HOUSE PRICES PLUNGING...

[Guest Mike and Lily]

save your pennies guys its going to get cheap in the next year.

 

Of course by next year the US Dollar will be worth only pennies so either way, you lose.

[DMikeS4321]

I predicted it would happen and here it is... Tony did you bail out in time???

 

 

HOUSE prices in Beijing dropped 19.67 percent in December from the previous month, China's Central TV reported.

 

The average residency price dropped to 12,180 yuan (US$1,676) per square meter from 15,162 yuan. Prices in Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chongwen and Xuanwu, the districts with the highest house prices, slumped to 18,401 yuan per square meter from 23,467 yuan, the CCTV report said yesterday, quoting SouFun Holdings Limited.

 

Many local property companies had to sell homes with free decorations and appliances due to the slump in sales, according to a Beijing property company, which sold only 10 percent of its new houses in Zhaoyang District since October.

 

Transactions in Beijing's secondhand house market shrunk 8.2 percent in December, Beijing's official online real estate trading Website said, which described the slump as abnormal.

 

House prices in Shenzhen and Guangzhou began to drop in October. Transactions shrank more than half in October, the biggest drop in three years. The average price in Guangzhou plunged 20 percent in December.

 

Is this compared month-to-month or from previous the previous year? That's an important distinction.

 

This sounds much worse than my area (NorCal) and it's bad enough up here. My wife mentioned something of the same in Nanning.

 

Oh well, there is one constant; what goes up, must come down...

[rogerluli]

I predicted it would happen and here it is... Tony did you bail out in time???

 

 

HOUSE prices in Beijing dropped 19.67 percent in December from the previous month, China's Central TV reported.

 

The average residency price dropped to 12,180 yuan (US$1,676) per square meter from 15,162 yuan. Prices in Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chongwen and Xuanwu, the districts with the highest house prices, slumped to 18,401 yuan per square meter from 23,467 yuan, the CCTV report said yesterday, quoting SouFun Holdings Limited.

 

Many local property companies had to sell homes with free decorations and appliances due to the slump in sales, according to a Beijing property company, which sold only 10 percent of its new houses in Zhaoyang District since October.

 

Transactions in Beijing's secondhand house market shrunk 8.2 percent in December, Beijing's official online real estate trading Website said, which described the slump as abnormal.

 

House prices in Shenzhen and Guangzhou began to drop in October. Transactions shrank more than half in October, the biggest drop in three years. The average price in Guangzhou plunged 20 percent in December.

 

Is this compared month-to-month or from previous the previous year? That's an important distinction.

 

This sounds much worse than my area (NorCal) and it's bad enough up here. My wife mentioned something of the same in Nanning.

 

Oh well, there is one constant; what goes up, must come down...

 

But does it follow that what goes down, must come up...

 

My prediction would be that with the falling wages and economy in the US...housing prices may never recover to pre-housing crash levels...

[SheLikesME?]

I won't tell my wife about all of this. She could have sold her house last year, but opted to rent it. It will be vacant just before the olympics. Hmmm.

[rogerluli]

A new article from China Daily on house prices...

 

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-01...ent_6402872.htm

[chilton747]

These fall in prices are affecting the major cities now. It is reasonable to think that it will trickle down to the smaller cities but I wonder. My wife tells me that the smaller cities will not be affected as the price was fairly low to begin with. Food for thought Roger.

[rogerluli]

These fall in prices are affecting the major cities now. It is reasonable to think that it will trickle down to the smaller cities but I wonder. My wife tells me that the smaller cities will not be affected as the price was fairly low to begin with. Food for thought Roger.

 

Never doubt your wife Charles...

 

I agree with her...I think the second and third tier cities will not see these tremendous drops because they have not seen the tremendous run-ups... Just one of the reasons, but not the most important, we decided on smaller cities...

[chilton747]

These fall in prices are affecting the major cities now. It is reasonable to think that it will trickle down to the smaller cities but I wonder. My wife tells me that the smaller cities will not be affected as the price was fairly low to begin with. Food for thought Roger.

 

Never doubt your wife Charles...

 

I agree with her...I think the second and third tier cities will not see these tremendous drops because they have not seen the tremendous run-ups... Just one of the reasons, but not the most important, we decided on smaller cities... B)

 

The only thing I regret is that she tried to get me to invest in a Shenzhen house a couple of years ago but I wouldn't listen.

[GZBILL]

These fall in prices are affecting the major cities now. It is reasonable to think that it will trickle down to the smaller cities but I wonder. My wife tells me that the smaller cities will not be affected as the price was fairly low to begin with. Food for thought Roger.

 

Actually, it is putting downward pressure on second and third tier cities. Although prices in these cities are "low," they have had the same incremental increases as big cities.

 

Look at, for example, Qingyuan. Prices there are, for better units, about 4k RMB per m2. Three years ago they were 1.8k. Now they are starting to drop.

[chilton747]

These fall in prices are affecting the major cities now. It is reasonable to think that it will trickle down to the smaller cities but I wonder. My wife tells me that the smaller cities will not be affected as the price was fairly low to begin with. Food for thought Roger.

 

Actually, it is putting downward pressure on second and third tier cities. Although prices in these cities are "low," they have had the same incremental increases as big cities.

 

Look at, for example, Qingyuan. Prices there are, for better units, about 4k RMB per m2. Three years ago they were 1.8k. Now they are starting to drop.

 

If they drop at the same incremental rate then the total RMB value of the drop would be approximately what percent?

[IllinoisDave]

So if someone owned an apartment in say Shenzhen, would it be prudent to hang onto it for awhile or sell it now before prices fall even further?

[DMikeS4321]

These fall in prices are affecting the major cities now. It is reasonable to think that it will trickle down to the smaller cities but I wonder. My wife tells me that the smaller cities will not be affected as the price was fairly low to begin with. Food for thought Roger.

 

Actually, it is putting downward pressure on second and third tier cities. Although prices in these cities are "low," they have had the same incremental increases as big cities.

 

Look at, for example, Qingyuan. Prices there are, for better units, about 4k RMB per m2. Three years ago they were 1.8k. Now they are starting to drop.

 

If they drop at the same incremental rate then the total RMB value of the drop would be approximately what percent?

 

I have to admit that I can't quite get my head around this one. If housing prices are dropping (my Wife says they are UP in Nanning, running around 4000-5000 per m2) those drops could simply be reflecting the higher value of the RMB, no? Fewer RMB per unit of housing would reflect a stronger RMB?

 

I don't get it, but then I never have really understood the R.E. value thingie...

[Corbin]

So if someone owned an apartment in say Shenzhen, would it be prudent to hang onto it for awhile or sell it now before prices fall even further?

If prices are truly falling now it will be next to impossible to sell it now unless it is in an area that is in high demand and the place is in great shape, better than the rest. Now this is all all my own opinion and what is also happening around where I live.

[rogerinca]

These fall in prices are affecting the major cities now. It is reasonable to think that it will trickle down to the smaller cities but I wonder. My wife tells me that the smaller cities will not be affected as the price was fairly low to begin with. Food for thought Roger.

 

Actually, it is putting downward pressure on second and third tier cities. Although prices in these cities are "low," they have had the same incremental increases as big cities.

 

Look at, for example, Qingyuan. Prices there are, for better units, about 4k RMB per m2. Three years ago they were 1.8k. Now they are starting to drop.

 

 

Yes Bill, this makes the most sense to me.

 

Unless a property is in a very inaccessible location, the market will not allow a great disparity in price.

 

It is like water flowing to seek its own level. Or air pressure flowing from a high to a low.

 

If the major market rises or falls dramatically, surrounding markets will soon follow suit.

 

While I watched the US prices start to slide this past summer, and at the same time I watched the red hot acceleration of the RE market in the Guangzhou/Huadu region, I told my wife that it was not sustainable. I told her, that at some point, there would not be enough people with that kind of cash on hand for a down payment, let alone the monthly payment; especially among the younger, newly married.

 

She looked at me as if I was drinking that nasty tasting Chinese wine/vodka.

 

This past week, the local rag in my region, The Sacramento Bee, reported that housing values had fallen 20% in the Sacramento and surrounding counties region. There is no end in sight in the short, or mid terms.

 

I just didn't think the China market would also drop so fast/soon this year.

 

Maybe their red hot stock market, will also be in for a correction, like ours did in 2001 ??

[tsap seui]

I just got off a very rewarding 2 hour conversation with the little rabbit and this topic was one of the big ones in our discussions.

 

Until tonight she has been very touchy about me, even remotely, mentioning my going to China to live, and maybe teaching english....my head has the lumps to prove it ...but I planted the seed, firmly, a month or two ago.

 

Tonight, I found the right moment to, sublimily, edge into the subject of what is happening in america as she was talking about things she was seeing on Chinese TV.

 

Add in the fact of what she is seeing how the americans in Guano (GUZ) treat her with her visa (after all our hard work preparing), her staying on top (and fear of) the falling dollar to the RMB, her talking to our son's teacher yesterday about american's teaching english in his school, and....I got the chance to water and fertilize the seed I planted months ago...even gave it some sunshine. Hot damn!!!!

 

I've been saying how this process is making me re-evaluate myself as an american and my evolving personally from this last straw on my back from the american government.

 

We're still hoping she can come to america, and get the "freedom to travel" green card. It's already been cast for her to have a room and area in my ex-wifes New Age shop and we already have people waiting for her to get here and teach them Chinese, as well as sell small gifts from China, paint fingernails, sell herbal medicines, and those Chinese teas. Heck she can do all that when she gets here. No need to wait to study english..and it's just small time anyhow, maybe it'll take off or maybe it'll just be play money, but she will be busy as soon as she wants to be.

 

TONIGHT, I finally got approval to send the proceeds from my house to China, when it sells. She saw the exchange rate of the money I sent today, and said "Oh, my God...america money more and more small". Yep...it is ain't it?

 

In 2001/2002 the Aussie dollar was 2 to 1USD, Canadian dollars were like slugs and now look at them both. And the Yuan...well, no need for me to tell you guys where it's at since September 2006 (for example).

 

I tell ya what...I've kept my sense of humor through all this bullshit from Guano, the DOS, sending useless letters to Congressmen, and the president..even trying to use my volunteered combat background as leverage...only to see in the DOS letter I got, that some old american woman with Guano is the one who holds our american future in her hands, and we'll have NO RECOURSE to her decision... BY LAW...oh yeah, maybe I can get the Attorney general to look into it...and how many years do you think that would take??

 

I am not bitter at all, I am just taking it all in and evolving. I've turned in my Vette, Monday will turn in my '06 Avalanche, and selling my Harley on Wednesday...meanwhile...my beloved old glory...she's frozen in the mud and can't even flap anymore...that sucks yaw, but that's just the way it is. I can understand anyone that wants to take offense to that, as I served my time in sustained hardcore combat for your right to do so.

 

Man, I feel like a new man tonight

 

America...love it or leave it.....well, I've loved it a damn long time, but I may be leaving it in a couple of years. How long does it take to get a ten year green card? If the lil' rabbit is even allowed to come over here

 

I hope she can get the green card so we can travel at our leisure, but the next house I buy....it ain't gonna be in america, bubba.

 

tsap seui