Tony_onrock

It is still too expensive. It costs a lot more than in the US. I am shopping for a second car and found that even a mimi cooper costs a lot here. Looking for something small and green for the environment as my other car is an SUV. Any suggestions?

I am going to try it out today for lunch. Frankly, the people who eat at KFC and McDonald's are not really going for the food. They are going for something American. We had a 25 degrees joint open in Beijing for about a year and had to shut it down, even though it was voted the best burger in Beijing. The clients were not even Chinese. Most are Europeans (lots of French) and they don't seem to care that much for the American food. For the locals, it was too expensive, a bit over 100 RMB for a burger combo. If you look at the customers in KFC, it is mostly teens and people in their early 20s. Starbucks is another one of those kind of places and frankly you will find most of the people in Starbucks hate the taste of coffee, or at least the starbucks coffee. They dilute it a lot of milk.

Well, really depends on the location and quality of the building. In Chengdu, 6000 sm is probably the average. We are pushing out our development there starting at 8500/sm. In Guangzhou, our development is selling for 25,000/sm and almost sold out, prime location stand alone villa. In Beijing, in a location that Bill described we are negotiating on a complex and probably resell at 30,000/sm. Tanchengyipin, the highest priced apartment in Pudong Shanghai is selling pretty well at closing to 100,000 sm and in Puxi, in Xintiandi, where we sold our building at 61,000 sm beginning 2008 is now selling at over 70,000 sm. Rental, though, have fallen significantly for luxury apartments due to over supply and lack of tenants. Our project in Changzhou is selling at 5500 and Xuzhou a bit shy of 4000. So the price range is quite big. Commercial and office is hurting big time though.

May be going off course here. I am not talking about nations but business people and business culture. In the past 3 or 4 years we beat a lot of other funds to become one of the most active on the China real estate market because our team is all Chinese. Too often we grab a deal from our foreigner staffed competitor even though our offer was not the best. We always start to make friends first or at least during the course of negotiation try to build a friendship, like family outings etc. It is hard to explain. Americans go in with the most aggressive terms treating the other side like an enemy and expect the other side to beat back equally aggressively to get to the middle ground and shake hands on a deal. Maybe that is what went wrong with US and China trade relationship. In every single deal I do, I go in and look at the facts and economics and lay it on the table what I believe is the most fair deal, slightly more favorable to us and tell them outright that this is only a suggestion that can be discussed and explain the reason why I believe it is fair for both sides. If we do have to make a bad offer, we tell the other side not to be offended and don't have to consider it. They can look and talk with others first and if after talking with others they still like us then we can discuss on how to make changes on other terms (non-price wise) to make both sides happy. This way because they feel we are honest, they trust us. When the price is not hugely different and when time and certainty to close the deal is important, they pick us and we get a bargin.

Correction: there are certain industries, called restricted category industries, all listed in the foreign investment catalog, that have different requirements. Some of them have restrictions on percentage of foreign ownership, such as insurance company, rare earth, etc. School and hospitals may have special rules also. Check it out on the MOFCOM website

It is not difficult to get a visa. Photoshop for college diploma is quite common. My son has only a high school diploma and he finally got a visa without my help. The pay is not bad either, 8000 RMB/Month for 20 hours of teaching a week. For people who were born in China, there is a special policy for granting a 5 year visa if you have a doctorate degree and 3 year visa for a masters, non-cumulative, though. There is no need to have a Chinese own 51% of a business. Not sure what the 100,000 rule is. I have set up a consulting company in Tianjin with only 50k RMB for our company. If there is a problem at the location where you are planning on doing business, set it up else where and set up a branch locally. This way the tax money goes to the local government and they won't give you a headache.

Not going to work. In Shanghai, there are only two kinds of young couples, ones that want one child and ones that don't.

The problem is not too much liquidity. The problem is where the money went. Most of the money were lent to state owned large enterprises that the banks felt to be safe in a uncertain economy. They have the state backing and will not be allowed to go bankrupt. But SMEs, mostly, if not all, privately owned and accounts for more than 60% of the employment as well as real output are still left stranded, without the badly needed bank credit. The state owned companies do not have real use for the money, infrustructure does not generate profits and banks forced them to accept the loans and start to charge them interests. So they naturally go into stock and real property market for speculation. One example is the rising land price. It has rebounded to the late 2007 level. Private developers who bought land that time are still holding off development, cause development means losing money. Yet, you see land prices are getting there again, more than the housing unit price on the market, after it is finished. This is something that the government can do something about. They own the borrowers! I hate these officials blaming every one but the real cause of the problem. It is they who prompted and supported all this speculation because they get almost half of the revenue from land sale.

Well, in China whether you have more freedom, really depends on who you are. I have too many stories to tell but then I don't want to offend those who genuinely love China. So let me just pick one that happened in Shanghai. In Shanghai, it is perfectly safe almost in any part of the city and any time of the day or night. So one day I was chatting with some cops on why they don't wear a bullet proof vest. But then found out they don't even carry guns. A few days later came the news that a yong man went into a police station and stabbed and killed six cops. He was hailed as a hero generally by the public. Now, Shanghai cops based on what I have seen and experienced are probably the most polite in all of China. The fact that people hate the cops so much speak for something. The funny part of it is that before each cop got stabbed, he was yelling at him something like how dare you try to stab me. There are lots of riots, real ones. One could easily find out about them on the internet before. But now most of the posts are deleted by the government. On the other hand people do argue or fight with cops more than in the US. One Chinese tourist learned it the hard way in upstate NY that there is something called resisting arrest. You can see mostly women engaged in yelling matches with on the streets of Shanghai on a routine basis and most oftern over traffic violations. Then the young man who killed 6 cops was from Beijing. He was stopped for questioning about the bike he was peddling. Cops suspected it was stolen though it was rented. He had an attitude and refused to answer questions. In the US cops may probably take to the precinct and rough him up a bit and then he would file a complaint. Then there is a civilian complaint board review, etc. But here they beat him up, hitting him in the private areas. A NY cop may have done the same and probably a bit worse. The Young man in NY would then hire a lawyer, claim 7 million in damages and settle for 3. Mr. Yang, the young man here did the same. Filed a complaint, was not satisfied with the settlement of a few thousand RMB. Had he tried to file a legal claim, chances are the court would refuse to take the case. (they did with our attempt to file one against the Bureau of Propaganda in Shanghai for a commercial dispute, citing social effect as an excuse). The young man got upset and killed a few. He was denied his right to chose lawyers, volunteer lawyers who share his view. Eventually he got a bullet in the head as justice. Then again every day of the court proceeding there were a group of people demonstrated in front of the court house. Is there freedom in China? Is there more freedom? I was taken into police station a couple of times, once for breaking some one's nose, once for a fight that was fare and even and twice for roller blading on the streets with about 100 others and racing against the cops on scooters trying to stop us. In the US I would be arrested for the first two incidents, charged and I would then win or maybe not. In the latter incidents get a ticket and pay a fine. But in China, in the first incident I payed damages mitigated by the police, quite a bargin considering 1500 RMB for fractured bones. But then the other guy was a laborer. In the second one, the cops said that since each suffered about the same damage, call it even, shake hands and go to have a drink together. In the roller blade incidents, the group were predominantly expats, we were told to appologize and let go. If I were a laborer or look like one will probably get the treatment Mr. Yang would get, beaten up first. I may have lost some important bodily functions and received little compensation because I already have a few kids. I would then have to figure out a way either to start a riot or figure out a way to burn down a police building or stab a few to get justice. TIC= this is China. It is not really any worse or better, just depends on who you are. Well, I know a friend who tried to help negotiate a settlement for a murder case, really bad. The guy killed his girl friend, cut her into several parts and took her car. There was a quote from the judges and the police involved in the investigation on how much it would cost from death penalty to life in prison. The man's family could not afford it. In another bar fight, one good friends brother killed one man with a bottle. His dad works somewhere that is helpful that my friend did some small scale developments, so cash was not that big a problem. His brother is now a free man. He was sentence to death, with a two year delay. Then commuted to life, then reduced to 15 and then release after a few on good behavior. He always regretted it. Had he paid out more, said he, his brother could have gotten off as an a neglegent killing (Manslauter?). Three year he would be out. Or better still had his dad been the head of some local government, like the incident in Guizhou that sparked a riot of thousands, he would be able to get off completely free. " I was doing some push up and the girl just said, life was so boring and jumped into the river, killing herself." " I did not rape her or kill her". The boy was arrested and then released when cops found out who his dad was. The girl's uncle was almost killed after he left the police station protesting alone. A "mob" or "gangster" group of 50 thousand in a small town surrounded the local government building and torched it. Autopsy was then performed by government and no rape was found, of course. Some mobsters were arrested. The a few government officials were fired and now "pushup" is a new word in the Chinese dictionary, at least over the internet before the recent internet censorship was tightened. This is China, the good, the bad and the suffocating oppression.

If that would be true then the Chinese better start buying a whole lot more of their own stuff than they do now because the western countries will not be able to afford to import Chinese goods...What was the size of the Chinese export market in 1980??? In 1980, the black market rate was 1:7. Well, some investment banks were writing swaps for a three year USD/RMB at 5% appreciation year on year basis in March 2008. Where is the counter party now??

They call Mr. Wen Jia Bao the "Helecopter Wen". The danger is how long can this sustain. The export industry (one of the three main backbones of the economy) may not recover for another two years. The government is already making plans to kill the real estate market (another one of the three back bones). I wonder how the numbers will look in the 3rd and fourth quarter if the government does not pump more money into it.

1. Buying home, easy. They did away with the work/living one year rule. I bought one in Shanghai in 2006 and one this year in Chengdu. 2. Selling, no problem. The secondary market for residential is actually pretty active. It is much easier to sell than in the states. Only thing is that the taxes are pretty high. If you want it to be an income producing asset, forget it. In China the return is very low, 3% -4% in Shanghai, a bit higher in Beijing about 4%. But if you are looking for asset appreciation, it may be worth it. Nanning rental market is even worse for any sizable units, because people who rent are all young, freshly out of college kinds. My sis-in-law has one apartment in Nanning and I went there a couple of times to explore the market. I am planning on buying one apartment in Nanning soon if my in laws want to go back. The price is not inline with the income level in that city, so you may have to use your judgement on the long term appreciation potential. The good thing going for it is the government support for the city to be a hub for cooperation with south east asia. So far I dont see solid fundamentals in the local economy for sustained upward trend for the housing appreciation. 3. Job, easy, if it is teaching English. You can get a visa. The pay is a bit lower than big cities as Beijing or Shanghai. Then the cost of living is much lower too. If no job, pay a fee and some one will be able to get you a visa. 4. Running a business if not difficult either. You need to be in a permitting line or encouraged line of business. Need to know how to set it up, getting local government approvals etc. Now they welcome foreign investment. One suggestion, a good pizza store! I am going to start one if my in-laws go back there so that there is some one I can trust with the cash register (the key to any business in China). 5. Beihai. It has a nice beach but I don't like the people there. Beihai has traditionally been a pretty volatile market in terms of real estate. Lots of distressed villas going for about 100k RMB in 2004 went up to over a million RMB in a relative short period of time. In the last cycle of 2003 it suffered quite a big drop, but last year some how the price did not drop much. Hard to predict the future there and I would not touch it for investment purposes.

To go off the topic a bit, just a few minutes ago, I was in a cab and saw six police cars at one spot and a couple of people, an equal number of taxi. This is in Chengdu, apparently a car hit a cab and run. The cab chased, a few more joined. When cornered, the car went into reverse gear and hit the cab again. Two cops came and the people in the car came out and pushed and shoved with those two. More came and they were still arguing when I got out to my cab to take a look. Those fighting with the cops were Tibetans. This is Chengdu. Not saying the cops are nice anywhere in China, but they seemed to be pretty scared of any potential rioting. I am not a fan of the government here, nor am I a fan of the ethnic minority any more. It did a big disservice to their cause of, whatever that may be. As a Han, I would at this point not object to the government in persuading the Xinjiang minority to some kind of assisted immigration out to Turkishtan or any other place north or west where they can perfectly preserve their cultural etc. It sounds a bit German, but hey, I am only human.

Well, I couldnot get on facebook for a few days, then a friend told me a program that can get around the block. It just slows down the surffing a bit, but hey I am back on facebook. The real trouble is Chinese websites, they keep on deleting my posts and send me a warning email. THAT is annoying

Shanghai rained and chengdu rained, I had to be at one of these two cities today. Could not book a flight (all booked) that would put me above the clouds at the me it happened. Well, it went dark for just a few minutes. Then light again.

not that funny if you have to hold 45 minutes before your turn to pee. I doubt the new Disney in Shanghai will be sucessful. The main problem is cultural difference. most in china have no emotional attachment to the Mouse as in the US.

Hi Toot, I am not a backpacker but have seen plenty. No need to worry about how other people perceive you. Chinese are typically quite friendly, esp. when you are outside the big cities. Given that your friend does not speak Chinese, communication may be an issue. The best thing is to place the places she wants to go and find some one to travel with together. There is a backpacker group of over 10k members spanning all over the country. She can simply post some posts and easily find one or two other Chinese girls to go backpacking together. The site is kaixin001.com. There is a group within called Backpackers (all in Chinese). The site is by invitation only, so if you are serious send me PM with an email address and I can send you the invitation. Goodluck. PS: never mind what other people think.

As far as Guangzhou and Shenzen is concerned, i would not touch that market. True prices have dropped quite a bit. So has demand. It may turn out to be the rust belt of China in a structual adjustment. No one knows how the structual adjustment will happen, but garment factors, toys, shoes and other labor intensive industries are dying for sure. China is no longer competitive in these areas. I would pay closer attention to Shanghai and buy here. Prices need to drop 20% more. We are following a few developments and watching the price. In a recovery Shanghai will pick up first. The demand is here, supply quite limited. I would be careful about Beijing. The price, as well as supply went out of line in anticipation of the Games and it is feeling the reality.

I guess my purchase of a new condo in Chengdu at 5500rmb/sm last July was a good deal, then. Top notch complex being built by Vanke, great location, too. It is easy to find out. You can find comparables pretty easy. The one I bought is next to the 3rd ring, coner unit on 6th floor, with one side facing the villas, one side facing the river and one side facing the court yard. Per title cert. the price is 4000/sqm (107 Sqm) but actual area is 127 Sqm(thus the effective price is reduced to 3100/sqm). Comps are selling at around 4000-5000 range. In the current market the only thing I would buy is where 1) I know the financial strength of the developer ( we control the cash flow of this particular one) and 2) the price is below market. If it is a fire sale and the apart is not finished (typical situation) one has to wath out for bankruptcy risk. The general consensus is that the price will drop further. The financial crisis is not yet felt by the middle class, the main body of buyers on the property market. Sale are slow because of anticipation that prices will drop further. So if the price is right, sales immediately go up. The property is that after the Chinese new year, about 70 million migrant workers are not returning to the city and bankruptcy in manufactoring will speed up causing more migrant workers losing jobs. Layoff at white collar level will take place a bit later than the blue collar mirgant workers. At that time, the pockets of buyers are squeezed (rather than currently only mentally affected). The market will feel it. The government stimulus, building cheap housing will further dampen the low end housing market by introducing additional (huge) competition that are not in line with the market. Things will improve later as housing starts are grinding down to zero basically. When supply dry up (other than low income housing), prices will pickup. Even on low income housing side, central government wants local government to build, but local government wants to buy from existing stock of developers. For local governments, 35% to 70% of the revenue come from land sale (depeding on city). Depressing the housing market by further glutting it with government build low income housing does not generate a dime of tax for them (except for bribes), but will kill the land auction market. Right now no city dare to acution off land unless the price and buyer has been fixed. So the landscape is quite mirky. The best strategy is to hold off, unless in my case where I know the price offered is 20% below market (as management incentive).

You are quite the skilled practitioner of deceptive rhetoric! Do you enjoy telling lies about others to advance your unfounded opinions or is it a compulsion? Please cut and paste any post where you could document your ridiculous straw man. I stated that your picture of a small piece of cinder block, that you hold up as proof of your arguments, is proof of nothing. I stated that I suspected there were problems with the school construction but unlike you, I don't have "proof" of that. I could take a picture of a cinder block and claim it proves my assertions, I just don't operate that way because of an attachment to honesty. I'm sorry if my attachment bothers you. Please don't feel the need to speak honestly about what you actually know and don't know on my account. You are free to fill candle with fact-free rhetoric if you wish. But since you have thrown out this ridiculous argument again, step up to the plate. Lay out the actual evidence you have that that picture is a weightbearing wall built without rebar and not a non-weight-bearing wall or decorative cinder block wall. I anxiously await your "proof." Once you have laid out the facts that you can confirm about that picture, we'll all know the hard work you did to confirm what that picture actually represents. I DON"T KNOW what that picture is and I mentioned some of the possibilities. I NEVER claimed to know what that picture is. You are the one who "knows" it is a wall built without rebar. It may be, but at this point YOU DON"T KNOW THAT. Who took the picture? Where, exactly? What part of the structure does it represent? How did you determine that? How were you able to distinguish that chunk of concrete as "wall without rebar" and not appropriate cinder block construction? The actual piece of concrete seems quite small. What steps did you take to document that overall school construction in Sichuan could be extrapolated from that small bit of concrete? How much time did you spend researching these important questions so that you could feel comfortable making the public claim that your picture proves what you claim? Maybe you could take a moment off from lying about what I said to answer some of those questions? I made no claims about knowing how anyone died in this disaster. That picture and your caption are nothing but a device to inflame emotions and detracts from the real discussion of the problems, although it does garner you much attention and cast you as the compassionate, irate crusader with proof of the conspiracy. Might you be enjoying that attention? Wait! I will soon have a picture of you smiling and that will prove that you're enjoying the attention. If it's fair for you, I should be able to use the same device, correct? So what if I don't know why you're smiling. It nust be for the reason I imagine and that is enough to call it proof by your standards. If you've done no research on that picture and you don't know what part of the structure that picture represents, you should stop publishing your assertion that you have evidence of no rebar walls. There very well may have been no rebar walls. You simply don't have the evidence you claim to have. Stop trying to pretend that I have less compassion for the victims, merely because you want to be right about your silly picture. Anyone able to read English will be able to see that my argument was always about your picture and what you claim it represents and proves. Why are you unable to grasp that? really? What is the issue? You want some proof? For argument purposes or .... If you are serious about this, I can locate quite a few of the photos and evidence. Can you handle the real proof? What is it good for? Get real. TIC - This is China. Want to really know how schools were built and how money was spent? But then what is the point? What to know the kind of notices the bar association is giving to lawyers on these kind of particular cases and the milk power cases? Or better still, want to see how 9 month fetus were pulled out of womb because it/she/he was supposed to be killed due to the population control policies? This is not your fight. This is not my fight. So lets forget about the argument. China is great place to make money but you can't get too emotional about a few little brats being killed or mutilated for profits.

Depends on the city. We just commissioned a market study on the residential housing market for our internal purposes and will keep you guys posted. For investment purposes, I would still bet on Shanghai and shy away from the Pearl River Delta. Rules on foreign investment in real estate, including individuals are relaxed now. We are one of the largest foreign players on the market now after the other ones pull out. The market will follow the economic recovery and that recovery will more likely start from Shanghai, a commerical and financial center. Pearl River Delta is going through industrial structure change which can take much longer. Just my two cents. Actually villas will do better than small size apartments. The government is pouring too much money and building too many affordable housing as part of the economic incentive package. This will push up the supply and inventory and dampen the prices. On the other hand no new villas will be approved. That will limit the supply. Also for large villas, the total price is much higher. The price drop is more significant. In Shanghai Xintiandi, some of the apartments are selling at 35,000 psm now. It has to go up significantly. Another city to watch is Beihai, Guangxi Province. It is a coastal city with nice beach. There were unbelieveable speculation in 2007 and early part of 2008 in that market. Thus far the prices have not dropped much but I expect it to have a over correction in 6 to 9 month time when the speculators feel the squeeze in liquidity.

It is happening and getting worse. I am in Chengdu now and witnessing and experiencing it first hand. The train station is jam packed, the airplane half empty! There are not going to be sufficient jobs locally in Sichuan to absort it. Got news today that the government is mobilizing the army to standby to crack down any large scale unrest. Now China has a political risk for investment. Well, I took a real vacation during Christmas and New year, stay at home without having conference calls and work! This is the first time in 3 years and I will be taking another vacation in a couple of weeks. On Monday, boss told me to take the afternoon off, after seeing me staring at the window glass, agitated because I have nothing to do. Citi and Goldman laid off their entire PRC real estate team, MS shifted the deal guys to reception! This is really bad.

It is a shame though that in Shanghai they are cracking down on roller bladers. Bikes and roller blades should replace the cars. Even though I have a car and live quite far from work 13.5km, I roller to work when weather permits. But these days getting more and more hassel from the cops.

Why does this sound familiar? Why do you think Unions and the Communist party flourished? Because they are Sicilian?

Charles, In three years of living here I have had an L visa and worked under the "Don't ask, don't tell" rule. Currently, I have a Z (Work) visa for the university where I work. Their requirement because they are closely scrutinized by the government. So, you can do it either way. But, it is one or the other. In the long run it is better to have the Z visa because it is the legal way (A relative term here) and the place where you work takes care of renewing it. Also the Z is good for a year where the L renewal seemed to be arbitrary, one time 3 months, then a year, then 6 months . . . I'd like to add a bunch of personal stuff, but when I get the time I'll write ya instead. Ying will be calling Haihua soon. Steve Steve, I hear ya about the "legal way." The problem is that in order to get a Z visa then one must have a bachelor's degree which I do not have. I am just looking towards the future and trying to look at all the options as you well know. I am certain that Haihua will be looking forward to the call. Thanks buddy, Charles Hi, Carles, Did you find a way to get a Z visa? My son is facing the same problem. He only got a high school diploma and was rejected on a Z even though the company is willing to hire him. He stayed on the L for about a year and half now through renewal and recently had to travel to HK to get a new one cause Shanghai refused to renew his now. I know there are a lot of illegal immigrants in Guanxi and Guangdong from Thailand and Vietnam, etc. Not sure what the penalty is when found out.