Trump/Biden/Kissinger and Xi on China

[Randy W]

But, but, but . . . I may be confused, but I THINK the 5 year term is still in effect. I guess we'll find out in 2023. (in the SCMP).

 

Does Xi Jinping really want to be Chinese president for life?

Senior officials insist the term limit was scrapped for consistency, but critics believe Xi is in no rush to put power transition back on the agenda

 

 

Now, the only clause that had prevented Xi Jinping from staying in power beyond 2023 has been removed from the constitution. Although Xi’s real power lies in his two other titles – Communist Party general secretary and Central Military Commission chairman – neither of which have term limits.

 

. . .

 

On the day of the announcement, state-run tabloid Global Times applauded the move but quoted “an authoritative person” as saying that the change did not equate to a lifelong tenure, without elaborating.

Similar articles followed in party mouthpiece People’s Daily, which stressed that the purpose of the amendment was to make the country’s three highest positions – head of the party, the military and the state – consistent.

. . .

“The party made clear our rejection of lifetime tenure [for top leaders] in a resolution passed at the party’s 12th national congress in 1982,” he said, referring to a historic resolution first publicised in 1981.

. . .

It became one of the most important amendments in China’s modern history, explicitly banning “any form of personal cult” and stating that “all major decisions must be decided democratically by the party’s collective leadership”. It also barred “any top leader from acting without consent and imposing his will on the party”.

. . .

The aim of revising the constitution was to bring uniformity to the whole system, he said, and since the president was the only one of the three top roles with term limits, the change was necessary.

“You have to understand how our system works. In China, the constitution has to be in line with the party charter – not the other way round,” he said.

 

[Greg.D.]

I think you counseled me once that he's only just starting his second 5 year term, after all, regardless of changes in the term limit rule. So, I've calmed down since then. And, who's to say now he will do a better or worse job than a person (he could have handpicked) to succeed him?

 

It might end up that Xi is wrong with his plan to guide China back to the party glory days though he has been correctly anticipating the harmful effects of too much lending, too much bad loans, too much cooked books, too many fingers in the pie - but he seems a little too obsessed with leading the world in 10 years or so - something that more or less would have to be accomplished against people's will. Timing seems a little poor with declining workforce but growing retired class.

 

The whole article seems to be a misdirection.

 

Anyway, seems the AI gamble and total thought control plan had better work. I sometimes think the decision to go back to the future was made believing, on someone's assurance, that the masses could be kept under control with (as yet to be perfected) AI, tracking and social media.

[Randy W]

I think you counseled me once that he's only just starting his second 5 year term, after all, regardless of changes in the term limit rule. So, I've calmed down since then. And, who's to say now he will do a better or worse job than a person (he could have handpicked) to succeed him?

 

It might end up that Xi is wrong with his plan to guide China back to the party glory days though he has been correctly anticipating the harmful effects of too much lending, too much bad loans, too much cooked books, too many fingers in the pie - but he seems a little too obsessed with leading the world in 10 years or so - something that more or less would have to be accomplished against people's will. Timing seems a little poor with declining workforce but growing retired class.

 

The whole article seems to be a misdirection.

 

Anyway, seems the AI gamble and total thought control plan had better work. I sometimes think the decision to go back to the future was made believing, on someone's assurance, that the masses could be kept under control with (as yet to be perfected) AI, tracking and social media.

 

 

Well, yes - any mistaken policies he imposes on China and the world will simply be amplified by a third (or more) terms. But his administration DOES seem to have a good handle on the trains of thought which crop up in the social media.

 

Hopefully, any shortcomings will become apparent enough in time to allow a transition of power in 2023. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

“The party made clear our rejection of lifetime tenure [for top leaders] in a resolution passed at the party’s 12th national congress in 1982,” he said, referring to a historic resolution first publicised in 1981.

 

. . .

 

“This is a consensus reached by all party members. Xi Jinping is a firm believer in the rule of law, and his theory of ‘ruling the country through law’ and ‘putting power in the cage of regulations’ has greatly enhanced the understanding of our legal system. In China, we should see the party tradition and party regulations as part of the overall rule of law,” the state prosecutor said.

The aim of revising the constitution was to bring uniformity to the whole system, he said, and since the president was the only one of the three top roles with term limits, the change was necessary.

 

[Randy W]

In the Global Times

 

Trump’s China plan has ulterior motives

Source:Global Times Published: 2018/3/23 23:03:40

 

 

The bumps in China-US relations are a reminder that China's rise will not be smooth, as there will be resistance from the US and other countries. A peaceful rise may not be as easy as we thought.

China should adopt a more relaxed strategy, which means that although China will try to avoid provoking trade frictions with the US, we must rise up to the challenge if the US is determined to loot China's future to nurture itself.

Trump was well prepared before he started the trade attack, as the result of the conflict will affect the mid-term elections and his domestic political credibility. He wants to make himself look like a "hero" capable of taming China.

We believe that China must rebuke him and frustrate his complacency. The US will learn a lesson once Trump's trade war with China ends in failure, which will for a long time deter the US from starting another trade war with China.

Ordinary Americans don't want a trade war with China. Once a trade war escalates and damages the US economy, anti-Trump forces will correct his policies through the ballot box.

China should win over Europe when conflicts break out with the US, and try to isolate the US instead of being isolated. The overall objective is to strike a blow to the Trump administration's reckless trade policy against China, and make Washington think twice whenever it has the urge to act tough against China.

 

 

[Randy W]

Is there enough? I'm still wondering - Where's the Beef ?? from Quartz

 

China is running out of American goods to slap tariffs on

 

Trump has suggested in the past that resolving trade disputes with China is dependent on geopolitical issues such as North Korea and Taiwan. Beijing might well take the same approach. Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un paid a secret visit to Beijing before his potential meeting with Trump, a sign that Beijing is flexing its muscles on the Korean peninsula.

To win a trade war, the Chinese leadership is armed with ammo that Trump could only dream of, such as an autocratic political system united under one man’s indefinite reign in power, and a state-controlled media to rally support for the government. Trump, meanwhile, will have to justify his threats to his constituents as the November mid-term elections draw nearer.

 

 

[Randy W]

In the Global Times

 

China readies to exert ‘maximum pain’ on US

By Wang Cong Source:Global Times Published: 2018/4/7 20:28:39

 

 

"There is no shortage of cards for China to play," said Huo, adding that China could target more US products or raise tariffs on products on a previous list made in response to US tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods.

"Though China has a trade surplus with the US, it can certainly match the $100 billion proposed by Trump," Huo said.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute under the MOFCOM, said that the MOFCOM remarks suggest that China could consider measures beyond tariffs on US goods in many other areas.

"Comprehensive measures mean China will not only look at trade in goods but also services, investment, finance, global governance and others," Bai told the Global Times on Saturday.

Bai said that China could target additional US products such as crude oil, US financial services, and US businesses operating in China.

"The US has a trade deficit with China, but it makes a lot of money through other means and we could do something in those areas," he said.

According to US official data, China was the second largest buyer of US crude oil in 2017 after Canada, importing 20 percent of US total export, and despite the overall trade deficit, the US has a $38 billion surplus in services trade with China.

Meanwhile, US companies sells about $300 billion worth of goods each year in China through their branches, according to media estimates.

Huo also added that China could start selling part of its massive holding in US Treasuries.

"For example, if we sell $200 billion US debts, that would definitely put significant pressure on the US financial market," he said.

 

 

[Randy W]

from the NY Times - Perhaps Trump has figured out that in order for China to reduce the trade deficit, we have to BUY less from them, unless we have have something to SELL TO them.

 

In China, Photo of Trade Talks Embodies ‘Young’ Country Passing Aging U.S.

Social media users noticed a distinct age gap between the Chinese delegates and the American lawmakers who met them in Washington.

 

SHANGHAI — During trade talks in Washington last week, some people in China saw an exorcism of bitter, century-old ghosts.

After Chinese delegates met with American lawmakers on Thursday, a photograph taken from one end of the table circulated on the popular Chinese social media service Weibo. It was shared alongside one from 1901, when representatives from China and colonial powers signed an accord to end the Boxer Rebellion, a violent uprising against foreign influence in China.

. . .

The Trump administration has suspended plans to impose new tariffs, while China has not guaranteed that it will increase purchases of American goods by any specific amount. It also has not committed to curtailing its ambitions to become a technology powerhouse. That might be contributing to the feeling of triumph among Chinese internet users.

 

 

[Randy W]

from Politico and the SCMP - “Business hates uncertainty, any business,”

 

Who’s winning the trade war? Everyone but Trump.

Even as China and the U.S. push toward a trade deal, the long-term trends in global trade are still against American producers.

 

But trade tensions could be the impetus for China to ramp up investments in Brazil, he said.

“In terms of acreage, in terms of production, they’ve got us beat,” he said.

The USDA in its monthly outlook report conceded that Brazil could, for the first time ever, overtake the U.S. in soybean production this coming year. The South American country has already surpassed the U.S. as the supplier of choice in China, supplying 51 percent of the Asian country’s market last year while the U.S. filled roughly 35 percent of China’s demand, according to USDA data.

Any further losses in market share could have devastating effects on U.S. farmers, who saw 61 percent of their total exports go to China last year, amounting to $14 billion worth of shipments. Farm incomes are already at their lowest point since 2009 and are expected to stay stagnant for the remainder of 2018.

Economists say that situation could worsen if the threat of tariffs continues through the summer and, as the U.S. harvest nears, Chinese buyers grow even more reluctant to import the commodity only to have a duty imposed while the shipment is out to sea.

 

 

[eseum]

And this morning there is a report that the U.S. is launching "a national security investigation into car and truck imports that could lead to new U.S. tariffs similar to those imposed on imported steel and aluminum in March."

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-auto-probe-china-tariffs_us_5b067d30e4b07c4ea105063a

 

From the article:

 

The governments of Japan, China and South Korea said they would monitor the situation, while Beijing, which is increasingly eyeing the United States as a potential market for its cars, added that it would defend its interests.

“China opposes the abuse of national security clauses, which will seriously damage multilateral trade systems and disrupt normal international trade order,” Gao Feng, spokesman at the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular news briefing on Thursday which focused largely on whether Beijing and Washington are making any progress in their growing trade dispute. “We will closely monitor the situation under the U.S. probe and fully evaluate the possible impact and resolutely defend our own legitimate interests.”

 

 

[Greg.D.]

A good article the U.S. - China relationship, suggesting the U.S. is doing one thing right and two things wrong.

Doing right:

Identifying areas of strategic concern from China, and planning mitigating or counter measures.

Doing wrong:

Blowing up the trade relationship , and

Public ultimatums that, if they are the basis of some compromise, would be seen as capitulation and humiliation; I.e. the wrong way to get what you want.

America Is Fumbling Its Most Important Relationship

The United States has a China problem—and pundits and politicians are making it worse.

Edited June 1, 2018 by Greg.D. (see edit history)

[True Blue]

God bless the US Government! In the words of President Ronald Reagan (which are still true today)

 

Edited June 2, 2018 by True Blue (see edit history)

[Randy W]

 

A good article the U.S. - China relationship, suggesting the U.S. is doing one thing right and two things wrong.

Doing right:

Identifying areas of strategic concern from China, and planning mitigating or counter measures.

Doing wrong:

Blowing up the trade relationship , and

Public ultimatums that, if they are the basis of some compromise, would be seen as capitulation and humiliation; I.e. the wrong way to get what you want.

America Is Fumbling Its Most Important Relationship

The United States has a China problem—and pundits and politicians are making it worse.

 

 

 

This paragraph seems to pretty well sum it up

 

The factor added since then is the Chinese leadership’s sizing up of Donald Trump. They appear to view him as someone they can flatter (with a lavish welcome in Beijing, and the pretense that Xi Jinping is Trump’s “close friend”), can out-bargain (as with Farm Belt tariffs aimed straight at Trump’s political base), and can potentially buy off (as with a recent deal favoring a Trump property in Indonesia).

 

[True Blue]

Here is an important video of President Trump talking about China.

 

[Randy W]

from the SCMP

 

 

US-China trade war begins as Beijing vows to strike back against tariffs on US$34 billion worth of Chinese goods

Now that the first shots have been fired, what goods will be affected, who will pay the price and what could happen next?

 

On Friday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said China will fight back against the US and report to the World Trade Organisation.

The remarks were in response to Washington’s decision to impose 25 per cent duties on a similar amount of Chinese imports, which also came into effect on Friday.

US President Donald Trump had threatened to target another US$400 billion in Chinese products with tariffs if Beijing continued to hit back.

On top of that, each country has prepared a second tariff list of goods worth about US$16 billion. The effective dates are pending as the office of the US trade representative is in the midst of a public comment period on its list.

 

 

China Pictorial on Facrbook - https://www.facebook.com/ChinaPic/photos/a.558235270968533.1073741830.553929144732479/1614280995363950/?type=3&theater

 

China Pictorial

Page Liked · 3 mins ·

Ministry: US tariffs set to backfire
The threatened tariffs on goods from China will backfire on the United States if they take effect on July 6, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday.
Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said about 59 percent of the $34 billion imports subject to US tariffs are produced by foreign-invested enterprises in China.
“If the list takes effect, the US will actually impose tariffs on both Chinese and foreign companies, including US ones,” Gao said. “The US is firing at not only the world, but also itself.”
Gao reiterated China is not eager to engage in a trade war, but will do so to firmly defend the interests of the country and its people.
The General Administration of Customs said on the same day China will levy tariffs on US goods, as soon as US' tariffs are in force.
Source: China Daily

 

[Randy W]

Hong Kong has a "special" place in all this . . . in the SCMP

 

How special is Hong Kong’s SAR status amid the US-China trade war?

Caught between Washington and Beijing, the city is now in a difficult position with its reputation as a beacon of free trade challenged by the row

 

 

Having embraced the value of free trade for decades and facing the fact that it is being affected – though at an estimated cost of only 0.1 to 0.2 per cent of gross domestic product at this stage – uncertainties remain and Hong Kong is bound to oppose the tariffs, which Beijing sees as a war waged by the US against the global free-trade system.

Another reality is that Hong Kong is part of China and has a role in the country’s development, including its technological progress. The city was recently instructed by President Xi Jinping to aim to become a hi-tech research centre in the ambitious “Greater Bay Area” blueprint.

But being in charge of a “world city” that takes pride in its rule of law, the local government also hopes Washington will bear in mind that Hong Kong is an “independent economic entity” with long-time and good business ties with the US.