Trump/Biden/Kissinger and Xi on China

[Randy W]

Biden has since dropped Trump's ban on the Chinese apps - see http://candleforlove.com/forums/topic/50134-wechat-closing/?do=findComment&comment=647304

The White House sees its China policy as resting on three pillars: strengthening the U.S. economy and democracy, rebuilding ties with allies that frayed under Mr. Trump, and defining areas of confrontation and cooperation with China.

Biden’s China Policy Is Emerging—and It Looks a Lot Like Trump’s
Recent moves on Chinese apps, investments build on former president’s actions, though by different means

from the WSJ

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WASHINGTON—President Biden’s policy toward China came into sharper focus over the past week, with initiatives that suggest the president plans to retain his predecessor’s tough stance toward Beijing, despite differences in execution.

The administration revamped on Tuesday President Donald Trump’s attempt to crack down on Chinese apps, including TikTok, just days after adding more Chinese companies to a Trump-era U.S. investment blacklist.

The administration also said this week that it is launching trade and investment talks with Taiwan—an irritation for Beijing, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province.

Administration officials acknowledge that, overall, the recent steps build on actions taken by Mr. Trump. In the case of the investment blacklist and the orders affecting TikTok and other apps, they say, the Biden White House is aiming to make the measures more enforceable.

“The Biden administration is saying, ‘We think some of the work the Trump administration was doing was essential,’” said a senior administration official. “But they were done in a way that wasn’t necessarily sound and wasn’t built on a framework that could be broadened to include allies and partners.”

The recent moves come after months of internal White House deliberation about how to deal with China, which was the focus of Mr. Trump’s foreign policy.

The administration has many issues to tackle. One is how to deal with billions of dollars in tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on Chinese goods, which are paid by U.S. businesses that import them.

Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said Mr. Biden’s moves amount to putting a more professional touch on Mr. Trump’s actions, such as making the China investment blacklist stronger against legal challenges.

“Editing someone else’s work is easier than doing your own,” he said. “That’s what they are doing. Their own work is aimless still.”

Others fear the emerging approach could backfire.

“Trying to isolate China, it’s not going to go over well with most of the world,” said Brookings Institution China expert David Dollar, referring to intertwined economies with Beijing. “I think it’s a self-defeating strategy. They should be leaning more on the cooperation side.”

The White House sees its China policy as resting on three pillars: strengthening the U.S. economy and democracy, rebuilding ties with allies that frayed under Mr. Trump, and defining areas of confrontation and cooperation with China.

The third is a work in progress, the senior official said, adding that it has “taken the most time to develop.”

Still, the administration has started to define those areas—and one is Taiwan.

The Trump administration sidestepped trade negotiations with Taiwan to focus on China. Mr. Biden, along with resuming trade talks with the democratically self-ruled island, issued statements after summits with Japanese and South Korean leaders that discussed ensuring stability in the Taiwan Strait.

“There’s a continued effort by the U.S. to make clear that if Beijing had any doubts about this administration’s commitment [to Taiwan], it should think again,” the senior official said.

Some of Taiwan’s supporters in Congress want the U.S. to go further and sign a bilateral trade agreement with Taipei. The senior administration official said the administration hadn’t made a decision on that.

The administration has looked for a few areas in which to cooperate with China, most prominently on climate change. And in recent weeks, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have spoken with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, but they waited months before holding the first call.

Trade “doesn’t fall neatly into one category or the other,” said the senior official. “We have concerns about coercive trade practices. The space for cooperation might be smaller than we would otherwise like.”

In a statement, Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said the U.S. should seek to “view China in an objective and rational light, and do more to promote China-U.S. mutual trust and cooperation and improve bilateral ties, instead of the opposite.”

Mr. Biden also this week received a far-reaching report intended to lessen the U.S. supply chain’s reliance on China and he began a trip to Europe with a goal of marshaling allies in confrontation with Beijing, which was angered to see the American president elevate a theory that the Covid-19 pandemic was the result of a Chinese lab accident.

Mr. Biden has long experience with China. Decades ago, he helped welcome China onto the global stage. Later, as vice president, he was tasked by President Barack Obama to improve ties with China.

How he handles the current challenge, which he has framed as a battle between democracy and autocracy, could emerge as one of the biggest tests of his presidency.

“It’s shaping up to be a much more comprehensive China policy, but will it actually work to change China’s policy? I’m not so sure,” said Allison Sherlock, a China analyst at the consulting firm Eurasia Group.

“Beijing is increasingly confident and assertive, which is going to prevent meaningful engagement on the most sensitive issues, namely human rights and security,” she said. “The best the Biden administration can hope for is bringing China to the table on issues of mutual interest like economic cooperation and climate.”

 

 

[Randy W]

China called the U.S. "very sick" after G-7 leaders and NATO nations jointly criticized core Chinese policy under President Xi Jinping as damaging to military stability, human rights, international trade and global health..

from the WSJ on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/8304333127/posts/10161164470108128/

Back-to-Back Rebukes of China Mark a Turning Point
Criticism from G-7 and NATO members represent a shift toward collective action to confront Beijing

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Major democracies rallied together this week to issue extraordinary back-to-back rebukes of Beijing, marking a shift toward collective action and pushing back against President Xi Jinping’s strategies to position China as a global leader.

Over two consecutive days, Group of Seven leaders and North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations jointly criticized core Chinese policy under Mr. Xi as damaging to military stability, human rights, international trade and global health. NATO members vowed Monday to counter “systemic challenges to the rules-based international order” posed by China.

A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the statements as the misguided work of “small circles” and primarily the U.S. Speaking at a regular briefing on Tuesday, spokesman Zhao Lijian said, “The U.S. is sick, and it’s very sick. The G-7 should check America’s pulse and prescribe drugs for it.”

The one-two punch of public criticism smacks directly into Mr. Xi’s assertion that China won’t stand for lecturing by other nations, suggesting anxiety in key capitals is prompting governments to seek alignment with the U.S. over attempting to manage the relationship with Beijing on their own.

“China’s behavior changed the risk calculus,” said Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown University professor. “A very significant geopolitical threshold has been crossed.”

The broadsides from the G-7 and NATO aren’t likely by themselves to undermine Mr. Xi’s powerful standing in China, said Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. As criticism builds against Mr. Xi in major nations, the question for China’s leadership is how much it values its international standing. In Beijing, Mr. Hass added, “It could open the aperture on the question of, are we on the right track?”

China frames criticism of its policies as U.S.-led Cold War thinking, with its diplomats confidently asserting that the East is rising and the West is in decline. Hours after the G-7 event concluded, China’s embassy in the U.K., where the summit was held, issued a point-by-point denunciation of the communiqué as distorted and slanderous.

Discontent about China has built for some time among democratic nations that are concerned about its detention of Muslim Uyghurs, undoing of freedoms in Hong Kong, coercive trade practices and military provocations against the democratic island Taiwan, and all were highlighted in the G-7’s statement. The grouping of the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Japan also expressed concern that Beijing has lacked transparency on Covid-19, while touching generally on treatment of prisoners, internet censorship and other features of Mr. Xi’s strongman rule.

China considers each issue its own business and in its embassy retort said the G-7 “arbitrarily interfered in China’s internal affairs.”

. . .

Mr. Xi hardly needs problems with the international community, which supplies investment and creates jobs, as well as buys its exports. . . .

And the party’s 100th anniversary celebration is a prelude to Mr. Xi’s expected bid for a third term late next year.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2021 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

Talks between China's vice foreign minister Xie Feng  and US deputy secretary of state #Sherman is ON...
Xie Feng: the China-#US relationship is in a stalemate, fundamentally because some Americans portray #China as an "imagined enemy"...the competitive, collaborative and adversarial rhetoric is a thinly veiled attempt to contain & suppress China, the US side's so-called "rules-based international order" is designed to benefit itself at others' expense hold other countries back and introduce"the law of the jungle" ... How can the #US portray itself as the world's spokesperson for democracy and #HumanRights ?
adding western surveys have shown that over 90% of Chinese are satisfied with the government, which is quite remarkable for any country in the world.

from Serena Dong, CGTN
https://www.facebook.com/theserenadong/posts/341151764326264

[Randy W]

“Mexico is the New China” and Manufacturers are Moving There

from the Harris Bricken Law Firm China Law Blog

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But, all I know is that in the last two weeks my law firm has had more companies come to us seeking help to move their manufacturing from China to Mexico than we have had in any six month period.

 . . .

Not only are we getting foreign companies looking to move their manufacturing from China to Mexico, we are getting many Chinese companies contacting us for the same reasons — it does not hurt that our lead Mexico manufacturing lawyer is perhaps the only lawyer in Mexico fluent in Chinese and with a law degree from both a Mexican and Chinese law school.

So something is happening out there and it is not really any one thing, it is a combination of the below:

1. China is getting more difficult and expensive. COVID is a big factor in this, but just one of many.

2. China’s government is getting more oppressive and this wears on people and it puts the reputations of their companies at risk. See Will Your Business in/with China Hurt Your Business Reputation Outside China? See Negative views of China continue to dominate its international image, survey finds.

3. China is threatening to sanction foreign companies that abide by their own country’s laws regarding China. What U.S. businesses should know about China’s anti-foreign sanctions law. Or, as one of our client’s recently put it, “we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t.”

4. Shipping costs. See Shipping Delays and Higher Rates Get Small Businesses Jammed Up. As one client put it, “I realize these super-high shipping costs will not last forever, but nobody knows how long they will last and I am just sick of the uncertainty. Getting my products into the U.S. from Mexico will always cost way less than from China and will never fluctuate nearly as much.

5. Overall costs of doing business with China.

6. COVID-19, and China’s total lockdowns and blocking foreigners from entering into China.

7. China risks. Two years ago, In The Top 14 China Wild Cards/Future Risks, we listed out what we saw as the top 14 China risks. It is downright scary how many of those are indisputably a reality now and how there are some — like China’s crackdown on tech and on other private businesses — that we did not even write about. Mexico is not without risks, but it has become a far less risky country in which to manufacture than China. Just read the news.

 

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

【#HuSays】The rapid deterioration of Sino-US relations and US’all-out pressure on China as its No. 1 strategic adversary has triggered a sense of urgency among many Chinese to accelerate efforts to improve our nuclear deterrence: Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin

https://www.facebook.com/globaltimesnews/posts/4315886991825501

[Randy W]

Xi-Biden call: China leader calls for courage to get ties back on track
‘Candid and in-depth discussion’ leads to agreement to step up communications at various levels
The US president made clear the conversation was part of Washington’s efforts to ‘responsibly manage’ their competition

 

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White House officials said US President Joe Biden initiated the 90-minute call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and the talks focused on the way forward for the troubled bilateral relationship.
Both countries said Xi called for courage to put China-US ties back on track, because confrontation would mean only suffering for the world.
It was the first phone call between Xi and Biden since February.

 . . .

Lu Xiang, a research fellow in US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the US president’s initiation of the call showed the urgency the White House faced in engaging China under pressure from the American business community.

 

 

[Randy W]

Although the momentum seems to be toward a third term for Xi Jinping, I think there are still reasons why it may not happen. Chris Chappell talks about some of the internal politics.

 

[Randy W]

Xi Hasn’t Left China in 21 Months. Covid May Be Only Part of the Reason.
Xi Jinping’s lack of face time with world leaders signals a turn inward on domestic issues and a reluctance to compromise on the global stage.

from the NY Times

A Beijing neighborhood under lockdown. Covid-19 is the ostensible reason Mr. Xi hasn’t traveled abroad in nearly two years, though officials have not explicitly said so.Credit...EPA, via Shutterstock

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China, under Mr. Xi, no longer feels compelled to cooperate — or at least be seen as cooperating — with the United States and its allies on anything other than its own terms.

Still, Mr. Xi’s recent absence from the global stage has complicated China’s ambition to position itself as an alternative to American leadership. And it has coincided with, some say contributed to, a sharp deterioration in the country’s relations with much of the rest of the world.

Instead, China has turned inward, with officials preoccupied with protecting Mr. Xi’s health and internal political machinations, including a Communist Party congress next year where he is expected to claim another five years as the country’s leader. As a result, face-to-face diplomacy is a lower priority than it was in Mr. Xi’s first years in office.

“There is a bunker mentality in China right now,” said Noah Barkin, who follows China for the research firm Rhodium Group.

Mr. Xi’s retreat has deprived him of the chance to personally counter a steady decline in the country’s reputation, even as it faces rising tensions on trade, Taiwan and other issues.

Less than a year ago, Mr. Xi made concessions to seal an investment agreement with the European Union, partly to blunt the United States, only to have the deal scuttled by frictions over political sanctions. Since then, Beijing has not taken up an invitation for Mr. Xi to meet E.U. leaders in Europe this year.

 . . .

Mr. Xi’s government has not abandoned diplomacy. China, along with Russia, has taken a leading role in negotiating with the Taliban after its return to power in Afghanistan. Mr. Xi has also held several conference calls with European leaders, including Germany’s departing chancellor, Angela Merkel; and, this week, President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, will attend the meetings in Rome, and Mr. Xi will dial in and deliver what a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hua Chunying, said on Friday would be an “important speech.”

 . . .

Mr. Xi has made his mark on the world by jettisoning the idea that China should be a modest player on the international stage — “hiding our strength and biding our time,” in the dictum of his predecessor Deng Xiaoping. Now, though, he finds himself trying to project China’s new image of confident ambition over video meetings.

He is doing so while facing international scrutiny over many of China’s policies, the origins of the coronavirus, mounting rights abuses in Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang, and its increasingly ominous warnings to Taiwan.

Surveys have shown that views of China have deteriorated sharply in many major countries over the last two years.

Victor Shih, professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, said that Mr. Xi’s limited travel coincided with an increasingly nationalist tone at home that seems to preclude significant cooperation or compromise.

“He no longer feels that he needs international support because he has so much domestic support, or domestic control,” Mr. Shih said. “This general effort to court America and also the European countries is less today than it was during his first term.”

 

 

[Randy W]

The People's Liberation Army expressed its strong dissatisfaction and opposition against the #US' hyping up the so-called Chinese military threat in its annual Pentagon report on the Chinese military, #China's Defense  Ministry said on Friday night. #PLA  https://bit.ly/3CPmf2X

"We want to solemnly warn the US that any attempt to bully China or interfere in its domestic affairs will have their heads busted open against the iron great wall of the PLA," he added.

from China Daily on Facebook 
https://www.facebook.com/chinadaily/photos/a.195840701290/10159836980511291

PLA criticizes US for hyping 'Chinese military threat'

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Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman of the ministry, said the report published by the US Department of Defense on Thursday is full of biases and has made baseless accusations on China's nuclear force development, interfered with China's domestic affairs on multiple topics, such as the Taiwan question.

For more than two decades, the US has been concocting this kind of report year after year, "this is a blatant act of hegemony", said Wu.

"We want to solemnly warn the US that any attempt to bully China or interfere in its domestic affairs will have their heads busted open against the iron great wall of the PLA," he added.

China resolutely upholds a national defense policy that is defensive in nature, and has adopted an active-defense military strategy. "China's military development is completely for safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests," he said.

"It is for crushing any ploy to undermine regional peace, stability and prosperity. It does not target any country nor will it pose a threat to any other country," he said.

The Chinese military has proactively supported building a community with a shared future for mankind, he said. It has participated in peacekeeping, escort missions, anti-COVID-19 efforts, humanitarian aid and rescue, as well as other endeavors to support public security for the international community.

 

 

Edited November 6, 2021 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

China-US relations: Blinken says Beijing is bringing more aggression to competitive and cooperative ties

• US secretary of state says relationship is growing increasingly adversarial because ‘this is in many ways a different China on the world stage’
• But he acknowledges Washington’s own rejection of multilateralism in recent years has allowed Beijing to take a more prominent global role

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a virtual discussion on Monday that US rejection of multilateralism in recent years aided China’s rising prominence on the world stage. Photo: AFP
 

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During a virtual discussion hosted by the Ahavath Achim Synagogue in Atlanta, Blinken reiterated that there were both competitive and cooperative components to the China policy that United States President Joe Biden’s administration had adopted in its first year.
“But we see increasingly, as well, adversarial aspects to this,” Blinken said. “And that is in large part because … this is in many ways a different China on the world stage over the last few years than we’ve seen in the last few decades: much more assertive, much more aggressive, whether it’s in the region or beyond.”

 

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2022 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

An interesting conversation, but nothing really new. The interviewee seems to have a  very good grasp of the situation.

How can China and US stop stumbling towards war? David Shambaugh on . . .
China and the United States are locked in a geopolitical struggle that shows no sign of easing. American political science professor and leading China scholar David Shambaugh has been analysing China’s moves for the last four decades. In the latest episode of Talking Post, the author of new book, China’s Leaders: From Mao to Now, speaks to SCMP chief news editor Yonden Lhatoo about the threat of war, China’s Communist Party and more.

from the SCMP on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/scmp/videos/398759045383353/

Edited February 12, 2022 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

The U.S. met with China over three months to present intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup near Ukraine and to urge Beijing to help avert war, U.S. officials said.

Chinese officials rebuffed the U.S. and shared the information with Moscow.

from the NY Times on Facebook 
https://www.facebook.com/nytimes/posts/10152879296379999

U.S. Officials Repeatedly Urged China to Help Avert War in Ukraine
Americans presented Chinese officials with intelligence on Russia’s troop buildup in hopes that President Xi Jinping would step in, but were repeatedly rebuffed.

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Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said.

The previously unreported talks between American and Chinese officials show how the Biden administration tried to use intelligence findings and diplomacy to persuade a superpower it views as a growing adversary to stop the invasion of Ukraine, and how that nation, led by President Xi Jinping, persistently sided with Russia even as the evidence of Moscow’s plans for a military offensive grew over the winter.

 

 

 

[Randy W]

I think China is getting a fairly strong message about what ,ight happen if they invade Taiwan, even if we don't intervene.

Biden tells China's Xi of the implications of assisting Russia in call, official says

Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with then-U.S Vice President Joe Biden inside the Great Hall of the People on December 4, 2013, in Beijing.

Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

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President Biden described the implications for Beijing if it decides to provide assistance to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a nearly two-hour phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a senior White House official told reporters.

The official called the conversation "direct," "substantive," "detailed" and "candid," but would not describe what those implications were.

"I'm not going to publicly lay out our options from here," the official said. "This was really about President Biden being able to lay out very clearly in substantial detail with a lot of facts ... walking President Xi through the situation."

The official declined to describe President Xi's reaction to the discussion.

The call largely focused on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the implications for the U.S.-China relationship and international order, the official said.

Biden reportedly shared a detailed review of how things have developed and underscored his support for diplomatic resolution while emphasizing U.S. concerns about Russian disinformation about biological weapons and concerns about echoing that disinformation.

Asked whether Biden asked Xi to intercede with Putin, the official said that "the president wasn't really making specific requests of China."

"Our view is that China will make its own decisions," the official said.

While the call focused on Russia and Ukraine, Xi raised Taiwan, the official said. Biden restated the longstanding U.S. position on the self-governed territory, which China claims.

The official said that the leaders assigned their teams to follow up on the conversation in days and weeks ahead.

 

 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

It would seem to me that "strategic ambiguity" MEANS being unclear. The west takes talk of miilitary action VERY seriously.

Joe Biden’s comments on US defending Taiwan could cause missteps, analysts say

• The US president’s assertion that America would be willing to get involved militarily to defend the self-governing island appears to erode long-standing strategic ambiguity
• Some China watchers say the commander-in-chief’s string of unclear statements on the matter could heighten uncertainty, confusing Beijing and others in the region

from the SCMP

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And like those other statements, it was subsequently walked back by White House officials asserting that long-standing policy had not changed.

“I’m not sure China has much confidence that the US has a one-China policy. What they’re seeing is increasingly unclear US statements on Taiwan,” said Bonnie Glaser, Asia director with the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

 . . .

This is a delicate time for China and President Xi Jinping. This auntumn, Xi is expected to be tapped for an unprecedented third term at the Communist Party’s national congress. The party’s zero-Covid strategy is facing strong domestic pushback as the pandemic spreads. And China’s economy is struggling as supply chains fray and costs rise globally.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and Beijing’s support for Moscow – has also created foreign policy headaches for China as it walks a fine line between its erstwhile Soviet brother and Western markets.

“I’m concerned about the possibility of Xi Jinping believing he has to do something because he looks weak,” Glaser added. “Chinese politics are especially opaque right now … This is not a good time to back him into a corner.”

 . . .

As for China, its options may be limited, analysts said, at least in the short term. Military experts believe Beijing has been taken aback by Moscow’s many missteps in Ukraine and is likely to delay any planned invasion of Taiwan – which it views as a renegade province to be reunited by force if necessary – until it further reforms the People’s Liberation Army.
That could leave Beijing with little immediate recourse other than intensifying the rhetoric.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

Embrace of NATO in China’s Back Yard Stokes Xi’s Worst Fears

from Bloomberg via Yahoo news

Ever since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, China has blamed NATO for antagonizing Russia and accused the US of seeking to set up a similar alliance in the Asia-Pacific. The presence of four leaders from the region in Spain this week will only make Beijing more paranoid.
 

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For the first time, the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand will all attend a summit of the 30-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization. At the meeting starting Tuesday in Madrid, the alliance is set to label China a “systemic challenge” in new policy guidelines for the coming decade, reflecting shifts in the geopolitical landscape as President Xi Jinping increasingly joins hands with Putin in opposition to the world’s democracies.

While the US has dismissed the idea that an Asia-Pacific NATO is in the works, the Biden administration has strengthened ties with partners in the region to both push back against China’s assertiveness over disputed territory and sanction key officials over alleged human-rights abuses in places like Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Fears are also growing that Xi will look to invade Taiwan in the coming years, potentially triggering a wider war in Asia.