 03/28/05 07/28/05 09/14/05 170 122 170 48

03/29/05 04/01/05 07/28/05 09/15/05 167 121 170 49

 

04/05/05 04/08/05 08/01/05 09/13/05 158 118 161 43

04/07/05 04/19/05 08/02/05 09/06/05 140 117 152 35

04/07/05 04/15/05 08/01/05 09/19/05 157 116 165 49

04/08/05 04/08/05 07/28/05 09/21/05 166 111 166 55

04/11/05 04/14/05 08/01/05 09/20/05 159 112 162 50

04/12/05 05/05/05 08/01/05 09/19/05 137 111 160 49

04/12/05 04/29/05 08/01/05 09/29/05 153 111 170 59

04/15/05 03/30/05 07/26/05 09/14/05 168 102 152 50

04/15/05 04/15/05 08/01/05 09/19/05 157 108 157 49

04/16/05 04/28/05 08/03/05 09/24/05 149 109 161 52

04/17/05 05/12/05 08/03/05 09/12/05 123 108 148 40

04/20/05 05/13/05 08/03/05 09/06/05 116 105 139 34

04/22/05 04/29/05 08/04/05 09/09/05 133 104 140 36

04/27/05 05/10/05 08/02/05 09/21/05 134 97 147 50

 

Here is a graphical view of the P4's given out in P4 date order, Note how in each group, the P4 wait time starts high then goes down, then the next group starts high then goes down. I think we see this because when they work with each case, at each stage they are manually handling the application. Which then goes into a new stack for the next stage of processing. ( I posted this chart a while ago for the same purpose with the data available then, with the same pattern). Reposted below first chart.

 

 

[http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/2ndP4dateorder.gif

 

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/ShiftedJunp4order.gif

Edited August 5, 2005 by nooneufo (see edit history)

[HanLi]

I figured it out!!!! it is the Chaos Theory!!

Alive and well in GUZ

[Steve and Qingqing]

Based all all this info and the arrangment of the stars , can you project the outcome of all the interviews!!!

[nooneufo]

Based all all this info and the arrangment of the stars , can you project the outcome of all the interviews!!!

143794[/snapback]

That would be telling.

Be seeing you.

No.6

[LeeFisher3]

Based all all this info and the arrangment of the stars , can you project the outcome of all the interviews!!!

143794[/snapback]

Oh this one is toooooooo easy, each person showing up for the interview will/should leave the building by the end of the day.

 

So you can safely everyone who goes in will come out.

[dailyview]

I'm just glad to finally quit calling DOS but i do plan when this is all over to find out a little more information about how this process is done. there has to be some guidelines, policy, proceedure.

[LeeFisher3]

I'm just glad to finally quit calling DOS but i do plan when this is all over to find out a little more information about how this process is done. there has to be some guidelines, policy, proceedure.

143866[/snapback]

Yes, there are guidelines, policies and procedures from the USCIS and DOS. From my understanding each consulate also makes adjustments to these to fit their specific environment. I also believe that individual personalities drive the specific behavior of each consulate.

 

It's like walking into a fast food place, in one you are amazed and pleased with the courteous service and quaility of food, another you may only get good food and rude service and then some who you believe should pay you to walk through the door. Now they all have the same guidelines, but the implementation is different at each.

 

Now if you can figure out a consistent behavior I am sure someone will change it just to prove you wrong.

[esun41]

I'm convinced that GZ started issuing interviews August 1 based on their current locations capabilities and then someone caught this and they started going through down the list and issuing dates that filled in the new estimate on their daily interview count.

 

Then it appears they reviewed the numbers again and realized they had more capacity and started going down the list yet again.

 

This is about the only way I can make any sense of the appointment schedule as I see P3 dates from May being assigned early September appointments.

 

I'm sure some will eventually look at the dates and think they were treated unfairly, personnally I'm just happy that we have a date, besides it gives me more time to clean the house and cooler weather than some of the others. So take that!   

143760[/snapback]

Lee,

 

I felt that way too about later P-3's getting earlier P-4's. You and I had similar P-3 dates and have similar interview dates. I think trying to make sense out of it all would be a waste of time and effort and I agree with you on this point... at least we are in the mix now and not estimating... I just hope that all our fellow brothers and sisters on CFL get their due soon!

 

Eric