February/March Interviews list

[da64]

Oh yes - and nice job putting together the numbers!!!

[nooneufo]

da64, now that you mention it, I think I did have you on the delayed list then I changed it because I read your sig line about the que, and I thought I made an error. But now I put you in the correct list, which I hope will soon be erased for all. You are right that it would skew the number averages, and for my own spread sheet I remove the ones that fall outside of the averages.

 

Squid, hey I'll show you mine if you show me yours. If you would like my excel spread sheet let me know, or if anyone does, PM me an email address and I'll send it. Don't know if it is readable though.

I base my stats on the idea that while a CFLer might be more prepared than the average petitioner, they are not likely to be receiving any special treatment, and so therefore the numbers are probably statistically good for what is happening at GZ. ( which is why I do the interpolated smoothing) I also base the speed up conjecture on the recent statement about visa processing in general that says the whole start to finish is to be brought down to six months within a year. For this to happen, GZ must speed up . I estimate they need to speed up an average of 20 days a month to bring them within the time frame. Like all government agencies, there are internal memos that happen that tell it what it must do within certain time frames. Since we have also heard there is supposed to be a new section opening up, with more visa processing capability as well, and the data we have, it all seems to be in agreement. To speed up, they must catch up, and that is what we see happening.

If we take the much larger view of the government in general is always slow to catch up to reality, which is China is clearly going to be our future close trading partner. One way or another, the visa process will reflect that. For example, two million Chinese tourists visited France last year. How long until various American tourist markets will be clamoring for a chunk of that? Projected flight increase for America/China routes for next five years is planned expansion five times the current amount. The visa dam is soon to burst. Just not for us at this stage. But we appear to be getting some cracks.

[MarkLuvsShuPing]

Noon - great job! Thanks, it looks like several of us are in GZ at the same time. Hope we all get white slips.

[Squid]

nooneeufo, I posted my Excel spreadsheet @

 

p3delay

 

I would love to take the time and put everyone's waittime on it going back at least a year. Maybe this weekend, I will have time.

[Mengxin]

We can trade arms with China now to build up the Military. The technology and economy are also growing rapidly. The embassy should have a quicker turn around time to follow suit, right. yea right. I suppose Love comes last.

Thanks for keeping the stats fellas. Very helpful.

[rosyanne]

WOW, thank you for the great work!

[nooneufo]

MarkLuvShuping

A vote for less wait times is a vote for a white slip for every CFLer.

 

Menqxin, I would put your name on the list, if I could figure out which day is the day to use. You folks doing these complicated things have my hat off to you. And to your suffering the wait.

 

Just some additional numbers, right now I am projecting my own interview date based on the latest trend as the earliest being April 12-15. With lots of hand waving, I calculate the chances for an interview on any particular day of the week as follows;

30% chance on a Tuesday

25% chance on a Friday

22% chance on a Wednesday

17% chance on a Thursday

4% chance on a Monday

I still show that most interviews seem to be set up or sent out on a Monday or Tuesday. I would guess a call to DOS on a Tuesday would tell you if that week it was done, if you are looking for a day to call (Wednesday in GZ). With enough numbers, we can predict whether the coffee is strong or weak at GZ on a rainy day.