China housing prices to fall 50%?

[Guest Tony n Terrific]

PICC Property & Casualty Co. said Chinese housing prices may drop as much as 50 percent over the next few years.

 

http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.ph...;extra=page%3D1

[GZBILL]

PICC Property & Casualty Co. said Chinese housing prices may drop as much as 50 percent over the next few years.

 

http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.ph...;extra=page%3D1

 

I woudn't be surprised if prices fall. I would be surprised if it were 50% across the board.

[rogerluli]

PICC Property & Casualty Co. said Chinese housing prices may drop as much as 50 percent over the next few years.

 

http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.ph...;extra=page%3D1

 

Sep 28 2008, 08:48 AM Post #21|

 

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008...ent_7066745.htm

 

This article forecasts housing price drops of up to 50% over the next 10 years... for China's way overpriced large and mid-size cities...

Sure glad we bought in small, cheap places...

 

I've also seen a survey that over the next year only 19% of Chinese are planning on buying a house...The lowest level since 1999...Of course 19% of 1.3 billion is only around 250 million...

 

I think there's no question that times are going to get tougher in the property market and for those of you sitting on the fence to buy a place you'll want to keep an eye out and your powder dry...

Edited October 3, 2008 by rogerluli (see edit history)

[JimS.]

PICC Property & Casualty Co. said Chinese housing prices may drop as much as 50 percent over the next few years.

 

http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.ph...;extra=page%3D1

 

Sep 28 2008, 08:48 AM Post #21|

 

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008...ent_7066745.htm

 

This article forecasts housing price drops of up to 50% over the next 10 years... for China's way overpriced large and mid-size cities...

Sure glad we bought in small, cheap places...

 

I've also seen a survey that over the next year only 19% of Chinese are planning on buying a house...The lowest level since 1999...Of course 19% of 1.3 billion is only around 250 million...

 

I think there's no question that times are going to get tougher in the property market and for those of you sitting on the fence to buy a place you'll want to keep an eye out and your powder dry...

This will work out well for me as I was planning on buying some small building in the next few years.

[Guest ShaQuaNew]

PICC Property & Casualty Co. said Chinese housing prices may drop as much as 50 percent over the next few years.

 

http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.ph...;extra=page%3D1

 

Prices are not likely to change much in China. There is still a hot market here in real estate, that is not as affected as the US market. Most Chinese pay cash for their homes rather than getting a loan. That too is not likely to change.

[tsap seui]

It seems to my largely uninformed mind on Chinese real estate that the real estate market there is relative to the city and it's location in the country. It's seems fairly easily to be predictable, the large southern cities are the ones who firstly appreciate like crazy, then falter, and fall....the same as in the larger urban areas in america.

 

Late last year, as the prices started to fall in the south the small northern city the lil' rabbit is in started to take off (they had had mild increases but had stayed pretty much flat)...like crazy. They are still rising. The inner city is astronomical, completely nuts huge prices for old worn out homes. The real increases started in August and seemed to be jumping 10% per month.

 

We bought a home on the outskirts of the main city. The air is clear, not much traffic compared to what is 15 minutes away, and there are nice open spaces...and...everything is clean.

 

It seems like we bought at a fairly good time. The price of the same home is 10% more now and headed up as the construction is grinding down on this first phase of the developers project.

 

I don't pretend to know ANYTHING about Chinese real estate, or, the culture for that matter, but, I well understand supply and demand. The small city we will be in will top out also, how could it not? The home buyer supply will top out and the latter projects will lose buyers and prices will drop for awhile. B)

 

My hope is our belated purchase, as we awaited the 10 months of DOS bullshit, will have been soon enough that any falls in the market will only come down to what we paid, or slightly above. It'll just do whatever it does. We have no mortgage...I got mop slapped for bringing up that "evil" word. Shows my lack of eastern culture, huh? I waited to buy in China as I had totally renovated a "surprise" home for the lil' rabbit's arrival in america, and as you do when you are in AP blue slip land, you have this feeling that the DOS will, maybe, give you a visa. At least the lil' rabbit never knew about "her" american home and was spared that hurt, on top of the agony of waiting 10 months for a denial.

 

What I find very amusing is the inner city houses in our city are selling for 150,000-200,000rmb higher for those worn out, noisy, smog ridden, and much smaller homes than the homes, in our area...only 15 minutes away. It seems to me and from my talks with the lil' rabbit herself, that the Chinese very much value being less than a 15 minute NASCAR taxi (1/2 hour bus) ride from the center of the city. Maybe it's the 15rmb for the taxi. Try driving 15 minutes in the Washington, DC metropolitan area and see how far you get. B)

 

The lil' rabbit actually calls our home, "the long house", as in, long go to. At first she was sorta scared of leaving what she had grown up in all her life, but, she became fascinated with the clear air, very low noise, and open spaces. All her friends and family asked her the same question...why would you move so far out? One trip by her friends and family and as they saw the place and area for the first time, they everyone, quickly said, "Oh, now I see."

 

Will the Chinese housing prices drop 50%? Maybe in some southern urban areas, they had drastically and unrealistically appreaciated in value from the get go, just like in the Washington/Baltimore/Northern Virginia area, but I would bet 10 yankee greenbacks they won't drop 50%.

 

Are the homes in this economic mess our leaders handed the population in america gonna drop 50%? I hope not for americans, but I'd put them 10 yankee greenbacks down that they will drop 30% in those urban areas like Washington, DC and SoCal before they bottom. Heck, Jimmy J. stated that his real estate taxes had already dropped, without his even asking. Think that was from another Chinese "incentive" loan to the american, or in particular, the state of California?

 

Real estate prices always rise like a biplane, falter when the prop can no longer supply the demand, level out, and then take off again.Let's hope the level out the falter and level out period isn't too steep, or too long...here, and in China.

 

tsap seui

[Guest lilac6451]

Dont listen to media. A two_bed, one bath flat around the fourth ring in Beijing costs still anything around 500,000 Chinese Yuan, higher than that of five years ago, which was 320,000.

[Guest Mike and Lily]

Dont listen to media. A two_bed, one bath flat around the fourth ring in Beijing costs still anything around 500,000 Chinese Yuan, higher than that of five years ago, which was 320,000.

 

I agree. The Chinese economy is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. The typical Chinese pays cash for his home. The same type of market fluctuations that you have here based on mortgage rates and loan availability will not be present in the Chinese real estate market. The Chinese market is highly susceptible to overbuilding however.

[tsap seui]

Dont listen to media. A two_bed, one bath flat around the fourth ring in Beijing costs still anything around 500,000 Chinese Yuan, higher than that of five years ago, which was 320,000.

 

I agree. The Chinese economy is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. The typical Chinese pays cash for his home. The same type of market fluctuations that you have here based on mortgage rates and loan availability will not be present in the Chinese real estate market. The Chinese market is highly susceptible to overbuilding however.

 

Amen..... to you both.

 

My mere mention of a home mortgage to the lil' rabbit had her sqawking a hundred miles and hour in Chinese, in my ear. I knew I had met a boundary of our east and west relationship. A very happy, and SECURE one, I must add.

 

After she translated the word mortgage I think her words were, "NO BANK!!!!....No have EVERY money, NO BUY HOUSE." Okay, lil' rabbit, I will gladly give up that western sin.

 

tsap seui

[GZBILL]

Dont listen to media. A two_bed, one bath flat around the fourth ring in Beijing costs still anything around 500,000 Chinese Yuan, higher than that of five years ago, which was 320,000.

 

Not today it doesn't.

 

Average price on fourth ring is 10k RMB per m2. Not many two bedroom houses that are 50 m2.

[GZBILL]

PICC Property & Casualty Co. said Chinese housing prices may drop as much as 50 percent over the next few years.

 

http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.ph...;extra=page%3D1

 

Prices are not likely to change much in China. There is still a hot market here in real estate, that is not as affected as the US market. Most Chinese pay cash for their homes rather than getting a loan. That too is not likely to change.

 

Actually it is changing.

 

Bank mortgage applications are up over every previous year as a percentage of new home buyers.

 

Already property prices are fluctuating. Those in the more in-demand locations are either remainig stable or rising at a slower pace while those further away from the city center and in areas that are not "hot" are starting to drop.

 

Shenzhen market is already feeling the pain.

[rogerluli]

Dont listen to media. A two_bed, one bath flat around the fourth ring in Beijing costs still anything around 500,000 Chinese Yuan, higher than that of five years ago, which was 320,000.

 

Not today it doesn't.

 

Average price on fourth ring is 10k RMB per m2. Not many two bedroom houses that are 50 m2.

 

I thought that was too cheap except maybe for an old house...

 

Bill have you bailed out on any of your 7 "first houses" as a result of anticipated price drops???

[Guest ShaQuaNew]

Dont listen to media. A two_bed, one bath flat around the fourth ring in Beijing costs still anything around 500,000 Chinese Yuan, higher than that of five years ago, which was 320,000.

 

Not today it doesn't.

 

Average price on fourth ring is 10k RMB per m2. Not many two bedroom houses that are 50 m2.

 

If you want to live in a nicer gated community in Nanjing, you will pay about 10K per M2. Average is around 8K.

[GZBILL]

Dont listen to media. A two_bed, one bath flat around the fourth ring in Beijing costs still anything around 500,000 Chinese Yuan, higher than that of five years ago, which was 320,000.

 

Not today it doesn't.

 

Average price on fourth ring is 10k RMB per m2. Not many two bedroom houses that are 50 m2.

 

I thought that was too cheap except maybe for an old house...

 

Bill have you bailed out on any of your 7 "first houses" as a result of anticipated price drops???

 

No plans to drop any yet. In fact, with the move to Beijing two months ago I'm looking to pick up another.

 

Actually, the rental market is good as long as you have the right tenant base. At first it can be tough with a lot of small details intruding on your non-landlord life, but once things get settled and you get a system going it really isn't a hassle at all.

 

In my opinion, the key to getting the best value when buying a house is to find one in an area appealing to the majority of people such as in residential districts adjacent to the CBD (Central Business District). I think property values in these areas could drop, but not be effected by any downturn as badly as those in the middle-class fringe areas.

 

But ... I could be wrong and ultimately take a bath.

[GZBILL]

Dont listen to media. A two_bed, one bath flat around the fourth ring in Beijing costs still anything around 500,000 Chinese Yuan, higher than that of five years ago, which was 320,000.

 

Not today it doesn't.

 

Average price on fourth ring is 10k RMB per m2. Not many two bedroom houses that are 50 m2.

 

If you want to live in a nicer gated community in Nanjing, you will pay about 10K per M2. Average is around 8K.

 

 

I hear that in Beijing they are going to start construction of the tenth ring road. It'll include Nanjing, they say.