IMBRA effect on USCIS approvals

[david_dawei]

It seems that the IMBRA delays really stopped around July... what was taking some centers about 5 months to process has dropped back down to about the same as pre-IMBRA; even VSC is back to less than a month to approve a K1.

 

It is also apparent that CR1s continue to face delays in 2006 at both ends of USCIS and GUZ..

 

In the second graph below (x=months; y=days), you can see that as IMBRA pressure on K1 (and K3) timelines were relaxing, the CR1s were climbing in time for USCIS approval...

 

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20Sub-P2.jpg

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20Sub-P2%202006.jpg

Edited November 24, 2006 by DavidZixuan (see edit history)

[david_dawei]

Two more graph.. CFL NVC-P4 and Interviews in 2006.

 

I would of thought that IMBRA, stopping up petitions from getting to the consulate would show the petitions not affected by IMBRA to be processing faster (due to less competition)... but we see from March 2006 onward an increase in overall times (Sub-Int graph), when fewer petitions were getting to the consulate.

 

Also interesting to note the general similarity between post-NVC graph and Overall time.. not surprising; GUZ is the bulk of the time.

 

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20NVC-P4%202006.jpg

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20Interviews%202006.jpg

Edited November 23, 2006 by DavidZixuan (see edit history)

[Guest ShaQuaNew]

It seems that the IMBRA delays really stopped around July... what was taking some centers about 5 months to process has dropped back down to about the same as pre-IMBRA; even VSC is back to less than a month to approve a K1.

 

It is also apparent that CR1s continue to face delays in 2006 at both ends of USCIS and GUZ..

 

In the first graph below (x=months; y=days), you can see that as IMBRA pressure on K1 (and K3) timelines were relaxing, the CR1s were climbing in time for USCIS approval...

 

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20Sub-P2.jpg

Good stuff David. I'm sure my brain damage is affecting me, but perhaps you could add a legend to your charts that explain the metrics e.g., X and Y axis; i.e. days, on "Y" Number of visas, etc. It would help from having to stare at it so long after eating turkey. BTW, HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

[Randy W]

Is the 'X' the month of submission? Are these averages of those reported?

[david_dawei]

Just updated the axis... the months do represent an average of the cases for that month.. I excluded a few outliers as well.

[RLS]

I have a degree in English, but when it comes to anything related to math, graphs, or anything analytical, I am a dunce. Anyway, I'm still trying to figure it out and thanks David for the work.

[david_dawei]

Here's a surprising find...

 

historically, we've always said that P4s are mostly issued at the start and end of a month.. This was true for 2005... but 2006 shows a different story:

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20P4%20by%20day.jpg

Edited November 23, 2006 by DavidZixuan (see edit history)

[LeeFisher3]

David, just currious do we have much info on the post IMBRA K-1 processing time or are we just now staring to see them in the mix. I figure with 4-5 months of K-1's getting released we will see some time lag as GZ attempts to catch up with the extra workload.

[david_dawei]

The next few months will show us alot more.

 

One issue I see is that those who left NVC prior to June already have had an interview (maybe an exception or two); then there is a gap until Aug with a pile up in the next few months.

 

I was interested to see what effect IMBRA had some people already in the process.. but that means those at NVC from March-June; Most after this time at NVC don't even have P3 (some exceptions).. since that is the gap, I've got no data and that is my answer... It's caused a gap and pile up.. duh...

 

Those who left NVC in Aug-Sept statistically could get their P3s this month.. but I think we'll see more over the next two months...

[Guest ShaQuaNew]

Here's a surprising find...

 

historically, we've always said that P4s are mostly issued at the start and end of a month.. This was true for 2005... but 2006 shows a different story:

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20P4%20by%20day.jpg

 

After staring at your charts cross-eyed for a few minutes, here's what I'm getting from it:

 

 

1. In 2005, P-4s were issued predominately at either the beginning, or the end of the month.

 

2. In 2006, P-4s are showing a trend of being more evenly issued throughout the month.

 

If this data is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, it would indicate that GUZ is becoming more efficient with it's issuance of P-4s. Is GUZ efficiency increasing in other areas also, like quicker turnaround of P-3 issuance and / or when they pick up their mail from DHL?

[stacato]

Here's a surprising find...

 

historically, we've always said that P4s are mostly issued at the start and end of a month.. This was true for 2005... but 2006 shows a different story:

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20P4%20by%20day.jpg

 

After staring at your charts cross-eyed for a few minutes, here's what I'm getting from it:

 

 

1. In 2005, P-4s were issued predominately at either the beginning, or the end of the month.

 

2. In 2006, P-4s are showing a trend of being more evenly issued throughout the month.

 

If this data is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, it would indicate that GUZ is becoming more efficient with it's issuance of P-4s. Is GUZ efficiency increasing in other areas also, like quicker turnaround of P-3 issuance and / or when they pick up their mail from DHL?

 

They are taking longer to pick up the petitions from DHL lately. Some of the packages from early September are still there. I think we are going into a serious bottleneck now

[Guest ShaQuaNew]

They are taking longer to pick up the petitions from DHL lately. Some of the packages from early September are still there. I think we are going into a serious bottleneck now

 

David, what are the statistics for the average number of days elapsed from NVC release to GUZ (hardcopy letter date) and the time a P3 is physically received by the beneficiary? Is that data available?

[david_dawei]

Here's a graph for P2-P3 ; and P2-P4 times. Average of cases per month. (Only K cases since P3 for CR1 is at NVC)

 

2006 YTD: K cases

P2-P3 Average: 77 days

P2-P4 Average: 137 days

 

Both trend similarly as would be expected since the only difference between them is really P3-P4 times which is probably the most stable period (meaning it cannot afford to get too fast anyway since people need time to do medicals, etc).

 

The one dip in P2-P3 is legit.. this was a fair number of cases all getting fast P3s. I think the hump we see at the end of year might be an annual occurrence which we have to watch (meaning, each end of year, do they let cases backup in order to complete other tasks??).

 

The P2-P4 had one dip, but this is a single case.. So this one case drives that one month... all this means is that this person got a very fast P4 letter.

 

There is a general decline in times from last year (July) to this one. The last person to get a P4 was quite fast (P2 was approved in Aug)... If we get any more P3s this month, then we're still within reasonable trend (since on average some have to come above and below average) .. but if we don't then we'll see these lines turn upward.

 

One thing this shows is that from March - Aug, IMBRA's distruption to NVC as the paper shuffler between service centers and consulates, did not seem to distrupt cases not affected by IMBRA and just passing through NVC.

 

BUT... this month is a turning point as we see some delays starting...

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20P2-P3-P4%202006.jpg

Edited November 24, 2006 by DavidZixuan (see edit history)

[david_dawei]

Just to give some attention to CR1s..

 

Here is a graph of NVC Out - P4.

 

2006:

YTD Avg: 101 days

6 month Avg: 83 days

 

Obviously a dramatic reduction since last year...

 

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20CR1%20P4.jpg

[david_dawei]

it would indicate that GUZ is becoming more efficient with it's issuance of P-4s. Is GUZ efficiency increasing in other areas also, like quicker turnaround of P-3 issuance and / or when they pick up their mail from DHL?

 

EFFICIENCY ISSUE?

 

I was looking at this last night.. wonder if you were looking over my shoulder..

 

I looked at the P4 distributions for the first six months and it's the same.. so I think that there was an internal decision in terms of 'work load' priorities... In order to check this idea, I looked at interviews by weekday for 2005 and 2006 as well.. and one does see a change in that too. So it's possible that they simply changed their work flow... not sure I'd say whether it was more efficient or not, but certain intentional.

 

Here's a set of graphs of P4 by weekday and Interviews by weekday; 2005 - 2006

 

The first one of each set just shows over all counts.. so you can see that 2005 had more (so it is higher in number, and you can see the relative changes... so I created a graph of the days as a percent of the total and you can see which days are more more dedicated to it).

 

Looking at the P4 graphs: it's not obvious how much each day was impacted until you look at the % graph. Meaning, The first P4 graph doesn't really show clearly the importance of days as compared to the previous year.

 

*** It should be realized that the P4 dates we usually get are 'received by the beneficiary'... so some "days" substraction would have to occur to fully pinpoint which days the consulate was possibly doing this work.. but from a relative point of view, we see a definite change from 2005 - 2006 ***

 

For the interviews, we can pinpoint to the day.. so those will mean specific days occurring by consulate workday. We can see that in 2006, interviews shifted to more of a 'bell curve'..

 

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20P4%20by%20weekday.jpg

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20P4%20by%20weekday%20pct.jpg

 

 

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20Int%20by%20weekday.jpg

http://www.candleforlove.com/FAQ/Timelines/Graphs/CFL%20Int%20by%20weekday%20pct.jpg