Timeline Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 Interview/P3 list for 4th week of May 2005. Good luck to everyone for the next week. Need the dates in the upper left hand corner ofyour P3 and P4 letters please from 2004-2005. Let us know of changes and additions. Updates added to this post (22May05 3am) :P4 list updated to reflect new trend. Yes, it is very optimistic. jinqutierrez got interview Updates to the post (24May05 1:00am) John90 - P4 and Interview datesJgrier5 - Interview successgiddyup888 - P3 datedarianstarfire - P3 and Interview date Updates to the post (24May05 3:00am)darianstarfire=lizziedannypie=DCFvibes1313 - Interview success Updates to the post (28May05 3:00am)Data update lost to CFL crashdmaddox74 - Interview successfhtb - Interview successsquid - Interview successKeith-N-Min - Interview successLassletter - Interview successyuehan123 - received P4Littleturtle - Name check delay (actual P3 to P4 received is as reported, not corrected for Monday/Tuesday Theory)Unresolved (We are not going to forget) CFL_Name-----------------P3--------P4------Interview--#days--P3-P4--Type-USC--Slip---Comments ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mari------------------07/15/04-------------------------------------------------------Name-check done on 04/13/05 Alex---------------------------------------12/08/05--------------------------Blue----Case Review Deekdoken----------------------------------------------------------------------------Admin Processing ??? Zingaro---------------11/05/04-------------------------------------------------------Name Check Delay Mike_Xiao-------------10/28/04--02/08/05---03/11/05----134----103---CR1--Yes-Blue----No explanation on slip animejpop-------------10/10/04--03/08/05---04/13/05----185----149---K1---------------No information yet jual_3----------------??/??/??--02/28/05---04/18/05----???-----98---K1---------------No information yet Littleturtle----------01/28/04-------------------------------------------------------Name Check Delay ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Listed by upcoming Interview. CFL_Name-----------------P3--------P4------Interview--#days--P3-P4--Type-USC--Slip---Comments ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- jgrier5---------------12/01/04--04/01/05---05/23/05----173----121---CR1------Passed--Updated steve&wei-------------12/27/04--03/31/05---05/23/05----147-----94---IR1 dmaddox74-------------12/07/04--03/29/05---05/24/05----168----112---K3---Yes-Passed--Updated vibes1313-------------12/20/04--03/29/05---05/24/05----155-----99---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated fhtb------------------12/19/04--03/28/05---05/25/05----158----100---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated Squid-----------------12/07/04--04/20/05---05/25/05----169----134---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated Keith-N-Min-----------01/05/05--04/20/05---05/25/05----140----105---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated Lassletter------------01/06/05--04/19/05---05/25/05----139----103---K3---Yes-Passed--Updated hank------------------12/20/04--03/25/05---05/26/05----157-----95---K1 giddyup888------------02/14/05--05/21/05---05/26/05----101-----96---CR1--------------You said next Thursday ? jimglot---------------12/08/04--03/31/05---05/31/05----174----113---K1 someonesbrother-------12/13/04--03/25/05---05/31/05----169----102---K1 peterscat/Icebreaker--12/27/04--03/28/05---05/31/05----155-----91---K1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- krjchen---------------01/15/05--05/17/05---06/01/05----137----122---K1 nousername------------01/12/05--05/16/05---06/02/05----141----124---K1 MarsofBorg------------??/??/05--05/20/05---06/02/05----???----???---?? wawafish--------------01/31/05--05/19/05---06/03/05----123----108---K1 hlin------------------01/13/05--05/01/05---06/06/05----144----108---K1 Liuxia's Husband------01/06/05--04/27/05---06/08/05----153----111---K3 Ron_Frank-------------01/06/05--04/27/05---06/08/05----153----111---K3 melvin----------------01/20/05--05/01/05---06/13/05----144----101---K1 inxy------------------01/15/05--05/21/05---06/13/05----149----126---K3 DanR------------------12/29/04--04/28/05---06/15/05----168----120---K1 LouRose---------------01/11/05--04/29/05---06/16/05----156----108---DCF Feathers268-----------01/07/05--05/13/05---06/16/05----160----126---K1 John90----------------01/11/05--05/20/05---06/17/05----157----125---K1---------------Updated lizziedannypie--------01/05/05--04/30/05---06/21/05----180----126---DCF--------------K3- lizziedannypie=darianstarfire darianstarfire--------12/30/04--04/30/05---06/21/05----180----126---DCF--------------CR1 darianstarfire=lizzydannypie jinqutierrez----------01/28/05--05/21/05---06/22/05----145----113---K1 yuehan123-------------03/11/05--05/24/05---06/23/05----124----98----K1 hayuesan--------------01/05/05--04/27/05---06/30/05----204----140---K1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This list reflects the Monday/Tuesday theory and earliest guess. P4 is the guess of the date on the Interview letter. P3 to P4 is how many days between. Calculations are so that you can compare to real numbers above. This week reflects the new consulate and recent speed increase. ------------------------------------------Projected--Projected---------- CFL_Name-----------------P3--------P4-----Interview--#days--P3-P4--Type-------------Comments---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------November-- Zingaro---------------10/28/04--05/31/05---07/12/05---257----215---K1---------------Name Check Delay---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------December-- Chad&Tong-------------10/04/04--05/31/05--------------281----239---K1 ---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------January--- Bahan-----------------12/01/04--05/31/05---------------------174---CR1 ---------- Bahan-----------------12/29/04--05/31/05---------------------146---CR1 ---------- Bahan-----------------01/05/05--05/31/05---------------------139---CR1 ---------- June03----------------01/11/05--05/31/05---------------------133---K1 ---------- markandyuping---------01/12/05--05/31/05---------------------132---K1 ---------- jinqutierrez----------01/28/05--05/31/05---------------------116---K1---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------February-- Littleturtle----------01/28/05--05/31/05---------------------98----K3---------------Name Check Delay---------- jfong988--------------02/25/05--05/31/05---------------------88----K1---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------March----- baogg-----------------03/01/05--05/31/05---------------------84----K3---------- baogg-----------------02/03/05--05/31/05---------------------110---CR1---------- benefanfan------------03/03/05--05/24/05---------------------82----K3---------- benefanfan------------03/18/05--05/24/05---------------------67----CR1---------- DocMartin817----------03/03/05--05/24/05---------------------82----K1---------- mild_bill-------------03/08/05--05/24/05---------------------77----K1---------- F_&_L-----------------03/10/05--05/24/05---------------------75----K1---------- vincent---------------03/11/05--05/24/05---------------------74----K3---------- pkfops----------------03/21/05--05/24/05---------------------64----K1---------- dailyview-------------03/18/05--05/24/05---------------------67----K1---------- huang-----------------03/22/05--05/24/05---------------------63----K1---------- RICHARDLOVESPING------03/23/05--05/24/05---------------------62----K3---------- alaskagypsy-----------03/25/05--05/24/05---------------------60----K1---------- rikj3742--------------03/26/05--05/24/05---------------------59----K1---------- xulei601--------------03/31/05--05/24/05---------------------54----K1---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------April----- Annie Ray-------------04/01/05--05/24/05---------------------53----K3---------- billv-----------------04/02/05--05/24/05---------------------52----K1---------- DavidZixuan-----------04/08/05--05/24/05---------------------46----K1---------- nagat715--------------04/04/05--05/24/05---------------------50----K1---------- impatient-------------04/08/05--05/24/05---------------------48----K1---------- Luo_Bin_&_Jian--------04/08/05--05/24/05---------------------46----K1---------- tenfootalbino---------03/18/05--05/24/05---------------------67----CR1 ---------- tenfootalbino---------03/30/05--05/24/05---------------------55----CR1 ---------- tenfootalbino---------04/14/05--05/24/05---------------------40----CR1 ---------- buffalopaul-----------04/15/05--08/02/05---------------------39----K1---------- rosyanne--------------04/15/05--08/09/05---------------------39----K1---------- aquach----------------04/16/05--08/08/05---------------------38----K1---------- joenamy---------------12/17/04--05/17/05---------------------158---CR1---------- joenamy---------------02/06/05--06/21/05---------------------107---CR1---------- joenamy---------------04/09/05--08/09/05---------------------45----CR1---------- Mari------------------04/13/05--05/24/05---------------------41----K1---------------Name Check Delay---------- jtaylo69--------------04/14/05--05/24/05---------------------40----K1---------- Brian_Sharon----------04/17/05--05/24/05---------------------37----K1---------- Jason+Joanna----------04/19/05--05/24/05---------------------35----K1---------- Jocelyn---------------04/20/05--05/24/05---------------------34----K1---------- esun41----------------04/28/05--05/24/05---------------------26----K1---------- James-----------------04/19/05--05/24/05---------------------12----K3---------- James-----------------04/25/04--05/24/05---------------------29----CR1 ---------- Chinese_Wife!!!-------02/14/05--05/24/05---------------------99----CR1---------- Chinese_Wife!!!-------03/11/05--05/24/05---------------------74----CR1---------- mlspyl----------------03/10/05--05/24/05---------------------75----CR1---------- mlspyl----------------03/24/05--05/24/05---------------------61----CR1---------- mlspyl----------------05/12/05--05/24/05---------------------12----CR1---------- Mengxin---------------03/08/05--05/24/05---------------------77----CR1---------- Mengxin---------------04/12/05--05/24/05---------------------42----CR1---------- blsqueaky-------------04/17/05--05/24/05---------------------37----IR1---------- eeyore----------------04/18/05--05/24/05---------------------36----CR1---------- lynne-----------------04/21/05--05/24/05---------------------33----CR1---------- lynne-----------------05/10/05--05/24/05---------------------14----K3---------- SongDaJiang-----------04/15/05--05/24/05---------------------39----CR1---------- SongDaJiang-----------04/26/05--05/24/05---------------------28----CR1---------- wulongtea-------------04/26/05--05/24/05---------------------11----K1---------- jbray-----------------04/28/05--05/24/05---------------------26----CR1---------- Inxsfan---------------04/29/05--05/24/05---------------------25----..---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------May------- amerchin--------------05/13/05--05/24/05---------------------11----K1---------- Linbar----------------04/12/05--05/24/05---------------------42----CR1 ---------- markndannie-----------05/04/05--05/24/05---------------------20----CR1---------- markndannie Link to comment
nooneufo Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 As it is now just over a year ago when people got their interview in less than two months total time from P3, and the history is that big changes means changes in time line. I have decide to change the P4 list this week to assume a new consulate, more room = faster processing time. We will change the P4 list back to a more reflective stepped version, as soon as we see which way the trend goes.Lets just say the optimism is on overdrive for this weeks list. Link to comment
wulongtea Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 nooneufo, I don't understand this new list. Does this mean that I could get the P4 as early as tomorrow? Link to comment
kfman Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 I noticed that you listed a "speed increase" from the embassy... when did that happen? I hope this time my case doesn't disrupt your success line... I am wondering if they put my case in an "in box" somewhere and forgot it... Link to comment
nooneufo Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 The new p4 list is making a new assumption. I am assuming that recent trends means there is going to be a jump in times, and I am unable to come up with a reasonable guess for this week. Instead, I put everyone for tomorrow (Which means for this week as that is what the average p4 date is, a Tuesday). We will have to wait for the week to see what happens, but I have changed the wait days accordingly as if you got the P4 tomorrow. If this does not happen, or there is no further drop in times, I will put this list back to the most recent data instead.Will you, wulongtea get a p4 tomorrow? I doubt it. Too soon, but I went with everyone anyway. If you look at last weeks list, you can see the date based on that data instead. The chart for my optimism, and the week is only starting.There is a total of 23 average days dropped from the beginning of the January P3's to the end. Usually it is two weeks or less.What I call the "crossover week" the third week is substantially different from before. This is the largest drop so far since June 2004.Of course this could just be randomness in the data, since I have to do a lot of projection. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3toInterviewsharpdrop.gif Link to comment
nooneufo Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 Bahan, here are the past month of CR1's inteview dates from the 001 forum with their wait times in format of date of Interview, number of days from P3 to Interview, number of days from P3 to P4. What they are reporting for a P3, is unknown. I don't think it is time to panic yet. 06/01/05 182 14706/06/05 133 9606/10/05 225 18606/13/05 205 17606/13/05 205 17606/16/05 219 19206/16/05 169 13506/16/05 169 14006/21/05 215 16206/21/05 173 11906/29/05 231 19106/30/05 135 97 Link to comment
wulongtea Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 The new p4 list is making a new assumption. I am assuming that recent trends means there is going to be a jump in times, and I am unable to come up with a reasonable guess for this week. Instead, I put everyone for tomorrow (Which means for this week as that is what the average p4 date is, a Tuesday). We will have to wait for the week to see what happens, but I have changed the wait days accordingly as if you got the P4 tomorrow. If this does not happen, or there is no further drop in times, I will put this list back to the most recent data instead.Will you, wulongtea get a p4 tomorrow? I doubt it. Too soon, but I went with everyone anyway. If you look at last weeks list, you can see the date based on that data instead. The chart for my optimism, and the week is only starting.There is a total of 23 average days dropped from the beginning of the January P3's to the end. Usually it is two weeks or less.What I call the "crossover week" the third week is substantially different from before. This is the largest drop so far since June 2004.Of course this could just be randomness in the data, since I have to do a lot of projection. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/P3toInterviewsharpdrop.gifI am all for a "Jump in Time"! I am an optimist too! I am leaving on June 7th to be with my fiancee for a month. Just to be prepared for the unexpected, I will bring everything with me as if we were going to have the interview during that month. Let's hope they get their act together in Guangzhou and get back to their previous performance! I'm ready! Link to comment
alicewu Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 Why the guessing dates of P4 are all 05/24/05? Link to comment
jgrier5 Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 Why the guessing dates of P4 are all 05/24/05? yes, that's strange Link to comment
Guest blsqueaky Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 Thanks for clearing that up. With NVC just acknowledging that they received my paperwork on the 13th of May, I know that I will not see P-4 5-24. I am still planning on September, late. Will let you know when I hear from NVC regarding case complete and sent, which I am hoping for later this week or next week. I can HOPE Link to comment
nooneufo Posted May 23, 2005 Report Share Posted May 23, 2005 If we were to take last months trend, and kept it the same, with the exception of Zingaro who we know is in name check delay, Chad&Tong who we have not heard from, We could reasonably expect the following people might get a P4, depending on the date of the interview.BahanJune03markandyupingjohn90LittleturtleJfong988DocMartin817 Take the P4 list after the ones listed above as a comparison for this week of "If only" Looking at the average wait time for everyone with an Interview scheduled with January P3's, everyone waited 105 days or longer P3 to P4. This tied in with the P3 to Interview time is how I determine where to put someone on the waiting list, based on guessing if they do not provide enough date information.Recently there are two P4's on 001, but because I can not truely determine if the dating is correct, because this happens every month as well it seems, there appears to be a larger jump there than on CFL. But it could be a fluke. However, the charting shows a departure from week to week fluctuations. I will also say the fluctuation of numbers could simply be a part of the move, meaning stacks are getting disturbed, so therefore the order is getting a little mixed. Lucky for some. For consideration, two recent postings on 001 forum. Are they typos? The last tiem they emailed Guz? (No time to make pretty)Name---------P3-------P4------- Interview--------#days--------P3toP4race2time 4/4/2005 5/23/2005 6/21/2005 ----------78 ----------49¶£µ± ------3/25/2005 5/19/2005 7/25/2005 ---------122 --------55 Updated P3 to Interview Chart using 001 dates.Note the radical change from August to September. Is this week the start of the same sort of thing? You know who knows the answer to that.... http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/001P3tointerview23may2005.gif Link to comment
david_dawei Posted May 24, 2005 Report Share Posted May 24, 2005 nooneufo: you normally track P3-P4... but this new trend is really a change in faster P4-Interview (or P3-interview).. Is it worthwhile to do a trend on P4-interviews since that is the gap that is shrinking? Link to comment
nooneufo Posted May 24, 2005 Report Share Posted May 24, 2005 The basic answer is there is no change in the P4 to Interview time based on the week assignment of each month. Each week of each month of P3's is similar to the next. The first initial P4's start at around 55-60 days, then 40-45, then around 30....it varies, but really there is no trend there to speak of shorter notice. The first two weeks seems fairly standard, then the second two weeks appears random. I have so far attibuted this appearence to the variations on the dates that people report and to the lack of a larger sample. Sometimes a few short notices, but this always happens. However, I do monitor it in case there is something there. I can post a new chart of it if you like, but it is on previous chart postings if you want to look back in old lists. Update: while I do not plan on changing the P4 list for this week, it appears after receiving some more specific date information, and that one of those on 001 who got a fast turn around is apparently pregnant, the trend appears to be the same, and there will not be an increase in speed beyond what we have seen so far. One can hope though. As we know, surprises happen. And sometime got to shake things up a little and see if a new idea come out. Link to comment
david_dawei Posted May 24, 2005 Report Share Posted May 24, 2005 The first two weeks seems fairly standard, then the second two weeks appears random. I have so far attibuted this appearence to the variations on the dates that people report and to the lack of a larger sample. Sometimes a few short notices, but this always happens. However, I do monitor it in case there is something there. I can post a new chart of it if you like, but it is on previous chart postings if you want to look back in old lists.I'll look back, thanks.. no need to add any more work to this if it's not conclusive of anything. Link to comment
yuehan123 Posted May 28, 2005 Report Share Posted May 28, 2005 Called DOS 1625 05-28. GUZ entered interview date of June 23. Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now