China (and others) on North Korea

[Randy W]

Just an idea: maybe Kim and NK have had it with being China's dysfunctional cousin. Maybe he went to China - his "communist" neighbor - and saw China enjoying Hyundai's and Samsung's and all manner of food and went home with a "I was dutifully in China's pocket and all I got was this lousy, poorly performing junior nuclear bomb" T-shirt.

 

Because the math says he could trade the nuke for all the benefits his south Korean brother has and latch onto their economic engine and leave the 50's behind. How to share power? It can happen, just like North Dakota and South Dakota do it.

 

 

Maybe Kim Jong Un has a bit more power now since the collapse of their test site to do these things.

[Randy W]

Kim Jong-un's second surprise visit to China

South China Morning Post

5 hours ago ·

Kim Jong-un has made yet another surprise visit to China – this time, by plane.

 

 

 

 

 

[Greg.D.]

With caveats too obvious to mention, more pundits suggesting Kim is indeed ready to dump the nukes in exchange for an economic revival, with good relations with the South and the West (from WaPo, remember - educated guessers):

 

China tries to bring North Korea back into the fold

excerpts:

 

Xi understands that Kim, in reaching out to Trump and Moon, is seeking to dilute China’s stranglehold on his country. China accounts for more than 80 percent of North Korea’s trade. It supplies the bulk of North Korea’s energy, and companies in China have for decades kept North Korea’s economy afloat. China has used this leverage in recent months to force the North to rein in its nuclear ambitions.

............

As Xi lectured Kim, according to Xinhua, “the China-DPRK traditional friendship has been a treasure of both countries. It is an unswerving principle and the only correct choice for both countries to develop the friendly and cooperative China-DPRK relations.”

 

It’s common knowledge that a united Korean Peninsula is feared in Beijing; it means a peninsula most probably under the control of a democratic government that might even exert a pull on the 2.3 million Koreans who live along the border in China. But China also is worried about the prospect of a North Korea with good relations with South Korea and even, perhaps, the United States. Xi needs North Korea in his camp, and the meeting in Dalian only served to underscore China’s unease with Kim’s outreach to his neighbor to the south and the United States.

 

and:

Why North Korea will give up its nukes

 

But by historically meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in Friday, Pyongyang has shown what is most important. Nukes are, and always were, subservient to regime well-being.

Kim, who has god-like status among his people, has in effect told them four things:

1) The nukes program has served its purpose, and we will stop work on it now.
2) All efforts will focus on making you rich, like the Chinese and South Koreans.
3) I have started a new era of Korean history by reaching out to the South.
4) Our nukes have tamed the Yankees, and now I am going to trade them for permanent security and leverage to make you rich.

 

Kim cannot now say, “Oops, I misread the situation — let’s go back to being poor but proud with nukes!” He has mounted a tiger and cannot get off without being eaten. He must ride it all the way to his destination.

 

And finally, let’s give credit to Kim. He was dealt a weak hand. His is the smallest, poorest and least-loved country in Northeast Asia, by far. He faces four existential threats to his regime’s existence, from: the United States (militarily), South Korea (culturally, with the siren song of absorption), internally (a coup could rise from a newly entrepreneurial class if things go too slow or from the masses below if the economy shatters) and China (Chinese high-handedness and Korean prickliness go back millennia).

 

Regarding China, people who really understand North Korea reference this saying: “When the door is open, they curse America. When the door is closed, they curse China.” It is no different today than in the past. Maximum pressure meant the Chinese maneuvered and positioned themselves as the only lifeline to North Korea — a situation as odious to Pyongyang as it is dangerous. Kim’s uncle was executed under suspicion of some kind of collusion with China; his half-brother was poisoned to death in Malaysia because he was a possible alternative ruler in any China-inspired coup.

[Allon]

We will see how long that lasts.

[Randy W]

Perhaps the North Korean power hierarchy just got stretched too thin with the games being played. These things normally don't fall apart until AFTER the big summit meeting and concessions.

 

from the SCMP on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/scmp/videos/10156351239924820/

 

These seem like pretty lame explosions for "dismantling a test site", but remember that the big cavern already collapsed back in Sept. We may not hear much from them for a while.

 

North Korea dismantles nuclear test site

South China Morning Post

3 hours ago ·

North Korea has dismantled its nuclear test site. Here's what it looks like.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/scmp/videos/10156351239924820/

[True Blue]

I heard this theory on a radio talk show and it actually makes some sense. It goes like this

 

If Kim Jong Un, Trump and South Korea agree to play nice and North Korea gives up Nukes in exchange for a US troop pull out,

 

then Japan will feel threatened with no more US presence in South Korea.

 

Which leads to Japan building up its self defense force,

 

Which is not something that China wants to see given every 2nd Chinese movie is about Japanese atrocities in WW2,

 

So Uncle Xi is trying to stir the pot to see the US troops stay in South Korea.....

 

 

Seemed a bit far fetched when I first heard it, but on further reflection.....???

[Randy W]

I think it's that both the North Korean AND the U.S. governments are equally as disheveled

[Randy W]

Look for SOMETHING to come of the nuclear summit with NK - I wish they'd open one in Yulin while they're at it. All we have is a McDonald's.
The Chinese word for hamburger is "hanbobo", which refers to the BUN, and not the meat INSIDE the bun - you invariably get a "chicken burger".

 

in the SCMP

 

 

North Korea won’t denuclearise, but might open fast-food joint to appease Trump: report

[Randy W]

A "cultural" issue ?? How to pay their bills while not violating sanctions - in the SCMP

 

US tries to find discreet way to pay Kim Jong-un’s hotel during Trump summit ... and it’s US$6,000 per night

The prideful but cash-poor pariah state requires that a foreign country foot the bill at its preferred lodging and The Fullerton presidential suite costs more than US$6,000 per night

 

 

In 2014, when former US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper Jnr visited North Korea to retrieve two prisoners, his North Korean hosts served him an “elaborate 12-course Korean meal,” the veteran intelligence official said, but then insisted that he pay for it.

 

. . .

 

Any payment for North Korean’s accommodation would run afoul of Treasury Department sanctions, said Elizabeth Rosenberg, a former Treasury official. The transaction would require the Office of Foreign Assets Control to “temporarily suspend the applicability of sanctions” through a waiver, she said.

The United States is expected to request these waivers from the UN and Treasury for a range of payments associated with North Korea’s travel, but a long list of exemptions could draw scrutiny.

 

 

[Randy W]

This may explain Kim's path forward from here - the claim is that the military controls EVERY aspect of the North Korean economy - including the claim that he has already “completed” the development of his nuclear arsenal.

 

from the SCMP and the AP

 

How the Kim-Trump summit could deliver a major payday for North Korea’s military

Since he took power, Kim has set his sights on simultaneously developing the nation’s nuclear forces and its economy

 

 

 

Kim’s thinking on how his military fits in to his plans to foster detente on the Korean Peninsula and negotiate security guarantees from Washington may become clearer when he sits down with President Donald Trump next week in Singapore.

But one thing is already clear. Kim cannot survive without his loyal troops. Whatever grand strategy he has in mind will strongly reflect their interests – and that includes the ability to make lots of money.

 

 

[True Blue]

Rodman to the rescue ! He's best buds with Kim Jung Un, he's best buds with Trump and his is the voice of reason at the negotiating table... ; )

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/06/05/dennis-rodman-north-korea-summit/675696002/

[Randy W]

I guess China thinks they'd be free to resume the war, if they're left out of the agreement.

 

from the SCMP

 

Korean peace declaration ‘is possible without China, but would be weaker’

Suggestions of a formal deal when Donald Trump meets Kim Jong-un, as China’s state media claims end-of-war pacts are invalid without Beijing

 

 

That incensed Global Times, a state-owned Chinese tabloid, which argued in an editorial this week that China’s involvement was needed to ensure any deal to formally end the decades-long conflict was “more secure”, otherwise it could be overturned.

“An end-of-war agreement without China’s participation is invalid,” it said. “If Washington, Seoul and Pyongyang sign a declaration to end the war, that would be a good thing … but such a declaration cannot be legally linked to the Korean Armistice Agreement.”

. . .

Lee Ki-beom, a research fellow in the International Law and Dispute Settlement Programme at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said that declaring a formal end of the war would not be a transformation of the 1953 armistice, so it could be made without Beijing’s participation.

. . .

It would be more effective to involve China, but Beijing would then make sure its own demands were included in the deal, Lee said, adding that those would probably include requests aimed at weakening US influence in the region.

 

[True Blue]

Well China was involved in the war as were many UN nations such as Britan, France, Austrailia, New Zealand, Canada, Belgium, Holland and others who had troops there so getting everyone on board with a basic peace treaty would be a good thing if it is possible to keep the agreement short and sweet and limited to ending the Korean War.

 

It won't be feasible to address everyone's laundry list of regional issues but basic things that would be involved in ending a war such as return of soldier remains on both sides should be included in my opinion.

[Randy W]

A good summary of the dilemmas that need to be faced by the negotiations - from the NY Times - let's hope that Trump is up to the task

 

Trump Dangles Aid Before North Korea. But Does Kim Jong-un Want It?

For one, it has made clear that its top priority is its security.

But it also does not want to appear as if it is desperate for handouts.

Mr. Kim is a proud leader who does not want to appear vulnerable or susceptible to economic bribes. And the North does not want to be too dependent on the United States — or any other country — for its economic well-being.

In fact, Mr. Kim’s government appeared so offended by the suggestion that the North should surrender its nuclear weapons to reap riches from the United States that it specifically objected to that idea this month when threatening to call off the June 12 Singapore summit meeting.

. . .

Invoking the possibility of a secure and prosperous future, Mr. Pompeo made clear that the United States is looking for the “complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” a formulation to which North Korea has yet to agree.

To change his mind, analysts say, Mr. Kim must be persuaded of a few things: that the country, and Mr. Kim himself, will be safe without nuclear weapons; that it can control the terms of economic engagement so it strengthens rather than weakens the regime; and that Mr. Kim can present any deal as a victory for self-reliance rather than a cry for economic help.

“It’s like trying to convince a devout Christian that the pathway to enlightenment and eternal life is to abandon Jesus for something else,” Mr. Pinkston said. “It’s that profound.”

 

[True Blue]

How Trump and Kim should settle