The Revolution is Coming...

[rogerluli]

China insider sees revolution brewing JOHN GARNAUT

February 27, 2010

 

BEIJING: China's top expert on social unrest has warned that hardline security policies are taking the country to the brink of ''revolutionary turmoil''.

 

Well, it most certainly wouldn't be the first time that during China's 5,000+ year history a popular uprising destroyed a standing army and overthrew the government.

 

Quite right Bill...IMHO those who think all this is completely impossible are whistling past the graveyard...

[Sam and Fen]

China insider sees revolution brewing JOHN GARNAUT

February 27, 2010

 

BEIJING: China's top expert on social unrest has warned that hardline security policies are taking the country to the brink of ''revolutionary turmoil''.

 

Well, it most certainly wouldn't be the first time that during China's 5,000+ year history a popular uprising destroyed a standing army and overthrew the government.

 

Quite right Bill...IMHO those who think all this is completely impossible are whistling past the graveyard...

 

 

Just remember what happened in the Soviet Union.

[knloregon]

"...And what percentage of the populace has a big screen TV..."

 

Perhaps, Roger, a better question: what percentage doesn't have at least access to color TV? (vs. 10 years ago---even 5 years ago.. I'd be willing to bet its less than 10% at this point---including Tibet).

 

the point being, the material improvements in most lives make people less likely to revolt. As long as the shark of material progress keeps swimming forward, there is little incentive for "trash-it-all" dissatisfaction.

 

One of the unique traits of the Chinese, and all our SOs (over about age 35) is that they have all experienced real hunger---its part of their youth, family experience, family education---ingrained in their basic makeup----and affecting how they relate to material wealth. I think everyone in China, since there very little hunger now, has a real appreciation for a political system which dependably provides food.

 

In 180 degree contrast, the US has never in its history suffered famine. in the US, three squares per day is considered a right. We have no concept of being grateful for the food on our table. China is still living with multiple generations, grateful for a steady food supply.

[Sam and Fen]

 

One of the unique traits of the Chinese, and all our SOs (over about age 35) is that they have all experienced real hunger---its part of their youth, family experience, family education---ingrained in their basic makeup----and affecting how they relate to material wealth.

 

Correct. I agree with this.

 

I think everyone in China, since there very little hunger now, has a real appreciation for a political system which dependably provides food.

 

I do not agree with this. People are terrified of the government and that is why they do not say or do anything. Fear rules in IMHO.

 

[ShaQuaNew]

"...And what percentage of the populace has a big screen TV..."

 

Perhaps, Roger, a better question: what percentage doesn't have at least access to color TV? (vs. 10 years ago---even 5 years ago.. I'd be willing to bet its less than 10% at this point---including Tibet).

 

the point being, the material improvements in most lives make people less likely to revolt. As long as the shark of material progress keeps swimming forward, there is little incentive for "trash-it-all" dissatisfaction.

 

One of the unique traits of the Chinese, and all our SOs (over about age 35) is that they have all experienced real hunger---its part of their youth, family experience, family education---ingrained in their basic makeup----and affecting how they relate to material wealth. I think everyone in China, since there very little hunger now, has a real appreciation for a political system which dependably provides food.

 

In 180 degree contrast, the US has never in its history suffered famine. in the US, three squares per day is considered a right. We have no concept of being grateful for the food on our table. China is still living with multiple generations, grateful for a steady food supply.

 

 

That's right Kim. A lot of the Western press still thinks it's 1960. Alan posted figures in another thread in this forum, that even though the figures may be hard to corroborate, show a good picture of how much life in China has improved in the last 30 years.

[a2784]

There are a few people that think like Roger, meaning that the Chinese people are pissed because they aren't like the West, and ready to revolt. Too much windowpane in the 1960s I suspect.

 

 

I can only assume that Jesse did not bother to read the article or check out the credentials of the quoted expert... Been out in the sun too long I suspect...

Read the article. Saw this:

 

The latest edition of the newspaper Southern Weekend broke a two-decade taboo by publishing a photo of a youthful Mr Hu with his early mentor, former party chief Hu Yaobang, who was purged in 1987 for his liberal and reformist leanings. But Chinese internet search results for the names of both leaders were yesterday blocked for ''non-compliance with relevant laws''.

 

Then searched for both of these leaders on the internet and founds tons of available information about each one and about their relationship/background. Did all this from my apartment in China using a China ISP.

Edited February 27, 2010 by a2784 (see edit history)

[ChrisA]

Just some thoughts, is it forthcoming, maybe in the next 20 years a (Semi-Democratic Society). China looked at what happened when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, and saw all the problems the former East Bloc countries faced, which there still are to this day, which they are still trying to over-come, and said no way hell are we going to let that happen here.

 

Even though China still has tight control over everything within, one can feel that there is a shift/movement, to move at a slow and progressive pace to a newer China, IMHO.

[ShaQuaNew]

There are a few people that think like Roger, meaning that the Chinese people are pissed because they aren't like the West, and ready to revolt. Too much windowpane in the 1960s I suspect.

 

 

I can only assume that Jesse did not bother to read the article or check out the credentials of the quoted expert... Been out in the sun too long I suspect...

Read the article. Saw this:

 

The latest edition of the newspaper Southern Weekend broke a two-decade taboo by publishing a photo of a youthful Mr Hu with his early mentor, former party chief Hu Yaobang, who was purged in 1987 for his liberal and reformist leanings. But Chinese internet search results for the names of both leaders were yesterday blocked for ''non-compliance with relevant laws''.

 

Then searched for both of these leaders on the interest and founds tons of available information about each one and about their relationship/background. Did all this from my apartment in China using a China ISP.

 

Well mister Alan, you can flip my trigger and call me bubba. Pretty good find for a simple southern US boy.

 

[a2784]

Just some thoughts, is it forthcoming, maybe in the next 20 years a (Semi-Democratic Society). China looked at what happened when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, and saw all the problems the former East Bloc countries faced, which there still are to this day, which they are still trying to over-come, and said no way hell are we going to let that happen here.

 

Even though China still has tight control over everything within, one can feel that there is a shift/movement, to move at a slow and progressive pace to a newer China, IMHO.

 

First bold - Maybe true to some extent but in 1989 China was already opening up/moving to economic reform and had distanced itself from Russia in many ways.

 

Second bold - I would agree with this. They will continue to move toward a "Chinese version" of a govt. that suits them and it caused by people's desires, protests, and movements. It will probably have more freedom and openess then today and some similarities to a western democractic govt.

Edited February 27, 2010 by a2784 (see edit history)

[knloregon]

Yeah, good job Alan,

 

Just reminder, the Soviet model is entirely different from PRC. The Soviet Union --- from its founding --- could just barely keep its Soviet bloc states in line (Hungarian revolt of 1956..)---- different countries, different cultures--------even within the different countries.

 

China's ethnic minorities are small. and there is really no wide spread sympathy in greater China for either the Tibetans or the Uighurs. China is making it pretty clear to outside countries: Don't fu-k with our borders, and our internal matters ... Hil Clinton, and the Obama admn. do well to listen..

[GDBILL]

China insider sees revolution brewing JOHN GARNAUT

February 27, 2010

 

BEIJING: China's top expert on social unrest has warned that hardline security policies are taking the country to the brink of ''revolutionary turmoil''.

 

Well, it most certainly wouldn't be the first time that during China's 5,000+ year history a popular uprising destroyed a standing army and overthrew the government.

 

Quite right Bill...IMHO those who think all this is completely impossible are whistling past the graveyard...

 

Gotta agree with you, Roger.

 

While I'm not saying it will happen or even that it should, history does have a way to come back and bite people in the butt.

[GDBILL]

Imagine, Roggie stirring up another revolution.

 

 

Huh? Roggie?? No way!

[rogerluli]

Imagine, Roggie stirring up another revolution.

 

 

Huh? Roggie?? No way!

 

The Don is just a troublemaker...

[rogerluli]

China insider sees revolution brewing JOHN GARNAUT

February 27, 2010

 

BEIJING: China's top expert on social unrest has warned that hardline security policies are taking the country to the brink of ''revolutionary turmoil''.

 

Well, it most certainly wouldn't be the first time that during China's 5,000+ year history a popular uprising destroyed a standing army and overthrew the government.

 

Quite right Bill...IMHO those who think all this is completely impossible are whistling past the graveyard...

 

Gotta agree with you, Roger.

 

While I'm not saying it will happen or even that it should, history does have a way to come back and bite people in the butt.

 

Just what I think...It may never happen but I think it is made MORE likely by the government clamping down hard to try to make sure it never does...For every action an equal reaction...

[david_dawei]

seems to me that most of the time it was a despotic ruler whose actions caused too much burden on the people in some way. In some cases, it was not necessarily internal but non-chinese.