Trump/Biden/Kissinger and Xi on China

[Greg.D.]

Whose bright idea was the "stir-fried" style cut? A Chinese cook with his/her cleaver can turn an animal into any shape or size pieces when and where they want.

 

We never buy it. Our local shop will thin slice eye of round for hot pot and we'll buy that. Otherwise, bring home the bulk stuff and do a lot of custom cutting and into the freezer - if we're not barbecuing that day.

[Randy W]

in the SCMP - and the People's Daily

 

Make China great again: Communist Party seeks to seize ‘historic’ moment to reshape world order

High-profile comment piece urges country to rally around Xi and realise nation’s global aspirations

 

 

“The world has never focused on China so much and needed China so much as it does now,” a commentary on Monday’s front page of People’s Daily asserted.

 

he 5,500-word article is the latest rallying call for the country to unite around President Xi Jinping – its most powerful leader in decades – to rejuvenate China and achieve its global aspirations.

Under Xi, Beijing has become more confident than ever in how it sees itself in the world. It has repeatedly vowed to take on more global responsibility and provide a “China solution” to the world’s woes, at a time when the United States under President Donald Trump is retreating from its global leadership role and Europe is distracted by Brexit.

 

. . .

 

Jonathan Sullivan, director of the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham, said: “This is heady rhetoric, but it is definitely worth noting because something of this nature does not get published in People’s Daily without official sanction.

“It reflects the Chinese leadership’s belief that right now is a huge opportunity for China to stake out a global leadership role.”

I haven't yet found the People's Daily article, either on their web page, or their Facebook feed.

[Greg.D.]

Nothing in China Daily either.

 

Can't imagine how they view their role in the world when their image is sullied by not just the usual industrial IP appropriations but also a global pushback to their interferience in free life and expression in foreign countries.

 

Though there is some momentum in their tech innovation, their domestic markets are rigged to favor home grown companies and their development projects overseas are bloated Trojan debt horses for the host countries. Meaning: are we looking to China with fondness and respect or with fear?

 

"The commentary cheered China’s progress under the party’s leadership, and listed the numerous ills facing the world and its Western-centred order, ranging from flaws in democracy and existing global governance to the threats of terrorism and climate change."

 

Hmmm ... don't have those problems in China ... we should follow their model!

[Randy W]

This is pretty much a policy statement regarding the Trump era in the Global Times

 

Anxiety pushes US to turn hostile to China

 

 

The US is indeed turning to contain China, trying to reverse its narrowing gap with the economically rising country. An annual report from the office of US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the US mistakenly supported China's WTO membership in 2001. While Washington allegedly wants to punish China over trade, it's hard to take such actions. China has more tools in hand to retaliate against the US.

Tensions will probably flare up between China and the US. But if Washington intends to undermine its ties with Beijing, it needs to reckon with the returns and losses and take a high-stake move to turn its diplomacy with China from a controllable process into a gamble.

Neither China nor the US will win if they enter into a Cold War. This involves much higher political risks for the US. Those in the US who advocate containing China mostly disregard the reality, and hence seriously underestimate the possible repercussions on the US. US society is unprepared for the risks and pain required to "Make America Great Again."

. . . If US society can live with strained ties with China, so can China.

China's pursuit of a win for all is not understandable to all Westerners, and may even be taken by some Americans as a scheme to evade US containment. We should just let it be in terms of ties with the US.

With fewer cards, the US finds it difficult to confront China and sending a naval vessel in the South China Sea is something easier.

Yet as China's military size and quality improve, so does its control of the South China Sea. Provocations by the US military in the waters will inflict more pressure on itself rather than China. The US is doomed to fail in this respect.

While disputes between countries involved in the South China Sea have considerably subsided, China's challenges are growing from US provocation. China is able to send more naval vessels as a response and can take steps like militarizing islands. This can by no means bring honor to the Trump administration.

Getting hawkish on China, the US actually feels chaotic amid anxiety. Washington can hardly use new levers against China. We need to neither take a tit-for-tat stance against the US that sees China as a rival nor make unprincipled concessions on specific issues. We can handle impulsive US moves by employing ancient Tai Chi philosophy - overcoming hardness with a soft approach.

 

 

[amberjack1234]

Where are those guys here that use to argue all day long that China was and always was a big ole paper tiger and nothing more than a Panda teddy bear? You see how money and power change thing. "Absolute power corrupts absolutely". The wife is telling me, from her sources, that the people of China are secretly calling Xi the modern day Emperor. He is slowly taking over and controlling every branch of the government.

[Allon]

Good article, Randy. Maybe it's becasue I agree with it mostly, and like the approach. Wish we had the smarts enough to do the same.

[Greg.D.]

Of course, the tariffs were announced today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/us/politics/china-envoy-seeks-to-defuse-tensions-with-us-as-a-trade-war-brews.html[/size]
China Envoy Seeks to Defuse Tensions With U.S. as a Trade War Brews

WASHINGTON — China’s top economic adviser arrived in Washington this week in an attempt to defuse rapidly escalating tensions with the United States as the prospect of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies looms.

But Liu He, the American-educated technocrat who is now President Xi Jinping’s top economic adviser, may face an insurmountable task.

 

President Trump and his top trade advisers share a widespread view that China cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith and believe that past administrations spent fruitless years pushing the Chinese to make minor changes to their economy that arrived too late, and were too often reversed.

News that Mr. Xi has moved to abolish term limits for himself and his vice president has only increased suspicion in recent weeks that China has no intention of shifting toward a more market-oriented economic model and plans to have a state-dominated economy.


In the coming weeks, the administration will decide whether to impose stiff tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum and restrict investments to penalize China for its alleged theft of American intellectual property.

....... But when Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross presented the results of those talks to the president, Mr. Trump, counseled in part by Mr. Lighthizer, concluded the outcome was a bad deal for the United States, according to people familiar with the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly. One of the breakthroughs from the 100 days of talks, China’s agreement to start receiving shipments of American beef, was first promised to the Bush administration. Another deal, to lift caps on foreign investment in Chinese insurance, banking and securities, had already been pledged to President Barack Obama.

 

Economists say China has fulfilled some of the promises it made to open its economy when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. But under Mr. Xi’s guidance, the country has slowed and even reversed some reforms that would reduce the government’s control over the market, tracking by the Asia Society Policy Institute and the Rhodium Group shows.

Amid this retrenchment, business leaders, policymakers and academics who have long defended China against more hawkish views are suddenly changing their tune. “There’s no question that post-financial crisis, China’s policies and practices have made it more difficult for foreign investors in some sectors of the economy to compete on a level playing field,” said Myron Brilliant, executive vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “There is a frustration that has been boiling over in recent years that the dialogues have not produced enough tangible results.”

Edited March 2, 2018 by Randy W
fix headline (see edit history)

[Randy W]

Xi's policies are a definite shift from his predecessor's. This is why I think that extending his term will be a bad deal for America. A new administration would offer a new opportunity to re-think these policies.

 

This applies to domestic China policies as well, although I think this is where Xi's strength lies. There was a reason why the two-term limit was put in the Constitution.

 

This is especially true in a political system where adulation of "Xi Dada" is all but required.

[Randy W]

This is a VERY good excellent article from the WSJ

 

Xi Jinping’s Ideological Ambitions World communism isn’t Beijing’s goal, but it is encouraging the spread of authoritarianism.

 

Behind this news, sidelining constitutional restraints is a deeper trend: Under Mr. Xi’s leadership, the Communist Party is devouring China’s governing institutions while promoting its ideology for export like never before. Mr. Xi’s message to the world is that autocracy is a viable system of government. That makes China not only an economic and security rival for the U.S. but an ideological one.

 

. . .

 

Yes, Beijing is flaunting its growing diplomatic and military power on the world stage, but it goes far beyond that. Increasingly, China is promoting its system as an alternative to Western democracy, something that was rare even five years ago. Mr. Xi now talks about the “China solution” for a world facing political and financial turmoil. In place of such uncertainties, which Beijing blames on the West, Mr. Xi lauds China’s “wisdom” of global governance.

In steering China toward his vision, Mr. Xi has had to be more open about both the communist system and the country’s ambitions. Since Mr. Xi came to power in 2012, he has centralized power in his office and within the party, while allowing the policy-making functions of the broader bureaucracy to wither. Overseas, China has become more strident in its drive to become a superpower, particularly in Asia, where it aims to dislodge the U.S. as the dominant force.

 

[Randy W]

Another very good EXCELLENT article in the SCMP

 

HOW LONG DOES CHINA’S PRESIDENT XI JINPING PLAN TO HOLD POWER? HERE’S THE MAGIC NUMBER

The removal of term limits on the Chinese presidency gives special meaning to Xi Jinping’s self-imposed schedule for restoring China to its rightful place as a world power

 

 

Within this context, Xi’s supporters have argued that allowing him to continue to build his authority would ensure the political stability needed to continue reforms and prevent the momentum from being disrupted if he stays on beyond 2023. This will help realise the “Chinese dream” of national rejuvenation outlined in Xi’s 19th congress report, including the ultimate goal of building China into a superpower by 2050.

 

. . .

 

It is no coincidence that on the day the announcement of the constitutional change was made public, the People’s Daily, the party’s mouthpiece, carried a full page of four articles attacking electoral systems in the West.

 

. . .

 

After Xi’s five years of impressive governance, his vision of leading China to national rejuvenation has won him popular support among the party’s rank and file and convinced many he is the leader to take the country forward in the next 15-20 years.

 

Others will have to resign themselves to the historic loop from which China has yet to break free in its thousands of years of history: the well-being of the entire country will be at the mercy of a benevolent leader.

Xi’s key message has been that as the party tightens control over all aspects of society, it will do whatever it can to fulfil the Chinese people’s aspirations for a better life in exchange for the legitimacy to maintain authoritarian rule at home.

Chinese and foreign investors may welcome the political stability Xi’s autocratic rule will bring, so long as he delivers what he and his allies have promised – that is, to undertake reforms and market-opening measures which could exceed “international expectations”.

 

[Randy W]

. . . and yet another SCMP contribution. I'm not sure that this is a good article (it seems to be the author's own interpretation). but he does make some good points - I'll just post his conclusion.

 

WITH TERM LIMITS MOVE, XI IS SETTING HIMSELF UP FOR FAILURE

There’s a reason US presidents can leave office at the pinnacle of their success, while British prime ministers trundle on until they inevitably fail ...

 

In short, the economy will struggle to sustain the growth rates needed to realise Xi’s Chinese dream. And Xi’s autocratic style of government will only make it even more difficult to achieve his economic goals. If he were to step down from the presidency after another five-year term, most likely it would be his unfortunate successor who would get the blame. But by scrapping the two-term limit on his time in office, Xi has greatly increased the chances that – like a British prime minister – his political career will be seen to end in failure.

 

 

About the author (no, not the actor)

Tom Holland is a former SCMP staffer, who has been writing about Asian affairs for more than 20 years."

 

 

It doesn't say. but my guess is that he's British

[Randy W]

Again from the SCMP - a good article on US/China relations. Discussion of Xi's move seems to be pretty well censored, but there are signs that it may not be real popular among Chinese people.

 

WHY CHINA’S SILENCE ON XI’S TERM LIMITS MOVE PORTENDS TROUBLE

Forget the trade deficit – China’s trust deficit with the West threatens to do far more damage

It has since transpired that some senior editors at Xinhua are facing disciplinary action, apparently because they jumped the gun and released the report purely for the sake of its news value.

 

. . .

 

More importantly, the episode – and particularly how public discussion of the proposed change has been so tightly controlled – portends trouble for China’s efforts to burnish its image as a responsible world power and heightens international concerns over Xi’s tightening grip and China’s future direction.

 

[Greg.D.]

I am not surprised by the re-write of the law to give him unlimited access to the top power position. I am, however, surprised that Xi feels this is a good time (I realize it is China's last chance) to become the dominant power in the world, to build assymetrical relationships with as many nations as possible, to assert herself militarily, to tighten the screws in Chinese civil society.

 

Because, aside from the fragile nature of the smoke and mirrors domestic economy, China is a ticking demographic bomb. Not so much a problem that the size of the workforce is shrinking, but they will have 240-250 million people over 60 by 2020; I think I saw 500 million over 60 by 2030.

 

i think it will take a significant effort to manage domestic burdens without worrying about dominating their hemisphere or more. And, internationally, they are swimming against a stronger tide than at any time since Tianamen.

 

that is what makes me want to avert my gaze

[Randy W]

Well, remember that we're only barely over 5 years into his original allocation of a total of 10. Any mistakes he makes are liable to be set in stone for some time to come.

 

As far as I/m aware, we still don't know if he's being anointed president for life, or for an unlimited number of five year terms, but at his age, there may not be any difference. That is, will he still need to be re-elected every 5 years?

[Allon]

As with all things Chinese (and Russian) it is power. If he still has the power over the Central Military groups, he will be the man. And as long as he has that power as General Secretary. He clearly holds it over someone like Hu Jintao.

 

He is moving towards the old concept of the Chairman of the Communist Party, that Mao had and Deng wanted to abolish, and he did successfully. Until now.