Only 10% get visas?

[jhammer]

I get the impression that proximity of divorce and age differences are two of the bigger reasons for denial. If it's true that the interviewer has often made their mind up before the interview, then those issues should be addressesed beforehand if possible.

 

Tom B

 

Strictly on anecdotal evidence, financial reasons seem to be an overwhelming factor in denials. Jim mentions it later in the thread and I think it cannot be overemphasized how important to have your financial ducks in a row especially if you require a sponsor.

 

jim

One could create a visa approval calculator just on CFL member data alone. Probably about 20 variables would have to be collected from each applicant. The only information needed that came from GUZ would be the fact of white or pink in each case, nothing more. It would only have relevance for CFL members, and can be used by CFL members not yet interviewed to estimate their chances of approval ( white or pink). This is no different than what people are doing now in their heads, except this would be applying real analysis, to understand the OBJECTIVE data, putting pen to paper, doing the math to come up with a reliable estimator of success. Questions raised by people on this forum would have sound answers.

 

How much does a recent divorce contribute to you chance of denial ? ( < 30 days = 2.4 times , < 90 = 2.1 times),

How much does age difference increase your chance of denial ? ( > 5 years apart = 1.3 times, > 10 years apart = 2.1 times, > 20 years = 4.5 times ). I would even volunteer to tabulate the data.

Edited January 5, 2009 by jhammer (see edit history)

[Yi_&_Me]

Numbers are great. If you are honest with them, they will always be honest with you. Problem with trying to reach an "estimated chance of success" calculation is this is way too heavily influenced by the human factor that you will never be able to take into account.

 

How will you account for outliers? Will they be discarded? Will you run the ASTM to make sure that they are a true outlier? Same rules for K-1/K-3/CR-1? More emphasis placed on prior marriages/divorces for the spousal visas? Different sub-categories for English ability? Differing stats for each provence?

 

The empirical data is available, but the human factor remains an unknown variable that you will never be able to quantify in an equation.

 

Did the VO not hear correctly the answer given? Does the VO think that certain areas are more inclined to fraud and did that influence their decision? Was your loved one nervous the whole time? Seems that small items have lead to denials.

 

Each case is weighed on its own perceived merit. If what the GUZ peolpe have stated before is true, each case is not reviewed extensively prior to the interview but briefly scanned just before the interview.

[Guest Rob & Jin]

i think "me" sums it up quite nicely.

[david_dawei]

This is no different than what people are doing now in their heads, except this would be applying real analysis, to understand the OBJECTIVE data, putting pen to paper, doing the math to come up with a reliable estimator of success. Questions raised by people on this forum would have sound answers.

Your idea has been done on a few levels in the past; A good number of years ago, statistics were used to estimate when to expect your P3, P4 and interview to the day. This helped push members to maintaining timelines better and understanding how to figure some of it out themselves.

 

When I took over the 'stat's, I decided to shift towards understanding the timelines for trending (is it getting slower or faster) and mostly to review the results (ie: pink vs blue vs white). There is still out there a timeline showing everyone's interview and a link to their report of the interview, and a separate one for blue slips to see the trend for that. But I stopped this at towards the end of 2007(?).

 

When I wrote the interview FAQ (the first FAQ), I reviewed every interview for two years and pulled together the most frequent questions, denials, issues, etc. I do believe that this allows most people to have a starting point on figuring out what hazards they can anticipate or possibly avoid on some level. But they have to understand their own case better than anything else and apply some care based on those issues.

 

But here is the problem: To make the best of your case, one really needs all this info prior to filing. Develop a long term plan for your case from filing, to communication, to visits, to preparation; but most will not discover it till much later in the process or not get serious till they have the blue slip in hand.

 

So, while a statistical model *could* be developed, it would lack too many variables that cannot be easily addressed since a USC didn't address it in the petition; Or sometimes doesn't discover some issues till the blue slip; the beneficiary answered wrong or never disclosed something; One VO treats a case differently than another VO; or sometimes there is profiling or focus shifts at the consulate (this latter issue was the motivation to do some trend analysis and we were able to spot trends).

 

For this reason, I think it's better to collect for frequency and trend to keep people up to date on what's going on. But I would not attempt to put a % chance of passing. That really would setup people for emotional dependence on a number and then we loose sight of the issues behind the numbers, IMO. Tell them what to expect is best for the petition; for the P3; for the interview questions/issues. Let them prepare for the issues.

 

In the end, one can lead a horse to the water but cannot make him drink...

[ricaltman]

I would agree that a big age difference and recent divorce are two of the main reasons for denial. Ying and I are within 5 years of eac other in age, and while I was recently divorced I included lots of proof that we had been separated for over four years, and that the only reason for not being divorced before was separating our finances.

I do consider us very lucky to have gotten approved so easy after reading all the stories on CFL.

I am 61, she is 50. I don't know whether that would be considered a big difference or not. Eye of the beholder I suppose. She had been divorced 20 years, myself only 15 months at the time of the interview. My ex and I were separated 15 months before the divorce. The only "proof" I had was the final decree and the intial filing which was about a year before my fiancee met. Finances are not a problem, believe me. I have plenty of secure income and a home that's paid for. The interviewer actually said all of the paperwork was fine. She didn't like the timing of my divorce and our meeting. My fiancee stayed in the interview area and talked to several of the girls applying for the same visa and they were all denied.

[david_dawei]

I am 61, she is 50. I don't know whether that would be considered a big difference or not.

no. I think particularly among the ages mentioned, that is more common as well.

Edited January 5, 2009 by DavidZixuan (see edit history)

[Guest jin979]

i think the most important things are that both you and her/him are totally honest with eachother about all past so you can prepare your case strongly. be honest and complete in paperwork. address weakness before interview if possible at ACS and ACH and promote strenghts at interview.

each case is their own and needs first both of the couple to share with eachother and work together. if one hides things, then if embassy knows this then may cause troubles.

communication with vo is key its not bus tickets, hotel reciepts that matter but evidence of real relationship together. visits communication photos, good documents etc.

last interview question to you if you where vo what would your view be if petininor is not there ? may be important. if you cant be there explain this in evolution letter or in faxes/email to GZ before interview. my point is dont leave a door open for them.

good luck to all

[steveandrong]

I would agree that a big age difference and recent divorce are two of the main reasons for denial. Ying and I are within 5 years of eac other in age, and while I was recently divorced I included lots of proof that we had been separated for over four years, and that the only reason for not being divorced before was separating our finances.

I do consider us very lucky to have gotten approved so easy after reading all the stories on CFL.

I am 61, she is 50. I don't know whether that would be considered a big difference or not. Eye of the beholder I suppose. She had been divorced 20 years, myself only 15 months at the time of the interview. My ex and I were separated 15 months before the divorce. The only "proof" I had was the final decree and the intial filing which was about a year before my fiancee met. Finances are not a problem, believe me. I have plenty of secure income and a home that's paid for. The interviewer actually said all of the paperwork was fine. She didn't like the timing of my divorce and our meeting. My fiancee stayed in the interview area and talked to several of the girls applying for the same visa and they were all denied.

i completely agree with David that the age issue should not have been any problem...

 

my case was as such...my wife moved out in jan. 2006...i first became aquainted with rong in may 2006....filed for my divorce in june 2006....met rong face to face for the first time in aug. 2006....finalized my divorce nov. 2006....after being separated fo about 7 years, rong got her divorce may 2007 and we filed the k-1 and (k-2? or k-3?) for the children in july 2007...but, i had also sent a letter (not an email) to guz to describe in depth all the details of our relationship, divorces etc...each case has its own little quirks and is unique in its own way...same is for VO's....what may be perfectly acceptable for one VO, may be entirely unacceptable for another....they see each case in a different light and make issues of somethings that are perfectly fine and not an issue to other VO's....so you can see, with our case, the separations, divorces and filings was not an issue (we had other issues with bringing 2 children...dna tests), hence, my opinion that you can never outguess guz and what they will be looking at in your case, just they will be looking for anything that appears to be a weakness in your case and then will be looking to exploit that weakness...

 

all i can say is you have found the best website to get as much help and information as possible to help thwart off what may be possible delays...i only wish i had found this site more soon that i had...i think i could have maybe avoided some pitfalls that later plagued us....and i really pity those who do not know of this resource and go it alone....i am sure the visa approval rate is very very much lower for those that go it alone

[ricaltman]

last interview question to you if you where vo what would your view be if petininor is not there ? may be important. if you cant be there explain this in evolution letter or in faxes/email to GZ before interview. my point is dont leave a door open for them.

That concerned me. I read somewhere that I could not be at the interview, so I didn't go to Guangzhou. I'll be at the next one.

[BilLing]

for what it's worth....Ling's interview was 123008...white...following day at the hotel she heard of 300 applicants that day, 200 were denied.....do not know the spread of blue and white.....could have been immigrant included as well....

 

food for thought....