Tony_onrock

For small amounts, use the 50K USD method, having 5 family and friends convert 50k each. Then use another offshore account to do another 5X50 with 5 different PRC person. Try not to send to each person exactly same amount and definitely do not use the same account to send to more than 5 people in any given year. My bank manager told me that they have not linked the data at PRC banks. For investments, Bond yield is about 7-8%, CD at 4.1 for one month, 4.6% for 3 and up to 5% for one year. This is about the same rate as inflation here. Use a private banking officer at the bank, the combine a couple of people's money and give the above rate. One month deposit was as high as 5% last year with ANZ, but rate has lowered since to the above quoted rates.

Agree that the window is closing fast. The PRC government's biggest tool against such planning is actually putting pressure on the banks to stop . But then again, every time they come up with something, we design some thing else. Right? It is never ending cat and mouse game. Every stucture used is perfectly legal, so no fear of punishment.

I have used TOR in past with Firefox. It slows response a bit, but is still quite usable. See if you can get to the site: https://www.torproject.org/ This is blocked as well............Thanks anyway

There is actually a way to arbitrage on the exchange rate. It works like this: Set up a Cooks Island or other tax haven company, open up an account in HK and one account with the same bank in China proper. Use USD to convert into RMB in HK, this is offshore RMB and cannot be brought into China normally. But you can work with the bank to send this money into China and deposit it in the onshore bank account. Mind you, this is still offshore RMB and can not be withdrawn or invest in China, just like USD. The onshore bank branch issues a LC in favor of the company, with the RMB cash as deposit. Your company draws down on the LC as a loan in USD or HKD, convert it into offshore RMB and deposit it again with the same bank to secure another LC, so on so forth. The differential between HK lending rate and PRC lending rate should make up for the costs of the LC. 3 months deposit with most banks now is 4.6% (minimum deposit 3 mm RMB). After a while you unwind the structure, repay some of the offshore loan to release the onshore pledged RMB, convert that RMB back into USD. Round it a couple of times. What you get is RMB appreciation on your USD at a multiple, depending how many times you round this and the interest rate arbitrage, if any. The downside risk: RMB depreciation and 2012, plus PRC government plugging this hole. At least 20 mm USD a day is done in this product. For the bank, it generates a huge RMB deposit onshore. Although this deposit can not be lent out, it does help the deposit/lending ratio for the bank. It also earns a small fee and has a very safe lending for its offshore cash. Please note that this a not a financial advise, just a product introduced to me by a bank. Please also be kind enough not to spread this information to avoid the PRC bank regulators finding out about this.

any free vpn?????

Lindedin was blocked yesterday as well. Really, really fucking annoying. I use it to get professional networking

Agree that in the first tier cities and definitely Sanya, Hainan, there is a bubble in the sense that the price is out of the reach of the end users. The price has been popped up by speculation. However, in second and third tier cities, where we started going back in 2007 and where every fund is talking about going now, the demand is actually by end users, with prices ranging from 3000 -4000 RMB/sm. These are cities where the newer industries are moving in and tons of migrant workers are moving to. With the factories, all upstream and downstream companies are moving in. The demand in these third tier cities are real, with vacacy rate extremely low and over 70% as firt time buyers. I don't see a bubble in these sub-segments. Actually I am planning on buying more right around Chinese new year when the migrant workers are going home and developers need to liquidate some stock to pay them. Other than hard real assets, I invested in our fund which follows my reasoning and somewhat within our control. The other half are in cash or fixed income assets should the property market really goes ..... Personally I don't know the US market. Hawaii, I agree, should be a good market, as all other resort, vacation type of markets. Personally I like water front properties and if you have information on some in Hawaii, that is great. I have been looking at Newzealand cause that is where I want to live when I retire. We did do a 200 mm USD deal in CA for an Asian buyer. They are very happy with the deal. Personally I will not invest in US as I plan on my retirement and de-naturalization.

Property bubble is a dirty word in my book! I have everyting in the property market which can be wiped out overnight should the bubble pop. On the other hand, I don't see the bubble though. Urbanization will keep the market going, although at a lower speed. If the underlying economy stays healthy, there should not be a major problem. You may see a correction now and then. The banks are pretty healthy and leverage is quite low in general for property owners. A 30% correction will put me back where I started but I am pretty sure it will bounce back afterwards. So, if the price indeed drop by 30% or more. I will be in the market buying again.

Just just keep us posted on when it will be on. I have also signed up to be on the "Fei Cheng Wu Rao" show. It was to be filmed on October 31. I requested to wear a mask for the filming, citing personal safty reasons, but the producer was not convinced.

Hey Don, When you get here, lets meet up. Seriously, rollerblading in Shanghai is not that bad. I go in the bike lane and the cops have mostly stopped bothering me. I go to work on roller if the weather is good, 15 km each way. But if you do want to try some roller blading in safer places other than on the streets, there is the Science Museum and Minhang Sports park.

Welcome. It is a fun place.

Any one had experience shipping a car over to China from the US?

Get your feet wet first and then the headhunters will track you down. I am not familiar with the technical fields, but in legal and banking, there are lots of opportunities and the pay is on par with or better than the US.

RMB deposit to back up LC and then offshore borrowing in USD is a legally recognized means of providing financing for PRC company overseas expansion (including WFOEs). I know most of the listed develpers do it. I know in one transaction, in the purchase of two domestic propertie by a domestic company from an offshore individual, the bank helped funnel out 1 billion RMB out in a single day on closing. There are rules and there are legally recognized ways to get around it. Money changer is costly and there are legal risks as it is against the law, so is swapping. But most banks are willing to do it for their private banking clients to swap in or out. I know one money changer got arrested and sentenced to serious jail term. He helped in getting the money for an port construction converted!

hummm, not sure how stores deal with such problem here in China.

1/3 of the amount recovered, not a bad deal. GBILL, want to sign a retainer before you go?

Getting the money in and convert into RMB using something similar was OK before, but POBC put a stop to it in 2007 in the last round of curbing foreign investment in real esate in China and did warn/fine a coulple of banks that was active in doing these. Conduit loan is not a new concept. In the US, before IRS put a stop to it, it was used quite commonly to get treaty benefits. In PRC, other than foreign exchange control, conduit loan also has tax benefits. Interest income, for manufacturing companies, through shareholder loan is subject to 10% (7% in case of HK) withholding tax, yet inter bank loan (brach to parent or vise versa) is exempt from withholding. But banks have a quota limit on how much inter bank loan. Pleaes note that the above is a general discussion and I am not telling any one what to do or not to do.

True. One person can only convert 50K per year. 10 people can 50x10, half a million/yr. So after they linked all the banks online, people start using 10, 20 people to help convert by sending 50kUS to each friends and relative and then after conversion, have the money send to him or her in the PRC bank account. End of last year, BOC said, there is a limit. You can only send up to 5 people from an offshore account a year to convert. Say if you send to 10 people, the other 5's application to convert may be denied. But they only track the account number of the sender. If you have two or three separate accounts offshore, you can send to 5 people from each account and have them help you convert. On the way out, there is also the same 50K USD conversion limit, but you can also use multiple people to help. Larger amounts can be done through swap, arranged, sometimes by your private banker to match outward and inward remittance needs. I would certainly avoid the latter, as it is in violation of the foreign exchange rules. One legal way to get money in and out for large, large amounts is through banks, called Nei Bao Wai Dai, through company. This is how it work: you have a PRC business, say with 100 million RMB cash and no book profit yet. You deposit this 100 million with a PRC bank, which will issue a standby letter of credit in favor of your PRC company's offshore subsidiary. The subsidiary borrows against this LC in the same amount of deposit in USD. When the RMB is free to be remitted out, the thing is reversed. The standby LC is registered with state administration of foreign exchange (SAFE) and follow the procedure set up by SAFE, so it is perfectly legal. The cost is quite reasonable at present. Only limit is the bank's quota for this. Some banks have bigger quota and some have a small quota or none. But getting 300 to 500 million RMB out should not be that difficult. If you default on the offshore loan, your RMB is taken by the bank.

Not sure how many they can attract. Last time I was in the bay area, it seems that most of the computer programers are either Chinese, Indian or Russian. For the Chinese, at least the friends I know, they don't want to move back unless there is a big difference in pay. They are pretty well settled and the wives don't want them to come back. Don't think the Indians or Russians will come, either. The last time China Investment Corp. went to wall street to recruit, offering salaries ranging from US100K to 150k/yr and did attract a few laid off second year analysts who has since moved on again. Not sure how much Baidu can pay for senior engineers.

Face it, RMB is going to appreciate, gradually. Not sure about american jobs argument. How long ago was it that America built the last TV? I don't know. My boss at the last firm I worked for last in New York kept complaining the Japanese bankrupted his family business, a garment factory in Rhode Islands. I don't know enough history, but I thought even when Ross P. complained aobut the "sucking sound", manufactorying jobs were already gone. China did take a lot of manufactoring jobs, but not sure whether it took them from the US. Like it or not, a lot of the manufactoring jobs will go somewhere else, with or without the RMB appreciation. Labor costs have gone up quite a bit in the last year, in some cases double. Just returned from a trip to Saigonh and spent some time in Thailand. Instead of complaining, grab the opportunity and make a few bucks!

There is also a limit of transfer to 5 accounts from each offshore account. This is to curb people like me who use friends and relatives to convert 50k US a year. But you can still use multiple offshore accounts and tranfer to 250k total (5x 50k) for each account. To get money out, you can do the reverse or use other means to convert out. Once the money is in, there are some pretty conservative investment products such as libor linked (2.65% /yr for one to three months terms, interest and principal guaranteed, or longer term trust company products that give you about 6% yield). Real estate may be a good buy at year end or beginning of next year (right before Chinese New Year when developers have real tight cash flow problems), but right now it is too risky.

The construction is still on going, at least the collection of money for it. Under most city codes, B2 level underground is used for civil defense purposes. Developer has the right to use it, but title rests with the city. In cities where there is no need or no possible for build B2 civil defense area, the city collects a fee for it anyway.

Don't know if it is true or not. I guess will know about it tonight till Sunday night.

banks in china are completely different animals than their counterparts in the US. They lend based on quota and instructions from the central bank. In the beginning of the year some banks refused to allow draw down even for approved loans because the quota changed mid-way and they are out of quotas. This goes for residential mortgages as well as commercial loans. It is not based on commercial risk and return decisions.

Fascinating; it appears the banks' votes are in on this one... I found that statement intriguing as well TLB...a bank with someone with brains in control??? What a novel thought, thinks I. tsap seui