Eureka!

[nooneufo]

Each week of average of number of days from P3 to Interview (Average of that week)

 

Jul1--Jul2--Jul3--Jul4--Aug1--Aug2--Aug3--Aug4--Sep1--Sep2--Sep3--Sep4--Oct1--Oct2--Oct3--Oct4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

190-\-------183-\--------------------------------------193------------------------------------------------------

-------181-/-----\--------------------------------------|-----\----------------------------------------------------

------------------\-------------------------------------|-------\---------------174-\-------------------------------

-------------------171--------------------------------|---------171-\---------/-----\------------------------------

-----------------------\-------------------------------|-----------------169-/--------\------------------------------

------------------------\---------------167-\---------|-------------------------------\-----------------------------

-------------------------\--------------/------\-------|---------------------------------???-\-----------------------

--------------------------\------------/--------\----- |----------------------------------------163\------------------

--------------------------162 ---162-----------\----|----------------------------------------------\----------------

--------------------------------------------------\---|-----------------------------------------------???-\----------

--------------------------------------------------154/------------------------------------------------------\--------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------136----

 

Each week of average of number of days from P3 to P4 (Average of that week)

Numbers adjusted to fit theory of Monday and Tuesday P4 Processing

 

Jul1--Jul2--Jul3--Jul4--Aug1--Aug2--Aug3--Aug4--Sep1--Sep2--Sep3--Sep4--Oct1--Oct2--Oct3--Oct4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

155-\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------\------147-\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------138-/-----\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------\--------------------------------------------134--------------------------------------------------

---------------------133--------------------------------131/-----\--------------------------------------------------

----------------------------\----------/-128-\----------/-----------\--------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------\-------/---------\------/------------\--------/124-\----------------------------------

--------------------------------\-----/-----------\----/--------------123-/----------???-\---------------------------

---------------------------------119-------------119-------------------------------------???\----------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\--------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------???-\--------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\-----------

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------113----

 

As you can see, the interview times fluctuate and go down.

By manually checking again each CFL member who seems to be reporting a P3 date that GZ has entered in the computer, and the P4 date that GZ enters in the computer, I get a mean time average of 125 days. By checking back on each person who seems to have a good time line, this number, plus or minus four days corresponds to the real dates of Monday and Tuesday P4 assignments. Therefore, I am thinking I have found the holy grail.

Who cares when the interview is! (Ok, just kidding) What is more important is to know the likely P4 date (which means you will know the interview date). I have posted this before, my guess is if you call DOS on Tuesday or Wednesday, and they don't have the P4 date, then it is another week to go.

Post more numbers! Want more accuracy! Please post the date you receive the P3, the date you send the P3, the date the P3 is in the computer, the date GZ does the P4 in the computer, the date you get the P4. Only need December through March months of interviews that are not already on the list. Come on you lurkers, share some numbers.

With the data accumulated, I estimate the likely date of bandj and jgrier P4's might be dated, the following order most likely first;

03/14/05

03/15/05

03/08/05

03/07/05

This is correlating the previous October info against the September info. Unless they speed up more, or slow down, and there is no other delay. With more and correct data, I would be closer to predicting the Interview date, but the P4 I have more confidence in. Based on todays data anyway.

[Trigg]

Put down your calculator and back away slowly. you listened too well to your stats prefessor and now you are3 hopelessly caught in probability hell.

 

Your interview will be one day after the day before your interview and one day before the day after your interview. Not one day sooner.

[Mengxin]

Trigg, It's not that hard. Best days to go fishin' are Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Geez... what are you thinking?

[Trigg]

HEY!!!! You got something aginst Tuesday and monday and those other two days??

[Mengxin]

HEY!!!! You got something aginst Tuesday and monday and those other two days??

******* to you pal. Mondays suck!!! Even the fish know that, Come on.

[Trigg]

Only the fish with a job know that. The older and bigger retired fish think Monday is just the day after the other day.

[Mengxin]

Only the fish with a job know that. The older and bigger retired fish think Monday is just the day after the other day.

But what about all the little fish that do all the work? Bet the don't like Mondays either. There has to be more little fish than big ones, but because of that whole deal with food chain and everything, it's very unfair. I call foul... Conspirancy theroy Darn it! _**************_*****_

[Trigg]

Only the fish with a job know that. The older and bigger retired fish think Monday is just the day after the other day.

But what about all the little fish that do all the work? Bet the don't like Mondays either. There has to be more little fish than big ones, but because of that whole deal with food chain and everything, it's very unfair. I call foul... Conspirancy theroy Darn it! _**************_*****_

When, and only when, you become retired and therefore a 'big fisherman' at the top of the fish chain, will you understand that monday is just anohter day. Anyone can catch a fish that is unemployed and therefore lilely to be skinny but a gainfully retired fish is plump and juicy. Just begging to be put in the wok.

 

Gheeeez, *****rookies need so much *****inspiration.

[nooneufo]

Ahhh, Statler and Waldorf, you may scoff at your leisure. Great minds are above this sort of repartee.

Perhaps you need more detailed evidence. I have removed other calculations so that you are not so easily confused

CFL Member-----------P3---------P4------Interview---P3 to Interview-----P4 to Interview---P3 to P4

 

Razbre------------07/25/04---11/29/04---01/11/05----------170-------------------43--------127

Leejcandle--------07/26/04---11/29/04---01/26/05----------184-------------------58--------126

Jayandwenjie------07/26/04---11/29/04---01/27/05----------185-------------------59--------126

Russ-&-Vivian-----07/27/04---11/29/04---01/04/05----------161-------------------36--------125

Egolessvegan------08/01/04---12/09/04---01/07/05----------159-------------------29--------130

Wolffjw-----------08/02/04---12/09/04---01/14/05----------165-------------------36--------129

Dalede------------08/04/04---12/10/04---01/07/05----------156-------------------28--------128

Jeikun------------08/06/04---12/09/04---01/21/05----------168-------------------43--------125

Jjnumlock---------08/06/04---12/09/04---01/25/05----------172-------------------47--------125

Johns-------------08/07/04---12/14/04---01/21/05----------167-------------------38--------129

Quoging-----------08/14/04---12/12/04---01/18/05----------157-------------------37--------120

Phil-&-Ninqninq---08/31/04---12/28/04---02/01/05----------154-------------------35--------119

Mufasa------------08/31/04---12/28/04---02/22/05----------175-------------------56--------119

Bruce-&-Ying------09/17/04---01/16/05---02/23/05----------159-------------------38--------121

yyp---------------09/20/04---01/25/05---03/11/05----------172-------------------45--------127

John-&-Hai-Yan----09/21/04---01/25/05---03/24/05----------184-------------------58--------126

AnimatorMark------09/21/04---01/25/05---03/29/05----------189-------------------63--------126

Drew21------------09/23/04---01/25/05---03/21/05----------179-------------------55--------124

Yave20B-----------09/25/04---01/25/05---03/28/05----------184-------------------62--------122

sting88-----------09/26/04---01/28/05---03/22/05----------177-------------------53--------124

Rick-Guohua-------09/27/04---01/24/05---03/09/05----------163-------------------44--------119

Yvonne-&-Stan-----09/28/04---01/30/05---03/31/05----------184-------------------60--------124

Amberzhu----------09/29/04---01/31/05---03/31/05----------183-------------------59--------124

rogerluli---------10/22/04---02/22/05---03/09/05----------138-------------------15--------123

[lele]

Ahhh, Statler and Waldorf, you may scoff at your leisure. Great minds are above this sort of repartee.

Perhaps you need more detailed evidence. I have removed other calculations so that you are not so easily confused

CFL Member-----------P3---------P4------Interview---P3 to Interview-----P4 to Interview---P3 to P4

 

Razbre------------07/25/04---11/29/04---01/11/05----------170-------------------43--------127

Leejcandle--------07/26/04---11/29/04---01/26/05----------184-------------------58--------126

Jayandwenjie------07/26/04---11/29/04---01/27/05----------185-------------------59--------126

Russ-&-Vivian-----07/27/04---11/29/04---01/04/05----------161-------------------36--------125

Egolessvegan------08/01/04---12/09/04---01/07/05----------159-------------------29--------130

Wolffjw-----------08/02/04---12/09/04---01/14/05----------165-------------------36--------129

Dalede------------08/04/04---12/10/04---01/07/05----------156-------------------28--------128

Jeikun------------08/06/04---12/09/04---01/21/05----------168-------------------43--------125

Jjnumlock---------08/06/04---12/09/04---01/25/05----------172-------------------47--------125

Johns-------------08/07/04---12/14/04---01/21/05----------167-------------------38--------129

Quoging-----------08/14/04---12/12/04---01/18/05----------157-------------------37--------120

Phil-&-Ninqninq---08/31/04---12/28/04---02/01/05----------154-------------------35--------119

Mufasa------------08/31/04---12/28/04---02/22/05----------175-------------------56--------119

Bruce-&-Ying------09/17/04---01/16/05---02/23/05----------159-------------------38--------121

yyp---------------09/20/04---01/25/05---03/11/05----------172-------------------45--------127

John-&-Hai-Yan----09/21/04---01/25/05---03/24/05----------184-------------------58--------126

AnimatorMark------09/21/04---01/25/05---03/29/05----------189-------------------63--------126

Drew21------------09/23/04---01/25/05---03/21/05----------179-------------------55--------124

Yave20B-----------09/25/04---01/25/05---03/28/05----------184-------------------62--------122

sting88-----------09/26/04---01/28/05---03/22/05----------177-------------------53--------124

Rick-Guohua-------09/27/04---01/24/05---03/09/05----------163-------------------44--------119

Yvonne-&-Stan-----09/28/04---01/30/05---03/31/05----------184-------------------60--------124

Amberzhu----------09/29/04---01/31/05---03/31/05----------183-------------------59--------124

rogerluli---------10/22/04---02/22/05---03/09/05----------138-------------------15--------123

We are not included...or is this list supposed to not be complete? Am I missing something here?

[nooneufo]

lele,

I am only showing the ones that fit the profile of time lines giving more specific dates. I don't have those for you.

[lele]

lele,

I am only showing the ones that fit the profile of time lines giving more specific dates. I don't have those for you.

I gave that data. It is on the website. It is just a matter of searching for it.

 

The fact is, one of our easiest ways of being attacked is that our data is not complete.

 

Many of us place information on the website, but not in our lines at the bottom.

 

By not using all of the available data that we can, we further weaken our stance.

 

Good Luck!

 

I am sure that I am not the only other person who does this...

[nooneufo]

It takes a long time to search that data out. If you post it in some thread somewhere, to search this for each person takes forever. My thanks to those who make this easy by using time lines.

[lele]

Yes, it does!

 

However, research *always* takes a long time. But in the end, it is *far* better to keep searching out data, rather than publishing something incomplete. And if published, and then you realize new data is still out there, or rather, old data was missed, that the data should include the "new" data and be updated.

 

The fact is, there was a discussion a while back in which many people agreed that only *important* points of time should be put on a timeline.

 

Once she has a visa in hand (hopefully in a few days!), I will post our NOA1 and Visa Received Dates. That should be sufficient at this point.

 

All of the AOS timeline information should follow at a later date.

 

Since I do not know what day GZ actually first obtained my paperwork (given the "customs" issues), I really can not contribute more to helping people with a much more detailed timeline.

 

However, reading these threads with people who post such long timelines can at times be frustrating (although extra information is a good thing too).

 

wode liang fen!

[nooneufo]

The data is complete, for those who report it.

The data is only as accurate as those who reported it.

To do such research, a "feeling" of what data is important to post is not enough. Agreement of the "many" does not make it a fact.

Only by having all data possible, can things be discovered.

To repeat, to get more accuracy, need more time lines with the following

Date you receive the P3

Date you send the P3

Date the P3 is in the computer

Date the P4 is in the computer

Date you get the P4

Date of Interview

 

I think I have found something significant. Provide me with accurate data to disprove it.