Is This Process Getting Faster or Slower?

[hank]

Do you think that visa processing times at GUZ are improving, getting worse, or remaining about the same in the last year?

[frank1538]

Do you think that visa processing times at GUZ are improving, getting worse, or remaining about the same in the last year?  

Scan through the timelines, and you'll get an idea. My sense is that things are improving on the US side at the service centers, but have slowed down in GZ. My entire process (2/03 - 2/04) was split fairly evenly - about six months in the US and about six months at GZ.

[egolessvegan]

The process in Guangzhou has been very slow.

[Jeikun]

The answer to your question is "yes"

[hank]

I agree with everyone that has posted so far. Things state-side appear to be speeding up. But GUZ appears to be slowing to a crawl. I wonder what's going on.

[cosmiclobster]

I believe that a lot more people are going the fiancee visa route than ever before. This combined with budget cutbacks brought the process to a crawl. By my observations, the US side was way behind about 6 months ago. They fixed this with a lot more people on the job to speed up the process. This created a huge backlog on the china side. They have only recently stepped up the process on the China side, so when this is done, it could get back to a 6 to 9 month process start to finish. Until then, the people already in the queue will continue to be stuck in the logjam.

I started this process thinking it would take 6 months. Now I will be thrilled if it is done in 13 months!

[elcajongr]

It appears to me the GZ interviews are now very short for both the white slip and the blue. "If", that is true then I wonder if there is an effort to speed up the process? Is it just wishful thinking on my part or are they making an effort to reduce the backlog? With the holidays ahead the backlog will get worse unless the process is speeded up somehow. Since we don't know how many interviews are conducted each day we'll only know by the results a few months down the road.

[turtle]

The more things speed up at the service centers, the more strain it puts on gz-- hence the increasing backlog. We didn't hit a single snag in the process and it still took 13 months. Unfortunately our case arrived in gz just as the backlog got underway.

[jimglot]

I would have to agree. It seems the Stateside timeliness have shortened while Guz has been keeping it same pace. Like water after a good rain hitting the dam

 

 

Regards,

 

Jim

[hank]

I just hope that this is not a trend that will get worse.

[Martytb]

2 plus 2 equals 4. 4 plus 4 equals 8, logic my friends says more and quicker stateside approvals means a backlog in GZ, yes?

Folks, sit back and enjoy the show. When it is your turn at bat everything will change and life goes on.

Enjoy the ride, it don't last forever!

[John & Hai Yan]

I agree with everyone else. Here is some more evidence of the "slowing down" trend.

For January P3s there was approximately a two month wait from P3 to Interview Date.

For July P3's there will be an average wait of more than six months.

One person who received P4 on 11/29/04 will have a 213 day wait.

If the next batch of P4s comes out after Christmas the "minimum" wait time at GZ for everyone will begin to exceed 200 days.

The process is steadily and definitely slowing down.

 

 

I collected these from the timelines listed on CFL.

It gives a picture of the timelines from P3 to P4 to Interview Date.

 

P3-Return---Days-------P4-------- Days--- Interview---Total Days P3 to Int.

 

01/18/04-------28-----02/05/04-----42-----03/18/04---------72

01/19/04-------19-----02/07/04-----30-----03/08/04---------49

01/24/04-------39-----03/03/04-----41-----04/13/04---------80

01/31/04-------32-----03/03/04-----43-----04/15/04---------75

January Average from P3 to Interview------------------------69.0

 

02/02/04-------30-----03/03/04-----35-----04/07/04---------65

02/23/04-------36-----03/30/04-----51-----05/20/04---------87

02/23/04-------37-----03/31/04-----43-----05/13/04---------80

02/25/04-------94-----05/29/04-----12-----06/10/04--------106

02/25/04-------94-----05/29/04-----12-----06/10/04--------106

February Average from P3 to Interview-----------------------88.8

 

03/01/04-------26-----03/27/04-----53-----05/19/04---------79

03/10/04-------80-----05/29/04-----23-----06/21/04--------103

03/11/04-------80-----05/30/04-----23-----06/22/04--------103

03/13/04-------77-----05/29/04-----25-----06/23/04--------102

03/14/04-------76-----05/29/04-----09-----06/07/04---------85

03/15/04-------75-----05/29/04-----41-----07/09/04--------116

03/15/04-------75-----05/29/04-----25-----06/23/04--------100

03/15/04-------76-----05/30/04-----29-----06/28/04--------105

03/17/04-------97-----06/22/04-----29-----07/21/04--------126

03/23/04------112-----07/13/04-----20-----08/02/04-------132

03/24/04--------66-----05/29/04-----12-----06/09/04--------78

03/24/04--------91-----06/23/04-----35-----07/28/04-------126

03/25/04--------89-----06/22/04-----36-----07/28/04-------125

03/27/04--------88-----06/23/04-----35-----07/28/04-------123

03/29/04--------87-----06/24/04-----20-----07/14/04-------107

03/29/04--------86-----06/23/04-----33-----07/26/04-------119

03/29/04--------85-----06/22/04-----14-----07/06/04--------99

03/29/04-------109-----07/17/04-----41----08/27/04--------150

March Average from P3 to Interview--------------------------109.8

 

04/01/04------109-----07/19/04-----35-----08/23/04--------144

04/04/04------123-----08/05/04-----56-----09/30/04--------179

04/05/04--------77-----06/21/04-----16-----07/07/04---------93

04/05/04--------79-----06/23/04-----27-----07/20/04--------106

04/05/04--------79-----06/23/04-----29-----07/22/04--------108

04/05/04------103-----07/17/04-----30-----08/16/04---------133

04/05/04------100-----07/14/04-----44-----08/27/04---------144

04/06/04------101-----07/16/04-----19-----08/04/04---------120

04/07/04------100-----07/16/04-----38-----08/23/04---------138

04/07/04------101-----07/17/04-----40-----08/26/04---------141

04/12/04------115-----08/05/04-----28-----09/02/04---------143

04/21/04-------96-----08/26/04-----56-----10/21/04---------152

04/22/04------104-----08/04/04-----43-----09/16/04---------147

04/24/04------124-----08/26/04-----55-----10/20/04---------179

04/26/04------123-----08/27/04-----52-----10/18/04---------175

April Average from P3 to Interview----------------------------140.1

 

05/12/04------107-----08/27/04-----42-----10/08/04---------149

05/20/04------147-----10/14/04-----26-----11/09/04---------173

05/24/04------160-----11/01/04-----45-----12/16/04---------205

05/25/04------145-----10/17/04-----31-----11/17/04---------176

05/25/04------144-----10/16/04-----39-----11/24/04---------183

05/29/04------142-----10/18/04-----43-----11/30/04---------185

05/30/04------136-----10/13/04-----40-----11/22/04---------176

05/31/04------122-----09/30/04-----41-----11/10/04---------163

05/31/04------139-----10/17/04-----15-----11/01/04---------154

May Average from P3 to Interview-----------------------------173.7

 

06/05/04------149-----11/01/04-----39-----12/10/04---------188

06/18/04------139-----11/04/04-----53-----12/27/04---------192

06/20/04------162-----11/29/04-----51-----01/19/05---------213

06/21/04------133-----11/01/04-----29-----12/03/04---------162

06/21/04------151-----11/19/04-----47-----01/05/05---------198

06/25/04------129-----11/01/04-----32-----12/03/04---------161

06/25/04------132-----11/04/04-----35-----12/09/04---------167

06/27/04------127-----11/01/04-----49-----12/20/04---------176

06/27/04------?????????????????????????????????

June Average from P3 to Interview----------------------------177.7 days

 

07/03/04------150-----11/30/04-----35-----01/03/05---------185

07/05/04------147-----11/29/04-----36-----01/04/05---------183

07/14/04------138-----11/29/04-----43-----01/11/05---------181

07/17/04------107-----11/01/04-----38-----12/09/04---------145

07/17/04------136-----11/30/04-----55-----01/24/05---------191

07/18/04------137-----12/02/04-----42-----01/13/05---------179

07/19/04------133-----11/29/04-----59-----01/27/05---------192

07/20/04-------87-----10/15/04-----35-----11/19/04---------122

07/20/04------105-----11/02/04-----29-----12/01/04---------134

07/25/04------127-----11/29/04-----43-----01/11/05---------170

07/26/04------126-----11/29/04-----58-----01/26/05---------184

07/27/04------125-----11/29/04-----36-----01/04/05---------161

July Average from P3 to Interview-----------------------------168.9 days*

*This number will increase since 9 July P3's are still waiting for P4

[hank]

John,

 

It must have taken you forever to compile the data and averages. Thanks.

 

It shows that the backlog at GUZ is real, as the wait times have more than doubled from January to July.

 

But the good news is that it appears to plateau at around 170 - 177 days from May through July. So maybe this trend has stopped. Next month's figures will tell us a lot.

 

Marty has a good point too. We will get through this eventually and move on... it is just a matter of when. We'll try to stay positive together

 

[John & Hai Yan]

John,

 

It must have taken you forever to compile the data and averages. 0„2Thanks.

 

It shows that the backlog at GUZ is real, as the wait times have more than doubled from January to July.

 

But the good news is that it appears to plateau at around 170 - 177 days from May through July. 0„2So maybe this trend has stopped. 0„2Next month's figures will tell us a lot. 0„2

 

Marty has a good point too. 0„2We will get through this eventually and move on... it is just a matter of when. 0„2We'll try to stay positive together

 

Hank, I first posted this list in September and I have been adding to it every month. I think we will soon jump from a current six month wait (from P3 to Interview date) to a "minimum" seven month wait by the end of December. Olemanoman reported after a visit to the "Citizens hour" at the Consulate that GZ is now estimating a 6 to 9 month wait from P3 to Interview date. I think we can look for a bigger slowdown in the coming months.