China (and others) on North Korea

[Allon]

I am not surprised at all by this revelation. The only thing that surprises me is making it public. I am sure the ROK has a list of targets they would like to eliminate when and if the circumstance arises. I would not be surprised if there were foreign nationals (i.e Chinese and Russians) who are also on that list.

[Greg.D.]

In advance of Trump at the U.N.:

U.S. jets drop live bombs in a new, massive show of force aimed at North Korea

The Pentagon deployed a formation of 14 bombers and fighters over the Korean Peninsula on Sunday that also included South Korean and Japanese aircraft, the latest show of force in response to North Korea’s missile launches and nuclear tests.

The warplanes were dispatched after North Korea launched a ballistic missile over northern Japan on Thursday, triggering a widespread emergency alert for those who call the region home. Two Air Force B-1B bombers from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam and four Marine Corps F-35B fighters from Iwakuni, Japan, combined with four South Korean F-15K fighters and four F-2 Japanese fighters, U.S. defense officials said.
The aircraft carried out a simulated attack on the Pilsung training range in South Korea, a few dozen miles from the demilitarized zone separating the North and South, while using live bombs. The U.S. and Japanese jets also flew in formation over waters near Kyushu, Japan, a southern portion of the country that is the closest major island to the Korean Peninsula.

[Allon]

Staggered V formation. Deadly. Love it.

[Randy W]

in the SCMP

 

Kim Jong-un brands Trump a ‘mentally deranged dotard’ in rare direct response to UN speech

‘His remarks ... have convinced me, rather than frightening or stopping me, that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last’

 

Kim’s statement called Trump’s speech “the most ferocious declaration of a war in history”.

“His remarks ... have convinced me, rather than frightening or stopping me, that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last,” Kim said in the statement carried by the KCNA news agency, promising to make Trump “pay dearly for his speech”.

Kim said Trump would face “results beyond his expectation,” without specifying what action North Korea would take next.

“I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire,” Kim said in the rare direct statement, referring to Trump.

 

He offered more vitriol for Trump, saying he was “unfit to hold the prerogative of supreme command of a country, and he is surely a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire, rather than a politician.”

 

[Allon]

Sanctions. Remember Japan was sanctioned many times over by Roosevelt. The straw was oil. FDR thought the Dutch East Indies would be their first target. Then Singapore.

 

He was wrong. The more they think we are going to eliminate them, the more they will try and prevent that from occurring by building more of a war machine.They are playing deterrence too.

[Randy W]

Is he choosing the more favorable of two possible outcomes?

 

Why Kim Jong-un may be banking on a US military strike to ensure his survival

Bob Savic says with China enforcing UN sanctions and getting closer to South Korea, the North Korean leader may well force America’s hand to show Beijing and Moscow his indispensability as the leader of a buffer state

 

 

It may well be, therefore, that Kim has calculated two likely outcomes surrounding his fate: a long-term decline in the importance of Pyongyang to Beijing that sooner or later leads to his demise, or a high-risk venture provoking the US into military intervention against North Korea – compelling Chinese and Russian military interventions to fend off a large-scale US military presence on the Korean peninsula, and affirming Kim’s indispensable position as the leader of a vital buffer state.

The latter outcome may be getting closer by the day, as Chinese and Russian militaries continue to mobilise troops along the North Korean border, ­possibly preparing to avert what Russian President Vladimir Putin recently described as “a global, planetary catastrophe that could lead to a huge loss of life”.

 

 

[Greg.D.]

Yet, if he wasn't so provocative, they wouldn't need to worry about the indespensible buffer state' survival.

 

Better to do regime change. And, Boris doesn't care if it's another authoritarian communist system on their small border, they do fine at their other borders with non-authoritarian states.

 

I'm not a genius, just calling out weak essays that exist just to take up space.

[Randy W]

Yet, if he wasn't so provocative, they wouldn't need to worry about the indespensible buffer state' survival.

 

Better to do regime change. And, Boris doesn't care if it's another authoritarian communist system on their small border, they do fine at their other borders with non-authoritarian states.

 

I'm not a genius, just calling out weak essays that exist just to take up space.

 

Yes, I gave that a little thought before I went ahead and posted it anyway.

[Greg.D.]

Any comment I have about the content of a link would never imply it wasn't worthy of being posted here. I am glad you find these things and I believe you do this because you have a genuine interest in the NK problem and trying to understand different players' strategies.

 

For me, for now, I go with numerous pundits' explanation that Kim is actually very rational and simply feels that he doesn't want to be the next Sadam or Gaddafi who might not have been deposed if they had the bomb. Kim's antagonism directed at China is based on real hatred and resentment arising from, in his view, historical disrespect of the Kim family by China.

 

Unfortunately, I think that if he had reliable nuclear weapons he would turn his attention to the South and try to force them into submission .. so, the war may be coming anyway. As far as surviving as a reliable buffer between China and SK (and the U.S.) I think it is too complex of a rationale where a simpler one would do much better.

 

It would be foolish of China to allow such a dangerous development and threat (to China) to grow right on their border.

[Randy W]

Yes, China is being pushed into a difficult situation. On the one hand, territorial sovereignty and refugee influx would seem to be a primary concerns. The "buffer" factor is widely considered to be important as well. On the other hand, the dangers represented by their militaristic development SHOULD be another.

 

It seems to me that the only way out would be to work WITH China to determine an agreeable course of action, to include an acceptable trigger point.

 

What IS changing now is that NK is becoming an increasing thorn in the side of China

Edited October 7, 2017 by Randy W (see edit history)

[dnoblett]

Up to 200 killed at North Korea's nuclear test site

 

 

 

Up to 200 workers could have been killed after a tunnel collapsed at North Korea’s nuclear test site, according to a media report.

 

Japanese broadcaster TV Asahi said around 100 people were trapped when the unfinished tunnel caved in at the Punggye-ri site, which lies south of the Mantapsan mountain, 50 miles from the border with China.

 

The Telegraph reported that the incident occurred on Oct. 10, citing South Korean news agency Yonhap.

 

Another 100 people could have died in a second collapse as they attempted to rescue their trapped colleagues, TV Asahi reported.

 

The report couldn’t be verified by USA TODAY.

 

MORE...

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/10/31/up-200-killed-north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-report/816276001/

[Randy W]

[danb]

I am curious. Does it seem like Trump's recent trip to Asia did not help the North Korean's problem much? After he returned from his trip I hope / expected to hear of some progress on this serious problem. I haven't heard that. What was the point of his trip? I had hoped for more. What do you guys think? Was his trip a success? Danb

[Randy W]

I am curious. Does it seem like Trump's recent trip to Asia did not help the North Korean's problem much? After he returned from his trip I hope / expected to hear of some progress on this serious problem. I haven't heard that. What was the point of his trip? I had hoped for more. What do you guys think? Was his trip a success? Danb

 

 

I think they scoped him out, and now know how to deal with him - especially China.

 

see http://candleforlove.com/forums/topic/45599-china-on-the-south-china-seas/?p=636472

 

But China IS cutting WAY back on their trade with North Korea.

[chilton747]

I am curious. Does it seem like Trump's recent trip to Asia did not help the North Korean's problem much? After he returned from his trip I hope / expected to hear of some progress on this serious problem. I haven't heard that. What was the point of his trip? I had hoped for more. What do you guys think? Was his trip a success? Danb

All that we hear comes from the news be it true or false. So really no telling if it was a success and how successful it was. Time will tell.