Guest Tony n Terrific Posted January 4, 2009 Report Share Posted January 4, 2009 Its not getting any bettter. My wife said some of the large construction projects in Nanning have stopped or been put on hold. I tyhink Nanning will weather an economic down turn better since it is China's vegetable basket. People have to eat in could times as well as bad. Link to comment
Tony_onrock Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 It is happening and getting worse. I am in Chengdu now and witnessing and experiencing it first hand. The train station is jam packed, the airplane half empty! There are not going to be sufficient jobs locally in Sichuan to absort it. Got news today that the government is mobilizing the army to standby to crack down any large scale unrest. Now China has a political risk for investment.Well, I took a real vacation during Christmas and New year, stay at home without having conference calls and work! This is the first time in 3 years and I will be taking another vacation in a couple of weeks. On Monday, boss told me to take the afternoon off, after seeing me staring at the window glass, agitated because I have nothing to do. Citi and Goldman laid off their entire PRC real estate team, MS shifted the deal guys to reception! This is really bad. Link to comment
rogerluli Posted January 6, 2009 Report Share Posted January 6, 2009 It's really bad as Tony says but these things have to happen to rebalance the books. Trees don't grow to the sky, the Dow is NOT at 50,000, and China cannot expect 10%+ growth every year... Link to comment
Stepbrow Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 The construction cranes in GZ are mostly still. Only a few building sites are still under construction. Link to comment
Guest Tony n Terrific Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 China is facing surging protests and riots in 2009 as rising unemployment breed discontent throughout the land.The Chinese authorities estimated that close to 10 million rural migrant workers have lost their jobs so far. Including students who graduated in 2008 and had not found work, there would be more than 7 million university and college graduates hunting for jobs this year. Link to comment
GZBILL Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 The construction cranes in GZ are mostly still. Only a few building sites are still under construction. This also happened about 11 years ago in Guangzhou. For several years there were shells of buildings just sitting there with no contruction. Finally the government confiscated the properties and sold them to the highest bidder. For example, there is a big building on the southwest corner of Tianhe Bei and TiYu Xi Road. It has been there, under construction, for 13 years. Several buildings on Tianhe Road are in the same condition. Link to comment
Guest Tony n Terrific Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 The construction cranes in GZ are mostly still. Only a few building sites are still under construction. This also happened about 11 years ago in Guangzhou. For several years there were shells of buildings just sitting there with no contruction. Finally the government confiscated the properties and sold them to the highest bidder. For example, there is a big building on the southwest corner of Tianhe Bei and TiYu Xi Road. It has been there, under construction, for 13 years. Several buildings on Tianhe Road are in the same condition.This also happened in Houston, Tx. when the oil bust hit in 1986. Link to comment
rogerluli Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Projections are now that 2009 will see total unemployment rise to 9.8% in China...The official numbers of 4.2% do not include migrant workers... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia Link to comment
bob&haiqing Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Haiqing and I were in downtown Shenzhen Monday night between 8:30 pm and 10:30 pm and I was amazed at how many people there were on the street at that time of night. While it's not unusual for so many people to be out, it was unusual on a work day and at that time of night ... unemployed perhaps Most of the people seemed to be young ... 20's - 30's and I detected and edginess that I have not seen in China before as they seemed to wander somewhat aimlessly through the streets. The stores by contrast were mostly empty so it made me wonder what were all these people doing? Haiqing seems confident that everything in China will be ok, but then again she has a good secure job so her perspective is different than what others in China are experiencing. She was not aware of the mass layoffs or riots here in China as it's not in the newspapers here. By contrast she is aware of the financial hardships in the USA as that does make the papers here. We have talked about the financial challenges the US and China face and I've told her that being in the US would be a safer place to be as the threat of mass riots in the US are much less as people there have an underlying faith in the government and system that things will eventually correct themselves. Here in China if the people's faith in the government and the system gets too low I think it could be a recipe for all hell to break loose ... all I know is that I'll be glad to get on the plane back to the good ole USA in 28 days! Have a terrific day everyone!Bob Link to comment
david_dawei Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 I am going back to my hometown too the layoffs is no kidding. You too little sister??? Well Dylan is coming to your rescue very soon now... yes Jin was talking about this today, over 300,000 workers have returned to kunming as their work dried up in other cities.ah! interesting point !! Migrant workers going home, almost against their will... after all that reform to recognize migrant workers in other cities... maybe but really part of the ebb and flow... Link to comment
rogerluli Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Haiqing and I were in downtown Shenzhen Monday night between 8:30 pm and 10:30 pm and I was amazed at how many people there were on the street at that time of night. While it's not unusual for so many people to be out, it was unusual on a work day and at that time of night ... unemployed perhaps Most of the people seemed to be young ... 20's - 30's and I detected and edginess that I have not seen in China before as they seemed to wander somewhat aimlessly through the streets. The stores by contrast were mostly empty so it made me wonder what were all these people doing? Haiqing seems confident that everything in China will be ok, but then again she has a good secure job so her perspective is different than what others in China are experiencing. She was not aware of the mass layoffs or riots here in China as it's not in the newspapers here. By contrast she is aware of the financial hardships in the USA as that does make the papers here. We have talked about the financial challenges the US and China face and I've told her that being in the US would be a safer place to be as the threat of mass riots in the US are much less as people there have an underlying faith in the government and system that things will eventually correct themselves. Here in China if the people's faith in the government and the system gets too low I think it could be a recipe for all hell to break loose ... all I know is that I'll be glad to get on the plane back to the good ole USA in 28 days! Have a terrific day everyone!Bob Very interesting observations Bob...We all have to hope that things do not get out of hand... Link to comment
Guest Tony n Terrific Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 It is not getting any better in China. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090122/bs_af..._20090122083823 Link to comment
tsap seui Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 The lil' rabbit well understands that the China tv and papers talk ca-ca about the conditions in China, she says they always say how good things are. Her city is a small 1.4 million people "puddle in the road hamlet" in NE China and she says things are hardly changed up there from the down turn, as they never really felt the impact of jobs and growth when things were rolling. I guess "have not, want not." tsap seui Link to comment
GZBILL Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 The lil' rabbit well understands that the China tv and papers talk ca-ca about the conditions in China, she says they always say how good things are. Her city is a small 1.4 million people "puddle in the road hamlet" in NE China and she says things are hardly changed up there from the down turn, as they never really felt the impact of jobs and growth when things were rolling. I guess "have not, want not." tsap seui It's not going to be getting better anytime soon. Just heard from some bank executives that they've been told that after the Chinese New Year things will get worse. They're preparing to take steps like US banks have done to limit their risk. Also, the government has enacted a new regulation that no company can lay off more than 20 people without getting permission from the labor bureau. Nokia wants to sack 10k. Link to comment
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