Better Guess on # of applications

[perryf]

We had some discussions in the last couple weeks about number of visa applications. Someone posted on visajourney the meaning of the NVC case number (ex. GUZ2004700400).

 

GUZ means this is from the batch of numbers assigned to visa applications that will be processed in Guangzhou. The interesting part is that the last 3 digits refer to the number of the application for that day for that embassy.

 

So the above number ends in 400, meaning that this is the 400th application assigned a number for Guangzhou on day 2004700.

 

My case number ends in 300 something. So at least on Aug 18th, they assigned over 300 applications for visas from China a case number.

 

PF

[turtle]

There seem to be a lot of gaps between those numbers, though. When I tried to check the case status of the files near mine, I got back error messages.

 

The BCIS site does have statistics on the number of k1 from various countries, it would be interesting if someone plowed through it and found them (the site is not the most user friendly). I checked it once a long time ago, I think either Russia or China was #1...

[tonymasiello]

So the above number ends in 400, meaning that this is the 400th application assigned a number for Guangzhou on day 2004700.

So what day is 2004700??? Doesn't make sense to me....

[mike_m]

The visa information is published. It is a document called "2002 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics". It's published by Homeland Security, office of immigration statistics.

 

I found it on a BCIS website somewhere, but I don't remember the site

 

Ok, I googled it....

 

look here: http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/s...IMM2002list.htm

 

The 2002 book is the current edition, and there were 2252 fiancee` visas issued. This DOES NOT include Hong Kong, but there isn't a separate line for Taiwan, so it probably does include them. That means that less than 2252 fiancee visas were issued in Guangzhou in 2002. I think that's about five per workday.

[Jeikun]

That should only be approximatly 50% of the people interviewed. There's a pretty high refusal rate if I remember correctly. And weren't there several months in 2002 when no fiancee visas were issued?

[foebia]

"There seem to be a lot of gaps between those numbers, though. When I tried to check the case status of the files near mine, I got back error messages. "

---------------------------------------------------------------

 

Is there a site to check you case status?

 

Thanks

[turtle]

Hmm, actually I guess I was thinking about my NSC case number...

[foebia]

DOH!

[perryf]

the 700 is based on the Julian date. In their formula you need to add 500 to it. But I think you need to drop the 1000. So 700 + 500 = 1200. You drop 1000 so you end up with day 200. It would be day 200 of year 2004. That puts it sometime in August.

[beijingjenny]

Oh, that's way too much math first thing in the morning. And all of it isn't going to make the P-4 come any faster unless they start behaving in a mathematical and predictable way ...

[oregonknl]

Dean Hall posted a chrystal-clear explanation of the numeric dating system in GZ several months ago, and even as clear as his explenation was --- ( his posts are are ALWAYS clear an to the point) --- it still required a sharp mind on caffene to follow ....

 

...don't suppose thats what State intended... ~??

[turtle]

Ok, found the numbers...

 

stats

 

for 2003, the top 4 countries, combining immigrant and nonimmigrant:

 

K1.........K3.........Spouse (immigrant visa)

 

All countries..........28,295..........15,734..........184,741

Philippines..............3,311............1,744..........10,424

Vietnam..................3,819...............607............6,245

China......................2,198............1,030............6,922

Mexico ...................1,128............2,013..........42,990

 

So a total of about 10,000 people bringing over chinese spouses or fiance(e)s. I'm not quite clear on the "immigrant" visa type. Is that all CR1? Do those all go thru gz?

[beijingjenny]

*Everything* goes through Guangzhou ... unless they are already in the US somehow. My hubby will be getting CR-1, and will have to interview there.

[cosmiclobster]

This is my take on GUZ #'s

We got ours almost half way through the year and we are 7021XX.

Looks to me like the first 7 is an indicator for an immigrant visa, and that we were the 2,1XX petition filed in 2004. This would be about 4200+ petitions filed per year, or about 350 per month, or about 12 per day.

So if you got your GUZ # on Feb 1st, it should be around 700350.

Mar 1 = 700700

Apr 1 = 701050

May 1 = 701400

June 1 = 701750

July 1 = 702100

 

Can anyone confirm that their GUZ # falls within these ranges?

 

This will also help us in that we can know based on this:

It they are giving more than 12 interviews a day, they are catching up.

If not, they are falling more behind . . . . .

[tonymasiello]

Can anyone confirm that their GUZ # falls within these ranges?

Our GUZ number starts with a 5.

 

2004592***