Interview/P3 Lists for the Month of November 2005

[Timeline]

Upcoming Interview & P4/Interview Projection Tables for November 2005.

 

For the Upcoming Interview Table, I will keep the previous month, the current month, any future month(s) interviews on the table. Also, any previous outstanding cases will remain.

 

........Total.....Down.....ToGo

---.....-----.....----.....----

OCT......15........13........2

NOV......24........18........6

DEC.......9.........0........9

 

 

Some thoughts:

 

It appears the rumored "speed up" at the consulate has finally occured. This is welcome news to all. The time period from P3 to P4 to interview date is quickly decreasing. I hope it will decrease more in the coming months.

 

However, one downside to this "speed up" in scheduling is the "2nd namecheck" process. The old time frame from P3 to interview was 4 - 6 months. This time permitted a wide variance in the "2nd namecheck" completion (2 - 8 weeks) without delaying the P4/Interview date. Only in extreme cases was the P4/Interview date delayed.

 

Now, I think any member whose "2nd namecheck" completion takes longer than 4 weeks (my guess), might expect to experience a delay in their P4/Interview dates. Not sure about this, only my opinion.

 

Alex we hope to hear good news soon.

esun41 congratulations on the successful overcome.

notrevorich congratulations on the successful overcome.

christer and EdG we hope for eventual success.

Good luck to all this month !!!

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

..---------------------------------- Upcoming Interview Date Table ------------------------------------"

..CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type.Pass.USC..Comments

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".Alex..................../../....../../.....12/08/04................K1...No........Pending

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".esun41................04/18/05..08/03/05...09/27/05...162....107...K1...Yes..Yes..Overcome - 11/02/05

".christer..............12/01/04..08/04/05...09/29/05...302....246...K1...No........Pending

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".Alm...................06/07/05..09/01/05...10/11/05...126.....86...K1...Yes..Yes...

".bubbafred10...........05/27/05..08/30/05...10/13/05...139.....95...CR1..Yes........

".rthomas...............04/27/05..09/02/05...10/13/05...169....128...K1...Yes..Yes..rthomas917

".TommyLovesCindy.......05/01/05..09/01/05...10/17/05...169....123...K3.............P3, P4 estimate

".Littleturtle..........02/23/05..09/02/05...10/17/05...236....191...K3...Yes.......2nd Name Check done

".mrjones...............06/06/05..08/29/05...10/19/05...135.....84...K1...Yes..Yes...

".EdG...................06/08/05..08/31/05...10/19/05...133.....84...CR1..No........Pending

".ed_and_ying...........06/29/05..08/30/05...10/20/05...113.....62...K1...Yes..Yes...

".ateam.................04/25/05..08/31/05...10/20/05...178....128...DCF..Yes..Yes..CR1

".amerchin..............06/10/05..08/31/05...10/20/05...132.....82...K1...Yes..No....

".lymeboy...............06/22/05..09/01/05...10/27/05...127.....71...K1...Yes..No...P4 estimate

".rrylee................05/29/05..08/29/05...10/29/05...153.....92...K1...Yes........

".RJZ+JCW...............05/24/05..08/29/05...10/31/05...160.....97...K1...Yes..Yes...

".ChristinaMiao.........06/01/05..09/01/05...10/31/05...152.....92...K3.............P3, P4, IV estimate

".nick45................03/15/05..09/08/05...10/31/05...230....177...CR1..Yes..No....

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".jbray.................04/28/05..10/02/05...11/02/05...188....157...DCF..Yes.......CR1

".kaigaorui.............07/18/05..09/28/05...11/07/05...112.....72...K1...Yes..Yes..P3 mix-up by GZ

".sailorboy.............06/15/05..09/30/05...11/07/05...145....107...K3...Yes..Yes..Overcome - 11/14/05

".singularis67..........09/09/05..10/13/05...11/07/05....59.....34...K3...Yes........

".fly...................09/22/05..10/19/05...11/07/05....46.....27...K1...Yes..No....

".notrevorich...........09/16/05..10/20/05...11/07/05....52.....34...K1...Yes..Yes..Overcome - 11/17/05

".HTW & QZ..............07/18/05..09/29/05...11/08/05...113.....73...CR1.............

".Meidon................08/18/05..10/12/05...11/14/05....88.....55...K1...Yes..No....

".m-coon................08/26/05..10/20/05...11/14/05....80.....55...K3...Yes..No....

".Jocelyn...............04/20/05..10/01/05...11/15/05...209....164...DCF..Yes........

".tenfootalbino.........05/02/05..10/12/05...11/15/05...197....163...CR1..Yes..Yes..P4 estimate

".johnkinsale...........09/08/05..10/19/05...11/15/05....68.....41...K1...Yes........

".Dogderf...............06/10/05..10/17/05...11/17/05...160....129...K1...Yes..No....

".raineedaze............07/21/05..11/12/05...11/17/05...119....114...K3...Yes..No...P4 estimate

".mlspyl................06/04/05..09/28/05...11/21/05...170....116...CR1..Yes..Yes...

".Mengxin...............06/04/05..10/01/05...11/21/05...170....119...CR1..Yes..No....

".Randy_W...............06/24/05..10/01/05...11/22/05...151.....99...K1...Yes..No....

".Joanne................07/22/05..10/02/05...11/22/05...123.....72...K3...Yes..No...IR1

".Tian9426..............07/22/05..10/03/05...11/22/05...123.....73...K1..............

".Jenn..................09/06/05..10/18/05...11/22/05....77.....42...K1...Yes..Yes...

".DW1...................06/11/05..09/29/05...11/28/05...170....110...CR1............P3 estimate

".bnolsen...............07/16/05..09/29/05...11/29/05...136.....75...K1.............P4 estimate

".Tina_&_Jarrod.........07/08/05..10/19/05...11/29/05...144....103...CR1.............

".Linbar................04/12/05..09/29/05...11/30/05...232....170...CR1.............

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

".BillV_8-16-2004.......08/23/05..11/02/05...12/01/05...100.....71...K3.............CR1, P3 mix up

".castaway109...........07/16/05..11/02/05...12/05/05...142....109...???............P3, P4 estimate

".Carl..................07/21/05..11/02/05...12/05/05...137....104...CR1.............

".shyaushu..............08/18/05..11/15/05...12/07/05...111.....89...CR1.............

".markndannie...........07/16/05..11/02/05...12/12/05...149....109...CR1.............

".diver1959.............09/23/05..11/05/05...12/20/05....88.....43...K1..............

".Brucetb...............07/18/05..11/05/05...12/21/05...156....110...CR1.............

".Jay...................07/18/05..11/07/05...12/21/05...156....112...CR1.............

".hlguan................08/13/05..11/03/05...12/30/05...139.....82...K1..............

..--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----.----.---..-------------------"

 

Nooneufo & Mark

Edited November 23, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history)

[Timeline]

Historical Average Tables

 

 

Some Thoughts:

 

I discard "outlayers" when calculating the averages. This is the reason why the number of interviews used to calculate the average for a particular month might be less than the actual number of interviews for that month. Outlayers are cases that the "P3 to P4" number of days are either too short or too long. A few outlayers can abnormally skew the average either way.

 

The "P3 to P4" time is finally displaying a "concrete downward trend. The "P4 to Interview" time might decrease if the consulate sends the P4 letters in the first week of the month instead of the previous week. Also, if they continue with a "two shot salvo", beginning and mid-month this will decrease the time from P4 to actual interview date.

 

 

 

 

..................................Historical Average from P3 - P4 - IV (Interview Date)

..................................-----------------------------------------------------

.....Month(s).(2005)......#..of...One Month Average (days)...Three Month Average (days)

..---------------------...Inter...-------------------------...-------------------------

....One.........Three.....views...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...P4 - P3..IV - P3..IV - P4...Comments

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" January...................32......135......174.......39............................

" February...................9......119......161.......42............................

" March.......JAN - MAR.....23......127......171.......44.......130......171.......41

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" April.......FEB - APR.....13......112......153.......41.......121......164.......43

" May.........MAR - MAY.....16......108......159.......51.......117......163.......46

" June........APR - JUN.....21......111......146.......35.......110......152.......42

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" July........MAY - JUL......1.......98......153.......55............................

" August......JUN - AUG......7......106......156.......50............................

" September...JUL - SEP.....33......109......156.......47.......108......156.......48

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" October.....AUG - OCT.....15.......99......150.......51.......106......154.......48

" November....SEP - NOV.....24.......92......131.......39.......101......146.......45

" December....OCT - DEC......8.......90......130.......40........94......137.......43

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

" K1..........APR - NOV.....85...................................97......140.......43

" K3..........APR - NOV.....29...................................99......142.......43

 

..---------...---------...-----...-------..-------..-------...-------..-------..-------...----------

Edited November 17, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history)

[Timeline]

Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table

Using 3-month averages (OLD method) for calculations

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Some thoughts:

 

The process has improved drastically (getting shorter) in October. Only time and more data points will tell if the process will continue to improve or level out. I have a slightly more agressive prediction formula (using the more recent data), but will not implement this, until I see next month's round of P4s.

 

I have changed the projected P4/Interview date formula due to the following conditions:

 

1. New information (data points)

2. Using a different sampling period (we currently use a three month running average)

 

This formula update has only slightly modified (shortened) the P3 - P4 time periods.

 

I have adjusted the P4 date to reflect, the approximately five working days each month that the P4 letter is actually generated. Based on recent past history, I have chosen the last three days and first two weekdays of the prior month(s) before the month of interview to project the P4 date. For example: for interviews scheduled in November of 2005 the P4 dates are : September 28, 29, 30 and October 3, 4. I hope this method better reflects the Consulate's actual process.

 

I have not changed the projected Interview date only the projected P4 date. The adjusted P4 date should better reflect "actual" P4 dates. A word of caution, if a member is close to the end/beginning of the monthly cycle, then the Prediction can be off by approximately one month !!!

 

Only interviews schedule after September have the adjusted information. And unlike the Consulate, I have projected the Interview date based on earlier P3 date = earlier Interview date. I realize the Consulate fills up the monthly interview dates using a different method, but since I do not have access to this, I will use the "first in", "first out" method.

 

I must update members on the table with new information and add members who are not on the table but now have P3 data. I know there are many more members who should be included on the Prediction Table, so please PM me if you have new information on your case. Thanks !!!

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

..------------------------- Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table ---------------------------

............................................-----Projected-----

............CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type..Comments

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" November..Phnom.................05/04/05..09/30/05...11/14/05...194....149...CR1...Namecheck delay

"...........eeyore................05/09/05..10/03/05...11/23/05...198....147...CR1...Namecheck delay

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" December..Toad..................07/23/05..10/29/05...12/12/05...142.....98...DCF...CR1, Namecheck ?

"...........goneflying2000........07/30/05..11/02/05...12/29/05...152.....95...CR1...Namecheck delay

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" January...critter...............08/19/05..11/28/05...01/05/06...139....101...K3....CR1

"...........ouyyp.................09/03/05..12/02/05...01/25/06...144.....90...??....Namecheck ?

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" February..Chinky................09/06/05..12/28/05...02/06/06...153....113...CR1....

"...........rhour.................09/19/05..12/29/05...02/07/06...141....101...DCF...CR1

"...........wolf190...............07/28/05..12/29/05...02/07/06...194....154...CR1....

"...........usanalyst.............07/28/05..12/29/05...02/07/06...194....154...IR1....

"...........mnmext................09/29/05..01/03/06...02/22/06...146.....96...K1.....

"...........Paula.................09/28/05..01/04/06...02/27/06...152.....98...CR1....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" March.....Chad..................10/17/05..01/30/06...03/01/06...135....105...K3....Namecheck 10/17/05

"...........tlondon...............08/30/05..02/01/06...03/13/06...195....155...CR1....

"...........Homeprincess..........11/07/05..02/03/06...03/22/06...135.....88...K1.....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" April.....bearbear..............09/21/05..02/27/06...04/03/06...194....159...CR1....

"...........Li'sZhangfu...........11/02/05..02/27/06...04/03/06...152....117...CR1...Namecheck 11/02/05

"...........Hanli.................10/03/05..03/01/06...04/13/06...192....149...CR1....

"...........ckhang................10/07/05..03/02/06...04/19/06...194....146...CR1....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

 

 

(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)

Color code for K1/K3/CR1/IR1 P3 or DS-230 at Guangzhou (Top color most accurate)

 

brown.: K1/K3 = P3 received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)

......: CR1 ..= Case received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)

blue..: K1/K3 = P3 sent to Guanghou or received by Guangzhou.

......: CR1 ..= Case forwarded by the NVC to Guangzhou. (IVR automated message from NVC)

green.: K1/K3 = P3 received by CFL member or date on P3 letter.

......: CR1 ..= Case completed by the NVC. (IVR automated message from NVC)

 

Mark

Edited November 23, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history)

[Timeline]

P4/Interview Prediction Table (NEW Times)

 

 

 

..------------------------- Adjusted P4 and Interview Date Prediction Table ---------------------------

............................................-----Projected-----

............CFL_Name.................P3........P4.....Interview..#days..P3-P4..Type..Comments

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" October...Phnom.................05/04/05..09/05/05...10/05/05...155....124...CR1...Namecheck delay

"...........Toad..................07/23/05..09/05/05...10/06/05....75.....44...DCF...CR1, Namecheck ?

"...........eeyore................05/09/05..09/08/05...10/19/05...164....122...CR1...Namecheck delay

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" November..critter...............08/19/05..10/05/05...11/02/05....75.....47...K3....CR1

"...........goneflying2000........07/30/05..10/10/05...11/21/05...115.....72...CR1...Namecheck delay

"...........ouyyp.................09/03/05..10/10/05...11/24/05....82.....37...??....Namecheck ?

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" December..rhour.................09/19/05..11/04/05...12/05/05....77.....46...DCF...CR1

"...........mnmext................09/29/05..11/08/05...12/20/05....82.....40...K1.....

"...........Chad..................10/17/05..11/09/05...12/29/05....73.....23...K3....Namecheck 10/17/05

"...........wolf190...............07/28/05..11/09/05...12/29/05...155....104...CR1....

"...........usanalyst.............07/28/05..11/09/05...12/29/05...155....104...IR1....

"...........Chinky................09/06/05..11/09/05...12/29/05...115.....64...CR1....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" January...Paula.................09/28/05..12/07/05...01/18/06...113.....70...CR1....

"...........Homeprincess..........11/07/05..12/08/05...01/19/06....73.....31...K1.....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" February..tlondon...............08/30/05..01/04/06...02/02/06...157....127...CR1....

"...........bearbear..............09/21/05..01/10/06...02/22/06...155....111...CR1....

"...........Li'sZhangfu...........11/02/05..01/10/06...02/22/06...113.....69...CR1...Namecheck 11/02/05

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

" March.....Hanli.................10/03/05..02/07/06...03/08/06...157....127...CR1....

"...........ckhang................10/07/05..02/08/06...03/13/06...158....124...CR1....

..---------.--------------------..--------..--------..---------..-----..-----..----..------------------"

 

 

Mark

Edited November 23, 2005 by Timeline (see edit history)

[diver1959]

you got me projected for feb.am now scheduled for dec 20.

[Brucetb]

Very good news. My wife is scheduled for an interview on Dec,21.

The timeline was very close.

Brucetb

[mercator]

I wonder if the process takes geography into consideration...

 

Looking at the stuff you put out TIMELINE, it would be interesting to see if the speeds are affected by geographic location of the petitioner, beyond which SC you use. It would make for an interesting statistical analysis. Does someone in Washington or Colorado take longer than someone from California, or New Jersey? Inquiring minds want to know.

[nooneufo]

I wonder if the process takes geography into consideration...

 

Looking at the stuff you put out TIMELINE, it would be interesting to see if the speeds are affected by geographic location of the petitioner, beyond which SC you use.  It would make for an interesting statistical analysis. Does someone in Washington or Colorado take longer than someone from California, or New Jersey?  Inquiring minds want to know.

166996[/snapback]

The basic answer to this is once your information is entered in the computer at GUZ, everyone appears to be treated the same. There is no statistical data that shows that where your are located makes a difference at this point of the process. It does before NVC though.

 

In answer to the question of why it seems that some one is ahead of other, the answer again is once you are at GUZ, it appears that it is first come first served, after the name check is completed, on a weekly P4/interview assignment. You have to look at it on a week by week basis on the P4 dates.

Imagine all the petitions sitting in a stack for each p3 month. Yours is on the top. Then they go through the stack to do an assignment. Now your paper is on the bottom. Now they send the stack out, you might be assigned an interview at the beginning of the month, but because your paper is at the bottom of the stack, it does not get typed up and sent out until the ones before it are sent out. Imagine this stack being shuffled each week as the name check completion, is checked for completion.

 

Some recent data from CFL (sorted by P3 date)

 

P3----------P4---------Interview

 

06/07/05 09/24/05 10/11/05

06/08/05 08/31/05 10/19/05

04/20/05 09/29/05 11/03/05

06/22/05 10/03/05 10/27/05

06/22/05 10/02/05 11/22/05

06/15/05 08/30/05 10/20/05

07/08/05 10/19/05 11/29/05

07/12/05 10/22/05 11/17/05

07/18/05 09/29/05 11/08/05

07/05/05 10/03/05 11/22/05

07/19/05 10/12/05 11/14/05

09/08/05 10/13/05 11/07/05

 

 

Some recent data from 001 (sorted by P3 date)

 

P3----------P4---------Interview

 

06/23/05 10/02/05 11/30/05

06/27/05 10/01/05 11/04/05

06/30/05 10/01/05 11/22/05

06/30/05 10/10/05 11/30/05

07/01/05 10/01/05 11/17/05

07/02/05 10/22/05 11/29/05

07/04/05 10/04/05 11/22/05

07/10/05 10/04/05 11/17/05

07/19/05 10/19/05 11/14/05

07/24/05 10/18/05 11/09/05

07/26/05 10/18/05 11/18/05

07/28/05 10/17/05 11/10/05

07/30/05 10/19/05 11/02/05

08/02/05 10/18/05 11/23/05

08/03/05 10/19/05 11/15/05

08/15/05 10/19/05 11/30/05

08/30/05 10/20/05 11/02/05

08/31/05 10/19/05 11/14/05

09/02/05 10/19/05 11/15/05

09/09/05 10/18/05 11/09/05

09/09/05 10/18/05 11/09/05

09/11/05 10/19/05 11/23/05

09/12/05 10/19/05 11/23/05

09/12/05 10/18/05 11/30/05

Edited November 8, 2005 by nooneufo (see edit history)

[Homeprincess]

Please count me in to the projection table, thanks for your work.

[Timeline]

11/20/05 - 11:00 AM (China Time)

 

Updates:

 

Upcoming Interview Date Table (Post #1)

jbray : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

kaigaorui : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

singularis67 : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

fly : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

notrevorich : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

Meidon : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

m-coon : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

Jocelyn : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

tenfootalbino : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

johnkinsale : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

Dogderf : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

raineedaze : Passed interview. Congratulations !!!

Brucetb : Interview date added.

diver1959 : Interview date added.

Jay : Interview date added.

shyaushu : Interview date added.

Carl : Interview date added.

 

 

P4/Interview Prediction Tables (Posts #3)

Homeprincess : Added

 

 

Updated all the tables. Added a much more aggressive P4/Interview Prediction Table (Post #4) based a small amount of recent CFL P4/Interview data. This data reduces the "P3 to Interview" times significantly. Finally looks like (with a few important exceptions) the process at the Consulate in GZ is rolling steady. More details later. .

I need more P3 dates to add to the Prediction Table or are all the new members drying up ???

 

 

I will continue to check the recent posts for any additonal updates. If I have missed anyone please PM me with the information.

 

 

Thanks

Mark

[HanLi]

Mark,

Thanks so much for your efforts to continue providing such a valuable service to those of us looking for the glimmers of hope....

[Randy W]

Mark,

Thanks so much for your efforts to continue providing such a valuable service to those of us looking for the glimmers of hope....

170291[/snapback]

 

 

Yes - I've kept an eye on the table for a long time - only 1 day off on mine.

 

Good luck to you, Hank

[HanLi]

Mark,

Thanks so much for your efforts to continue providing such a valuable service to those of us looking for the glimmers of hope....

170291[/snapback]

 

 

Yes - I've kept an eye on the table for a long time - only 1 day off on mine.

 

Good luck to you, Hank

170294[/snapback]

Randy.... thanks, but it seems I got caught in Customs Hold Hell..... been there for a month........

[markndannie]

Thanks timeline for your hard work on this. Just to update you our interview is the 12th of dec.

mark

[david_dawei]

Nooneufo and Mark,

 

wanted to make sure we had the recent blue slips.. so we can continue to get some tracking of these issues..

 

Christer ?third party

Esun41 ?third party ; passed

EdG - confusing answers ?

Sitenbagsrus ?sent too much money?

Notrevorich ?yellow slipped; passed

Sailorboy ?proof of vacation; passed

Edited November 22, 2005 by DavidZixuan (see edit history)