Interview/P3 List for 4th Week of June 2005

[Guest blsqueaky]

Just curious as to why the cr1 times are longer than the k1 or k3?  Thought that once it was sent by the NVC to Guz that the process was the same??  

Mark, if you can find a definate answer to this question, I would love to hear it. We are IR-1, papers mailed on 5-19, entered into puter, but still they wait for the hard copy. It is sitting in customs still.

[david_dawei]

Just curious as to why the cr1 times are longer than the k1 or k3?  Thought that once it was sent by the NVC to Guz that the process was the same??  

Mark, if you can find a definate answer to this question, I would love to hear it. We are IR-1, papers mailed on 5-19, entered into puter, but still they wait for the hard copy. It is sitting in customs still.

I have read that a VO stated as such at the ACH.. but I'm more interested to see if the data trends support it.

[Timeline]

Modifed the P4/Interview Prediction Table: It is now sorted and displayed by projected interview date and not P3 date as done previously. The months listed on the left side of the table refer to interview date month. I felt this was a better method to present the data since everyone is focused on interview date.

 

Also, for the projected P4/Interview dates I did not account for holidays. For example on the table, I saw an interview date of 12/26/05. Obviously this would not occur. I must get a list of consulate holidays then I will modify the program to handle this.

 

 

Utahmale49 (Rich) and goneflying: Your cases have been added to the Prediction Table

 

blsqueaky (Mark): your P3 date has been slight modified. This brings up an important point.

Those members with CR1 through NVC, for CFL Prediction Table purposes, P3 entered into the computer means the US Consulate in Guangzhou has received the case and has entered this receipt into their computer. Not that the NVC/DOS has electronically entered/ sent the case.

 

markndannie (Mark) and blsqueaky (Mark): I have no statistical data at this time to validate that CR1 wait times from P3 (entered into the computer at Guangzhou) to P4 are longer the comparable K3 wait times. I believe this P3-P4 wait time should be identical. For the time being, I have these two pieces of information to work with:

 

1. My CR1 sample data (which is not a valid sample size yet) shows the 20 day difference between the K1/K3 P3-P4 time. I hope this will decrease as more data is available. Also, I will sample CR1s on 001.

 

2. When I attended the American Citizens Hour at Guangzhou in April, I asked specifically if CR1 wait times at Guangzhou were longer than K3. The VO conducting the session was very careful in answering, but did state "that he thinks CR1 times are longer than K3 times".

 

Until we receive additional data, this is what we will use. However, we expect this to change (decrease) as more CR1 P4s arrive.

 

 

Mark

[david_dawei]

Utahmale49 (Rich) and goneflying: Your cases have been added to the Prediction Table

 

blsqueaky (Mark):  your P3 date has been slight modified.  This brings up an important point.

Those members with CR1 through NVC, for CFL Prediction Table purposes, P3 entered into the computer means the US Consulate in Guangzhou has received the case and has entered this receipt into their computer.  Not that the NVC/DOS has electronically entered/ sent the case.

 

markndannie (Mark) and blsqueaky (Mark):  I have no statistical data at this time to validate that CR1 wait times from P3 (entered into the computer at Guangzhou) to P4 are longer the comparable K3 wait times.  I believe this P3-P4 wait time should be identical.  For the time being, I have these two pieces of information to work with:

 

1.  My CR1 sample data (which is not a valid sample size yet) shows the 20 day difference between the K1/K3 P3-P4 time.  I hope this will decrease as more data is available.  Also, I will sample CR1s on 001.

 

2.  When I attended the American Citizens Hour at Guangzhou in April, I asked specifically if CR1 wait times at Guangzhou were longer than K3.  The VO conducting the session was very careful in answering, but did state "that he thinks CR1 times are longer than K3 times".

 

Until we receive additional data, this is what we will use.  However, I expect the to change (decrease) as more CR1 P4 arrive.

 

 

Mark

I'm a little confused.. so just want to clarify, what is the P3 column?

 

The last I read I thought it was the date that the beneficiary got the P3 , and not when it was sent back nor when GUZ entered it as received from the beneficiary...

[kfman]

Just curious as to why the cr1 times are longer than the k1 or k3?  Thought that once it was sent by the NVC to Guz that the process was the same??  

I was always under the belief that CR-1's receive green card upon entry and dont have to wait for AOS appointment and interview...

 

is this right ?

 

 

[david_dawei]

Just curious as to why the cr1 times are longer than the k1 or k3?  Thought that once it was sent by the NVC to Guz that the process was the same??  

I was always under the belief that CR-1's receive green card upon entry and dont have to wait for AOS appointment and interview...

 

is this right ?

 

 

yes... CR1s get a greencard.. they perform an AOS step with the NVC shuttle stage...

 

But I think they still go to GUZ for an interview... (just to distinguish from an AOS interview, which I think you are referring to)

[kfman]

Just curious as to why the cr1 times are longer than the k1 or k3?  Thought that once it was sent by the NVC to Guz that the process was the same??  

I was always under the belief that CR-1's receive green card upon entry and dont have to wait for AOS appointment and interview...

 

is this right ?

 

 

yes... CR1s get a greencard.. they perform an AOS step with the NVC shuttle stage...

 

But I think they still go to GUZ for an interview... (just to distinguish from an AOS interview, which I think you are referring to)

Yes, in fact...

 

Interview in 6 Days..... wooohoooooooo

 

Did I tell you already? hahahhahaa

Oh, thats 6 days in China, not here.

 

[amerchin]

David

 

Nooneufo wrote the date of my P3 as the date that was on the upper right hand corner of the P3 letter. I hope you're not confused now because I'm extremely confused about GUZ. I emailed them to see if they entered it into their computer. On the 10th they said they didn't receive it and to contact them later. The next week I emailed them again and they said they received and logged it in their computer on the 10th. That's the same day they said they haven't received it. Coincidence or did they finally go searching for our P3 at the White Swan Hotel?

[kfman]

David

 

Nooneufo wrote the date of my P3 as the date that was on the upper right hand corner of the P3 letter. I hope you're not confused now because I'm extremely confused about GUZ. I emailed them to see if they entered it into their computer. On the 10th they said they didn't receive it and to contact them later. The next week I emailed them again and they said they received and logged it in their computer on the 10th. That's the same day they said they haven't received it. Coincidence or did they finally go searching for our P3 at the White Swan Hotel?

Naw.. just governmental workers.

 

 

[david_dawei]

David

 

Nooneufo wrote the date of my P3 as the date that was on the upper right hand corner of the P3 letter. I hope you're not confused now because I'm extremely confused about GUZ. I emailed them to see if they entered it into their computer. On the 10th they said they didn't receive it and to contact them later. The next week I emailed them again and they said they received and logged it in their computer on the 10th. That's the same day they said they haven't received it. Coincidence or did they finally go searching for our P3 at the White Swan Hotel?

I think coincidence or oversight.. Just like calling DOS and getting three people and three answers... The good thing is, it is in their computer !!

 

 

I still vote for the charts to show our P3 entered date.. the date we receive the P3 cannot be easily lined up with everyone here since some take longer times than others to return them.. I know we do this to help adjust to 001, but the computer date of getting back the P3 is an easier indicator to see where we are in upcoming interviews...

[Mengxin]

For CR-1 to get a 10 year greencard, they become IR-1, which requires another GZ interview.

[Timeline]

P4/Interview Date Calculation

 

The prediction for P4/Interview date is based on the P3 date. Nooneufo has color coded the various P3 dates received from CFL members and/or taken this information from their timelines. They are described below by Nooneufo (CR1 stuff modified by me) :

 

If the P3 date listed is not the one in the computer at GZ, let me know it if you want a more accurate prediction. If it is the date you sent the P3, I would add a week or two.

 

(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)

Color code for K1 and K3 sending P3 to Guz(Top color most accurate)

Red---- = P3 entered in Computer

Blue--- = P3 received at GUZ (Mail delivery of P3 papers)

Green-- = P3 sent to GUZ

Pink--- = P3 received from GUZ

Orange- = P3 uncertain

 

Color code for K3/CR1/IR1 sending ds-230 to NVC(Still working on accuracy, need more data)

Brown-- = Case Completed at the NVC

Purple- = Case Complete forwarded by the NVC to GUZ

Gray--- = DS-230 received and entered into the computer by GUZ

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I would like to reduce the number colors on the tables simplify this for viewing purposes. We will retain all the different possible P3 data reported by the members for predicting/historical purposes.

 

First reduce the colors to three; red, blue, and green for K1, K3, and CR1(IR1). They would be:

red...: K1/K3 = P3 received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)

......: CR1 ..= Case received by Guangzhou and entered into the computer. (call DOS, speak to an agent)

blue..: K1/K3 = P3 sent to Guanghou or received by Guangzhou.

......: CR1 ..= Case forwarded by the NVC to Guangzhou. (IVR automated message from NVC)

green.: K1/K3 = P3 received by CFL member or date on P3 letter.

......: CR1 ..= Case completed by the NVC. (IVR automated message from NVC)

The best case for predicting P4/Interview dates is the red P3 date. This date is completed (entered) by the consulate and puts K1/K3 and CR1 at an identical starting point for P4 prediction (assuming the CR1 cases do not take longer at the consulate from P3 to P4). Excepting delays in the "2nd name check", the prediction process is straightforward and consistent between all cases.

 

For K1/K3 if we do not have the red P3 dates then we will utilize the best available data (either blue or green P3 dates). This will result in adding time to the P4 prediction to account for the additional time required to reach the red P3 date (entered into the computer by Guangzhou).

As mentioned previously, I must adjust the K1/K3 members in the P4/Interview Prediction Table with blue and green P3 dates. Their projected P4/Interviews dates will change (increase) slightly. Nooneufo accounted for this previously, I will automate this into the program.

 

For CR1 cases this additional time between the three possible P3 dates is already included in the table (see previous post on this thread).

 

For historical purposes (particularly for predictions) the date on the P3 and P4 letter would help us greatly as noted by Nooneufo before.

 

 

Mark

[david_dawei]

There's a gray area as 10 people might have them entered the same time but a few might wait weeks to return it (once received)... and then their projects are off...

 

So there must be an assumption that people are turning the P3 around quickly, say a few days? And if you don't your predictions need to have more time added (at least an internal note for those)?

[david_dawei]

What's the data say on "date of namecheck complete" to P4 ? (we can call DOS to get the date)

 

If we don't collect this, I think it would be the best final adjustment indicator to people... it is the last step prior to the P4.

[Mengxin]

Timeline, just to let you know, my interview is actually Wednesday the 29th. Thanks..

 

Bahan, good luck man. thanks for your help

 

Doug