Interview/P3 Lists for the month of August 2005

Timeline · August 7, 2005

Upcoming Interview & P4/Interview Projection Tables from August 2005.

For the Upcoming Interview Table, I will keep the previous month, the current month, any future month(s) interviews on the table. Also, any previous outstanding cases will remain.

........Total.....Down.....ToGo

---.....-----.....----.....----

AUG.......7.........5........2

SEP......31.........0.......31

OCT.......2.........0........2

Some thoughts:

I believe that some (but not all) CR1 cases will receive an earlier P4 date than shown on the Prediction table. I believe this based on member timelines (CR1s) whose show "2nd namecheck complete" before Guangzhou enters the case into the computer or very shortly thereafter. Three recent or upcoming CR1 cases have exhibited this.

P3 for K1 / K3 / CR1(IR1): Why K3 or CR1 is listed on the tables

K1: When Guangzhou sends the P3 packet to the beneficiary (fiancée). No confusion here.

K3: When Guangzhou sends the P3 packet to the beneficiary (spouse).

CR1: When the beneficiary’s (spouse) case is completed at the NVC.

Note: If K3 is listed in the "Type" column and CR1 is listed in the "Comments" column the K3 is converted to a CR1 at the Consulate.

One positive observation. It appears that some of the interviews are completed in the morning versus processing in the morning and interview in the afternoon. This might be a precursor to "cranking" up the output; i.e., the number of interviews per day.

While a number of CFL members "P3 - P4 days" have decreased versus the historical average, only 30 members received their P4 letter in September. 12 members with projected interviews in September did not, assuming these member have not received their P4. No member with a P3 date (entered into the computer) in June has received a P4.

All five member who had projected Interview dates in October, have their Interview dates in September.

The Important News

Happy to hear the positive news on your case Alex !!! If possible keep us in the loop.

Good luck to all this month !!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

..---------------------------------- Upcoming Interview Date Table ------------------------------------"

..CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type.Pass.USC..Comments

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".Alex..................../../....../../.....12/08/04................K1...No........Forwarded from NVC

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".jt1832................05/31/05..06/18/05...07/20/05....50.....18...K3...Yes.......HK

".vincent...............02/25/05..06/03/05...07/28/05...153.....98...K3...Yes..Yes...

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".alaskagypsy...........03/25/05..06/28/05...08/01/05...129.....95...K1...Yes..Yes...

".lucaskeli.............03/25/05..07/07/05...08/03/05...131....104...K3...Yes.......CR1

".mild bill.............03/15/05..06/27/05...08/17/05...155....104...K3...Yes..Yes...

".RICHARDLOVESPING......03/23/05..06/27/05...08/25/05...155.....96...K3...Yes..Yes...

".F & L.................03/10/05..06/30/05...08/26/05...169....112...K1..............

".pkroger...............03/15/05..06/27/05...08/29/05...167....104...K1..............

".LanBa.................02/24/05..07/04/05...08/31/05...188....130...K3...Yes..Yes..CR1

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".Jason+Joanna..........04/19/05..08/02/05...09/06/05...140....105...K1..............

".wulongtea.............05/13/05..08/03/05...09/06/05...116.....82...K1..............

".nygatl15..............04/04/05..07/28/05...09/07/05...156....115...K1..............

".DavidZixuan...........04/08/05..07/28/05...09/07/05...152....111...K1..............

".riki3742..............04/15/05..08/01/05...09/08/05...146....108...K1..............

".buffalopaul...........04/15/05..08/03/05...09/08/05...146....110...K1.............K2

".xulei601..............03/31/05..08/04/05...09/08/05...161....126...K1..............

".impatient.............04/06/05..07/28/05...09/09/05...156....113...K1..............

".Inxsfan...............04/29/05..08/03/05...09/09/05...133.....96...K1.............IV Date estimate

".yongyuan..............05/12/05..08/03/05...09/12/05...123.....83...K1..............

".Luo_Bin_&_Jialu.......04/15/05..08/01/05...09/13/05...151....108...K1..............

".Steve_and_Qingging....05/10/05..08/04/05...09/13/05...126.....86...K1..............

".chinashawn............03/28/05..07/27/05...09/14/05...170....121...DCF............CR1

".ohioboy...............04/15/05..07/27/05...09/14/05...152....103...CR1.............

".SongDaJiang...........04/26/05..07/31/05...09/15/05...142.....96...CR1.............

".aquach................04/16/05..08/02/05...09/15/05...152....108...K1..............

".spieder...............04/15/05..08/01/05...09/19/05...157....108...K1..............

".rosyanne..............04/15/05..08/03/05...09/19/05...157....110...K1..............

".DragonFlower..........05/05/05..08/03/05...09/19/05...137.....90...K3.............CR1

".jtaylo69..............04/14/05..08/01/05...09/20/05...159....109...K1..............

".restlessinsj..........04/18/05..07/29/05...09/21/05...156....102...CR1.............

".lynne.................05/10/05..08/03/05...09/21/05...134.....85...K3.............CR1

".Mark62................05/27/05..08/03/05...09/22/05...118.....68...K1..............

".esun41................04/18/05..08/03/05...09/27/05...162....107...K1..............

".Barey_Jones...........04/11/05..08/07/05...09/27/05...169....118...K1..............

".Annie Ray.............04/01/05..07/28/05...09/28/05...180....118...K3..............

".Brian_Sharon..........05/05/05..08/03/05...09/28/05...146.....90...K1..............

".pkfops................04/08/05..07/30/05...09/29/05...174....113...K1.............P3 mix-up by GZ

".Leefisher3............04/13/05..08/01/05...09/29/05...169....110...K1..............

".dailyview.............03/28/05..08/03/05...09/29/05...185....128...K1..............

".christer..............12/01/04..08/04/05...09/29/05...302....246...K1..............

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".EdG...................06/08/05..08/31/05...10/19/05...133.....84...CR1.............

".rrylee................05/29/05..08/29/05...10/29/05...153.....92...K1..............

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

Nooneufo & Mark

Edited September 1, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history)

Timeline · August 7, 2005

Historical Average Tables

Some Thoughts:

I discard "outlayers" when calculating the averages. This is the reason why the number of interviews used to calculate the average for a particular month might be less than the actual number of interviews for that month. Outlayers are cases that the "P3 to P4" number of days are either too short or too long. A few outlayers can abnormally skew the average either way.

Even though it appears some P4 are arriving faster, the three month average for "P3 to Interview" has remained constant at 152 days. The "P3 to P4" has decreased by five days but the "P4 to Interview" has increased by five days.

I still believe the "P3 to P4" will continue to decrease and the "P4 to interview" will start to decrease once visa operations at the new location is smoothed out.

..................................Historical Average from P3 - P4 - IV (Interview Date)

..................................-----------------------------------------------------

.....Month(s).(2005)......#..of...One Month Average (days)...Three Month Average (days)

..---------------------...Inter...-------------------------...-------------------------

....One.........Three.....views...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...Comments

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" January...................32......135......174.......39............................

" February...................9......119......161.......42............................

" March.......JAN - MAR.....23......127......171.......44.......130......171.......41

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" April.......FEB - APR.....13......112......153.......41.......121......164.......43

" May.........MAR - MAY.....16......108......159.......51.......117......163.......46

" June........APR - JUN.....20......111......146.......35.......110......152.......42

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" July........MAY - JUL......1.......98......153.......55............................

" August......JUN - AUG......7......106......156.......50............................

" September...JUL - SEP.....29......104......151.......47.......104......152.......48

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" October.....AUG - OCT..............................................................

" November....SEP - NOV..............................................................

" December....OCT - DEC..............................................................

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" K1..........APR - SEP.....61..................................107......150.......43

" K3..........APR - SEP.....18..................................108......155.......47

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

Edited August 9, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history)

Timeline · August 7, 2005

P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table

Some thoughts:

A few members have been added to the table along with a few updates.

Twelve members have not received their P4 letter as of this time, which is later than the projected P4. While three are on the "fringe" between September and October, three of the remaining six are outside of the expected variance.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This brings the "2nd name check" issue to the surface. Like many other members, I believe the "2nd name check" is the final requirement before the consulate placess the case in line to be scheduled for an interview. Again, like many other members, I believe "most" applicant "2nd name checks" are completed within a normal time period. Of coure this is no comfort to the applicant whose "2nd name check" has not been completed within a "normal" time period (2 - 6 weeks).

This permits us to predict P4/Interview dates based on the P3 date. For most members the P3 date is the date most readily available. The "2nd name check" complete date is more difficult to obtain, and many members do not record this date.

For example: on my wife's case, below are the five contacts with the DOS/consulate I have made regarding the "2nd name check" in chronological order (the first made four weeks after Guangzhou "entered" my wife's case into the computer, P3):

1. Called DOS - Visa specialist states there is not such thing as a "2nd name check".

2. Called DOS - Visa specialist states "2nd name check" completed 06/17/05.

3. Called DOS - Visa specialist states "2nd name check" is not completed.

4. Called DOS - Visa specialist states "2nd name check" completed 06/23/05.

5. Emailed Guangzhou - Did not answer if my wife's "2nd name check was complete, but did state "The subject mentioned case is about to be scheduled for a visa interview. Due to the huge number of applicant, it may take a few months to schedule."

It is easy to see how, for some applicants, obtaining the "2nd name check" completed date is not a simple task !!!!

What we can deduce from the limited amount of data available, is that no member (that I know of) with a "2nd name check" completed date after June 2005 has been scheduled for an interview.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One member, Littleturtle experienced a "2nd name check" delay, so I guessed at the P4/interview date based on two previous "2nd name check" delay cases. This might be a poor assumption.

I believed the process was slowly but surely improving (getting shorter) and not getting longer (from P3 to P4). Only time and more data points will tell if the process will continue to improve. I have a slightly more agressive prediction formula (using the more recent data), but will not implement this, until I see next month's round of P4s.

Base on this recent decrease in P3 - P4 time, I believe some of the projected November interviews will fall in October.

I have changed the projected P4/Interview date formula due to the following conditions:

1. New information (data points)

2. Using a different sampling period (we currently use a three month running average)

This formula update has only slightly modified (shortened) the P3 - P4 time periods.

This weekend I will change the projected P4 dates. Now the P4 date will only include six days at the end/beginning of the month. Like what has happened recently. For example : for September interviews, the P4 have been reported to be issued between 07/27/05 - 08/03/05 (about six work days).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

..------------------------------ P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table -------------------------------

............................................-----Projected-----

............CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type..Comments

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

"...........Chad&Tong.............10/04/04..../../......./../..................K1.....

"...........June03................01/11/05..../../......./../.........................

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" August....huang.................03/22/05..07/04/05...08/22/05...153....104...K1.....

"...........Littleturtle..........06/27/05..07/15/05...08/26/05................K3....Name Check done

"...........sfarkas103............04/01/05..07/14/05...08/31/05...152....104...K1.....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" September.baogg.................02/14/05..07/22/05...09/07/05...205....158...CR1....

"...........billv.................04/02/05..07/25/05...09/08/05...159....114...K1.....

"...........James.................04/15/05..08/01/05...09/19/05...157....108...K3.....

"...........Jocelyn...............04/20/05..08/02/05...09/19/05...152....104...DCF....

"...........joenamy...............04/09/05..08/04/05...09/21/05...165....117...CR1....

"...........ateam.................04/25/05..08/11/05...09/28/05...156....108...DCF...CR1

"...........rthomas...............04/27/05..08/12/05...09/28/05...154....107...K1.....

"...........jbray.................04/28/05..08/15/05...09/29/05...154....109...DCF...CR1

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" October...tenfootalbino.........05/02/05..08/26/05...10/12/05...163....116...CR1....

"...........blsqueaky.............05/19/05..09/13/05...10/31/05...165....117...IR1...Name check require

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" November..RJZ+JCW...............05/24/05..09/14/05...11/01/05...161....113...K1.....

"...........audelair..............05/27/05..09/16/05...11/02/05...159....112...K1....Austraiia DCF

"...........Linbar................04/12/05..09/19/05...11/03/05...205....160...CR1....

"...........mrjones...............06/06/05..09/19/05...11/03/05...150....105...K1.....

"...........amerchin..............06/10/05..09/22/05...11/09/05...152....104...K1.....

"...........sailorboy.............06/15/05..09/27/05...11/14/05...152....104...K3....CR1

"...........Zingaro...............06/16/05..09/28/05...11/15/05...152....104...K1....Name Check done

"...........Mengxin...............06/04/05..09/29/05...11/16/05...165....117...CR1....

"...........mlspyl................06/04/05..09/29/05...11/16/05...165....117...CR1....

"...........Sarah1031.............06/13/05..10/06/05...11/21/05...161....115...DCF...CR1

"...........Randy_W...............06/24/05..10/11/05...11/28/05...157....109...K1.....

"...........ed_and_ying...........06/29/05..10/11/05...11/28/05...152....104...K1.....

"...........James.................05/09/05..10/14/05...11/30/05...205....158...CR1....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" December..eeyore................05/09/05..10/21/05...12/07/05...212....165...CR1....

"...........Tian9426..............07/05/05..10/26/05...12/13/05...161....113..........

"...........raineedaze............07/15/05..10/31/05...12/19/05...157....108...K3.....

"...........bubbafred10...........05/27/05..11/02/05...12/20/05...207....159...CR1....

"...........Toad..................07/23/05..11/08/05...12/27/05...157....108...DCF...CR1

"...........UtahMale49............06/03/05..11/09/05...12/27/05...207....159...CR1....

"...........markdannie............07/16/05..11/10/05...12/28/05...165....117...CR1....

"...........Jay...................07/18/05..11/10/05...12/28/05...163....115...CR1....

"...........Meidon................07/28/05..11/14/05...12/29/05...154....109...K1.....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" January...goneflying2000........07/30/05..11/23/05...01/11/06...165....116...CR1....

"...........Dennis143.............08/03/05..11/23/05...01/11/06...161....112...K1.....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" February..Carl..................07/21/05..12/27/05...02/13/06...207....159...CR1....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)

Color code for K1/K3/CR1/IR1 P3 or DS-230 at Guangzhou (Top color most accurate)

brown.: K1/K3 = P3 received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)

......: CR1 ..= Case received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)

blue..: K1/K3 = P3 sent to Guanghou or received by Guangzhou.

......: CR1 ..= Case forwarded by the NVC to Guangzhou. (IVR automated message from NVC)

green.: K1/K3 = P3 received by CFL member or date on P3 letter.

......: CR1 ..= Case completed by the NVC. (IVR automated message from NVC)

Edited September 1, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history)

Mengxin · August 7, 2005

Thanks Don. Now if I could only find my name on the list now....hummm??? :unsure:

I asked about this before buuuuuttt, here we go again...

There is a 2 month spread between the time NVC apporoved my paperwork and the time GZ says they received it is 2 months. Last time Nooneufo responded that CR1 P3 was the date GZ says they received the papers, not the date that NVC sends them. I think that nooneufo is correct because I still haven't got my P4 yet and every time I call dos I get the message. Still waiting to wait some more.

Edited August 7, 2005 by Mengxin (see edit history)

Timeline · August 8, 2005

08/07/05 - 11:00PM

Added two addtional members to the Interview Table for September. The total is now 30.

Added the first Historical Average Table utilizing CFL timelines.

Mark

vibes1313 · August 9, 2005

I can't believe this finally got pinned. See post #99352. I remember studying it religiously for several months. And nooneufo's accuracy was amazing. Thanks again nooneufo and Mark. Great job. :lol:

Timeline · August 11, 2005

08/11/05 : 01:40AM

Added the P4/Interview Date Prediction Table

Check the 3rd Post.

Mark

Edited August 11, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history)

Timeline · August 15, 2005

Below is the Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table. All date and "number of days" remain the same except for the following:

P4 date The date on the P4 letter

P4 - P3 "number of days" between P3 to P4

I have adjusted the P4 date to reflect, the approximately five working days each month that the P4 letter is actually generated. Based on recent past history, I have chosen the last three days and first two weekdays of the prior month(s) before the month of interview to project the P4 date. For example: for interviews scheduled in November of 2005 the P4 dates are : September 28, 29, 30 and October 3, 4. I hope this method better reflects the Consulate's actual process.

I have not changed the projected Interview date only the projected P4 date. The adjusted P4 date should better reflect "actual" P4 dates. A word of caution, if a member is close to the end/beginning of the monthly cycle, then the Prediction can be off by approximately one month !!!

Only interviews schedule after September have the adjusted information. And unlike the Consulate, I have projected the Interview date based on earlier P3 date = earlier Interview date. I realize the Consulate fills up the monthly interview dates using a different method, but since I do not have access to this, I will use the "first in", "first out" method.

Compare this Table with the original P4/Interview Prediction Table found in Post 3 above.

Let me know what you think. If the feedback is positive, I will use this format going forwards.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

..------------------------- Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table ---------------------------