Guest ShaQuaNew Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 After observing a whole bunch of timelines, I keep reverting to my very first observations. It seems that in most every case, and yes...I know that there are many exceptions...........that interviews are scheduled at or about one year. It just makes me think that they have a filing system in Guz that is somehow using this methodology. I picture someone opening each file and looking for the original post date and placing it in another file that will not be touched again until the appropriate month..... Anyone else notice this? Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 Not really... it's hard to compare timelines without be cognizant of the visa type and visa center, both which affect processing times, in another thread I once wrote my best guess at these times... Nobody will question whether Vermont is faster than all the rest; and that Nebraska is slowest. And the years of work of a few who oversee the projections have establish what to expect for GUZ processing times. I recall that it appears that everyone is treated basically the same (in terms of processing time) once they get to GUZ.. The variables appear to be:1) What is your visa type2) Which visa center did you apply at3) Any delay due to first name check (in US)4) Any extended delay due to customs5) Any delay in receiving and returning the P3s6) Any delay in second name check (consulate) But it does seem that if someone gets excessively delayed, they can submit a request for expedited handling... Link to comment
Guest ShaQuaNew Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 (edited) ... it's hard to compare timelines without be cognizant of the visa type and visa center, both which affect processing times, in another thread I once wrote my best guess at these times...138780[/snapback]...indeed, while Vermont seems to get applications in and out faster than other centers, by and large the vast majority of timelines I've seen can be reduced to: Original File Date ...and Visa in hand date. This time is approximately equal to one year. While where one files plays a little role in how quickly the Visa gets into your hand, the vast majority appear finish at or about one year..... I'm speaking primarily of K-1, Finace Visa types. Additionally, I'm not attempting to discount the vast number of variables here. I'm speaking only for the ideal situation, where everthing goes though as planned, and all documents are returned promptly Edited July 20, 2005 by fitnlivly (see edit history) Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 I just looked at a number of timeslines and I just don't get that impression. Many are 9-11 months; Lee for example will be over a year. I would only venture to say a year is average.. but we have more precise numbers by visa center and visa type, in my opinion. Link to comment
Guest ShaQuaNew Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 I just looked at a number of timeslines and I just don't get that impression. Many are 9-11 months; Lee for example will be over a year. I would only venture to say a year is average.. but we have more precise numbers by visa center and visa type, in my opinion.138786[/snapback]...my statement was not intended to be scientific, but a general observation. Again, the timelines I've viewed show the trend that I've already mentioned......now, that's my opinion..... Link to comment
frank1538 Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 What VSC gives, GZ takes away. I agree there are exceptions and VSC K-1 petitions may move slightly faster to conclusion, but a one year wait (historically speaking) seems about right for the majority of petitioners using a service center elsewhere. I haven't done a detailed comparison, but I'll bet there is even some slippage with VSC. When I was filing for Jingwen there was at least a 5 month differential between VSC and TSC, but this differential had significantly shrunk such that VSC petitions yielded a visa maybe one or two months more quickly. Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 I just looked at a number of timeslines and I just don't get that impression. Many are 9-11 months; Lee for example will be over a year. I would only venture to say a year is average.. but we have more precise numbers by visa center and visa type, in my opinion.138786[/snapback]...my statement was not intended to be scientific, but a general observation. Again, the timelines I've viewed show the trend that I've already mentioned......now, that's my opinion..... 138791[/snapback]Are these recent ? I was talking with another member about a month ago.. we were discussing the idea of doing something offsite to allow people to enter their timelines and then people could sort by various ways. It is clear that timelines are extremely useful and could be used in a searchable and sorting means. Link to comment
Guest ShaQuaNew Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 I just looked at a number of timeslines and I just don't get that impression. Many are 9-11 months; Lee for example will be over a year. I would only venture to say a year is average.. but we have more precise numbers by visa center and visa type, in my opinion.138786[/snapback]...my statement was not intended to be scientific, but a general observation. Again, the timelines I've viewed show the trend that I've already mentioned......now, that's my opinion..... 138791[/snapback]Are these recent ? I was talking with another member about a month ago.. we were discussing the idea of doing something offsite to allow people to enter their timelines and then people could sort by various ways. It is clear that timelines are extremely useful and could be used in a searchable and sorting means.138794[/snapback]David, having a comprehensive site that enabled a user to register and enter personal information relating to their timeline would be incredibly useful. I've seen a few attempts at this, but most lack the ability to perform a true controlled time study. The variables are pretty straight-forward it seems and it should not be too hard to develop an input system that could be queried and charted so that it provides historical information. I've seen the Chart on VJ but it fails to provide an easy method for extracting and charting. The timelines you see from many that use the signature block contain a lot additional information that is of personal importance, but of little significance to a statistical study. I would be happy to lend a hand in such an effort should there be an interest.... Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 (edited) David, having a comprehensive site that enabled a user to register and enter personal information relating to their timeline would be incredibly useful. I've seen a few attempts at this, but most lack the ability to perform a true controlled time study. The variables are pretty straight-forward it seems and it should not be too hard to develop an input system that could be queried and charted so that it provides historical information. I've seen the Chart on VJ but it fails to provide an easy method for extracting and charting. The timelines you see from many that use the signature block contain a lot additional information that is of personal importance, but of little significance to a statistical study. I would be happy to lend a hand in such an effort should there be an interest....138797[/snapback]thanks for offering to help. I did request for something to be done on CFL... but there are priorities and time constraints on too few who can program on the system. I'll wait to hear if it's just not going to happen on CFL, and then see if some want to help program and review it, etc. Edited July 20, 2005 by DavidZixuan (see edit history) Link to comment
nooneufo Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 Yes. In my opinion, it is a fact that once your papers arrive at Guangzhou (barring a problem) you are in a que, and your turn comes in a sequence based on your P3 letter date, if it is returned within a set amount of time (unknown). The data collect so far supports this. (The question of CR1's without K3 is still being monitored to find if this is an exception, two verified data points say yes, two say no.) I provide the hard numbers below, make your own conclusion, but mine has always been the same as fitnlivly and frank1538. The variations of time for mail, delays, service centers, and 30 days paid vacation every year evens it all out. If you are very lucky and you get the car built on a Wednesday, your time is shorter. If you get the Friday or Monday car, sorry, no lemon law for you, go to the back of the complaint line. Total number of days from NOA1 to Interview CSC277286311314346369371377392398420461528557 MSC431 NSC295302325332344351359404409 TSC300330336 VSC233245251255256268302315361364364367403 DCF177203223 Unknown211219229235257274304310322344350354357368383389401415420422440462466471542 Link to comment
Guest ShaQuaNew Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 (edited) Yes. In my opinion, it is a fact that once your papers arrive at Guangzhou (barring a problem) you are in a que, and your turn comes in a sequence based on your P3 letter date, if it is returned within a set amount of time (unknown). The data collect so far supports this. (The question of CR1's without K3 is still being monitored to find if this is an exception, two verified data points say yes, two say no.) I provide the hard numbers below, make your own conclusion, but mine has always been the same as fitnlivly and frank1538. The variations of time for mail, delays, service centers, and 30 days paid vacation every year evens it all out. If you are very lucky and you get the car built on a Wednesday, your time is shorter. If you get the Friday or Monday car, sorry, no lemon law for you, go to the back of the complaint line. Total number of days from NOA1 to Interview 138808[/snapback]That's excellent....the raw numbers show compelling evidence indeed. What years were they gathered? I'm assuming all are from 2004 and 2005, meaning recent history. And, where did you get them? Edited...and added..... Based on those numbers: Average Number of Days from NOA1 to InterviewCSC = 386NSC = 347TSC = 322VSC = 306 What VSC gives, GZ takes away. I agree there are exceptions and VSC K-1 petitions may move slightly faster to conclusion, but a one year wait (historically speaking) seems about right for the majority of petitioners using a service center elsewhere. I haven't done a detailed comparison, but I'll bet there is even some slippage with VSC. When I was filing for Jingwen there was at least a 5 month differential between VSC and TSC, but this differential had significantly shrunk such that VSC petitions yielded a visa maybe one or two months more quickly. Agreed....I'm seeing a little flex in the variables, but that's it....just a little.... Edited July 20, 2005 by fitnlivly (see edit history) Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 I assume these points are more recent to oldest in each list.. and would agree with the idea that it's talking less time than a year ago. Interest, when my SO went to pickup her translated docs today from the notary office, the man said to her that visas to US are getting easier.. not sure if the translation should of been faster or not.. but he felt compelled to make a statement. Link to comment
frank1538 Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 ...having a comprehensive site that enabled a user to register and enter personal information relating to their timeline would be incredibly useful. I've seen a few attempts at this, but most lack the ability to perform a true controlled time study. The variables are pretty straight-forward it seems and it should not be too hard to develop an input system that could be queried and charted so that it provides historical information. I've seen the Chart on VJ but it fails to provide an easy method for extracting and charting. The timelines you see from many that use the signature block contain a lot additional information that is of personal importance, but of little significance to a statistical study. I would be happy to lend a hand in such an effort should there be an interest....138797[/snapback]AAC has good data in their database. Here's another: http://www.marriagebasedvisas.org/visa/k-1/index.php ... and yet another: http://www.k1k3.com/list.php Link to comment
david_dawei Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 thanks frank.. I didn't have the marriage based visa org one... but had heard of it... I added it to the FAQ. Here is the list of places to find timeline info: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------(Edited 20 July 2005) Q.2.4 Where can I see timelines on the internet? A.2.4.1 Visa Journeyhttp://www.visajourney.com/timeline/ Marriage Based Visashttp://www.marriagebasedvisas.org/visa/k-1/index.php K1K3http://www.k1k3.com/list.php K1 Visahttp://www.davehollis.com/k1/list.php A.2.4.2 001 websiteK-# Timeline: http://001family.001.bank.cn/timeline/K3.aspWaiting for P3 timeline: http://001family.001.bank.cn/timeline/P3.aspWaiting for P4 timeline: http://001family.001.bank.cn/timeline/P4.aspInterview Dates: http://001family.001.bank.cn/timeline/interviews.asp Link to comment
Tian9426 Posted July 20, 2005 Report Share Posted July 20, 2005 Try 001.cn and copy them in Excel for those waiting P2 P3 P4 and Interview. Link to comment
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