Interview/P3 List for 1st Week of June 2005

[Timeline]

Interview/P3 list for 1st week of June 2005.

 

Good luck to everyone for the next week.

 

Need the dates in the upper left hand corner of

your P3 and P4 letters please from 2004-2005.

 

 

Let us know of changes and additions.

 

Updates added to this post (May 31st, 2005 8pm):

jimglot - Blue/green/yellow slip -Interview failed

rogerwinksbrother - Interview success

Steve and Qingqing - Added

Leefisher3 - Added

Mari - Interview success

krjchen - Interview success

MarsofBorg - Interview success

wawafish - Interview success

peterscat - Interview success

 

 

(actual P3 to P4 received is as reported, not corrected for Monday/Tuesday Theory)

Unresolved (We are not going to forget)

 

CFL_Name-----------------P3--------P4------Interview--#days--P3-P4--Type-USC--Slip---Comments

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mari------------------07/15/04-------------05/27/05----------------------------------Interview Passed

Alex---------------------------------------12/08/05--------------------------Blue----Case Review

Deekdoken----------------------------------------------------------------------------Admin Processing ???

Zingaro---------------11/05/04-------------------------------------------------------Name Check Delay

Mike_Xiao-------------10/28/04--02/08/05---03/11/05----134----103---CR1--Yes-Blue----No explanation on slip

animejpop-------------10/10/04--03/08/05---04/13/05----185----149---K1---------------No information yet

jual_3----------------??/??/??--02/28/05---04/18/05----???-----98---K1---------------No information yet

Littleturtle----------01/28/05-------------------------------------------------------Name Check Delay

steve&wei-------------12/27/04--03/31/05---05/23/05----147-----94---IR1--------------No information yet

hank------------------12/20/04--03/25/05---05/26/05----157-----95---K1---------------No information yet

jimglot---------------12/08/04--03/31/05---05/31/05----174----113---K1---No--Blue----Relationship/Financial

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

Listed by upcoming Interview.

CFL_Name-----------------P3--------P4------Interview--#days--P3-P4--Type-USC--Slip---Comments

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

giddyup888------------02/14/05--05/21/05---05/26/05----101-----96---CR1--------------You said next Thursday ?

jimglot---------------12/08/04--03/31/05---05/31/05----174----113---K1---No--Blue----Updated

rogerwinksbrother-----11/20/04--03/25/05---05/31/05----192----125---K1---Yes-Passed--Updated

peterscat/Icebreaker--12/06/04--03/28/05---05/31/05----176-----112--K1---No--Passed--Updated

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

krjchen---------------12/21/04--05/17/05---06/01/05----162----143---K1 --Yes-Passed--Updated

nousername------------01/09/05--05/16/05---06/02/05----144----124---K1

MarsofBorg------------??/??/05--05/20/05---06/02/05----???----???---?? --Yes-Passed--Updated

wawafish--------------01/31/05--05/19/05---06/03/05----123----108---K1 --Yes-Passed--Updated

hlin------------------11/16/04--05/01/05---06/06/05----202----166---K1

Liuxia's Husband------12/24/05--04/27/05---06/08/05----166----124---K3

Ron_Frank-------------12/22/05--04/27/05---06/08/05----168----126---K3

melvin----------------12/18/04--05/01/05---06/13/05----177----133---K1

inxy------------------01/11/05--05/21/05---06/13/05----153----130---K3

DanR------------------12/27/04--04/28/05---06/15/05----170----122---K1

LouRose---------------12/28/05--04/29/05---06/16/05----169----135---DCF

Feathers268-----------12/29/05--05/13/05---06/16/05----169----135---K1

John90----------------01/11/05--05/20/05---06/17/05----157----125---K1

lizziedannypie--------12/23/04--04/30/05---06/21/05----180----126---DCF--------------K3-

darianstarfire--------12/23/04--04/30/05---06/21/05----180----126---DCF--------------CR1

jinqutierrez----------01/28/05--05/21/05---06/22/05----145----113---K1

yuehan123-------------02/19/05--05/24/05---06/23/05----124----98----K1

Bahan-----------------01/05/05--05/27/05---06/27/05----175----142---CR1

DocMartin817----------01/28/05--05/25/05---06/28/05----151----117---K1

hayuesan--------------12/08/04--04/27/05---06/30/05----204----140---K1

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[nooneufo]

This list reflects the Monday/Tuesday theory and earliest guess. P4 is the guess of the date on the Interview letter. P3 to P4 is how many days between. Format changed to P3 received/P3 letter date to maximize data from 001 forum. Still need all the dates possible to calculate and monitor change.

Calculations are so that you can compare to real numbers above. Includes projected decrease in time based on previous month decrease.

 

------------------------------------------Projected--Projected

---------- CFL_Name-----------------P3--------P4-----Interview--#days--P3-P4--Type-------------Comments

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

November-- Chad&Tong-------------10/04/04--05/31/05---07/12/05---281----239---K1

---------- Zingaro---------------10/28/04--05/31/05---07/12/05---257----215---K1---------------Name Check Delay

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

December-- markandyuping---------12/29/04--05/31/05---07/12/05---195----153---K1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

January--- June03----------------01/11/05--05/31/05---07/12/05---182----140---K1

---------- Littleturtle----------01/28/05--05/31/05---07/12/05---165----123---K3---------------Name Check Delay

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

February-- mild_bill-------------02/07/05--05/31/05---07/05/05---148----113---K1

---------- jfong988--------------02/21/05--05/31/05---07/12/05---141----99----K1

---------- vincent---------------02/25/05--05/31/05---07/01/05---126----95----K3

---------- pkfops----------------02/26/05--05/31/05---07/01/05---125----94----K1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

March----- baogg-----------------03/01/05--05/31/05---07/05/05---125----91----K3

---------- baogg-----------------02/03/05--08/02/05---08/29/05---207----180---CR1

---------- benefanfan------------03/03/05--05/31/05---07/05/05---124----89----K3

---------- benefanfan------------03/18/05--05/31/05---07/29/05---173----118---CR1

---------- F_&_L-----------------03/07/05--05/31/05---07/06/05---121----85----K1

---------- Steve and Qingqing----03/07/05--06/14/05---07/08/05---123----99----K1---------------P3 address delay

---------- RICHARDLOVESPING------03/08/05--05/31/05---07/08/05---122----84----K3

---------- alaskagypsy-----------03/11/05--05/31/05---07/14/05---125----81----K1

---------- dailyview-------------03/18/05--05/31/05---07/15/05---125----80----K1

---------- rikj3742--------------03/21/05--06/07/05---07/11/05---112----78----K1

---------- huang-----------------03/22/05--06/07/05---07/14/05---114----77----K1

---------- impatient-------------03/27/05--06/14/05---07/19/05---114----79----K1

---------- billv-----------------03/28/05--06/14/05---07/20/05---114----78----K1

---------- nagat715--------------03/28/05--06/14/05---07/20/05---114----78----K1

---------- buffalopaul-----------03/26/05--06/07/05---07/18/05---114----73----K1

---------- DavidZixuan-----------03/28/05--06/14/05---07/20/05---114----78----K1

---------- Annie Ray-------------03/29/05--06/14/05---07/20/05---113----77----K3

---------- xulei601--------------03/30/05--06/07/05---07/22/05---114----69----K1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

April----- Luo_Bin_&_Jian--------04/05/05--06/14/05---07/28/05---114----70----K1

---------- rosyanne--------------04/07/05--06/14/05---07/29/05---113----68----K1

---------- aquach----------------04/07/05--06/14/05---07/29/05---113----68----K1

---------- Jason+Joanna----------04/07/05--06/14/05---07/29/05---113----68----K1

---------- joenamy---------------12/17/04--06/14/05---07/12/05---207----179---CR1

---------- joenamy---------------02/06/05--07/05/05---08/08/05---183----149---CR1

---------- joenamy---------------04/09/05--08/30/05---9/30/05----174----143---CR1

---------- jtaylo69--------------04/11/05--06/14/05---07/22/05---102----64----K1

---------- Brian_Sharon----------04/12/05--06/14/05---08/03/05---105----62----K1

---------- Leefisher3------------04/12/05--06/14/05---08/03/05---113----63----K1

---------- tenfootalbino---------03/18/05--09/13/05---10/11/05---207----179---CR1

---------- tenfootalbino---------03/30/05--08/30/05---09/28/05---182----153---CR1

---------- tenfootalbino---------04/14/05--09/06/05---10/04/05---173----145---CR1

---------- James-----------------04/15/05--06/14/05---08/05/05---112----60----K3

---------- James-----------------04/25/04--09/13/05---10/24/05---182----141---CR1

---------- esun41----------------04/16/05--06/14/05---08/05/05---111----59----K1

---------- Jocelyn---------------04/20/05--06/21/05---08/03/05---105----62----K1

---------- wulongtea-------------04/20/05--06/21/05---08/03/05---105----62----K1

---------- amerchin--------------04/20/05--08/02/05---09/19/05---152----104---K1---------------P3 address delay

---------- lynne-----------------04/27/05--06/28/05---08/17/05---112----62----K3

---------- lynne-----------------04/21/05--07/19/05---10/20/05---182----89----CR1

---------- Inxsfan---------------04/28/05--06/28/05---08/05/05---99-----61----K1

---------- jbray-----------------04/28/05--06/25/05---08/05/05---99-----61----CR1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

May------- mlspyl----------------03/10/05--09/06/05---10/03/05---207----180---CR1

---------- mlspyl----------------03/24/05--08/23/05---09/22/05---182----152---CR1

---------- mlspyl----------------05/12/05--10/04/05---11/01/05---173----145---CR1

---------- Chinese_Wife!!!-------02/14/05--08/15/05---09/09/05---207----182---CR1

---------- Chinese_Wife!!!-------03/11/05--08/12/05---09/09/05---182----154---CR1

---------- Mengxin---------------03/08/05--09/06/05---10/03/05---209----182---CR1

---------- Mengxin---------------04/12/05--09/13/05---10/11/05---182----154---CR1

---------- Linbar----------------04/12/05--09/13/05---10/11/05---182----154---CR1

---------- SongDaJiang-----------04/15/05--10/11/05---11/08/05---207----179---CR1

---------- SongDaJiang-----------04/26/05--09/27/05---10/25/05---182----154---CR1

---------- markndannie-----------05/04/05--11/01/05---11/28/05---208----180---CR1

---------- markndannie-----------05/17/05--10/18/05---11/15/05---182----153---CR1

---------- blsqueaky-------------04/17/05--10/18/05---11/10/05---207----184---IR1

---------- blsqueaky-------------05/22/05--10/20/05---11/21/05---183----151---IR1

---------- eeyore----------------04/18/05--10/18/05---11/11/05---207----183---CR1

---------- bubbafred10-----------05/16/05--11/15/05---12/09/05---207----183---CR1

---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

If the P3 date listed is not the one in the computer at GZ, let me know it if you want a more accurate prediction. If it is the date you sent the P3, I would add a week or two.

 

(#days is from P3 to Interview, more accurate if time reported is P3 entry into computer)

Color code for K1 and K3 sending P3 to Guz(Top color most accurate)

Red---- = P3 entered in Computer

Blue--- = P3 received at GUZ (Mail delivery of P3 papers)

Green-- = P3 sent to GUZ

Pink--- = P3 received from GUZ

Orange- = P3 uncertain

 

Color code for K3/CR1/IR1 sending ds-230 to NVC(Still working on accuracy, need more data)

Brown-- = DS-230 Sent to NVC or Received

Purple- = Case Complete at NVC

Gray--- = DS-230 At GUZ from NVC

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Directions to enter your time line. (From John & Hai Yan)

At the top of this page you will see a tool bar that has the words "Your Control Panel." Click on these words to go to your control panel. On the upper left you will see a list of functions that you can perform. Look for the the words "Edit my signature." Click on these words and when the next window opens, there will be a box where you can type in your timeline. After you are finished, click on the button below the box that says, "Update my Signature."

 

Whats an informative time line? As much as possible about everything. But for the purposes of this list, specifically at least the following.

 

For K1/K3:

/ / Date on P3 Letter

/ / P-3 received via EMS

/ / P-3 returned to GUZ via EMS

/ / P-3 entered in computer at Guangzhou

/ / Name Check Complete

/ / P-4 Date on P4 Interview Letter

/ / P-4 received (or by calling DOS)

/ / Interview

 

For CR1/IR1:

/ / DS-230 Sent to NVC

/ / Case Complete at NVC

/ / Case at Guz and entered into Guz computer

/ / Name Check Complete

/ / P-4 Date on P4 Interview Letter

/ / P-4 received (or by calling DOS)

/ / Interview

 

How do you get this information?

By calling DOS at 1-202-663-1225, Press 1, then 0, then 0, have your GUZ number, your fiance/spouse/family member name and birthdate available and ask your question.

 

Timeline Editors are mlspyl and nooneufo.

[yuehan123]

Interesting that DOS knew P-4 date at least 3 days before the date on the P-4 letter.

 

I called DOS 05-28, P-4 received June 2 and is dated 05-31.

[dailyview]

I called DOS yesterday and they do not have an interview date scheduled yet.

[david_dawei]

Format changed to P3 received/P3 letter date to maximize data from 001 forum.

As I was going to ask my question. the answer dawned on me...

 

But had to do with the P3 changed to received...

 

But seems odd to make visual predictions now... since everyone's received date can be all over the place .. If one guy took a month to do his P3, and I took 2 days, then I cannot make visual sense of what's going on. If our P3 were entered (or sent) close to each other, then I can 'see' this trend.

 

I finally got used to following the trend of "P3s entered/received by GZ"... I could see that P3s in GUZ on Feb are now getting interviews... but now this trend cannot be really trusted since there's no common denominator in a sense.

 

Can we get P3 entered/received at GUZ as another column, if its not a headache?

[nooneufo]

To start, based on months of watching, nothing is certain until Saturday night arrives

Yuehan123, thank you for this very important information.

 

Actually, I have always been making the interview prediction on the spread sheet. On occasion I have posted it as well, or if some one asked me in a pm, gave my best guess based on the data of the moment. It is only now with the help of mlspyl are we getting more data into the posting, to include this more regularly. However, this week is going to be a pessimistic / optimistic prediction week.

 

To answer specifically regarding the return of the P3 versus its received date( Letter date is more accurate tracking), just a general impression is that if you don't return it within a week or two from receiving it, you can start adding each day to your wait time that you don't send it back. It is hard to get enough numbers on this, as very few people go beyond two weeks waiting to send this back from receiving it. Those that have, have longer wait times, P3 to Interview in line with the that added time. I say this has to do with the name check counter, meaning that counter can not start until they get the P3. There is an average amount of time for a name check, and they punch this number in for everyone.

 

Because of the latest trends, and the recent rumour mill, I will post some charts so you can make your own guess for what is next. My opinion now, unless we receive new data by Saturday is that everyone is going to be delayed from now on until the move is completed at Guangzhou. This month had twice the number of Interviews on average, and they seem to be trying to speed up. But the pattern of P4's and Interviews have now changed. For example, it was very rare to get an Interview on a Monday. No longer true. It also appears that part of trying to get out as many Interviews as possible, there is a change of the average day they send it out away from Tuesday to a more random pattern.

No one has reported receiving a letter telling them to go to the new consulate location (Of course no one except the unverified person on 001 has gotten a July Interview). Based on the previous six months data, we should have people getting July Interviews this week. So there is still time for this, but along with the lunch story from rogerwink, it looks bad today. As I said, today I am just feeling pessimistic and optimistic. The fourth chart shows why.

 

I am actually using an estimated P3 letter date for these charts, as the data seems clear that this is what actually matters for your place in line. If your P3 is entered into the computer within a certain amount of time your Interview still falls in line with your P3 letter date associates. At least with the few letter dates so far accumulated. Then I back check that with the P3 computer entry date, or my estimated one if it is not known, to narrow down the likely P4 date, by comparing the previous months send out pattern. The second reason, is following this theory for the 001 forum allows me to use their data as well, as it seems they averagely are posting this same P3 date, or at least the day they recieved it. Third, while you can't get an Interview or a name check completed until you send your P3 documents back, your total time for waiting starts the date on the P3, as from the Guz point of view, you are holding up the process.

 

When you compare the pattern of the consulates behaviour for April, May and June Interviews, things seem a little wild for June. But the fourth chart shows it could be argued that this is not true from a trend point of view, they are just doing more work.

A specific note for CR1's, I have marked the CR1's for the June chart in bright green for 001 CR1's, and the only CFL CR1, Bahan, in bright blue.

 

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/jun2jun.gif

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/May2jun.gif

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/April2jun.gif

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/3monthoverlay.gif

[nooneufo]

Looks like it is time for optimism. A new July interview has appeard on 001 forum, and this persons time line follows the normal monthly pattern that I would expect.

 

They are 149 day P3 to Interview, 95 days P3 to P4, and as what usually happens for a new month, plenty of time to prepare with a 54 days from P4 to Interview.

[david_dawei]

Looks like it is time for optimism. A new July interview has appeard on 001 forum, and this persons time line follows the normal monthly pattern that I would expect.

 

They are 149 day P3 to Interview, 95 days P3 to P4, and as what usually happens for a new month, plenty of time to prepare with a 54 days from P4 to Interview.

Did you hear in that one thread.. someone said they talked to a VO or someone at the embassy.. and the workers were told [internally] that the move would take a week...

[wulongtea]

Just finished a call to DOS this morning to see if there has been any change in on case. She confirmed that the P3 information was received on 5/13 and that she is "eligible for an interview".

 

I asked if there is any sort of name check or back ground check being done, and she said no, that is not needed. She just said that she is in line to be scheduled for an interview.

 

But she could not give any timeframe for how long it would take.

 

I will be leaving on tues to be with my fiancee for a month. it would be great if the latest predictions are true, and we get the P4 on 6/21 while I am there, the first day of summer!

[yuehan123]

The workers on the DOS end of the telephone line mostly have no clue about timelines. How could they- they don't have our timeline data. The DOS worker I spoke to about 3 weeks ago said "You can expect a 9 month wait from name check complete to Interview scheduled from Guangzhou" Then, 3 weeks later, or about 2.5 months from P-3 received at guz I had the June 23 interview date.

 

Can you imagine if we all just said "OK, 9 more months? No problem" Don't take it sitting down.

[david_dawei]

The workers on the DOS end of the telephone line mostly have no clue about timelines.  How could they-  they don't have our timeline data.  The DOS worker I spoke to about 3 weeks ago said "You can expect a 9 month wait from name check complete to Interview scheduled from Guangzhou"  Then, 3 weeks later, or about 2.5 months from P-3 received at guz I had the June 23 interview date.

 

Can you imagine if we all just said "OK, 9 more months?  No problem"  Don't take it sitting down.

point taken... the best advice seems to be if the information just strikes you as wrong, call again and again and hopefully someone a little more clued in can give something more informative.. and ask with a post as well.

[david_dawei]

I called DOS today... talked to pleasant woman... asked if they could confirm that the name check is complete or not and anything on interview date.

 

They confirmed name check is done and just awaits a interview date...

 

I assume, if one times it right, we can get the interview date (from DOS) before our SO gets the P4... at least getting a week advance notice, right?

 

And most P4 to interview is about 5-6 weeks, right?

 

--------------------------------------

my projected interview date is 7/20

--------------------------------------

 

I was just told of a business trip planned for July 30-Aug 5... seems this could not of been at a worse time... as long as the interview is not later than July 22, I can squeeze in my trip to China for the interview and probably get back for the trip..

 

Otherwise, if the interview slips beyond July 22 (which I think it will), I got to tell my boss I cannot attend the trip...

 

Ideally, the interview will slip to Aug 15 or later.. then I can attend the work trip and leave immediately and have some time to help prepare...

 

Strange to be thinking about an interview date to delay !

[david_dawei]

SO I see that Jfong988 got an interview date of 6/15, and Vincent of 7/28 ...

 

On 001 there are two July interview dates: 7/25, 7/26 .

 

So seems a leap frog of dates might occur ??

[nooneufo]

The P4 order always starts high for the first of each interview month when the P4s come out. Then it goes down as they back fill. I have includue a chart that shows the order based on the P4 dates from May 1st to May 31st in that order. You can see it is sort of like a weekly or daily thing off each stack of papers, oldest gets assigned first. Maybe this is by last names each day/week. But basically, with the few data points right now my suggestion is to add at least 125 days from your P3 letter date to the date of the interview as an average, based on Junes average. Although the data right now says use 150 days, and maybe one should, but as I say, the first few are always the highest numbers.

The good news is they are doing July. So if we assume only a week delay, and based on the huge number for June, perhaps we can expect the wait to at least stay the same as an average. No doubt some people will be much earlier if the trend continues though. But I would stick with 125 days for today.

 

No time to change the list as we are having posting problems, but for wulongtea, based on the latest, I would make it now as a P4 the week of 07/12/05 and an interview around 08/23/05. That would be 125 days from P3 to interview, with 39 days notice. The list is more optimistic accounting for a speed up, but the interview date would not be correct on the list at the top of this thread.

 

For DavidZixuan, the list is based on 114 days based on the June data of assumed two week increase. If we took worst case, and said the latest high of 150 allows for only the same average low of 125, then we would add a week or two more. Still too early to tell what is the pattern going to be. I am hopeful it will be this way still at the worst. Since they are scheduling for July, I will make an assumption that what they might do, is simply tell the person in the morning to come back to the new location in the afternoon? Anything can be done if they want to. So far, I have no one with less than 14 days notice. I dont think there is a leap frog of dates, the last of the month interviews have been assigned this way for months, they come out first, then they bounce to the beginning of the month, back and forth. No different than when there are holidays. Hence the chart.

 

The first chart is the P4 dates as people have reported them with out adjustments, in p4 order from beginning to end of May.

The second chart is my shifting each persons P4 date back to the nearest Tuesday to account for the mailing time.

 

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/Junp4order.gif

 

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y60/diogenesfree/ShiftedJunp4order.gif

[BuffaloPaul]

Strange to be thinking about an interview date to delay !

we're kind of in the same boat. Jenny has a CD which she cannot withdraw from the bank until mid-August. so if the interview is before then, she cannot come here any earlier.