Trump and Kim - North Korea

[Greg.D.]

Delusional

[Randy W]

from the WSJ - more unrequited love. Dated July 8

 

U.S. Remains Ready to Resume Nuclear Talks With North Korea, Envoy Says

• Pyongyang has said it has no interest in talks before U.S. elections in November

 

The two countries haven’t sat down for formal negotiations since October, when North Korea abruptly cut off talks in Stockholm. Since then, Mr. Kim has all but closed the door to diplomacy and ordered his citizens to prepare for a protracted life under economic sanctions. North Korea’s foreign minister last month said U.S. relations had “shifted into despair.”

 

[Allon]

Bolton's book provides a lot of insight to what is really going on under the sheets.

 

First, Bolton feels (and so does Pompeo and a few others, except Mnuchin) that Trump gets too personal with Kim, as he does with other leaders such as Putin. And they work that "charm" against him. Kim came to Hanoi with the surrender offer of its major ballistic missile testing site. (Of course, satellite photos and some Humint says they were planning on blowing up the site in a way that allows them to build it back quickly. And there are other sites Kim would not destroy.)

 

Trump pretty much held out strongly with Kim until he gave in to a reciprocation of stopping testing on ballistic missiles that could reach the US. Of course that would please his base. But would not please Japan or the other countries in the surrounding seas. Abe was furious when Trump gave in to the deal since it did NOT stop Kim from developing intermediate ballistic missiles with nuclear capability. Since that time, Kim has fired off intermediates quite regularly to thumb his nose at Trump for leaving Hanoi without an agreement. Kim wanted those sanctions lifted. When he did not get them, he went to China to beg for food and supplies, and got them. (North Korea's people living in starvation is something of a question to Bolton.) So now there is little left to bargain for if you come in again demanding North Korean denuclearization.

 

Since then and Bolton's anticipated leaving, Trump has tweeted time and again for a number of chips, such as meeting Kim at Panmunjom for a handshake -- which they both did to the horror of Bolton and the other security/State officials, including Mulvaney and Pompeo. But there has been no movement since the Hanoi summit of any import. Trump simply lost the momentum of the deal when he played personalities with Kim, rather playing the realpolitik that Bolton and his national security apparatus wanted. (Hmmm. The Art of the Deal comes to mind....)

 

This whole story that Bolton tells in his book is quite revealing. He not only tells all about Trump's negotiating style and manner, but tells of the weak kneed Mnuchin who did not want stiff sanctions called for by Trump and Bolton (and others, Kudlow, Wilbur Ross). Mnuchin also is really timid when it gets to the subject of tariffs and banking seizures of assets of China and Korea and especially Iran. In fact, one scene got to shouting between Trump and the Treasury Secretary.

 

All in all, Trump is exactly where he complained about previous administrations (read: Obama) -- he defaulted to a bad deal when he wanted to walk away from one and ended up with the status quo, right where he was before, except 12 steps behind.

 

Bolton went up a few notches in my view with this book. He does take some cheap shots now and then being a Republican (really more conservative than Republican -- the two are not the same) at Obama and even Bush 41 and 43 indirectly. But he has a good grasp of the history of the dynamics going on that is quite perceptive and helpful. I wish his writing style was better but it is a deep subject. He does sprinkle some humor but probably over the average farmer's head in Kansas or North Dakota. But that's another book.

[amberjack1234]

Good read Erik. I agreed with everything except for telling Trump's bargaining techniques that might hurt us all in his future dealings, If it had been me I think I might have left that out. Just me.