nooneufo Posted March 21, 2005 Report Share Posted March 21, 2005 Since there is an Interview everyday, will we get daily reports from Guangzhou? Congratulations to last weeks interviews and overcome interviews.Let me know of changes and additions.(actual P3 to P4 received is as reported, not corrected for Monday/Tuesday Theory)We are not going to forget.Delayed--------------P3----------Status?Maui & China------06/27/04-------2nd name check delayMari--------------07/15/04-------2nd name check delayJpj936------------08/06/04Alex-----------------------------12/08/04 Interview/Blue slip/Case review Waiting to hear about these people. Let us know what happened.CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slipAhhming-----------07/16/04---11/30/04---01/27/05---195-------137---------??------???------Blue/Pendingrogerluli---------10/22/04---02/22/05---03/09/05---138-------123---------K1------No-------Blue/PendingMike Xiao---------10/28/04---02/08/05---03/11/05---134-------103-----K3/CR1/CR2--Yes------Blue/Processing Review Listed by upcoming Interview.CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slipDrew21------------09/23/04---01/25/05---03/21/05---179-------124--------K1------No---------WhiteNYViking----------09/22/04---02/10/05---03/22/05---181-------141--------K1------No---------Whitesting88-----------09/26/04---01/28/05---03/22/05---177-------124--------K1------No---------WhiteBeijingjenny------09/14/04---02/15/05---03/23/05---190-------154Preg/DCFK3------No---------WhiteMike_M------------09/21/04---02/07/05---03/23/05---183-------139--------K1------No---------WhiteJohn & Hai Yan----09/03/04---01/25/05---03/24/05---184-------126--------K1------No---------Whitebeijingjj---------??/??/??---??/??/??---03/25/05---???-------???--------K3------??---------WhiteJames & Veronica--10/13/04---02/09/05---03/25/05---163-------119--------K1------No---------WhiteYave20B-----------09/25/04---01/25/05---03/28/05---184-------122--------K1AnimatorMark------09/21/04---01/25/05---03/29/05---189-------126--------K1Yvonne & Stan-----09/21/04---01/24/05---03/31/05---191-------124--------K1Amberzhu----------09/29/04---01/31/05---03/31/05---183-------124--------K1MRMC--------------11/??/04---03/16/05---04/06/05---???-------112--------K1/K2G-man-------------11/21/04---03/14/05---04/11/05---141-------113--------K1BandJ-------------10/31/04---02/28/05---04/12/05---163-------120--------K1boba--------------11/17/04---03/14/05---04/14/05---148-------117--------K1---Interview cancelled due to NVC paper lossnjbernie----------11/02/04---03/02/05---04/15/05---164-------120--------K1jual_3------------??/??/??---02/28/05---04/18/05---???-------98---------K1nooneufo----------11/26/04---03/01/05---04/18/05---143-------95---------K1larrynicholas-----11/16/04---03/01/05---04/21/05---156-------105--------K1Dogfish-----------11/22/04---03/14/05---04/27/05---156-------112--------K1cliff-------------11/20/04---02/28/05---04/28/05---159-------100--------K1da64---Delayed----12/15/04---03/16/05---04/28/05---134-------91---------K1hank--------------12/20/04---03/25/05---05/26/05---157-------95---------K1 Most Recently received P3 Interviews. Listed by P4.CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days-----P3 to P4jual_3------------??/??/??---02/28/05---04/18/05---???-------98cliff-------------11/20/04---02/28/05---04/28/05---159-------100larrynicholas-----11/16/04---03/01/05---04/21/05---156-------105nooneufo----------11/26/04---03/01/05---04/18/05---143-------95njbernie----------11/02/04---03/02/05---04/15/05---164-------120Dogfish-----------11/22/04---03/14/05---04/27/05---156-------112boba--------------11/17/04---03/14/05---04/14/05---148-------117---Interview cancelled due to NVC paper lossMRMC--------------11/??/04---03/16/05---04/06/05---???-------112da64---Delayed----12/15/04---03/16/05---04/28/05---134-------91G-man-------------11/21/04---03/14/05---04/11/05---141-------113hank--------------12/20/04---03/25/05---05/26/05---157-------95 This list reflects my Monday/Tuesday theory and earliest guess.November-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months dataZingaro-----------10/28/04---03/21/05yuan95------------11/11/04---03/21/05 December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months datajgrier5-----------10/28/04---03/21/05jgrier5-----------11/01/04---03/21/05jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/21/05Squid-------------12/07/04---03/21/05Chad&Tong---------12/07/04---03/21/05dmaddox74---------12/07/04---03/21/05jimglot-----------12/08/04---03/21/05vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/21/05Markd-------------12/22/04---03/21/05Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/21/05DanR--------------12/29/04---03/28/05Bahan-------------12/01/04---03/21/05Bahan-------------12/29/04---03/21/05Bahan-------------01/05/05---03/28/05 January--------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months dataKeith-N-Min-------01/05/05---04/04/05lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/04/05melvin------------01/05/05---04/04/05Liuxia's Husband--01/06/05---04/04/05Feathers268-------01/07/05---04/25/05nousername--------01/09/05---04/25/05June03------------01/11/05---05/09/05LouRose-----------01/11/05---04/25/05inxy--------------01/15/05---05/09/05krjchen-----------01/15/05---04/18/05john90------------01/20/05---04/18/05DocMartin817------01/28/05---05/09/05Littleturtle------01/??/05---Need P3 in computer date February--------------P3-------Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months databenfanfan---------02/02/05---05/23/05F & L-------------02/24/05---06/06/05Jfong988----------02/25/05---06/06/05vincent-----------02/25/05---06/06/05pkfops------------02/26/05---06/06/05 March-----------------P3-------Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months dataGhostrider--------03/06/05---06/06/05mild bill---------03/08/05---06/08/05Menqxin-----------03/08/05---06/06/05mlspyl------------03/10/05---06/06/05mlspyl------------03/24/05---06/13/05alaskagypsy-------03/11/05---07/13/05Chinese Wife!!!---02/14/05---06/06/05Chinese Wife!!!---03/11/05---06/06/05dailyview---------03/18/05---04/22/05RICHARDLOVESPING--03/23/05---06/27/05boba--------------03/24/05---06/06/05 If the P3 date listed is not the one in the computer at GZ, let me know it if you want a more accurate prediction. If it is the date you sent the P3, I would add a week or two.(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)Color code for K1 and K3 sending P3 to Guz(Top color most accurate)Red = P3 entered in ComputerBlue = P3 received at GUZGreen = P3 sent to GUZPink = P3 received from GUZOrange = P3 uncertainColor code for K3/CR1/IR1 sending ds-230 to NVC(Still working on accuracy, need more data)Brown = DS-230 Sent to NVC or ReceivedPurple = Case Complete at NVCGray = DS-230 At GUZ from NVC Additional Note: Shifted time line guesses to a longer value to account for Guangzhou being closed May 2nd, 3rd, 4th and the 30th. I am assuming they won't speed up, but they could. Just as an experiment, since more people have been posting more accurate time lines, I applied the P4 to Interview times to the following people because they have the most up to date status on where their P3 is. Except the CR1's, which is a test guess.If they get their P4 dated on Monday or Tuesday (and other too numerous to mention caveats). I wouldn't put any money down, just a preliminary idea of mine, which came to me as I was riding my bicycle home from the lab where I had just finished the 25th substance of a series of derivatives......December-------------P3-----Guess of P4------Guess of Interviewjgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/21/05---The week of April 25th or 04/28/05vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/21/05---The week of May 9th or 05/10/05Markd-------------12/22/04---03/21/05---The week of May 2nd or 05/05/05Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/21/05---The week of May 16th or 05/16/05Bahan-------------12/29/04---03/21/05---The week of May 16th or 05/18/05I keep forgetting to mention, that anyone who would like my spread sheet, PM me your email address and I will send it to you. Lots of colorful confusing charts, plenty of time lines...over 80. Link to comment
goneflying2000 Posted March 21, 2005 Report Share Posted March 21, 2005 For CR-1 are you figuring about 3 months from completion at NVC to receiving P4 from GZ? Thanks Link to comment
nooneufo Posted March 21, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2005 goneflying2000,I am basing the CR1 guesses based on these two CFL member time lines and their placement in the list. olemanoman1950 reports 9/23/04 Case Complete after the NVC gets the ds-230 on 09/03/04. The two K1's before and after him show the following number of days from ds-230 at NVC to the Interview date.181 K1179 K1186---olemanoman1950 (using the ds-230 at NVC date)184 K1177 K1 Mike Xiao reports the same format, 10/28/04 case complete after NVC receives the ds-230 on 10/06/04. The two K1's before and after him show the following number of days from ds-230 at NVC to the Interview date.137 K3 Guz138 K1156---Mike Xiao (using the ds-230 at NVC date)163 K1164 K1Uncorrected data (using NVC completed date)CFL Name-------------P3----------P4--------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----The matching day of the weekolemanoman1950----09/23/04-----01/25/05-----03/08/05---166-------124-----Thursday---Tuesday---TuesdayMike Xiao---------10/28/04-----02/08/05-----03/11/05---134-------103-----Thursday---Tuesday---Friday Here is the list of everyone in p3 date order since August 2004. Here you can see NVC Completed date for their times to fall in line with the P3 to P4 times.(Raw numbers not corrected) Type #days from P3 to P4?? 125K1 129 ?? 128K1 125?? 125K1 129?? 119?? 119?? 120K3 134 GuzK1 142 K2 K1 114K1 119K3 145 GuzK1 143K1 134K1 106K1 133K3 154 Guz DCFK3 98 GuzK1 132K1 121K1 127K1 126K3 117 GuzK1 139K1 128K1 116K1 141K1 124K3 124 NVC olemanoman1950 K1 122K1 124K1 119K1 124K1 124K3 109 CR1/Guz DCFK1 123K3 103 CR1/CR2 NVC Mike XiaoK1 120K1 117K1 100K1 112K1 112 K2K1 95K1 91 So I am considering these two dates and placing them in the time line order based on the K1's around them. As of last week the P3 to P4 average is 100 days, then another 50 days to the interview, around 140-150 days. Will this hold true? Only the you-know-who knows.A basic answer to your question is I am guessing 100 days, just over three months. Last four months shows they speed up on the P4s an average of one week per month. I am currently assuming this is going to continue, although the two Mondays off in May has me concerned. Link to comment
DaveR Posted March 21, 2005 Report Share Posted March 21, 2005 Good luck to everyone who has their interview this week. I hope that only white slips come out of GZ. Dave Link to comment
frank1538 Posted March 21, 2005 Report Share Posted March 21, 2005 Listed by upcoming Interview.CFL Name-------------P3--------P4------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----Type--USC in GZ?--Color slipDrew21------------09/23/04---01/25/05---03/21/05---179-------124--------K1------No---------WhiteNYViking----------09/22/04---02/10/05---03/22/05---181-------141--------K1sting88-----------09/26/04---01/28/05---03/22/05---177-------124--------K1Beijingjenny------09/14/04---02/15/05---03/23/05---190-------154Preg/DCFK3Mike_M------------09/21/04---02/07/05---03/23/05---183-------139--------K1John & Hai Yan----09/03/04---01/25/05---03/24/05---184-------126--------K1beijingjj---------??/??/??---??/??/??---03/25/05---???-------???--------K3James & Veronica--10/13/04---02/09/05---03/25/05---163-------119--------??I've been exercising my fingers, practicing typing "congratulations". Good luck everybody. Link to comment
Zingaro Posted March 21, 2005 Report Share Posted March 21, 2005 I'm having trouble understanding the disparity in individual timelines. A number of people who sent in P3's as much as a month after we sent in our P3 documents have already received their P4s. As far as I can tell, there's nothing unusual about our case. But all I can get out of GZ (by email) is "name check is incomplete." Can anyone offer any insights into the differences in individual timelines? Richard Link to comment
nooneufo Posted March 21, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2005 Zingaro,I can only offer what I see from the previous time lines that people post. Very few post the dates their "namecheck" is complete. While your time is seemingly late, I note the following. The date I have you down is the date you mailed the P3. The differences in the times is due to which date people report. It does take time for them to get it and enter it into the computer, and we know that your wait time does not start until that happens. For example, if they did not enter you into the computer until say November 25th, I calculate based on the previous peoples times, it could still be reasonable not to expect a P4 for few more weeks. We can see that there is easily a 30-45 day difference if your file happens to be on one end or the other of the line on a month by month basis. This means I think it would be reasonable to see up to a two month difference at times, depending on who got the last cup of coffee in the coffee pot that day.We also know from many people before, that what they tell you on the phone, or what they email you, may be different from what is happening. Some are told they are waiting for a few months more, then next week they get the interview. I would say concern is expected, but you may have to wait another month. However, we also know you probably won't get a p4 until the name check is completed.None of this probably helps you, but I would say patience is the watch word for now. Give it some more time.I would also recommend the advice from da64, which is to check both by email and by calling DOS. They lost some of his papers and did not tell him. Link to comment
jgrier5 Posted March 21, 2005 Report Share Posted March 21, 2005 I am still waiting Nooneufo. Confirmed that my case was complete back in November and that my name check was completed in January...waaaaaaaaaaaaa Link to comment
nooneufo Posted March 22, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 jgrier5,Only for you would I do this, because you are special. December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months data jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/21/05------110 daysjgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/28/05------117 daysjgrier5-----------12/01/04---04/04/05------124 days If the CR1's are following the same pattern, and I find it hard to think they are in a different pile, since everyone else gets an interview in two weeks or less if they are business and that has not happened to you or anyone else. The guess of this week is based on recent data. The next two guesses, are still optimistic and based on the previous months data. We know if your file is in the top or bottom, this can affect when you get to know (P4), and really we are only in week three of this month. Guessuming of course that CR1's follow the same pattern.The question of which pile you are on, is important because the numbers hint that this matters, but without enough accurate time lines for computer entries it is difficult to pin down when this happens. I wish I could read and write Chinese, because if someone were to get this from the 001 forum (Matching accuracy), maybe we could get more accuracy, but I have not been able to explain the need for it too well to my SO, who would like me to put more time towards her, weird huh?And finally, because they say June or July, they are talking about the interview. Let us guess an Interview of June 1st. Average recent notice of P4 is 50 days ahead of that. That means first or second week of April. I assume they are being conservative. Hello, if we look at the 124 day wait time, it is the first week of April for a P4. Now I don't think we have enough evidence, but I am starting to get the impression you are sometimes a little impatient, nothing specific mind you. Link to comment
vibes1313 Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 No P-4's this week? Link to comment
Cody Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 nooneufo, Time to rethink some of the estimates. Maybe GUZ will spit out a few P4's before the month is over. Link to comment
nooneufo Posted March 24, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2005 While I would reconsider the estimates, I have learned that it is best not to do so until Saturday at least, because some people just don't report, or like me, are unable to get the info from DOS until the p4 arrives in the mail first. This is also why it is all important to have the date your P3 is entered into the computer, and the date written on the actual P4, not when you recieved it. It is the only way to get closer. After all, I only had less than ten proper time lines up until the last five accurate ones out of 80. Imagine what we could know if more people would report, even if they only know some of their info. Every bit helps.Below is the first set of optimistic dates for the ones this week who are in red, and the two CR1's who are waiting. The days you can compare to the previous months data. If they are not going faster, then next week would match the fastest they have been since a year ago. Even if they do not receive any next week, it is still within the time they have been sending them out for the week after that. I am not doing those in green because there can be way more date fluctuation, because it is unknown when it got into the computer, and so I simply add the closest 10-14 day interval. Unless someone has not posted, and if there is no jump, we could easily not see a P4 until April, but it is way to early yet, since my own time line was one of those two week jumps. If they really wanted to bribe me, I needed at least a month. I'm easy, but not cheap. Whats missing? MORE TIME LINES!!! Come on people, put your time lines on your signatures, you benefit, we benefit, everyone benefits, and everyone can write letters on how this wait is an outrage. And some day, maybe there will be no wait at all and your interview will be scheduled with in a week of its return from name check......oh, I'm awake now. This week.....really early. December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months datajgrier5-----------10/28/04---03/21/05---144jgrier5-----------11/01/04---03/21/05---140jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/21/05---117 vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/21/05---91Markd-------------12/22/04---03/21/05---89Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/21/05---84 Bahan-------------12/01/05---03/21/05---110Bahan-------------12/29/05---03/21/05---82Bahan-------------01/05/05---03/28/05---82 Next week....still kinda early. December-------------P3-----Guess of P4 Date Based on previous 3 months datajgrier5-----------10/28/04---03/28/05---151jgrier5-----------11/01/04---03/28/05---147jgrier5-----------12/01/04---03/28/05---124 vibes1313---------12/20/04---03/28/05---98Markd-------------12/22/04---03/28/05---96Icebreaker--------12/27/04---03/28/05---91 Bahan-------------12/01/04---03/28/05---117Bahan-------------12/29/04---03/28/05---89Bahan-------------01/05/05---04/04/05---89 So, unless some out there is lurking, it could be a while. Then again, could be a surprise. You know who knows. Link to comment
lizziedannypie Posted March 24, 2005 Report Share Posted March 24, 2005 Hey nooneufo, I just called the DOS last night. Nothing is new. I don't know if I can receive the P4 in the begining of next month. Maybe we need to rethink of my p4 date? Lizzie Link to comment
nooneufo Posted March 24, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2005 lizziedannypie,Every week I think the same things, but somehow I find a way to be optimistic for everyone. Mostly because I think that they have to do something to fix their problems. Anyway, as I had said before, this weeks projections were base on the most optimistic pattern, and unless someone posts something soon, it looks like we might have to go all the way back to the longest wait time averages of 120 days. I have listed for you the possibilities, although we should use your computer entry date instead, if you can ask for it from DOS. It could easily be May instead.Come on Guz, we know you can do better! -------------------------------------------number of days from P3 to P4lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/04/05---89lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/11/05---96lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/18/05---103lizziedannypie----01/05/05---04/25/05---110lizziedannypie----01/05/05---05/09/05---124 May 2,3,4 is closedlizziedannypie----01/05/05---05/16/05---131 Link to comment
dailyview Posted March 24, 2005 Report Share Posted March 24, 2005 Just wantd to help with your timeline. Got P3 on March 11, returned P3 on March 18th. Waiting for P4 Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now