Linbar Posted September 29, 2005 Report Share Posted September 29, 2005 Hi Mark, Our interview has been scheduled for November 30. Thanks again for all of your hard work. It has been great to be able to view the time lines. Barry Link to comment
sailorboy Posted September 30, 2005 Report Share Posted September 30, 2005 Mark, You ol' rascal!! Called DOS today and, you guessed it, we have an interview date. It is Nov. 7th....so let's do a little comparison...you said we would get our P4 on 9/30...funny, DOS states it will be sent out tomorrow morning (hmmm, that makes it 9/30)...HE SCORES!!! Next you said we would have our interview appointment on Nov 14th, it's Nov 7th....what's with that??? Wow, I have been stunned all day long at the accuracy of the predictions...whoa! I had better settled down a little, my blood pressure is starting to rise beyond normal limits. Incredible job, Mark!! And yes, I'll update my VJ timeline as well. Thanks so much for your hard work!! Dave Link to comment
Jocelyn Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 You can update us on the list -- we just got our P4 today and our interview is set for November 15. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Link to comment
Guest Gene Posted October 1, 2005 Report Share Posted October 1, 2005 B) Congratulations All three of you Link to comment
Timeline Posted October 2, 2005 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2005 10/02/05 - 02:00 AM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)Zingaro : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!BareyJones : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!Glenn : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!LeeFisher3 : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!dailyview : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!JamesnYuHong : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!pkfops : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!ChristinaMiao : Interview date added.nick45 : Interview date added.TommyLovesCindy : Interview date added.RJZ+JCW : Interview date added.kaigaorui : Interview date added.HTW & OZ : Interview date added.Linbar : Interview date added.Jocelyn : Interview date added.sailorboy : Interview date added.Mengxin : Interview date added.mlspyl : Interview date added.F & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)Phnom : Addedhlguan : Addedpaula : AddedBillV_8-16-2004 : Added I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
LeeFisher3 Posted October 2, 2005 Report Share Posted October 2, 2005 Mark, Not sure how you would handle this one in the numbers, dailyview wasn't there but his dad showed up in his place. Lee Link to comment
Randy W Posted October 2, 2005 Report Share Posted October 2, 2005 Mark, you need to work on the P3-P4 time! That's where your prediction was off by an entire day! Excellent work! Thanks! Link to comment
Timeline Posted October 2, 2005 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2005 (edited) 10/02/05 - 10:15 AM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)Randy_W : Interview date added.F & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3). I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Edited October 2, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history) Link to comment
BillV 8-16-2004 Posted October 3, 2005 Report Share Posted October 3, 2005 Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table Some thoughts: Ten members have not received their P4 letter as of this time, which is later than the projected P4. While three are on the "fringe" between October and November, seven of the remaining ten are outside of the expected variance. They had expected interview dates in September. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This brings the "2nd name check" issue to the surface. Like many other members, I believe the "2nd name check" is the final requirement before the consulate placess the case in line to be scheduled for an interview. Again, like many other members, I believe "most" applicant "2nd name checks" are completed within a normal time period. Of coure this is no comfort to the applicant whose "2nd name check" has not been completed within a "normal" time period (2 - 6 weeks). This permits us to predict P4/Interview dates based on the P3 date. For most members the P3 date is the date most readily available. The "2nd name check" complete date is more difficult to obtain, and many members do not record this date. What we can deduce from the limited amount of data available, is that no member (that I know of) with a "2nd name check" completed date after June 2005 has been scheduled for an interview. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I believed the process was slowly but surely improving (getting shorter) and not getting longer (from P3 to P4). Only time and more data points will tell if the process will continue to improve. I have a slightly more agressive prediction formula (using the more recent data), but will not implement this, until I see next month's round of P4s. Base on this recent decrease in P3 - P4 time, I believe some of the projected December interviews will fall in November. I have changed the projected P4/Interview date formula due to the following conditions: 1. New information (data points)2. Using a different sampling period (we currently use a three month running average) This formula update has only slightly modified (shortened) the P3 - P4 time periods. I have adjusted the P4 date to reflect, the approximately five working days each month that the P4 letter is actually generated. Based on recent past history, I have chosen the last three days and first two weekdays of the prior month(s) before the month of interview to project the P4 date. For example: for interviews scheduled in November of 2005 the P4 dates are : September 28, 29, 30 and October 3, 4. I hope this method better reflects the Consulate's actual process. I have not changed the projected Interview date only the projected P4 date. The adjusted P4 date should better reflect "actual" P4 dates. A word of caution, if a member is close to the end/beginning of the monthly cycle, then the Prediction can be off by approximately one month !!! Only interviews schedule after September have the adjusted information. And unlike the Consulate, I have projected the Interview date based on earlier P3 date = earlier Interview date. I realize the Consulate fills up the monthly interview dates using a different method, but since I do not have access to this, I will use the "first in", "first out" method. I must update members on the table with new information and add members who are not on the table but now have P3 data. I know there are many more members who should be included on the Prediction Table, so please PM me if you have new information on your case. Thanks !!! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ..------------------------- Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table ---------------------------............................................-----Projected-----............CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type..Comments..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------""...........Chad&Tong.............10/04/04..../../......./../..................K1....."...........June03................01/11/05..../../......./../...........................---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" August....huang.................03/22/05..07/04/05...08/18/05...149....104...K1.......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" September.baogg.................02/14/05..07/19/05...09/06/05...204....155...CR1...."...........billv.................04/02/05..07/22/05...09/07/05...158....111...K1....."...........joenamy...............04/09/05..08/01/05...09/15/05...159....114...CR1...."...........jbray.................04/28/05..08/12/05...09/28/05...153....106...DCF...CR1..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" October...lisyzheng.............04/28/05..08/30/05...10/11/05...166....124...K3....."...........tenfootalbino.........05/02/05..08/30/05...10/12/05...163....120...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" November..UtahMale49............06/04/05..09/29/05...11/10/05...159....117...CR1...."...........Sarah1031.............06/13/05..10/03/05...11/21/05...161....112...DCF...CR1"...........Phnom.................05/04/05..10/03/05...11/23/05...203....152...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" December..eeyore................05/09/05..10/28/05...12/05/05...210....172...CR1...."...........Chad..................07/11/05..10/31/05...12/13/05...155....112...K3....CR1"...........raineedaze............07/15/05..10/31/05...12/15/05...153....108...K3....."...........Tian9426..............07/22/05..11/01/05...12/20/05...151....102...K1....."...........markdannie............07/16/05..11/01/05...12/22/05...159....108...CR1...."...........Toad..................07/23/05..11/02/05...12/27/05...157....102...DCF...CR1"...........Jay...................07/18/05..11/02/05...12/27/05...162....107...CR1...."...........Brucetb...............07/18/05..11/02/05...12/27/05...162....107...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" January...bubbafred10...........07/25/05..11/28/05...01/03/06...162....126...CR1...."...........goneflying2000........07/30/05..11/28/05...01/05/06...159....121...CR1...."...........singularis67..........08/03/05..11/29/05...01/10/06...160....118...K1....."...........hlguan................08/13/05..11/30/05...01/16/06...156....109...K1....."...........Meidon................08/18/05..11/30/05...01/16/06...151....104...K1....."...........critter...............08/19/05..12/01/05...01/19/06...153....104...K3....CR1"...........BillV_8-16-2004.......08/23/05..12/02/05...01/25/06...155....101...K1....P3 mix up..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" February..m-coon................08/26/05..12/28/05...02/02/06...160....124...K3....."...........Dennis143.............09/02/05..12/28/05...02/02/06...153....117...K1....."...........ouyyp.................09/03/05..12/29/05...02/08/06...158....117...??....."...........Carl..................07/21/05..12/29/05...02/09/06...203....161...CR1...."...........Chinky................09/06/05..12/30/05...02/14/06...161....115...CR1...."...........wolf190...............07/28/05..12/30/05...02/16/06...203....155...CR1...."...........usanalyst.............07/28/05..12/30/05...02/16/06...203....155...IR1...."...........rhour.................09/19/05..01/03/06...02/21/06...155....106...DCF...CR1..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"" March.....Paula.................09/28/05..01/31/06...03/08/06...161....125...CR1...."...........shyaushu..............08/18/05..01/31/06...03/09/06...203....166...CR1...."...........tlondon...............08/30/05..02/03/06...03/21/06...203....157...CR1......---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------" (#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)Color code for K1/K3/CR1/IR1 P3 or DS-230 at Guangzhou (Top color most accurate) brown.: K1/K3 = P3 received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)......: CR1 ..= Case received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)blue..: K1/K3 = P3 sent to Guanghou or received by Guangzhou.......: CR1 ..= Case forwarded by the NVC to Guangzhou. (IVR automated message from NVC)green.: K1/K3 = P3 received by CFL member or date on P3 letter.......: CR1 ..= Case completed by the NVC. (IVR automated message from NVC) Mark152459[/snapback]Thanks for adding me to your post 3 predictions, BillV_8-16-2004.......08/23/05..12/02/05...01/25/06...155....101...K1....P3 actually I believe I should be K-3/CR-1 since I have never filed a K-1 Thanks Bill Link to comment
fdeitz Posted October 3, 2005 Report Share Posted October 3, 2005 I'm new here - I've been lurking but never posted. Anyway, I'm happy to report Ani passed her K1 interview on September 28! We are now in her hometown of Rongshui visiting her family, and we will be flying back to the USA on October 8. Wedding is planned for November 23 so that some of my family members can make it. Here's our timeline: - K1 Timeline --01-11-2005.... I-129F to VSC01-18-2006.... NOA102-08-2005.... NOA202-28-2005.... Cleared NVC03-31-2005.... Received P304-04-2005.... Returned P308-01-2005.....P4 (date mailed)09-25-2005.....Arrive in GZ together09-28-2005.....Interview PASSED09-30-2005.....Travel from GZ to Nanning where Ani lives10-01-2005.....Travel to Liuzhou where her youngest brother lives10-02-2005.....Travel to Rongshui where the rest of her family lives10-06-2005.....Travel back to Nanning10-08-2005.....Return to US Together11-23-2005.....Wedding Fred Link to comment
Guest Gene Posted October 3, 2005 Report Share Posted October 3, 2005 Welcome Aboard Fred and Congratulations Link to comment
Timeline Posted October 3, 2005 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2005 10/03/05 - 02:20 PM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)fdeitz : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!jbray : Interview date added.lymeboy : Interview date added.F & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)BillV_8-16-2004 : Corrected I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
Timeline Posted October 7, 2005 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2005 10/06/05 - 11:15 PM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)lymeboy : CorrectedF & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)mnmext : Addeddiver1959 : Added I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information. ThanksMark Link to comment
Timeline Posted October 10, 2005 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2005 10/10/05 - 05:15 PM (EDT) Updates: Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)Tian9426 : Interview date added.F & L : Any word on the interview ??? P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)flv : Addedbearbear : Added This will be the last post for September. I will update the historical data for predictions and create the October Tables in a day or two. ThanksMark Link to comment
HTW & QZ Posted October 10, 2005 Report Share Posted October 10, 2005 You can update us on the list -- we just got our P4 today and our interview is set for November 15. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!157983[/snapback]Jocelyn My husband and stepdaughter are scheduled for Nov 8th and haven't gotten their P4's - we've e-mailed and he's called. Any suggestions? Thanks Link to comment
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