CNN story on Trump's interview on recent 60 Minutes interview

[danb]

In an article I just read on the internet it was said that recently the Chinese economy may not be doing so well. I find that surprising. Is that true?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/9-noteworthy-moments-from-trumps-60-minutes-interview/ar-BBOodEr

"When asked if he was ready to negotiate, Trump responded, "I have a great chemistry ... with President Xi (Jinping) of China. I don't know that that's necessarily going to continue. I told President Xi we cannot continue to have China take $500 billion a year out of the United States in the form of trade and other things ... and I said we can't do that, and we're not going to do that anymore."

Trump said he was not trying to push China into an economic depression.

"No, no, although they're down 32% in four months, which is 1929," the President said. He added, "I don't want that. ... I want them to negotiate a fair deal with us. I want them to open their markets like ... our markets are open." "

In school many many years ago we giving signs of a depression by showing us cartons of bushels of local money ( a sign of inflation) need to buy a loaf of bread, lines and lines of people lined up at the local soup kitchens, and vast number of people being out of the work. Are there real signs of this happening in today's China or are they talking about something else. What do you all think?

[Randy W]

"Sure. I know all these things. I mean, I'm not a baby. I know these things," he said.

 

 

 

I can't imagine any possible on-topic response here that WOULDN'T be political or just flat out non-sensical.

 

China's response to the trade deficit issue?

 

If the US wanted to narrow the trade gap it could sell four aircraft carriers to China.

 

[danb]

I didn't/ don't want to turn this into a political discussion. They usually don't go well. This morning I listened to an abridged version of the 60 Minute interview. I know that the value of the RMB has changed slightly in the past 5 years ago. I also have heard that the prices in China gone up some in the past 3 or 4 years. But I haven't noticed that big of a change. Perhaps I should have consider the source.

 

 

Opphs... enter this post twice can you delete one? Thanks.

Edited October 15, 2018 by danb (see edit history)

[Allon]

The short answer to me is yes,China will not win a trade war. But the people of both countries will lose. And we can skirt the political issue by just discussing economics.

 

Aside from all the metrics which do show prices for commodity goods are up in China, the US has yet to be feel the pinch but will shortly. The Fed raised interest rates twice and the market does not like that as shown by the recent slide in prices. We are fast becoming an investment not a manufacturing country. When the market goes down, it causes pain.

 

As I talk with Chinese on the forums I go to now and then, they are saying it is getting tougher for them. Example: Pork, their favored meat, before the trade wars was scarce The government had to release pork reserved for the PLA to sell on the open Chinese market in order to stabilize prices on pork and make it more available. With US pork now having a higher tariff, I can't imagine what it is like. (This subject has been discussed before here.)

 

Luxury goods are really expensive now in China. Housing market is volatile in China as prices continue to rise out of touch with the average family there.

 

But we are not near depression stage. A depression is a sustained long term downturn of the GDP. A recession is usually defined as three consecutive periods (usually quarters) of negative growth of the GDP. When bond prices rise, inflation starts to rear its ugly head. Bond prices are rising. So an anticipated end to the recent gains is forthcoming, trade war or not. Then the Fed will have a tough decision to make. The wrong one will lead to deflation, or inflation, in which both could lead to a recession. In any case it will mean some constrains on the economy. We probably won't see the job gains we have seen lately.

 

But if you want to see what happened in the Great Depression, you might have to wait a while. No long lines for soup but there are soup kitchens of a sort (food banks).

 

The Fed is always the key lately.

[eseum]

During my two trips to China earlier this year I did notice the higher prices for clothing and other non-food items. In Chongqing, prices for clothes were at or above those in Las Vegas stores. Food wise I found prices to still be pretty cheap (in-store and at restaurants) in comparison. There seemed to be a healthy number of people out shopping as well. None of my wife's relatives commented about prices for any items. They did ask my wife if we were doing okay in America.

[Randy W]

Perhaps a more realistic assessment from the SCMP. The author is

 

William Pesek is a Tokyo-based author of Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decades. He has been a columnist at Barron’s and Bloomberg.

 

 

 

How Trump’s trade war is driving China nuts

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has reacted to American pressure with a level of desperation that is good for neither Washington nor Beijing

 

 

Initially, Xi’s government figured the president was bluffing. Beijing’s calculation was that, sure, Trump might slap some tariffs on Chinese goods, but it’s a mere negotiating tactic – his “art of the deal” writ large. After all, past American presidents had often attacked China on the campaign trail – only to make nice while in office.

Xi’s men held it together as Trump slapped taxes of 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium. They figured Trump’s initial attack on US$50 billion of Chinese imports in June would satisfy Peter Navarro and other protectionist voices in the White House.

Hardly, as Xi’s team is realising. If the extra US$200 billion of levies Trump tossed Beijing’s way in September were not reality-check enough, Mike Pence’s October 4 “we-will-not-stand-down” speech suggests 2019 could get even worse for Beijing.

Pence accused Beijing of trying to “malign” Trump’s credibility, of “reckless harassment” and of working to engineer “a different American president.” On both economic and military issues, Pence declared: “We will not be intimidated; we will not stand down.”

The vice-president seemed to confirm that Trump’s trade war is more about tackling China than creating US jobs. Worse, perhaps, taxing Beijing is shaping up to be a 2020 re-election strategy. Forget Russia, Pence suggested: China is the real election meddler. It “clearly laid down an official marker for a much more competitive and contentious New Era of US-China relations”, says China analyst Bill Bishop.

All this is throwing Xi’s domestic strategies into disarray – perhaps permanently.

 

 

[Allon]

I saw that and a similar article (somewhere) and I think it's pretty accurate. I just wish there were other ways of getting the result both sides want.

[danb]

The article that Randy posted was an interesting read. It gives a view about some of the things that have been going on in the past 6 months or so. The President comment of, "No, no, although they're down 32% in four months, which is 1929..." made me think that he was talking about depression like condition. What exactly the 32 % number represented is unclear to me. Is it about growth , earnings or what?? It just did not seem to be a good thing. The first video where the lady states ( at 36 sec) " I would be happiest if it does not affect our daily life. " I like her statement. I am not interested in world economic turmoil but it would nice to have a strong economic outlook for all. No depression please.

[Allon]

32% in 4 months is indicative of hyperdiaperism. Consider the source.

[tsap seui]

It is simply appalling that any American president would step up to bat and demand a level trading ground with America's trading partners. It must really be insulting to the Chinese that America would even hint at an equal and fair trading ground with them.

[Dennis143]

It is simply appalling that any American president would step up to bat and demand a level trading ground with America's trading partners. It must really be insulting to the Chinese that America would even hint at an equal and fair trading ground with them.

I wholeheartedly disagree, Sir. Trump is Making American Great Again. Get over it and get used to it. The people have spoken!