Timeline Posted June 20, 2005 Report Share Posted June 20, 2005 Interview Table for June 2005.Historical Average Table thru June 2005 Good luck to everyone for the next week. Need the dates in the upper left hand corner ofyour P3 and P4 letters please from 2004-2005. ..---------------------------------- Upcoming Interview Date Table ------------------------------------"..CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type.Pass.USC..Comments..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".krjchen...............12/21/04..05/13/05...06/01/05...162....143...K1...Yes..Yes...".nousername............01/09/05..05/13/05...06/02/05...144....124...K1...Yes..Yes...".wawafish..............01/31/05..05/19/05...06/03/05...123....108...K1...Yes..Yes...".hlin..................11/16/04..05/01/05...06/06/05...202....166...K1...Yes..No....".LiuXia's Husband......12/24/04..04/27/05...06/08/05...166....124...K3...Yes..Yes...".Ron Frank.............12/22/04..04/27/05...06/08/05...168....126...K3...Yes..Yes...".melvin................12/18/04..04/30/05...06/13/05...177....133...K3...Yes..No....".inxy..................01/11/05..05/21/05...06/13/05...153....130...K3...Yes........".Jfong988..............02/21/05..../../.....06/13/05...112..........K1...No........HK Police Cert Reqd".Dan R.................12/27/04..04/28/05...06/15/05...170....122...K1...Yes..No....".LouRose...............12/28/04..04/29/05...06/16/05...170....122...CR1*...........DCF".Feathers268...........12/29/04..05/13/05...06/16/05...169....135...K1...Yes..Yes...".john90................01/11/05..05/16/05...06/17/05...157....125...K1...Yes........".lizziedannypie........12/23/04..04/28/05...06/21/05...180....126...CR1*.Yes..No...DCF".jinqutierrez..........01/28/05..05/21/05...06/22/05...145....113...K1..............".yuehan123.............02/19/05..05/28/05...06/23/05...124.....98...K1...Yes..Yes...".DocMartin817..........01/28/05..05/25/05...06/28/05...151....117...K1..............".Bahan.................01/05/05..05/27/05...06/29/05...175....142...CR1.............".hayuesan..............12/08/04..04/27/05...06/30/05...204....140...K1................--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"".vincent...............02/25/05..06/03/05...07/28/05...153.....98...K3................--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------" ..................................Historical Average from P3 - P4 - IV (Interview Date)..................................-----------------------------------------------------.....Month(s).(2005)......#..of...One Month Average (days)...Three Month Average (days)..---------------------...Inter...-------------------------...-------------------------....One.........Three.....views...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...Comments..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" January...................32......127......174.......47............................" February...................9......119......161.......42............................" March.......JAN - MAR.....23......127......171.......44.......126......171.......45..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" April.......FEB - APR.....12......114......155.......41.......122......165.......43" May.........MAR - MAY.....15......107......158.......51.......118......163.......45" June........APR - JUN.....19......112......147.......35.......111......153.......42..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" July........MAY - JUL.............................................................." August......JUN - AUG.............................................................." September...JUL - SEP................................................................---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" October.....AUG - OCT.............................................................." November....SEP - NOV.............................................................." December....OCT - DEC................................................................---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...---------- ............................Historical Average from P3 - P4 - IV (001 Data - Interview Date)..................................-----------------------------------------------------.....Month(s).(2005)......#..of...One Month Average (days)...Three Month Average (days)..---------------------...Inter...-------------------------...-------------------------....One.........Three.....views...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...Comments..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" January............................................................................" February..........................................................................." March.......JAN - MAR.....12......129......180.......51..............................---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" April.......FEB - APR.....37......120......160.......40.......122......165.......43" May.........MAR - MAY.....25......123......171.......48.......122......167.......45" June........APR - JUN.....55......129......162.......33.......125......163.......38..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" July........MAY - JUL.............................................................." August......JUN - AUG.............................................................." September...JUL - SEP................................................................---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------" October.....AUG - OCT.............................................................." November....SEP - NOV.............................................................." December....OCT - DEC................................................................---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...---------- ThanksNooneufo & Mark Link to comment
Timeline Posted June 20, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2005 Info Update: I will try to post the P4/Interview Prediction Table this morning. If not it will be completed this evening. I will change the predictions to a more conservative "estimate". This estimate will be refined over the next few weeks. Sorry for the delay, since returning from China in late April I have been working 80 hour weeks. It will slow down a bit now. I must read the posts for the last 2 weeks to find new timeline information. I metion this because I know I will miss a number of members timelines in this week's tables. Please let me know if I have incorrect or missing information, If you have the time, please PM or e-mail the "Timeline" member ID for timeline updates. Sorry I have not kept up with these in the past two weeks, I promise to do so now. And thanks for those members that have contacted us with their timeline updates. Mark Link to comment
Timeline Posted June 21, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2005 First pass at the updated P4/Interview Prediction Table for 4th Week of June 2005 This prediction table is more conservative then Nooneufo's previous predictions. Hey, nooneufo and his fiancee has experienced interview success, my wife and I are lost between the NVC and GZ !!!!! This is a first pass and will be refined during this week, with a final version ready for next week's post. This is a straight forward prediction formula. Using the past three months of history from CFL (see History Table above) the predictions were calculated from the member's P3 date. Modifications for the following two issues were included: P4 assumed to be issued on weekday only (MON - FRI)Interview date on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday only. I recall when attending ACS hour in April, the Immigrant visa interviews will soon/now only assigned on these three days (can't remember if this would happen with the move to the new site ???). This table now includes all cases. I have added CR1 cases but the predictions require refinement. We are struggling with meaningful predictions given the dearth (my new word for the day !!!) of historical data. Many variations will be incorporated, including 001 timelines (weighted) and varying times depending on neariness to average expected P4 time. We will iinform you of all variations. Members with long waits for P4s (top of the Prediction Table) please let us know when good news arrives. Your P3 dates does not fit into our estimates so we cannot accurately predict your P4/Interview dates. I believe the delays are mainly from "Name Check Delays". Sorry for the delay and change in prediction format. I should have time this week to complete what needs to be done. I am formally coding all the prediction logic into Excel so Nooneufo and myself can use the information seamlessly no matter who updates it. And most important, I was not smart enough to absorb all of Nooneufo's great work. So when Nooneufo has the opportunity, he will learn me his magic !!!!! We both hope this helps you all !!! ..------------------------------ P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table -------------------------------............................................-----Projected-----............CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3.P4..Type..Comments..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------""...........Chad&Tong.............10/04/04..../../......./../..................K1....."...........Zingaro...............10/28/04..../../......./../..................K1....Name Check Delay"...........markandyuping.........12/29/04..../../......./../..................K1....."...........June03................01/11/05..../../......./../........................."...........Littleturtle..........01/28/05..../../......./../..................K3....Name Check Delay..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" August....F & L.................03/07/05..06/27/05...08/08/05...154....112...K1....."...........RICHARDLOVESPING......03/08/05..06/27/05...08/08/05...153....111...K3....."...........alaskagypsy...........03/11/05..06/30/05...08/09/05...151....111...K1....."...........mild bill.............03/15/05..07/04/05...08/15/05...153....111...K3....."...........dailyview.............03/18/05..07/07/05...08/16/05...151....111...K1....."...........riki3742..............03/21/05..07/11/05...08/22/05...154....112...K1....."...........huang.................03/22/05..07/11/05...08/22/05...153....111...K1....."...........buffalopaul...........03/26/05..07/15/05...08/24/05...151....111...K1....K2"...........billv.................03/28/05..07/18/05...08/29/05...154....112...K1....."...........ngatl15...............03/28/05..07/18/05...08/29/05...154....112...K1....."...........DavidZixuan...........03/28/05..07/18/05...08/29/05...154....112...K1....."...........Annie Ray.............03/29/05..07/18/05...08/29/05...153....111...K3....."...........impatient.............03/27/05..07/15/05...08/29/05...155....110...K1....."...........xulei601..............03/30/05..07/19/05...08/30/05...153....111...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" September.Luo_Bin_&_Jialu.......04/05/05..07/25/05...09/05/05...153....111...K1....."...........pkfops................04/08/05..07/28/05...09/06/05...151....111...K1....P3 mix-up by GZ"...........rosyanne..............04/07/05..07/27/05...09/07/05...153....111...K1....."...........aquach................04/07/05..07/27/05...09/07/05...153....111...K1....."...........Jason+Joanna..........04/07/05..07/27/05...09/07/05...153....111...K1....."...........jtaylo69..............04/11/05..08/01/05...09/12/05...154....112...K1....."...........Brian Sharon..........04/12/05..08/01/05...09/12/05...153....111...K1....."...........Leefisher3............04/12/05..08/01/05...09/12/05...153....111...K1....."...........James.................04/15/05..08/04/05...09/13/05...151....111...K3....."...........esun41................04/16/05..08/05/05...09/14/05...151....111...K1....."...........Jocelyn...............04/20/05..08/09/05...09/20/05...153....111...DCF...."...........wulongtea.............04/20/05..08/09/05...09/20/05...153....111...K1....."...........amerchin..............04/20/05..08/09/05...09/20/05...153....111...K1....."...........baogg.................02/14/05..08/12/05...09/26/05...224....179...CR1...."...........joenamy...............04/09/05..08/18/05...09/27/05...171....131...CR1...."...........Inxsfan...............04/28/05..08/17/05...09/28/05...153....111............---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" October...ohioboy...............04/15/05..08/24/05...10/05/05...173....131...CR1...."...........Steve_and_Qingging....05/18/05..09/06/05...10/18/05...153....111...K1....."...........Mark62................05/27/05..09/15/05...10/25/05...151....111...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" November..tenfootalbino.........05/21/05..09/29/05...11/08/05...171....131...CR1...."...........blsqueaky.............05/19/05..09/27/05...11/08/05...173....131...IR1...."...........ed_and_ying...........06/17/05..10/06/05...11/15/05...151....111...K1....."...........Linbar................04/12/05..10/10/05...11/21/05...223....181...CR1...."...........Mengxin...............06/04/05..10/13/05...11/22/05...171....131...CR1...."...........mlspyl................06/04/05..10/13/05...11/22/05...171....131...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" December..lynne.................04/27/05..10/24/05...12/05/05...222....180...CR1...."...........SongDaJiang...........04/26/05..11/07/05...12/19/05...237....195...CR1...."...........James.................05/09/05..11/04/05...12/19/05...224....179...CR1...."...........markdannie............05/17/05..11/14/05...12/26/05...223....181...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" January...eeyore................05/09/05..11/18/05...01/02/06...238....193...CR1...."...........bubbafred10...........05/27/05..11/23/05...01/04/06...222....180...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" June......UtahMale49............06/03/05..11/30/05...01/11/06...222....180...CR1...."...........goneflying2000........06/10/05..12/07/05...01/18/06...222....180...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------" If I missed anyone, please let me know. ThanksMark Link to comment
Dan R Posted June 21, 2005 Report Share Posted June 21, 2005 Add No I didn't go and yes passed to our timeline Link to comment
david_dawei Posted June 21, 2005 Report Share Posted June 21, 2005 These predictions are more reasonable than the previous ones for now.. thanks. Link to comment
dailyview Posted June 21, 2005 Report Share Posted June 21, 2005 My P3 was received March 18.Thanks Link to comment
pkfops Posted June 22, 2005 Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 I agree a more conservative estimate is in order due to the relocation. It will be interesting to see the P4 activity for the next two to three weeks. I predict a short slowdown followed by a "push" to get things through. Maybe the good part will be the VOs will have more time to review and approve cases during this period. Link to comment
kfman Posted June 22, 2005 Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 Timeline, just to let you know, my interview is actually Wednesday the 29th. Thanks.. Link to comment
Timeline Posted June 22, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 Michael: The Interview Table has been corrected. I apologize, you had already sent me your correction. I feel bad for messing up something as important as a member's interview date, particularly when you informed me !!! I made a handwritten sheet with a number of timeline additions/corrections but lost it. If anyone else's information is incorrect please let me know. Mark Link to comment
Luo_Bin_&_Jialu Posted June 22, 2005 Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 Hey! Can't you move ours up sooner than September....I mean...if we're gonna fantasize...at least make it appetizing... Seriously, thanks for your efforts. We appreciate them. It makes the time pass quicker... Rob Link to comment
Timeline Posted June 22, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 Added the P4/Interview Predictions for CR1. See the Prediction Table above.This is a first guess, I only have a handful of data points to use. Base numbers of days from P3 to P4 = 131 (20 more days than K1/K3). The CR1 P3 dates are based on three known dates available to the petitioner: P3 date: Case Completed at the NVC (NVC automated message)P3 date: Case forwarded to Guangzhou by the NVC (NVC automated message)P3 date: Case received & entered into the computer at Guangzhou by the Consulate (call DOS, speak to an agent) Here is the math for CR1 "P4-P3 days" depending on your P3 stage: P3 to P4 days = 131 + 56 (1 week for NVC to forward case + 7 weeks for case to reach Guangzhou)P3 to P4 days = 131 + 49 (7 weeks for case to reach Guangzhou)P3 to P4 days = 131 This might be a little "too" conservative. So later this week I will check for additional data on 001. I will also include this refinement for the "three colors" (red, blue, green) we use for the K1/K3 predictions. By the way my wife's case was finally received by GZ and entered into the computer, it only took nine weeks (64 days) !!!!! Mark Link to comment
Jason+Joanna Posted June 22, 2005 Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 Actually, I was kind of hoping for Early September. That way I could use the Labor day weekend as part of my vacation to see her. However, on the other hand I was very excited to see the other prediction of August 10th. Link to comment
markndannie Posted June 22, 2005 Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 Just curious as to why the cr1 times are longer than the k1 or k3? Thought that once it was sent by the NVC to Guz that the process was the same?? Link to comment
Li'sZhangfu Posted June 22, 2005 Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 Would you please add me to your timeline.Thanks,Rich Link to comment
goneflying2000 Posted June 22, 2005 Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 MarkPlease add me to the CR-1 timeline Thanks Link to comment
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