Anyone get their P4 lately?

[eeyore]

Still waiting on p4, still no word on name check.

[Luo_Bin_&_Jialu]

I was informed that the true date to watch is when the package arrived at GZ. This does not make sense as far as the CFL historical data, but this is what I was told by one of our most esteemed govt employees at DOS. They went on to say that the wait is about 9 months from the arrival at GZ. He would not elaborate on if this was the date it was sent electronically to GZ, when it got "customs delay" to GZ, or when GZ actually picked it up...

 

I kind of like our 150 day average from P3 to Interview...

[nooneufo]

We have about 20 people who provided the date of the package arriving at Guangzhou, and most of them report getting a P3 within a week of that date. Only one person do I have a P3 letter date, which is three days after that package arrival. (What arrival means when a person posts it is not clear). But I think based on this the person you spoke to is practically verifing that the real start date is the date on your P3 letter since these numbers are very close to the package arrival. We know that once the package arrive at Guangzhou and is entered into the computer, a P3 quickly follows within a week. At least I would take the information you got to mean this. On the other hand, as has been said a million times here, need more data in peoples timelines and from the lurkers.

 

His statement that it takes nine months from that arrival, is not reflected in the CFL or 001 total number of wait days from P3 to Interview from what I can see. However, if we were to instead average out the longer unusual wait times, for name check delays, then this would probably average out this way. If I were a government worker, I would probably do it this way. But since we are more interested in predicting when one will get a P4 and subsequent Interview, we discard the data that is out of average range, and usually try to verify the reason for why it is out of range. Consistantly, the person is not responding, or they have had a delay.

 

But lets take a look at the real numbers from everyone from April 2004 to now of who has had an Interview. The shortest time was 122 days, and the longest 228 days, with a total average of 175 days. Even if we added an extra month or two, it still would not add up to 270 days. But if I worked there, and fielded calls all day long, I probably would add a month or two as well.

 

Lets also use some data form 001. From July 2004 to now of who has had an Interview. Shortest time was 67 days and longest was 289 days. Average of 187 days. Of course this data is much more suspect and without the checks that are applied to CFL data. However, as a comparison it still averages out. Still close to six months AG.

Edited July 21, 2005 by nooneufo (see edit history)

[rosyanne]

I wouldn't be surprised also if many of the VOs take summer vacations.

 

Broke my heart

 

 

Now, I only want to know when is the next wave of P4s.

[nooneufo]

Now, I only want to know when is the next wave of P4s.

138951[/snapback]

If we took the last two sets of data, which were two weeks of P4s, two weeks of nothing, two weeks of P4's and now this is the second week of nothing, then I would think next week for new wave of P4's with September Interview dates. But I would be only speculating based on a very vague impression, that is really an alternate theory that still fits the data for the old theory, which is nothing has changed, just there is no one whose time has come up who is posting, and this fills the time for everyone to write posts to speculate why their turn has not happened before now, or why there seems to be no P4's, when really there are P4's, just no one is telling.

[nygatl15]

 

Now, I only want to know when is the next wave of P4s.

138951[/snapback]

If we took the last two sets of data, which were two weeks of P4s, two weeks of nothing, two weeks of P4's and now this is the second week of nothing, then I would think next week for new wave of P4's with September Interview dates. But I would be only speculating based on a very vague impression, that is really an alternate theory that still fits the data for the old theory, which is nothing has changed, just there is no one whose time has come up who is posting, and this fills the time for everyone to write posts to speculate why their turn has not happened before now, or why there seems to be no P4's, when really there are P4's, just no one is telling.

138954[/snapback]

Noon,the statement that we maybe in the "2nd week of nothing" is a little comforting to me as I wait my turn...

 

I understand there are quite a few before me that must receive before... Thanks for your anlyasis of the information as much as you have.

 

I guess we all know that EMS usually takes a week... it's not "what Brown can do for you".... This alone will add to the wait. Maybe next week the calls to Guz or DOS will be positive results. Actually knowing will be very good i'm sure.