New Interview List

[cliff]

Is it possible to let our admin here make a time-line database which is similar to visajouney.com's?

[Dogfish]

yes, my P4 have been sent from GZ on March 14 as nooneufo estimated. Though I have not got it!!!

[nooneufo]

jgrier,

I would say that those cookies are horrid. Take them back and bake your own, its what I do. Double up on the chips.

Based on what you are telling me, I must move you on the list, but it is at the top of December.

 

Chinese Wife, From what I can tell from the few K3/CR1 time lines I have that the entry into the computer matters after the physical P3 (ds-230) papers are at Guangzhou. Then add the 10 to 14 days. But we should apply your theory as a check. I don't think it will work though because you are now including the variances of the mail, and how long the physical paper sits on a desk. Need a consistent sameness of K3 time line reports to compare. Since Guangzhou makes the schedule, it is what they do with what and when that needs to be tracked. What happens elsewhere does not apply, except for the additional wait.

 

But a surprise can happen, as I am glad Dogfish did get as predicted as they provided the critical date. Every one else until Markd is not providing the P3 entry date. Markd is my next bench mark, although I am thinking G-man will be next since I adjusted that date to fit the pattern. Lets hope I am wrong, and that these two closed days are catch up days.

 

For squid, sorry, but have to fit you into the latest data trend and they are slowing back to the 120 day profile. Also, the last four months on the pretty picture charts don't look good for the first week of each month, as if there is a reset of some sort. I hate to provide the bad news, but Guangzhou is also closed May 2,3,4, which will probably have an affect as well. I'll email you the latest, hang tough. My friends ask me how I deal with it, I tell them selective thinking. Don't think about it.

 

Amberzhu, thanks for the update, it does matter, and someday I will get it right once and for all. After your interview is done, you are in America or back in China, and the kids want the keys to the car.

 

And for the number watchers, very few people provide the date their name check is completed. However Dogfish did, and John and Hai Yan. Both are exactly 63 days from that date to P4. Which is exactly 9 seven day weeks. Hmmm, wonder if there is anything to that? For example, are name checks provide to Guangzhou on a specific day of the week, just as how it seems P4s are? Is there a time limit. Only more time lines will tell.

Think about this, CFL members on a per month basis seem to make up less than three percent of each months interviews for the K1/K3. Wonder how much more accurate, how much more we would find out, if we had ten percent? That is my hint to copy John and Hai Yan's time line of information on your own signature line. The two most important things for the stats regarding when a P4 might come is:

Date p3(ds-230) entered into computer at Guangzhou ( After its physical delivery)

Date name check completed

But over all, the more data, the more that can be figured out.

[nooneufo]

Yes, the difference in interview times fluctuates a lot, but the P3 to P4 time does not within the P4 assignment week, for k1's. Using the example, we are missing some key data, when olemanoman interview letter P4 is dated. How many days to interview is more difficult to predict with so few time lines, but the P4 is more important since it is when you will know when your interview is.

 

olemanoman1950 reports 9/23/04 Case Complete after the NVC gets the ds-230 on 09/03/04. If we took that date instead, it would up the P3 to Interview time 20 days, to 186. The two K1's before and after him show the following number of days

181

179

166---olemanoman1950

184

177

 

Mike Xiao reports the same format, 10/28/04 case complete after NVC receives the ds-230 on 10/06/04. if we added the 22 additional days it would now be P3 to Interview of 156 days.

The two K1's before and after him show the following number of days

137

138

134---Mike Xiao

163

164

Uncorrected data

CFL Name-------------P3----------P4--------Interview---#days---P3 to P4-----The matching day of the week

olemanoman1950----09/23/04-----??/??/??-----03/08/05---166-------???-----Thursday---???????---Tuesday

Mike Xiao---------10/28/04-----02/08/05-----03/11/05---134-------103-----Thursday---Tuesday---Friday

 

I take this to mean, that we are close to knowing what to use, just need some more same type of timelines that report the same things. I have not delved back into the K3's enough to find these, but maybe it is the entered into NVC date that gives more accuracy. What might tell us more with these two time lines? The P4 date of olemanoman1950. Mike Xiao shows 103, which is out of line with the neighbor p4's, unless we add the NVC date in, which would make it 125 days, in line with the neighbors, in line with the four month week to week average of 120 days plus or minus 5. I would not be surprised to learn if it was 01/03/05.

I am all for more information......I am not a number, I am a free man.

I also think we can attribute the month difference to where the stack stops and starts, since this is clear when you chart the data that they do this every month. If you are on the wrong side of that start and stop, there goes 30 days.

[vibes1313]

Thanks for the great advice nooneufo. I updated my timeline.

[boba]

nooneufo,

 

I call the DOS this morning and they told me Meixiang's interview is scheduled for April 14. She has not received the P4 yet but I would say you prediction was pretty darn close. I forgot to get a more accurate time for when the P3 was interred into the computer. I was too excite over the good news.

 

Thanks

 

Boba and Meixiang

[nooneufo]

boba,

Wow you had a long wait, good for you and can understand the excitement. We can at least say since you sent it off on a Wednesday they probably entered no sooner than the following Monday, which might put your time down to 112 days, or less if they entered it later. At least we are still seeing the time holding.

 

vibes1313,

Updated your dates with 105 days for now. Let us hope that the general trend continues and that time drops for December P3's as it generally has for the last four months. If things go as they have been, this seems like a good number, although it might be more realistic to use 112, but lets be optimistic.

[MarkD]

I need more data from the lurkers.

I don't know if this will help, but it is interesting. My fiancee sent me this today:

 

(snip)

 

I just read 001, several ladies got their P4.

Their Schedule is:

1st Lady got P3 on 11-29, the interview is 4-29;

2nd Lady got P3 on 12-4, the interview is 4-21;

3rd Lady got P3 on 12-4, sent back on 12-6, the interview is 4-12.

 

Why I am very surprised is that I know the 3rd lady who got her p4. Because she got the P3 about three or four days earlier than me. And her case arrived at Guangzhou one day earlier than me. I even sent message to her after I know she got the P3.

 

(snip)

 

Seems some ladies received their P4's quick. I wish they could send some luck our way!

[G-man]

Hey nooneufo, You might be aware that our P3 date is when it was mailed in, so I have no idea when it was entered into the computer. It's ironic, but I'm praying for a non-April interview, so I don't have to deal with the trade show. Thanx again for doing a fine job on "The List" Gary

[vibes1313]

I just read 001, several ladies got their P4.

Seems some ladies received their P4's quick.

Wow,

I've read post of some being caught off-guard by earlier than expected interviews. Maybe it is our turn. I had planned returning around the first of May. Maybe some us December P3s can celebrate Cinco de Mayo together Guangzhou-style. I know where I can pick up refried beans in Shekou.

[melvin]

melvin & Lianying

 

P3 received_________December 11, 2004

P3 returned_________January 5, 2005

P4________________ ?

Interview___________?

Visa________________?

[John & Hai Yan]

melvin & Lianying

 

P3 received_________December 11, 2004

P3 returned_________January 5, 2005

P4________________ ?

Interview___________?

Visa________________?

Melvin if you want to include your signature, her's how to do it. The more timelines we have the more everyone benefits.

 

At the top of the page click where it says "your control panel." Then when the next window opens, look on the left hand side where it says "Personal profile." Underneath that section, you will see the words "Edit my signature." Click on this and at the bottom of the page you can print your timeline. When you are finished be sure to click on the bar that says update my signature. That's it!

[da64]

Awsome news!!!! We got P4 3/16/05. Interview 4/28/05. Thanks for doing such a great job tracking - DA

[lizziedannypie]

Thank you ,nooneufo. I am darianstarfire's wife. I don't know if it matters much but we are DCF we are not K-1. You interview list makes me very happy though.

 

Elizabeth