david_dawei Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 (edited) This is from the 001 Interview table. P1 to Interview CSC CR1 376CSC CR1 411CSC CR1 836CSC CR1 497CSC K1 189CSC K1 306CSC K1 CSC K1 261CSC K3 505CSC K3 503CSC K3 361NSC CR1 439NSC CR1 355NSC K1 311NSC K1 NSC K1 282NSC K3 487NSC K3 528NSC K3 361NSC K3 476TSC K3 423TSC K3 434VSC CR1 460VSC CR1 408VSC CR1 565VSC CR1 386VSC CR1 566VSC K1 233VSC K1 236VSC K1 251VSC K1 231VSC K1 230 Edit for averages: (I threw out the extremely high CSC CR1) CSC CR1 428CSC K1 252CSC K3 456NSC CR1 397NSC K1 297TSC K3 452VSC CR1 477VSC K1 236 Edited July 20, 2005 by DavidZixuan (see edit history) Link to comment
nooneufo Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 In my opinion having studied all the sites listed for the past year, only the data from CFL has any accurate usefulness. I could go into a long explination for each site, but basically, it is only on CFL where members post specific dates, or on specific dates, dates written on certain documents, and other related events that has allowed for the most accurate prediction data. There is also a general greater understanding from its members of what to post for the time line information, in turn driven by the desire to know more of when the process will be finished, which by collecting over time and by studying the posts of those members during the periods in question, allows for a more accurate assessment of the time. A simple post your time data into a chart for any other site has so far not provide the same useful data. Only comparative data. The data is gathered from all CFL members who posted a time line with the neccesary data from April 2004 to now. Why April 2004? Because before that, Biometrics was waiting to be implemented, and before that, the Interview wait time was much shorter.Before whatever happened before that, there was some other wait time. Before that, there was what oldest members here refer to as the "Black Hole" While things have changed, and usually things changing means a longer wait, in general since that time the wait times from P3 to Interview have been fluctuating from 180-124 days from P3 to Interview. Variable up/down on a per month basis. Wait times per service center, per visa type, is a much larger set of variables, which it is hard to include coffee factor. This is why we can only see a general spread, which is why we can easily say, expect a year start to finish, if you are going to end up at Guangzhou. (Maybe this will change again, but don't rely on that either). Six month BG and six month AG. A CFL member has an appropriate tagline something about what a service center gives, Guz will take away. An accurate observation. Here is the same data in Interview order, oldest to latest. I had left the previous data sort by the amount of time, because as you can see by this sort list, there is no speed up or slow down. At the bottom is my data from 001 for comparison, which is why I only use it for a check. Total number of days from NOA1 to Interview, oldest to most recent for CFL. CSC369528377420557371277392311314461286346398 MSC431 NSC404359409302344351325332295 TSC336300330 VSC315256364233245367403364251255302361268 DCF223177203 Unknown344219389471357350415368440383211274310354542462229422257420466235322401304 Data collected from 001 site from July 2004 to now total number of days from NOA1 to Interview, oldest to most recent K1 CSC 680K1 CSC 556K1 CSC 375K1 CSC 370K1 CSC 665K1 CSC 440K1 CSC 367K1 CSC 321K1 CSC 386K3 CSC 372CR1 CSC 485CR1 CSC 397K1 CSC 363K3 CSC 282K1 CSC 280K1 CSC 243K1 CSC 712K3 CSC 371K1 CSC 302K1 CSC 285K1 CSC 418CR1 CSC 420K3 CSC 490K3 CSC 495K1 CSC 305K1 CSC 354CR1 CSC 383CR1 CSC 332K1 CSC 398K1 CSC 385CR1 CSC 453CR国内 CSC 286CR1 CSC 377K1 CSC 377CR国内 CSC 403CR1 CSC 455K3 CSC 449K3 CSC 196K1 CSC 274K3 CSC 422K1 CSC 406K3 CSC 509K1 CSC 465K3 CSC 330CR国内 CSC 456K3 CSC 331K1 CSC 551K1 CSC 116K3 CSC 278K3 CSC 435K1 CSC 505K1 CSC 378K1 CSC 418K3 CSC 179K1 CSC 289K1 CSC 281K1 CSC 435K3 CSC 137K1 CSC 515K1 CSC 417K1 CSC 385K1 CSC 524K1 NSC 550CR1 NSC 468K3 NSC 380K1 NSC 354CR1 NSC 413K1 NSC 372CR1 NSC 403K1 NSC 442K1 NSC 328K1 NSC 321K1 NSC 287CR1 NSC 316CR1 NSC 402K1 NSC 283K1 NSC 241K1 NSC 309K1 NSC 317K1 NSC 334K1 NSC 376CR1 NSC 203CR1 NSC 387K1 NSC 326CR1/DCF? NSC 366K1 NSC 318CR国内 NSC 215K3 NSC 371K1 NSC 333K3 NSC 319K1 NSC 341K1 NSC 286CR1 NSC 456K1 NSC 304K1 NSC 431K1 NSC 331K1 NSC 325K1 NSC 363K1 NSC 298K1 NSC 470K1 NSC 307CR1 NSC 590CR1 NSC 343K1 NSC 504K1 TSC 432CR1 TSC 429K1 TSC 522K1 TSC 609CR1 TSC 309K1 TSC 222K1 TSC 281K3 TSC 407K1 TSC 486K1 TSC 288K1 TSC 452K1 TSC 253CR1 TSC 332K3 TSC 404CR1 TSC 302K1 TSC 472K1 TSC 243K1 VSC 570K3 VSC 301K1 VSC 246K3 VSC 233CR1 VSC 429CR1 VSC 351K1 VSC 232K1 VSC 214K1 VSC 356K1 VSC 237K1 VSC 241K1 VSC 229CR1 VSC 208CR1 VSC 212CR1 VSC 304K1 VSC 435K1 VSC 406CR1 VSC 424K1 VSC 401CR1 VSC 328CR1 VSC 445K1 VSC 246K1 VSC 210CR1 VSC 231K1 VSC 336K1 VSC 303K1 VSC 229CR1 VSC 322K3 VSC 390K1 VSC 213K1 VSC 185CR1 VSC 514K1 VSC 239K1 VSC 215K3 VSC 254K1 VSC 226K1 VSC 248K1 VSC 550K3 VSC 219K1 VSC 563 Link to comment
nooneufo Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 (edited) Why don't I use the averages for this data? Because the evidence shows that the high numbers appear to mean that those are people who have a delay of some sort in the process where there are many places where a delay can happen. Since we don't have a lot of numbers, it is harder to extrapolate out a bell shaped curve to get the mean average. Which is why, I think one can say, expect a year, be happy if it is less. Edited July 20, 2005 by nooneufo (see edit history) Link to comment
HanLi Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 I just looked at a number of timeslines and I just don't get that impression. Many are 9-11 months; Lee for example will be over a year. I would only venture to say a year is average.. but we have more precise numbers by visa center and visa type, in my opinion.138786[/snapback]...my statement was not intended to be scientific, but a general observation. Again, the timelines I've viewed show the trend that I've already mentioned......now, that's my opinion..... 138791[/snapback]Are these recent ? I was talking with another member about a month ago.. we were discussing the idea of doing something offsite to allow people to enter their timelines and then people could sort by various ways. It is clear that timelines are extremely useful and could be used in a searchable and sorting means.138794[/snapback]David, having a comprehensive site that enabled a user to register and enter personal information relating to their timeline would be incredibly useful. I've seen a few attempts at this, but most lack the ability to perform a true controlled time study. The variables are pretty straight-forward it seems and it should not be too hard to develop an input system that could be queried and charted so that it provides historical information. I've seen the Chart on VJ but it fails to provide an easy method for extracting and charting. The timelines you see from many that use the signature block contain a lot additional information that is of personal importance, but of little significance to a statistical study. I would be happy to lend a hand in such an effort should there be an interest....138797[/snapback]can you do a spread sheet based on the variables so they can be queried easily???? Will it more easily allow for comparisons that way? Link to comment
esun41 Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 (edited) In my observation and following timelines of friends who have completed the process... Nine months seems to be the norm for K1. The person who has helped my fiancee and many other Nanning ladies, told me when I was there in Nanning the first visit last August that 9 months average for completion once the process starts. Sure enough, timelines I notice for K1 averages 9 months. The overall concensus seems to be that Guangzhou is very impartial and fair even though we all want our cases to be unique. I just complain about the wait because their is so many illegal's coming into the USA and we all are following the rules and have to wait and endure frustrations of due process. DavidZixuan once posted that good things come to those who wait... I agree and have had more than my share of blessings since this all began 1 year ago! Edited July 21, 2005 by esun41 (see edit history) Link to comment
finenn Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 It wouldn't be that difficult to build a form for people to input this data to track timelines. One problem is of course the data is entered wrong either by mistake or intentionally. The milestones would first have to be agreed on for each type of visa, like "Received notice of Approval from BCIS in Nebraska", or "P4 received". All would have date values associated with it. Then you'd have to get the members to fill it all in, as the timeline signatures are of little value and would be next to impossible to parse the meanings. But after that, the reports or raw data dumps into say an excel sheet would be easy. Anybody want to define the milestones and rally people to enter the info, I could build it with moderator approval. Jeff Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 K1 Required entry:1) Date petition (I-129F) sent to visa center2) Visa center sent to (VSC, TSC, CSC, NSC)3) NOA1 date4) NOA2 date5) P3 date entered in GUZ computer (most reliable in case delay in the return) ; secondary = date P3 sent back ; last option = date received.6) P4 date7) Interview date Link to comment
Mengxin Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 (edited) Nooneufo and David, I see that you have both entered the Matrix. Somehow you have become 1 with your data. Don't forget to take the red pill to get out, or was it the blue, whatever. Let's call it all good, and say it takes a year or so. http://www.gifmania.be/Matrix/code.gifhttp://www.gifmania.be/Matrix/code.gifhttp://www.gifmania.be/Matrix/code.gifhttp://www.gifmania.be/Matrix/code.gif Edited July 21, 2005 by Mengxin (see edit history) Link to comment
nooneufo Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 One problem is of course the data is entered wrong either by mistake or intentionally. Jeff138960[/snapback]I am all for a form to enter the data in by the users. Unfortunately, look at every other site that does this, and look more specifically at the data compared to manually compiling the data at CFL, you will have even less accuracy for (in my opinion) the most critical thing people want to know, which is when will their interview be scheduled. For example, there are at least four different interpretations for what is the proper P3 date that is entered on 001, and this is reflected in the averages. Will a form include this, and will people enter the right information into the right block. Based on what I see, the answer will be no. I wish the answer was yes, because it would be a lot easier. Link to comment
nooneufo Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 K1 Required entry: 5) P3 date entered in GUZ computer (most reliable in case delay in the return) ; secondary = date P3 sent back ; last option = date received. 138962[/snapback]This is incorrect. The data is clear that the most important dates are the ones in the upper right hand corner of the P3 letter and on the P4 letter. Link to comment
Guest ShaQuaNew Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 (edited) K1 Required entry: 5) P3 date entered in GUZ computer (most reliable in case delay in the return) ; secondary = date P3 sent back ; last option = date received. 138962[/snapback]This is incorrect. The data is clear that the most important dates are the ones in the upper right hand corner of the P3 letter and on the P4 letter.138980[/snapback]Every form received is important, especially when a Notice of Action. What starts getting murky is when dates are communicated to others using inconsistent methods. The I-797C---Notice of Action has two fields for dates. These are both on the left side directly over one another as: Received Date: ___________ Notice Date: __________ Additionally, if you go to USCIS.gov other dates appear as to when the current package was last updated. With this in mind, it's EXTREMELY important to stipulate the name of the date field (e.g., Notice Date, Received Date, etc.) on the specific form. To keep consistency you must throw out any date that does not appear on a form. Verbal dates, check cashed dates, post marked dates, etc., are not acceptable. The benchmark date should be the Notice Date appearing on the Notice of Action form. Edited July 21, 2005 by fitnlivly (see edit history) Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 K1 Required entry: 5) P3 date entered in GUZ computer (most reliable in case delay in the return) ; secondary = date P3 sent back ; last option = date received. 138962[/snapback]This is incorrect. The data is clear that the most important dates are the ones in the upper right hand corner of the P3 letter and on the P4 letter.138980[/snapback]I understand that the form date is best for predicting the projections.. the only reason to have the entered date (maybe in addition), is that it shows up those who took over the average to return the P3 and therefore might have to be adjusted out (?). I think it would be helpful to have a second P3 date, either the "entered" date for the reason just given or name check complete, so we can try to see if at what point a delayed namecheck pushes the interview date out. Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 FYI: Here is the data that I have for the last K1s getting interviews.. if the submission date was not given, this was backed into. CFL member………..........Ctr……Submission..…Interview……Days…Monthspkroger...................................7/12/2004......8/9/2005......387......12.9F & L......................................8/24/2004......8/5/2005......341......11.3alaskagypsy............................9/27/2004......8/1/2005......304......10.1DocMarin817................nsc......8/6/2004…....6/28/2005.....322......10.7yuehan123...................csc......9/1/2004…....6/23/2005......292......9.7krjchen...................................3/22/2004.....6/21/2005.....449......14.9Feathers268..................csc....3/18/2004......6/18/2005......450......15Johns90.......................vsc.....10/15/2004.....6/17/2005......242......8Dan R..........................csc......7/20/2004.....6/15/2005......325......10.8hlin...............................csc.....7/19/2004......6/6/2005.......317......10.5nousername..................nsc......4/4/2004.......6/2/2005........418......13.9jimglot.....................................8/19/2004......5/31/2005......282......9.4petercat........................csc.....4/27/2004......5/31/2005......394......13.1Keith-N-Min...................vsc.....10/6/2004......5/25/2005......229......7.6squid............................tsc......8/25/2004......5/25/2005…...270......9Vibes1313....................tsc......6/28/2004......5/24/2005.......326......10.8markd...........................nsc......6/9/2004......5/15/2005…....336......11.2Cliff..............................vsc......7/31/2004......4/28/2005......268......8.9springmud.....................nsc......5/20/2004.....4/21/2005......331......11nooneufo......................csc......7/7/2004.......4/18/2005......281......9.3Bandj............................vsc......6/10/2004.....4/12/2005......302......10G-man..........................tsc.......8/1/2004.......4/11/2005......250......8.3c4racer........................nsc......5/4/2004.......4/8/2005........334......11.1yav20b....................................5/17/2004......3/31/2005…...314......10.4animatormark................vsc......7/5/2004…....3/30/2005......265......8.8John & Hai Yan.............vsc......6/15/2004......3/24/2005......279......9.3Lele..............................vsc......6/10/2004.......3/3/2005......263......8.7Razbre.........................vsc......4/28/2004......1/11/2005......253......8.4 Link to comment
Guest ShaQuaNew Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 FYI: Here is the data that I have for the last K1s getting interviews.. if the submission date was not given, this was backed into. CFL member………..........Ctr……Submission..…Interview……Days…Monthspkroger...................................7/12/2004......8/9/2005......387......12.9F & L......................................8/24/2004......8/5/2005......341......11.3alaskagypsy............................9/27/2004......8/1/2005......304......10.1DocMarin817................nsc......8/6/2004…....6/28/2005.....322......10.7yuehan123...................csc......9/1/2004…....6/23/2005......292......9.7krjchen...................................3/22/2004.....6/21/2005.....449......14.9Feathers268..................csc....3/18/2004......6/18/2005......450......15Johns90.......................vsc.....10/15/2004.....6/17/2005......242......8Dan R..........................csc......7/20/2004.....6/15/2005......325......10.8hlin...............................csc.....7/19/2004......6/6/2005.......317......10.5nousername..................nsc......4/4/2004.......6/2/2005........418......13.9jimglot.....................................8/19/2004......5/31/2005......282......9.4petercat........................csc.....4/27/2004......5/31/2005......394......13.1Keith-N-Min...................vsc.....10/6/2004......5/25/2005......229......7.6squid............................tsc......8/25/2004......5/25/2005…...270......9Vibes1313....................tsc......6/28/2004......5/24/2005.......326......10.8markd...........................nsc......6/9/2004......5/15/2005…....336......11.2Cliff..............................vsc......7/31/2004......4/28/2005......268......8.9springmud.....................nsc......5/20/2004.....4/21/2005......331......11nooneufo......................csc......7/7/2004.......4/18/2005......281......9.3Bandj............................vsc......6/10/2004.....4/12/2005......302......10G-man..........................tsc.......8/1/2004.......4/11/2005......250......8.3c4racer........................nsc......5/4/2004.......4/8/2005........334......11.1yav20b....................................5/17/2004......3/31/2005…...314......10.4animatormark................vsc......7/5/2004…....3/30/2005......265......8.8John & Hai Yan.............vsc......6/15/2004......3/24/2005......279......9.3Lele..............................vsc......6/10/2004.......3/3/2005......263......8.7Razbre.........................vsc......4/28/2004......1/11/2005......253......8.4139044[/snapback]Where did you get these? Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 FYI: Here is the data that I have for the last K1s getting interviews.. if the submission date was not given, this was backed into. CFL member………..........Ctr……Submission..…Interview……Days…Monthspkroger...................................7/12/2004......8/9/2005......387......12.9F & L......................................8/24/2004......8/5/2005......341......11.3alaskagypsy............................9/27/2004......8/1/2005......304......10.1DocMarin817................nsc......8/6/2004…....6/28/2005.....322......10.7yuehan123...................csc......9/1/2004…....6/23/2005......292......9.7krjchen...................................3/22/2004.....6/21/2005.....449......14.9Feathers268..................csc....3/18/2004......6/18/2005......450......15Johns90.......................vsc.....10/15/2004.....6/17/2005......242......8Dan R..........................csc......7/20/2004.....6/15/2005......325......10.8hlin...............................csc.....7/19/2004......6/6/2005.......317......10.5nousername..................nsc......4/4/2004.......6/2/2005........418......13.9jimglot.....................................8/19/2004......5/31/2005......282......9.4petercat........................csc.....4/27/2004......5/31/2005......394......13.1Keith-N-Min...................vsc.....10/6/2004......5/25/2005......229......7.6squid............................tsc......8/25/2004......5/25/2005…...270......9Vibes1313....................tsc......6/28/2004......5/24/2005.......326......10.8markd...........................nsc......6/9/2004......5/15/2005…....336......11.2Cliff..............................vsc......7/31/2004......4/28/2005......268......8.9springmud.....................nsc......5/20/2004.....4/21/2005......331......11nooneufo......................csc......7/7/2004.......4/18/2005......281......9.3Bandj............................vsc......6/10/2004.....4/12/2005......302......10G-man..........................tsc.......8/1/2004.......4/11/2005......250......8.3c4racer........................nsc......5/4/2004.......4/8/2005........334......11.1yav20b....................................5/17/2004......3/31/2005…...314......10.4animatormark................vsc......7/5/2004…....3/30/2005......265......8.8John & Hai Yan.............vsc......6/15/2004......3/24/2005......279......9.3Lele..............................vsc......6/10/2004.......3/3/2005......263......8.7Razbre.........................vsc......4/28/2004......1/11/2005......253......8.4139044[/snapback]Where did you get these?139045[/snapback]Ultimately peoples timelines. It's the only place to extract the data from... At one time, I did a thread asking for info and collected some. Link to comment
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