Interview/P3 List for 4th Week of June 2005

[Mengxin]

What's the data say on "date of namecheck complete" to P4 ? (we can call DOS to get the date)

 

If we don't collect this, I think it would be the best final adjustment indicator to people... it is the last step prior to the P4.

David??? come on man.... It's easier to blame GZ, than to admit guilt. it would be cool to see if there was a forum for VO's that wrote about how impatcient we were.

They would say something like this.... "Geez, mengxin sure is slow. always talkn' this and that. making jokes about our donuts. shit, just spilled coffee on his paperwork. it's should take a couple days to dry off outside, to bad he'll need to start at the bottom of the pile again."

[pkfops]

[david_dawei]

Yesterday, I was talking with someone in private and they pointed out that the namecheck to P4 appears to have a good track record of time indicator. There is no variability inbetween the dates.

 

As opposed to P3 to P4 there are two variabilities:

1) The turnaround time of the P3 (some take longer than others)

2) Name check (fast or black hole)

 

HE was checking his theory against my dates.. but I don't even bother to know my name check date... he even asked me again today, and I did not call DOS yet...

 

So I'll get to the call when I can.. there's no rush for me individually, but someone wants to test a date theory.. so I'm willing to help...

 

So I offered to post something to help validate the idea and see what data is already kept by this thread owner... sinc we have P3-P4, P3-interview, P4-interview, etc...

 

At this point, I don't want anyones data or help.. I'm done with this issue.. he can start his own thread.

[ohioboy]

can you please add me to thanks i filed a cr-1

[nooneufo]

All data that is provided is collected, unfortunately, not all people provide data. Too bad, because we can know a lot more if people would provide all their dates. All possible permutations are considered with the data collected. As repeated before, the data appears to show that your P4 comes sequentially with others in your P3 letter date group, barring delays like a name check.

 

Here is some historical data of name check times.

My own opinion based on this data has long been that the name check is not done by Guz (and so therefore one can not hold them responsible for this part of the wait), and Guz just simply has a time set for the name check to be done, of around 3 or 4 months (We can hold them responsible for this).

I see no relationship concerning name checks except for one; if it is not completed within a certain amount of time, you are going to be delayed. Other wise, you are waiting in the same line as everyone else. The data appears to show that your P4 comes sequentially with others in your P3 letter date group. Based on this data, if you were calling to DOS to find out about your name check, and it was not completed within 60 to 100 days from when your P3 returned and entered into the computer, a little worry might be in order.

 

P3 return date to name check completed

103

43

26

63

37

49

11

88

43

47

34

24

48

People waiting for P4 with a name check completed

40

45

26

32

26

99

68

 

 

 

Number of days from name check to P4

40

86

106

63

91

63

101

23

70

61

83

57

73

[Timeline]

Addition:

 

At the top post on this Topic, I have added a Historical Average Table for 001 data. This data has been input by Nooneufo. I must bring it up to date. I will add the remaining June data and the July data when I have a chance.

 

Qualifiers: I removed all data with P3 - P4 number of days => 200 days. There were a handlful (11 of these for the total data sample of 140). I included all the low P3 - P4 numbers of days (a handful) which in my thoughts cannot be correct.

 

I believe the data is more suspect than the adjusted P3 data at CFL. Not that the 001 P3 dates are incorrect, only that we cannot determine what P3 date each member is reporting, on CFL we can usually determine this. This means that the "actual" P3 - P4 days might be slightly less than shown on the table due to reporting other P3 dates than the "entered into the computer at GZ" P3 date. This has the effect of adding additional days to the P3 - P4 total.

 

When I have the opportunity I will combine both tables into one table for ease of viewing.

 

Hope this helps contrast the difference (or the similarity) in the data from the two sites.

 

 

Mark

[bubbafred10]

can you please add me to  thanks  i filed a cr-1

 

cr-1 approved at nvc 3-30-2005 papers send to Guangzou 4-15-2005, name check and security passed 6-6-2005, waiting for p-4???

 

Ohioboy - How does one find out when the "name check and security passed"? Is that information from DOS or GUZ? By email or phone call?

 

Thanks,

Fred

[mlspyl]

Fred:

 

You are correct, both the DOS and Guangzhou (GZ) has the information. There is only one source of information and they both have the dates in the "computer". As been stated before to call the DOS: 1-202-663-1225, Press 1, then 0, then 0

 

The Consulate at GZ does most of the updates into the "computer" for the cases (whether K1, K3, or CR1). This includes all e-mails to GZ and phone calls to the DOS (DOS inputs this into the computer) we might make to get information on our spouses/fiancees case, in addition to the stuff the DOS/GZ/govt agencies do like; "2nd name check requested" and "2nd name check completed", P3 returned (K1/K3), etc.

 

I would e-mail GZ and call the DOS both. However, in my opinion you will get "more" information from the DOS, or should I say get information more easily, because they both have the "same" information on the case.

 

 

Mark

[CR1togo]

Ohioboy -  How does one find out when the "name check and security passed"?  Is that information from DOS or GUZ?  By email or phone call?

 

Thanks,

Fred

My email to GUZ about this was deferred to the pay for use line. Still don't know the date. acw

[LeeFisher3]

Ohioboy -  How does one find out when the "name check and security passed"?  Is that information from DOS or GUZ?  By email or phone call?

 

Thanks,

Fred

My email to GUZ about this was deferred to the pay for use line. Still don't know the date. acw

Give the DOS a call, I seem to get a better quaility response.

[david_dawei]

when I look at the "by month" stats, April and May seem low.. and if I go back to past lists, I get a different count of April = 24; May = 22 ??

 

http://candleforlove.com/forums/index....a0cdd903666b37c

 

http://candleforlove.com/forums/index....a0cdd903666b37c

[mlspyl]

Deleted

[Timeline]

David:

 

 

Thanks for the information. I am not sure how I missed this. I will check it out this evening and update as necessary.

 

Does anyone have a list of holidays (days off) for the consulate for the remainder of 2005 and beginning of 2006 ???

 

 

 

Note on P4/Interview Predictions:

 

I am conservative by nature on "future" things. On our journey through the NVC, we "lost" 32 days by being conservative. I did not have my wife pre-sign the forms or have them completed ahead of time.

Likewise with my first attempt at updating the prediction tables this shows my conservative view on predicting. I would rather be suprised by an earlier P4 date then predicted and not upset if my "expected" P4 date has passed

 

I am conservative in reporting, but I absolutely agree with nooneufo's belief that the process is speeding up and will continue to go faster at Guangzhou (GZ). We already see some of this, with the shorter P3 to interview timelines during the succeeding months in the first half of 2005. This is a fact based on the historical data that we possess.

 

While nooneufo expressed this "reduction of the timelines" in the recent week's prediction tables, I prefer to wait and see it happen first (again, I am conservative) so I used a three month running average. I believe when the new Visa building (etc.) opens in August (or whenever) then the process will go quicker if they have more manpower.

 

This means when it finally does happen, my predictions will be off (too long). I will try to adjust for this as soon as possible; i.e. when we see four weeks of historical data or approx. 50 members whose timelines appreciably decrease. Then we probably will change from a 3 month average to a one month average for predictions until the pattern settles down.

 

If the Guangzhou consulate portion of the visa wait time approaches the wait time of US Consulate in other countries then all we have to do is visit VisaJourney.com like all the other K1/K3/CR-1 couples !!!!

 

 

 

Mark

[david_dawei]

http://www.usembassy-china.org.cn/guangzho...cg/holiday.html

 

2005 Holiday Schedule

The Consulate is open from 8:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. Monday through Friday. We are CLOSED on the following American and Chinese holidays:

 

December 31 Friday New Year's Day US & China

January 17 Monday Martin Luther King, Jr's Birthday US

February 9, 10, 11 Wednesday, Thursday, Friday Lunar New Year China

February 21 Monday Presidents' Day US

May 2, 3, 4 Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday International Labor Day China

May 30 Monday Memorial Day US

July 4 Monday Independence Day US

September 5 Monday Labor Day US

October 3, 4, 5 Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday Chinese National Day China

October 10 Monday Columbus Day US

November 11 Friday Veterans' Day US

November 24 Thursday Thanksgiving Day US

December 26 Monday Christmas Day US

[david_dawei]

I will try to adjust for this as soon as possible; i.e. when we see four weeks of historical data or approx. 50 members whose timelines appreciably decrease.  Then we probably will change from a 3 month average to a one month average for predictions until the pattern settles down.

I notice we still have only one july interview (001 only has about 9).. usually by the previous months 2nd week we have some and the third week has most of the next week filled. This is the fourth week of june stats but only one in july. But we do appear to be very thin on P3s in Feb...

 

this just brings up a cyclic nature to applications submitted, which can possibly be traced back to visits of petitioners. I had heard someone say that many visits occur in the summer, so that their applications tend to build up from that point...