Taiwan takes a step toward China...

[rogerluli]

Taiwan's pro-China opposition were savouring their landslide election win on Sunday, hoping the momentum will carry over to presidential polls in March and lead to closer ties with the mainland.

 

The Kuomintang (KMT) party, who insist that better relations with China will help the island's stuttering economy, crushed the ruling party of President Chen Shui-bian, whose hardline stance on Beijing appeared to turn off voters.

 

Chen stepped down as head of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on Saturday after the drubbing at the polls but wasted no time Sunday lashing out at China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory.

 

"China shows no signs that it will ease its military threats, diplomatic suppression and two-handed economic strategy on Taiwan," Chen said before heading on a week-long mission to shore up ties with Guatemala and St Lucia.

 

"China is intensifying its 'dollar diplomacy' attacks on Taiwan and using all means possible to take away our allies. We cannot sit back passively... we have to step out for the international community to see Taiwan."

 

The KMT and its allies captured 86 seats in the 113-member parliament, compared to just 27 for Chen's DPP, setting the stage for the party's presidential front-runner Ma Ying-jeou to succeed Chen in March.

 

After Saturday's landmark win, Ma pledged to "push for a peace accord" with Beijing if elected.

 

China and Taiwan split at the end of a bloody civil war in 1949 between Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists and Mao Zedong's communists.

 

"It is clear that people are yearning for change after eight years of suffering," Ma said.

 

Ma, a former mayor of Taipei, has pledged to allow mainland tourists to visit Taiwan, and hopes to reinstate direct transportation, commerce and postal links that were cut off six decades ago.

 

A win in both the legislative and the presidential polls for the KMT could end years of political gridlock in Taiwan, one of the world's top 20 economies.

 

KMT party leaders including Ma travelled to northern Toliao on Sunday to honour Chiang Ching-kuo, the son of Chiang Kai-shek, who served as Taiwan's president from 1978 until his death 20 years ago, on January 13, 1988.

 

Chen meanwhile headed to Latin America, one of the main battlegrounds for Taiwan and China, which regularly accuse each other of luring allies away with "chequebook diplomacy".

 

Guatemala and St Lucia are two of 24 countries that recognise Taipei rather than Beijing.

 

The timing of his departure early Sunday led some to charge that he is trying to avoid the fallout from his party's crushing defeat at the polls -- a loss Chen described as the "worst setback" in the party's history.

 

The DPP was to meet Monday to choose a new leader, with its presidential candidate Frank Hsieh likely to assume the chairmanship as he tries to reverse the party's fortunes ahead of the March 22 presidential polls.

 

Analysts said that in addition to Chen's uncompromising attitude on Beijing, analysts said, the DPP also suffered at the polls from a series of graft scandals that touched the president's inner circle.

 

Chen's wife Wu Shu-chen was indicted last year on corruption and forgery charges, his son-in-law Chao Chien-ming was convicted of insider trading and his Vice President Annette Lu has been indicted for graft.

 

Chen was also named a suspect but escaped immediate prosecution because of presidential immunity.

 

"The people cast a no-confidence vote on Chen's eight years in office," Hong Kong-based political commentator Cao Jingxing told AFP.

 

"The DPP has to clean up the mess -- it will probably distance itself from Chen to save the party."

[rogerluli]

More on the whys and wherefores...

 

http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2008/01/why_the_kmt_won_big.php

[Tony_onrock]

Reunification is actually not such a good thing for either Taiwan or Mainland China.

Taiwan will lose its freedom and China will lose the last reason for making some progress in political freedom after it no longer to show the Taiwanese people.

Despite the win in the parliment, I still predict that Guomintang will not win the presidential election - separation of power.

[Dennis143]

Reunification is actually not such a good thing for either Taiwan or Mainland China.

Taiwan will lose its freedom and China will lose the last reason for making some progress in political freedom after it no longer to show the Taiwanese people.

Despite the win in the parliment, I still predict that Guomintang will not win the presidential election - separation of power.

Reunification hasn't ruined HK. I seriously doubt that it would be the ruin of Taiwan.

[Tony_onrock]

Reunification is actually not such a good thing for either Taiwan or Mainland China.

Taiwan will lose its freedom and China will lose the last reason for making some progress in political freedom after it no longer to show the Taiwanese people.

Despite the win in the parliment, I still predict that Guomintang will not win the presidential election - separation of power.

Reunification hasn't ruined HK. I seriously doubt that it would be the ruin of Taiwan.

Reunification has not ruined Hong Kong because Beijing need to show Taiwan that nothing bad really came out of being subject to Beijing rule. But after Taiwan there is no such need. You think Beijing will by then still tolerate "Long Hair" and his kind on the HK island? or simply allow million of people go on demonstration without at least rolling out some armored cars?

[rogerluli]

Reunification is actually not such a good thing for either Taiwan or Mainland China.

Taiwan will lose its freedom and China will lose the last reason for making some progress in political freedom after it no longer to show the Taiwanese people.

Despite the win in the parliment, I still predict that Guomintang will not win the presidential election - separation of power.

Reunification hasn't ruined HK. I seriously doubt that it would be the ruin of Taiwan.

Reunification has not ruined Hong Kong because Beijing need to show Taiwan that nothing bad really came out of being subject to Beijing rule. But after Taiwan there is no such need. You think Beijing will by then still tolerate "Long Hair" and his kind on the HK island? or simply allow million of people go on demonstration without at least rolling out some armored cars?

 

After enduring 40 years of martial law how much worse could life be under the PRC leadership??? Eventually it will be to Taiwan's benefit to return to the motherland for simple economics of scale. And if that doesn't work I can assure you that physical union is on the far horizon anyway. Taiwan is riding a plate which is being subducted under the mainland... Now this will take awhile... Imagine the speed with which your fingernails will grow 90 miles...

[Tony_onrock]

Green Island is a thing of the past.

Taiwan is a demoracy now. China has strong economic ties with a lot of places and that can certainly include Taiwan. However I would have to say that the majority of Taiwanese will not benefit from becoming a part of China. I mean what is the point? There are over 200k Taiwanese residing (calling it home) in Shanghai alone now. Unification of the people, like freedom of movement is already in existence (not from China to Taiwan) though. If the relationship between Taiwan and mainland can be really normal like between other nations, the traffic can be both directions and benefit both sides. Economic integration is not only happening between Taiwan and China.

If you go to Qing Dao, Da Lian and Shen Yang or even Shanghai, you will find entire developments filled with residents that are South Koreans. Singaporeans are all over the place too and they are Chinese too.

I know this is a sensitive subject, esp. in China. But we do have to be objective. A prosperous Taiwan with an armed force capable of defending itself is beneficial for all parties. As long as Japan stays out of it. I don't care if Taiwan goes independant or not.

[warpedbored]

I have read some theories about Taiwan and Japan forming an economic and mutual defense union. Don't know how feasible it is but one scenario I have heard is this is about the only way Taiwan could suck the US into a war with China. I think most would agree that the US wouldn't go to war with China over Taiwan. If Japan were to throw in with Taiwan however I think it is possible that China could attack Japan. The US would go to war with China over Japan. No doubt about it.

 

Probably a far fetched theory but not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

[rogerluli]

I have read some theories about Taiwan and Japan forming an economic and mutual defense union. Don't know how feasible it is but one scenario I have heard is this is about the only way Taiwan could suck the US into a war with China. I think most would agree that the US wouldn't go to war with China over Taiwan. If Japan were to throw in with Taiwan however I think it is possible that China could attack Japan. The US would go to war with China over Japan. No doubt about it.

 

Probably a far fetched theory but not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

 

When I first read this I thought Carl must have slipped a gear... But actually after further research it does have basis in fact. Japan controlled Taiwan from 1895 until 1945. During that period tremendous strides were made in Taiwan's development and modernization. There were problems with the native Taiwanese however. Today the DPP is seen as being friendly toward Japan, no doubt because they wish for independence and want nothing to do with China. The KMT is friendlier toward China.

 

The big stick is held by China though. I would suspect that just as China could never allow Taiwan to become independent, they would also never allow Taiwan to become extremely close to Japan... Every PRC Chinese I have ever spoken to says that TAIWAN IS PART OF CHINA PERIOD...

[rogerluli]

And more Taiwan-China news about the upcoming independence referendum which is seen as failing anyway...

 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...d=moreheadlines

[Guest knloregon]

Tony, are you Taiwanese? Interestisng comments...

 

From what I've read, the national frustration with Chen Shui-bian has been brewing for a long time---the family corruption, the bombast, and drama (trying to force the US to recogize Taiwan) ---first by approaching Laura Bush as a "head of State" ---at a party, then demanding to land in the US for refueling of his aircraft ---- (Bush admin. said sure----you can land in Anchorage Alaska..)

 

And naturally, KMT hate what he's done for cross-straits business, and China has plenty of international economic leverage to make things even worse if it wants too..

 

On the brighter side KMT's Ma is western educated (Harvard) --- and several of the "on deck" leaders in the Politburo (to step up when Hu Jintao retires) have degrees in law and journalism, which tend to be more tolerant than the technocrats.

[Dennis143]

Every PRC Chinese I have ever spoken to says that TAIWAN IS PART OF CHINA PERIOD!!!...

You can also include Tibet and Mongolia along with Taiwan with their sentiments, Roger.

[C4Racer]

Reunification is actually not such a good thing for either Taiwan or Mainland China.

Taiwan will lose its freedom and China will lose the last reason for making some progress in political freedom after it no longer to show the Taiwanese people.

Despite the win in the parliment, I still predict that Guomintang will not win the presidential election - separation of power.

Reunification hasn't ruined HK. I seriously doubt that it would be the ruin of Taiwan.

Reunification has not ruined Hong Kong because Beijing need to show Taiwan that nothing bad really came out of being subject to Beijing rule. But after Taiwan there is no such need. You think Beijing will by then still tolerate "Long Hair" and his kind on the HK island? or simply allow million of people go on demonstration without at least rolling out some armored cars?

 

The reason has nothing to do with Taiwan. It is the agreement between China and Britain. China must keep Hong Kong a seperate economic and democratic state for 50 years.

The transfer of power is a result of the Joint Declaration agreement forged in 1984 between Major's predecessor, Margaret Thatcher, and Beijing. Under the terms of the agreement, China is to grant Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy and let it keep its capitalist system for 50 years after the handover.

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9603/hong_kong/index.html

China understood this was great for them. They could watch and mimic a great economic power to help bring China in line with the rest of the world. Hong Kong is the wall street of Asia. China is reaping the benefits of keeping it separate.

 

Taiwan on the other hand does not have anyone to bargain the same kind of deal with Biejing. Besides, Hong Kong's deal has an end in sight. What's going to happen when it does end?

Edited January 18, 2008 by C4Racer (see edit history)

[Guest knloregon]

Interesting point Michael!

 

But I would argue that China, politically, is going to see HK slip somewhat from its control---The Democracy movement has been successful, and now China has conceded to democratic elections for the the SAR's top political post in 2017, and there will certainly be continued pressure to democratically elect a larger portion of the 60 seat legislature after that, I would think....so Beijing is faced with the possibility of the tail wagging the dog democratically----obviously, all of China will be watching.... this might turn out to be the best way for China, verrry slowly to assimilate democracy....

 

But on the Taiwan front-----if I were KMT in Taiwan--- I'd certainly be pressing China for a deal similar to HK... (several years ago, in the last year under Jiang, PRC approached Taiwan with such a proposal, but were rebuffed).

 

Hard to imagine a better economic, and indeed, social deal than what HK has today...

[Tony_onrock]

The same deal has been offered to Taiwan on many occassions and if people here recall the negotiations for HK you will see my point. At that time Deng, apart from the ecnomic benefits, openly proclaim that he wants to set an example for Taiwan, i.e. to set up a system that can be applied to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, call YI Guo Liang Zhi, or one country witrh two systems.