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  1. Is China headed toward collapse?

    in The Middle Kingdom - 中国

    Posted

    link

     

    The conventional wisdom in Washington and in most of the rest of the world is that the roaring Chinese economy is going to pull the global economy out of recession and back into growth. It¡¯s China¡¯s turn, the theory goes, as American consumers ¡ª who propelled the last global boom with their borrowing and spending ways ¡ª have begun to tighten their belts and increase savings rates.

     

    The Chinese, with their unbridled capitalistic expansion propelled by a system they still refer to as ¡°socialism with Chinese characteristics,¡± are still thriving, though, with annual gross domestic product growth of 8.9 percent in the third quarter and a domestic consumer market just starting to flex its enormous muscles.

     

    That¡¯s prompted some cheerleading from U.S. officials, who want to see those Chinese consumers begin to pick up the slack in the global economy ¡ª a theme President Barack Obama and his delegation are certain to bring up during next week¡¯s visit to China.

     

    ¡°Purchases of U.S. consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in the past,¡± Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said during a trip to Beijing this spring. ¡°In China, ... growth that is sustainable will require a very substantial shift from external to domestic demand, from an investment and export-intensive growth to growth led by consumption.¡±

     

    That¡¯s one vision of the future.

     

    But there¡¯s a growing group of market professionals who see a different picture altogether. These self-styled China bears take the less popular view: that the much-vaunted Chinese economic miracle is nothing but a paper dragon. In fact, they argue that the Chinese have dangerously overheated their economy, building malls, luxury stores and infrastructure for which there is almost no demand, and that the entire system is teetering toward collapse.

     

    A Chinese collapse, of course, would have profound effects on the United States, limiting China¡¯s ability to buy U.S. debt and provoking unknown political changes inside the Chinese regime.

     

    The China bears could be dismissed as a bunch of cranks and grumps except for one member of the group: hedge fund investor Jim Chanos.

     

    Chanos, a billionaire, is the founder of the investment firm Kynikos Associates and a famous short seller ¡ª an investor who scrutinizes companies looking for hidden flaws and then bets against those firms in the market.

     

    His most famous call came in 2001, when Chanos was one of the first to figure out that the accounting numbers presented to the public by Enron were pure fiction. Chanos began contacting Wall Street investment houses that were touting Enron¡¯s stock. ¡°We were struck by how many of them conceded that there was no way to analyze Enron but that investing in Enron was, instead, a ¡®trust me¡¯ story,¡± Chanos told a congressional committee in 2002.

     

     

    Now, Chanos says he has found another ¡°trust me¡± story: China. And he is moving to short the entire nation¡¯s economy. Washington policymakers would do well to understand his argument, because if he¡¯s right, the consequences will be felt here.

     

    Chanos and the other bears point to several key pieces of evidence that China is heading for a crash.

     

    First, they point to the enormous Chinese economic stimulus effort ¡ª with the government spending $900 billion to prop up a $4.3 trillion economy. ¡°Yet China¡¯s economy, for all the stimulus it has received in 11 months, is underperforming,¡± Gordon Chang, author of ¡°The Coming Collapse of China,¡± wrote in Forbes at the end of October. ¡°More important, it is unlikely that [third-quarter] expansion was anywhere near the claimed 8.9 percent.¡±

     

    Chang argues that inconsistencies in Chinese official statistics ¡ª like the surging numbers for car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption ¡ª indicate that the Chinese are simply cooking their books. He speculates that Chinese state-run companies are buying fleets of cars and simply storing them in giant parking lots in order to generate apparent growth.

     

    Another data point cited by the bears: overcapacity. For example, the Chinese already consume more cement than the rest of the world combined, at 1.4 billion tons per year. But they have dramatically ramped up their ability to produce even more in recent years, leading to an estimated spare capacity of about 340 million tons, which, according to a report prepared earlier this year by Pivot Capital Management, is more than the consumption in the U.S., India and Japan combined.

     

    This, Chanos and others argue, is happening in sector after sector in the Chinese economy. And that means the Chinese are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.

     

    The Pivot Capital report was extremely popular in Chanos¡¯s office and concluded, ¡°We believe the coming slowdown in China has the potential to be a similar watershed event for world markets as the reversal of the U.S. subprime and housing boom.¡±

     

    And the bears also keep a close eye on anecdotal reports from the ground level in China, like a recent posting on a blog called The Peking Duck about shopping at Beijing¡¯s ¡°stunningly dysfunctional, catastrophic mall, called The Place.¡±

     

    ¡°I was shocked at what I saw,¡± the blogger wrote. ¡°Fifty percent of the eateries in the basement were boarded up. The cheap food court, too, was gone, covered up with ugly blue boarding, making the basement especially grim and dreary. ... There is simply too much stuff, too many stores and no buyers.¡±

     

    I'm skeptical. I've been hearing the same sort of thing for more than a decade now.

    In every Chinese city I have ever been to I see many new empty apartments with more new ones bringing built. I dont know if this viewpoint is correct but I see enough here to give it some thought and some credibility.

  4. Ok so now we are NVC out how long till P-3?

    in Consulate Process: P-3 ~ Interview

    Posted

    Robert, did you opt in for electronic processing?

     

    As far as I know the k-1 dose not opt in. All K visas are sent electronic now.

     

    The woman at the NVC said it was sent out both ways Electronic and DHL.

     

    maybe they get things started with the Electronic and by the time the interview is schedualed the DHL package is there.

     

     

    They have done it this way for as long as I've been around. Historically, they've waited for the physical package to show up before they do any processing.

    It appears they are sending P3 package out about 1 month after the case is sent from NVC to GUZ. This is shorter than in the past but I dont understand the reason if they are still sending the case by DHL.

  6. Relocation from China - Timing Issue with Visa

    in General Visa Discussion & First Steps

    Posted

    You need to find out from GUZ if you will be able to use the K-3. They will often combine the two into a single CR-1 interview when they reach GUZ so close together.

    Exactly, since you elected to do the electronic process for the CR-1, if the CR-1 file makes it to the consulate before K-3 interview, the consulate tends to drop the K-3 in favor of the CR-1 and schedules the CR-1 interview in place of the K-3. I remember a while back another CFL member had that happen and did not know this, they ended up with a blue for vaccinations, they had done medical thinking K-3 interview and did not do vaccinations.

     

    K-3 Visa is valid for 6 months after issuance for entry to the USA and then is valid for up to 2 years for future entries.

     

    Also your consern about CR-1 may wait a few months for a green-card after entry is not a issue, CR-1 gets a GREEN-CARD I-551 stamp in their passport upon entry to the USA this makes theri pasport act as a green-card, the stamp allows travel and work for up to a year while waiting for the actual card to arrive in the mail. Essentially a CR-1 could enter the USA get the stamp and then travel the next day without an issue, the have green-card stamp.

    Thanks!

     

    The K-3 is already at GUZ (they mailed the P3 packet on 10.27.2009 but to the wrong mailing address -- they ignored the lawyer's attachment listing a separate mailing address from our residence address). I have not submitted any of the documents for the CR-1 to NVC yet.

     

    However what you say makes my decision an easy one. I did not realize that once she enters the US that the I-551 stamp can be used as GC while waiting for the actual GC to arrive in the mail. This means we could get her CR-1 visa, go to the US for a 1-2 week visit, and then return to China while letting her actual GC come to my home address in the US (where someone picks up my mail).

     

    Thanks for the great information. I thought you had to apply for AP or some other forms, etc. to leave the US without your actual GC.

  7. Relocation from China - Timing Issue with Visa

    in General Visa Discussion & First Steps

    Posted

    I am trying to determine the best action to take regarding my situation. I am hoping for some advice based on other's experience.

     

    As you can see from my signature my visa approval process has been far from smooth. My assignment here in China has been extended until June 2010 (and could be extended again).

     

    Here is the situation:

    We will go back to USA in June/July 2010

    Our two year anniversary is Oct 2010

    We are in CR-1 electronic processing (documents not sent in yet)

    We are awaiting for K3 to arrive at GUZ

     

    I wanted to get a K3 visa and use it to let my wife and I travel back/forth to USA while we are still in China. I thought this was a good idea because:

    K3 visa is good for 2 years

    Keep the CR-1 IV open and interview closer to June 2010

    Enter USA with CR-1 IV after Oct 2010 and get 10-yr GC

     

    However I have been told that some consulates (including China) have begun issuing K3 visas for less than two years (3, 4 and 6 months only). This being the case I then thought we could just interview for CR-1 IV as soon as possible and use it to visit the USA and then come back to China (since it is only valid for 6 months). However the GC will not be mailed/issued until 4-6 weeks after arriving in the USA so how would she be able to come back to China and then re-enter the USA without the GC?

     

    The other option is to delay the CR-1 IV interview until less than 6 months before our schedule return to the USA (for example Jan 2010 or later). I am reluctant to do this because, based on my past experience, I am worried about unexpected delays.

     

    On the other hand, even if I delay the interview till Jan 2010, if my China assignment is extended again after getting the CR-1 IV how would we deal with this because then we are back into the same situation where the CR-1 IV will expire before we relocate back to the USA.

     

    I see a lot of people have DCF China recently. What are your plans after receiving the CR-1 IV -- you will immediately return to the USA?

  8. ten year id

    in AOS & Immigration Challenges

    Posted

    Our second wedding anniversary will be in Oct. 2010. However we will most likely move back to the US in Jul. 2010. Therefore she will have a conditional 2-yr GC issued to her.

     

    I can only find in the I-751 instructions that one should apply for removal of conditions within the 90 days before the card expires. Does anyone know if we could file for removal of conditions after our 2-yr wedding anniversary but before the 90 days prior to the conditiondal GC expiration?

    No exceptions, the rule is quite firm, removal of conditions is based on residency time, not marriage time.

     

    You need to be a LPR for a period of 21 months on a conditional green-card.

     

    I have seen people on VJ enter the USA a few days before 2 years of marriage, and end up getting the 2 year conditional card.

    Thanks Dan and Randy .... not that I understand the logic but this is what I thought the answer would be.

  9. Email to GUZ

    in Consulate Process: P-3 ~ Interview

    Posted

    Got a worthless response from GUZ tonight. Because they can not determine if I am really the petitioner they want me to FAX or MAIL them my personal information and my Fiancee phone number. After they determine whether they LOST our P3 paper work they will either MAIL (not email) me a response....or call my fiancee and let her know. I can only assume that this will take way to long. I guess this is how they get out of giving a response :angry: . We are re-sending papers on Monday..China time. Funny.....the email address I gave them is the same one I gave USCIS and NVC...and DOS. You would think that that would be enough since I think it is listed somewhere there on the papers :(

    You were able to get an email to GUZ using the email form? The site still seems to be down.

  10. ten year id

    in AOS & Immigration Challenges

    Posted

    I will be approaching the same in May of 2010, so I will submit form and payment by Feb 2010.

    My wifes married name is on: Social Security card, our checking and savings acount, (has debit card in her name for both) a Visa credit card (her name and mine on seperate cards but same account), her own Chase card with her name, my car insurance (she doesn't drive though), Water Utilities, Florida Power and Light, Life/accident insurance with her as beneficiery, my Will naming her as beneficiery and she has a Florida state ID.

    Does anyone see the need for me to do a quit claim deed to get her name on house deed? Hate to bear the expense of the process and relinquish all rights to our home. She's my sweetheart and can have anything that makes her happy, but not sure if I need to spend the $300 and time off from work. Sorry to jump on your post my friend, but hope this helps others too! : )

    Re doing home deed is optional, your list is long and looks good to me.

     

    Note: you will be filing the I-751 AFTER Feb 2010 but before the CR-Green card expires, not "by" Feb. It is filed within 90 days before the card expires.

    Our second wedding anniversary will be in Oct. 2010. However we will most likely move back to the US in Jul. 2010. Therefore she will have a conditional 2-yr GC issued to her.

     

    I can only find in the I-751 instructions that one should apply for removal of conditions within the 90 days before the card expires. Does anyone know if we could file for removal of conditions after our 2-yr wedding anniversary but before the 90 days prior to the conditiondal GC expiration?

  11. Driver License Question

    in AOS & Immigration Challenges

    Posted

    We went down to the DMV for Lancy to take her written drivers test and hopefully to get a learners permit, but when we got there I found out that because her I-94 was expired she wasn't elligible to take the test, no proof of her being here legally. I was told that she needs a valid I-94 or a I-551 form. Does anyone know what we can do or do we have to wait for the green card before she can drive? I'll try to figure out what the I-551 form is and see if I can possibly get one of those.

     

    Thanks,

     

    Auggie & Lancy

    DL issuance is state specific....

  14. Interracial couple denied marriage license in La.

    in Stateside

    Posted · Edited by whome? (see edit history)

    Since we are forced to live in a politically correct society now we must always be on guard with what we say or do. The 21st century will go down in history as the brain washing and decline of America and the American populace will believe and endorse mediocrity.

    I don't see any connection between racism and being politically correct. Are you saying it's OK to be a racist but people are afraid to be because it isn't politically correct?

    When I was growing up I was taught that abilty puts you on top. Now being a politically correct ass kissing coward puts you there. This syndrome is starting to crack now. Bottom line I do not care what race or nationality a person is. A person must earn the respect of their fellow man. My Father did. He was called a WOP, A Dago, a Greaseball. He refused to let society grind him in the mud. He earned the respect of his adopted fellow Americans by building a good life and supported his family. He did not look to the government for help. This would have been a disgrace for him to do so. I am racist against superficial phonies, on going ignorance and slothfulness.

    How does any of this apply to the JOP in La.?

  15. Interracial couple denied marriage license in La.

    in Stateside

    Posted

    Since we are forced to live in a politically correct society now we must always be on guard with what we say or do. The 21st century will go down in history as the brain washing and decline of America and the American populace will believe and endorse mediocrity.

    I don't see any connection between racism and being politically correct. Are you saying it's OK to be a racist but people are afraid to be because it isn't politically correct?

    I have to agree.....I cannot see how anyone can justify anything this person has said. He should keep his mouth closed in order to not remove all doubt as to his stupidity.

  16. Rural China (Donglu Shandong)

    in The Middle Kingdom - 中国

    Posted

    Those pics seem pretty mild compared to what I have seen over the years.

    My only intent was to say I have seen this particular village and the BBC pictures and descriptions are a very accurate representation of the village. I cannot speak for all villages in China (although some of the others in Shandong I have visited are very similar).

  17. Wedding Banquet Traditions

    in Culture & Language Discussion

    Posted

    My girlfriend has told me of some wedding traditions that her family have. I have heard of some of them, but there are some I¡¯ve never heard of before.

     

    * The female¡¯s family keeps the red envelopes given by the female¡¯s relatives and friends at the wedding banquet.

    * When a guest gives a red envelope, the hosts gives the guest a red envelope in return. The return red envelope is paid for by the male.

     

    Has anyone heard of these traditions before?

     

    My girlfriend¡¯s family are middle class and from Guangzhou.

     

    Thanks.

     

    China is very diverse and customs can vary considerably from area to area. As to your first question, yes, this is common in a lot of areas in China for the wife's family to keep the red envelopes. Not all areas are like this but some are, including my Wife's hometown. The rationale being that this is the way for her parents to recoup all of their red envelope payments paid out to the weddings of family and friends.

     

    As to the other question, I have never heard of such a thing. I would be suspicious and a little concerned about this. I just asked my wife about this and she said she has never heard of such a thing. My wife thinks she might be referring to giving a small gift in red envelope to those who help with the wedding reception.

     

    FYI, there are many threads here that discuss many details of weddings and banquets in China that would probably be helpful to you.

    For number 2 I was assuming he meant the small red bag that contains a small memory of the wedding (small gift and paper with date and names of the couple). However even if this is not the case why should he be suspicious and concerned?

     

    I see so many complain about the governemnt treating us a guilty first and having to prove we are innocent in order to get a visa but yet we are very easy to always assume our chinese partner is guilty of something if they tells us a tradition that we dont like, know of, or (heaven forbid) costs some money.

  18. Wedding Banquet Traditions

    in Culture & Language Discussion

    Posted

    My girlfriend has told me of some wedding traditions that her family have. I have heard of some of them, but there are some I¡¯ve never heard of before.

     

    * The female¡¯s family keeps the red envelopes given by the female¡¯s relatives and friends at the wedding banquet.

    * When a guest gives a red envelope, the hosts gives the guest a red envelope in return. The return red envelope is paid for by the male.

     

    Has anyone heard of these traditions before?

     

    My girlfriend¡¯s family are middle class and from Guangzhou.

     

    Thanks.

    Yes.

  19. Rural China (Donglu Shandong)

    in The Middle Kingdom - 中国

    Posted

    Here are very good and true pictures of one rural Chinese village in Shandong province. I have actually been here to look at an installation for a work related project.

     

    The only reason I post this link is because the pictures are "true" to life and most of what is written is what I saw or was told when asked questions to people I trusted to give me straight answers.

     

    I leave it up to you to decide how bad or not bad the life really is.

     

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pict...hina/html/1.stm

  21. Airfares from China

    in Communications, Planes, Shipping & Money

    Posted

    Try ctrip.com.

     

    For domestic china flights they are much cheaper than flychina.com. I also checked from Shanghai to NY on 02.05.2010 with flychina and ctrip and found ctrip about 1000 rmb cheaper. However with ctrip most international flights still cannot be booked online. For example only Shanghai to NY is online. For Guangzhou or Beijing, etc. you need to call them. However they have very good english speaking agents and great customer service.

     

    And yes buying the ticket in China or with Chinese company is usually cheaper.

     

     

     

    For flights in China. I have used elong.net. elong.com is the chinese

    version. Booking hotels the chinese version was cheaper for the same

    dates and the same hotel. Never compared the plane tickets

     

    We also use elong.com and qunar.com. On any given day the chinese version of ctrip.com, elong.com or qunar.com can be cheaper. Usually elong and qunar show cheaper fares but sometimes the seats are limited and they are "gone" when you go to buy them. Ctrip.com is much easier for USC to use unless you can read chinese or willing to translate the pages back and forth like I do sometimes.

     

    But elong.com is not the chinese version of ctrip.com. The two are different.

  22. AOS Interview Revisited

    in AOS & Immigration Challenges

    Posted

    This is sadly the same experience i had with USCIS...they knew after 2 weeks that my application had been misplaced or lost but they gave me the run-around (and you must wait 90 days) until finally they "found" that my application was never actually sent to NVC after NOA-2.

     

    They had to nerve to ask me after if there was "anything else they could HELP me with".....

  23. Airfares from China

    in Communications, Planes, Shipping & Money

    Posted · Edited by whome? (see edit history)

    Try ctrip.com.

     

    For domestic china flights they are much cheaper than flychina.com. I also checked from Shanghai to NY on 02.05.2010 with flychina and ctrip and found ctrip about 1000 rmb cheaper. However with ctrip most international flights still cannot be booked online. For example only Shanghai to NY is online. For Guangzhou or Beijing, etc. you need to call them. However they have very good english speaking agents and great customer service.

     

    And yes buying the ticket in China or with Chinese company is usually cheaper.

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