P3 number crunching

[robhon]

Here are a couple spreadsheets I'm using to try to make sense out of this mess. I'm really good at Excel but I'm still a web novice. Right now I'm just posting these pages at JPEG's on my .Mac account.

 

http://homepage.mac.com/robhon/GZ_Processi...otoAlbum19.html

 

I'm starting to get some insight into what's happening. If you look carefully at the rec'd at GZ dates and the P3 dates you start to see some similarities. You can almost see which boxes have been opened and processed, which have been opened and not completely processed, and which have not been opened at all. ...And I'll tell you this, it ain't first-in/first-out.

 

If I can get the DHL information for all these NVC ship dates and the information from the remaining P3 Pit Crew, I think I will have some decent information to go on the attack with.

[JerryL]

On the Windows version of Excel, you can save the spreadsheet in HTML format. Never used the Mac version but I wonder if it would have the same feature...

 

Yes it's pretty obvious that when the boxes are opened and processed since there is an extremely high correlation between NVC dates and corresponding P3 dates. (We have any statisticians here? ) So once a box is opened, I can believe it's FIFO. I just don't think the boxes are processed in a FIFO order.

 

Jerry

[robhon]

On the Windows version of Excel, you can save the spreadsheet in HTML format.  Never used the Mac version but I wonder if it would have the same feature...

 

Yes it's pretty obvious that when the boxes are opened and processed since there is an extremely high correlation between NVC dates and corresponding P3 dates. (We have any statisticians here?  )  So once a box is opened, I can believe it's FIFO.  I just don't think the boxes are processed in a FIFO order.

 

Jerry

Exactly. They are doing FIFO once you're in their system. They are not doing FIFO with the boxes that are delivered by DHL.

 

You can see the box that arrived on 8/6 was opened and processed. The box delivered on 10/23 was opened and processed. The boxes delivered on 9/8 and 9/11 have not been opened.

 

If I can get all this data filled in I'm sure I can rattle some people's cages.

[keelec]

You can see the box that arrived on 8/6 was opened and processed.  The box delivered on 10/23 was opened and processed.  The boxes delivered on 9/8 and 9/11 have not been opened.

 

If I can get all this data filled in I'm sure I can rattle some people's cages.

Rob,

 

Actually, one of the boxes leaving USA on 8/8/03 and arriving 9/11/03 was opened (P3 on Oct 25).

 

I have to say that I don't really see the FIFO correlation. If you read down the collumn on the 001 page, it goes more or less in the same order that the NVC shipped and GZ received columns go.

 

There appears to be strong correlations of clustering of P3 dates around NVC shipped/GZ receipt dates. Look at GZ date 10 Oct. 3-P3 packets were shipped out within a day of each other. NVC dates of Sept 15-18 had 6 P3 packets all done within a couple of days of each other.

 

The problem is that there seem to be several big holes. Why did only half of the Oct 10 group receive their P3 packets? Why did only 1 person in the 9/11 group receive a packet?

 

They definately seem to be clustering their processing (1 box at a time), but also seem to add a random element to keep everyone guessing.

 

I still wonder what processing is being done at the Embassy before the P3. Are they just filling out paperwork for the P3 in which case they should process the cases one after another? Or, are they doing name checks and additional processing (which should have been done at the NVC before sending the info to GZ).

 

I think they just don't really care which box of applications they or which ones they process.

[mikem]

Here are a couple spreadsheets I'm using to try to make sense out of this mess.  I'm really good at Excel but I'm still a web novice.  Right now I'm just posting these pages at JPEG's on my .Mac account.

 

http://homepage.mac.com/robhon/GZ_Processi...otoAlbum19.html

 

I'm starting to get some insight into what's happening.  If you look carefully at the rec'd at GZ dates and the P3 dates you start to see some similarities.  You can almost see which boxes have been opened and processed, which have been opened and not completely processed, and which have not been opened at all.  ...And I'll tell you this, it ain't first-in/first-out.

 

If I can get the DHL information for all these NVC ship dates and the information from the remaining P3 Pit Crew, I think I will have some decent information to go on the attack with.

He you go Rob

DHL date sfor mine and the info at bottom is accurate.

 

here are the DHL tracking numbers for November 7, 2003. Four packages were sent from the NVC on Friday 11/7..

9262011614--Delivered 11/13

9262011942--Clearance delay as of 11/17

9262012152--Delivered 11/13

9262012874--Processed for clearance on 11/10

Somewhere in these four packages is our documents..I was informed by NVC that ours got shipped on the 7th..

Mike

[robhon]

Rob,

 

Actually, one of the boxes leaving USA on 8/8/03 and arriving 9/11/03 was opened (P3 on Oct 25).

 

I have to say that I don't really see the FIFO correlation.  If you read down the collumn on the 001 page, it goes more or less in the same order that the NVC shipped and GZ received columns go.

What I see is that, when they open a box they do those cases. In general there's a correlation between the NVC ship date and P3, except the fact that there are all these missing P3's as you go down the line.

 

I guess what I think I'm seeing is, if they open your box you get processed. If the don't, you don't.

[keelec]

I guess what I think I'm seeing is, if they open your box you get processed.  If the don't, you don't.

Yes,

They may do it a box at a time, or perhaps even a group of boxes at a time.

 

Rather than LIFO, I think it is more that they don't really care to find out what is next in line which is nearly as bad.

 

As far as I can tell, the major step before P3 is the data entry and mailing out the letter. Not too much work there.

 

Of course, they have a limited number of interviews to do too so they don't want to get the P3's too far ahead of the P4's.

 

It is possible that NVC groups some of the K1-K4 applications in some boxes (so many are done in groups), but then randomly interdisperses the rest with other visa applications (V1-V4, business/labor, & etc).

 

----- Clifford -----