China (and others) on North Korea

[Thomas Promise]

Military analysts say the 1st thing the US backed forces must do is neutralize the missile and artillery along the No Korean side of the 38th parallel . They have 1000s of artillery pieces in position there and could level Seoul within an hour if not checked.

[Allon]

And that is precisely why we have thousands of troops stationed along the DMZ with artillery, tanks, and so on. Some pretty rough units are there too. We have continually moved our forces so NK can't really plan an invasion well. It's one reason why strategically, missiles and nukes for them makes sense.

 

However, considering the dud that was fired today -- now wait a minute. Was it a dud?

 

The US has been defusing missiles shot from Iran for years using computer viruses and other electronic means to make them blow up or go off course. I am sure Iran and now NK are chewing their nails wondering what happened but really do know what happened. And they can't change it to fix it either.

 

So the artillery along the border is a major factor. OPLAN 5027 (the original plan to handle an invasion from NK has been modified a lot but generally involves retreat to about 5 miles south of the DMZ and a whole bunch of B-52 strikes. (See why Guam and Kadena are packed full of 52's, B1's and B2's?). Major industrial and military targets move regularly in SK. But the populace, as usual, is considered expendable. No saving them anyway. Seoul, unless we do a pre-emptive strike (now being considered by "the military.").

 

It can go many ways. Even though NK has a huge army, they have never been in battle and a sustained charge these days is hard to do. SK troops engage in live fire along with US troops.

 

Anyone who has been or especially seen pictures of Okinawa now would roll their eyes. It is an armed camp, mostly Marines. Says something. And it's been building up for years.

 

Here is OPLAN 5027 and all its scenarios.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPLAN_5027

[Randy W]

The outlook from China, from a former SCMP editor. This article is fairly interesting, as it starts off with the Chinese view of the Cold War Nuclear Arms Race.

 

Wang Xiangwei is the former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper

 

WORST OUTCOME FOR LATEST KOREAN TENSIONS? THE STATUS QUO

The crisis on the Korean Peninsula triggers cold war memories, and the time may have come for China to embrace its lessons about nuclear brinkmanship and bargain with the US to avoid worse problems in the future

 

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, when I was growing up in an industrial backwater town in the northeastern province of Jilin, the spectre of nuclear attacks from “American Imperialists” or “Soviet Revisionists” was palpable.

Primary school pupils were made to watch black and white films on how to protect against the effects of a nuclear explosion, a useless gimmick not unlike the “Duck and Cover” film that was popular in the west at the same time.

Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) dictum to “dig tunnels deep, store grain everywhere, and never seek hegemony” was plastered on buildings on the streets.

But if there were fears, they were more than mitigated by the fiery propaganda about China’s own nuclear power in a country where nationalist zeal, ideological fervour and unparalleled worship towards “the brilliant leadership of Chairman Mao” had made the masses believe China was invincible.

 

. . .

 

For decades, China has been propping up the Kim regime, as it needs a buffer zone against the US military presence. But recent developments have shown that “strategic patience” with North Korea has run out for the US after many years of fruitless talks, while China’s frustrations with its neighbour have also swelled.

 

. . .

 

As the dark clouds of war descend over the Peninsula, Beijing will have two choices: one is to be dragged into a conflict if the US undertakes a unilateral strike, and the other is to prepare and cooperate with the US to better protect its interests.

Others may argue that China can use its political influence to try to replace the younger Kim with a friendly ally, but that may prove equally, if not more, challenging.

. . .

The least favourable option is that Trump’s flexing of military muscle turns out to be nothing more than a show and China declines to take decisive actions. But allowing North Korea to pursue its nuclear programme could lead to much bigger problems down the road. Among other things, it will give Washington the perfect excuse to strengthen its military capabilities in the Pacific, or put tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea to guard against the North. In that scenario, the US could win support among countries in the region.

 

[Allon]

We originally pulled out TAC nukes under Bush in the 90's in return for promises to keep the NK nukes from being produced.

 

When Kim Jung-il died in 2011, those promises went out the door., albeit slowly, while nuclear weapons development went on a fast cycle. Moving them back while Fat Boy is in charge could threaten him more than it did his father, who was really looking for economic support, not that Fat Boy is not.

 

Bear in mind that the artillery everyone is talking about that is aimed for Seoul has been sitting there for many years. I hope they have been oiling the barrels and even re-rifling them, keeping the fire pins and charging mechanisms in shape. They look awful old in the pictures I have seen. A field piece like artillery takes constant maintenance. Same with a tank. Most of NK's military arsenal is aged. Even the Mig-29's they managed to get hold of, are going down. A good reason may be the steel wings and internal steel in the engines that are supposed to be able to do Mach 3, and have by one Russian pilot. But that pilot could not sustain the speed because the steel burns out and engine failure is the next obvious step. He had to slow down and land. Later exam by captured MiG 29's found out the reason. They were built to counter the Valkrie bomber that was axed by Jimmie Carter for some good reasons.

 

A lot of scenarios put SK and the US as winners if NK invades. But Seoul will be at least be damaged if air strikes and our artillery do not get to their artillery quickly. If we pre-empt, they would be a first target along with surgical strikes to nuclear facilities and SEAL 6 to kill Fat Boy.

 

All in all, an interesting battle that I hope remains abstract and in the planning stage. I have some close friends in Seoul. At my age, I would take off work, load up, and go there myself if I could be allowed in there. I am already helping some of them with preparedness. They are taking me now very seriously. We are setting up comm lines to me and between themselves. I have told them what to store in their closet for quick evacuation and where to go. But many will not leave without their parents. Get some wheel chairs and a cart that can be horse drawn if possible.

 

http://articles.latimes.com/keyword/nuclear-weapons-south-korea

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-Issues/2011/1229/North-Korea-not-the-only-offender-6-official-photo-fudgings/North-Korea-s-chronic-photoshopping

[Randy W]

Reported in the SCMP - remember that the article concerns remarks made by Xi, but filtered through Trump. This is apparently getting a LOT of attention in South Korea.

 

Trump claims ‘Korea actually used to be a part of China’, but does that stack up?

US President’s version of a history lesson he says he got from Xi Jinping has come under fire in South Korea

 

It’s a claim that has sparked a fierce response in South Korea.

In retelling a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal: “He then went into the history of China and Korea. Not North Korea, Korea. And you know, you’re talking about thousands of years ... and many wars. And Korea actually used to be a part of China. And after listening for 10 minutes, I realised that it’s not so easy.”

This claim was largely buried in the April 12 news coverage of Trump’s wide-ranging interview with the Journal, during which he made numerous flip-flops on several policy areas. But it belatedly went viral in South Korea after a Quartz article drew attention to it on Tuesday.

 

. . .

 

Trump’s phrasing that the Korean Peninsula “actually used to be a part of China” may be his version, not a verbatim account of Xi’s history lesson, and the two spoke through interpreters. The White House did not respond to a request for clarification.

But there is plenty misleading about Trump’s claim.

Korea has been long intertwined culturally and historically with China but was not under direct and official territorial control by China, despite repeated Chinese invasions.

 

 

[warpedbored]

At one time Korea was a protectorate of China. Isn't that the same excuse China used to annex Tibet?

[Allon]

Yes, it is. The argument was used a long time ago with Teddy Roosevelt. When Teddy accepted the argument from Japan that Korea had always been part of Japan and Koreans were a lower form of life,.Korea was occupied by the Japanese with Teddy's blessing. . Of course, we all know how the occupation was then, and later when they occupied most of their territory in WWII. A lot of war criminals were hanged as a result.

 

But TR was the cause. He handled it in secret and when the deal was done and became public, he got the Nobel Prize.

 

Check out: The Imperial Cruise: A Secret History of Empire and War, by James Bradley.

[Randy W]

It seems to me that the only solution would be to extend the "demilitarized zone" north to the Chinese border - i.e., to make ALL of North Korea sort of a no-man's land.

 

I have no idea how this could be accomplished, OR how it would be administered.

 

In the SCMP

 

Five reasons why the US cannot attack North Korea like it did Syria

Treaties, uncertainties over Pyongyang’s nuclear readiness, and the sheer scale of armaments on both sides maintain a delicate truce on the Korean peninsula

 

 

Fighting halted on July 27, 1953 under an armistice signed between Washington and Beijing. If the US initiated an attack, it would break the treaty endorsed by the United Nations.

 

. . .

 

China is North Korea’s ally. In 1961, the two countries signed the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty, in which both parties are obliged to offer immediate military and other assistance to the other in the case of an outside attack. This treaty has been prolonged twice, and is valid until 2021.

 

. . .

Both South Korea and Japan prefer non-military option. The South Korean capital, Seoul, is only about 40km from the border and is particularly vulnerable to North Korean attack. Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel, was quoted by an interview by The Atlantic magazine as saying the US “cannot protect Seoul, at least for the first 24 hours of a war, and maybe for the first 48”. Even though former US president Bill Clinton seriously debated bombing the Yongbyon reactor in 1994, he was convinced by his defence officials that the intensity of combat with North Korea “would be greater than any the world has witnessed since the last Korean War”.

 

[Randy W]

 

Reported in the SCMP - remember that the article concerns remarks made by Xi, but filtered through Trump. This is apparently getting a LOT of attention in South Korea.

 

Trump claims ‘Korea actually used to be a part of China’, but does that stack up?

US President’s version of a history lesson he says he got from Xi Jinping has come under fire in South Korea

 

It’s a claim that has sparked a fierce response in South Korea.

In retelling a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal: “He then went into the history of China and Korea. Not North Korea, Korea. And you know, you’re talking about thousands of years ... and many wars. And Korea actually used to be a part of China. And after listening for 10 minutes, I realised that it’s not so easy.”

This claim was largely buried in the April 12 news coverage of Trump’s wide-ranging interview with the Journal, during which he made numerous flip-flops on several policy areas. But it belatedly went viral in South Korea after a Quartz article drew attention to it on Tuesday.

 

. . .

 

Trump’s phrasing that the Korean Peninsula “actually used to be a part of China” may be his version, not a verbatim account of Xi’s history lesson, and the two spoke through interpreters. The White House did not respond to a request for clarification.

But there is plenty misleading about Trump’s claim.

Korea has been long intertwined culturally and historically with China but was not under direct and official territorial control by China, despite repeated Chinese invasions.

 

 

 

 

 

The Global Times responds

 

South Korea overly sensitive about historical ties with China

 

Neither of these is an exact record of the conversation between Trump and Xi during their meeting. Some media explained that there may have been mention that during the Han Dynasty (206BC-AD220), four "commanderies" in the northern part of Korea were set up, and during the Yuan Dynasty (1279-1368), the government used to control the kingdom of Goryeo. Trump may have believed that this means Korea "used to be a part of China."

Due to Trump's freewheeling style of speaking and given that all the information was released by Trump, Seoul should go to Washington for an explanation rather than questioning Beijing.

The Korean Peninsula had been intertwined politically, culturally and economically with China in different parts of history. Historians from both sides hold different opinions toward the nature of such a relationship.

South Korea has been particularly sensitive about it and debated fiercely with China in 2003 over the history of Goryeo. China has never wanted to politicize that period of history and showed a goodwill gesture to cool down the debate. The talk between Chinese and US leaders about the Korean Peninsula situation has boosted bilateral cooperation and will shed light on how to address the North Korean nuclear issue. The content of the talks was made public long ago. Seoul, as a non-participant in the talks, should not indulge in a diplomatic confrontation against China over a few words from Trump.

 

 

[Allon]

The Chinese will occupy North Korea if there is a war. There was a memo of understanding of that that goes way back. I will try and find it.

 

The US military has never wanted to occupy North Korea but has said it will if it has too, despite MacArthur's bluster.

[Randy W]

The Chinese will occupy North Korea if there is a war. There was a memo of understanding of that that goes way back. I will try and find it.

 

The US military has never wanted to occupy North Korea but has said it will if it has too, despite MacArthur's bluster.

 

 

I don't see another Korean War as a solution - that's why my thinking is that some kind of a de-militarized zone is the only possibility. I don't think that South Korea or we would agree to allow Chinese occupation - and China is unlikely to agree to either U.S. or South Korean occupation..

 

In the meantime, it seems to be the status quo all over again - the big pow-wow at the White House was a boondoggle. "He spoke to the senators for less than three minutes, mainly promoting his efforts to persuade President Xi Jinping of China to put more economic pressure on North Korea."

 

The Drumbeats Don’t Add Up to Imminent War With North Korea

 

There are other signs that the tensions fall short of war. Mr. Kim continues to appear in public, most recently at a pig farm last weekend. South Koreans are not flooding supermarkets to stock up on food. There is no talk of evacuating cities and no sign the United States is deploying additional forces to South Korea. Nor is the American Embassy in Seoul advising diplomats’ families to leave the country.

All those things happened in the spring of 1994, when President Bill Clinton was considering a pre-emptive strike on a North Korean reactor to prevent the North from extracting plutonium that it could use to make a bomb. That is the closest the United States has come to a military clash with North Korea since the end of the Korean War in 1953.

 

 

[Allon]

Yes, but the gist of the article I read says that China would act as a kind of regent with some involvement of South Korea and the US. I was interested only in the idea at the time, not the details so....It was quite a while ago.

 

One detail I do remember was tac nukes as a real possibility. And that came from my father, a wing commander during the Cold War and stationed there for a while.

 

I just hope it does not get to a war. I have too many good friends there, especially women, and they are really afraid. Can't live like that forever.

[Allon]

I found a similar plan that is later than the one I remember but quite close. OPLAN 5029:

 

 

Chinese plans

With the closeness of relations between North Korea and the People's Republic of China, the Chinese government has refused to discuss the existence or details of any contingency plans for unrest in North Korea. Great speculation exists over the nature or intent of any potential Chinese intervention.

One report written by the United States Institute of Peace and the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggested a strong preference for authorization and coordination under a UN mandate, but a willingness to act unilaterally in restoring order to the event of a sudden collapse (including the deployment of soldiers and other personnel for humanitarian, peacekeeping, and nonproliferation purposes).^[6] Some Chinese specialists interviewed were concerned about the United States and North Korea may strike a compromise deal in which Pyongyang is allowed to keep its nuclear weapons, leaving Beijing isolated in its insistence on a denuclearized Korea (in a similar manner as happened with India).

In the trial of former South Korean spy Park Chae-seo, Park claimed knowledge of a contingency plan named “the Chick Plan” from a director-level Chinese intelligence official (its name referring to a large mothering hen protecting the small eggs beneath her).^[7] The claimed plan included a line of demarcation between the towns of Nampho and Wonsan, along the Daedong River, where Chinese forces could form a zone of occupation in which to restore order, prevent refugees from entering China, and form a buffer zone against South Korean and American forces. Park also claimed that no Chinese investment in North Korea had been allowed past this line and that PLA soldiers had been stationed in Shenyang, with operational roads built over the Yalu and Tumen Rivers at the cost of KRW2.5 trillion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPLAN_5029

 

I do not see this plan working. As with most plans, they change at the first bullet, and this one is so vague it would definitely change. I do see some form of Chinese involvement if only to protect their own borders. They are already getting inundated with refugees from NK. Some of the stories are heart rending. Woman are being caught and sold to men who have no women in the rural areas. Children starving. Some of them actually make it across the river to China onlly to be recaught again. The favored way of keeping them together is to drive a cable through their hand.

 

I have met several Korean guys on the net who claim to be from DPRK but when I question them about how they are able to post from there, they relent and say well, we are reallu in Astana or Almata, Kazakhstan. (Both places for years have been refugee sites for not only Koreans but Chinese.) Some beautiful woman there.

[amberjack1234]

I don't have a problem with China taking over the country at least they can be reasoned with and are not nearly as likely to starting shoot off nukes indiscriminately although they are getting a little pushy since they have got all that money. That will never happen though. Fatty Kim will never give up his power voluntarily. No dictator has to my knowledge. One way or another he needs to go whatever it takes.

[Thomas Promise]

They fired another missile off again that failed.

 

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/28/north-korea-carried-out-missile-test-us-officials-say/22060553/