China (and others) on North Korea

[chilton747]

I hope so. I had rather visit one of their beaches than eat one of their nukes for breakfast. BUT IT HAN'T HAPPENE YET. DON'T COUNT THE CHICKENS 'TILL THEY HATCH.

Dats rite. We'll see

[Randy W]

Counting the chickens . . . from the NY Times

 

In North Korea, Missile Bases Suggest a Great Deception

 

 

North Korea is moving ahead with its ballistic missile program at 16 hidden bases that have been identified in new commercial satellite images, a network long known to American intelligence agencies but left undiscussed as President Trump claims to have neutralized the North’s nuclear threat.

The satellite images suggest that the North has been engaged in a great deception: It has offered to dismantle a major launching site — a step it began, then halted — while continuing to make improvements at more than a dozen others that would bolster launches of conventional and nuclear warheads.

. . .

But American intelligence officials say that the North’s production of nuclear material, of new nuclear weapons and of missiles that can be placed on mobile launchers and hidden in mountains at the secret bases has continued.

And the sanctions are collapsing, in part because North Korea has leveraged its new, softer-sounding relationship with Washington, and its stated commitment to eventual denuclearization, to resume trade with Russia and China.

. . .

But because of a series of budget and bureaucratic disputes, the early warning system, begun by the Obama administration and handed off to the Trump administration, has yet to go into operation.

. . .

Since the initial meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim, on June 12 in Singapore, the North has yet to take the first step toward denuclearization: providing the United States with a list of its nuclear sites, weapons, production facilities and missile bases. North Korean officials have told Mr. Pompeo that would amount to giving him a “target list.”

 

[Randy W]

Kim's New Year's speech from the SCMP

 

 

Kim Jong-un New Year speech: ‘no choice but to consider a new path if US doesn’t keep its promises’

• The North Korean leader gave his annual address on Tuesday, setting the tone for domestic, inter-Korean and foreign policy amid stalled nuclear talks with the United States

 

“If the US does not keep its promise made in front of the whole world,” Kim said, “we may be Left with no choice but to consider a new way to safeguard our sovereignty and interests.”

 

. . .

 

North Korea has said it has done all it should do to show sincerity in holding up its own side of the agreement. It said it has closed its nuclear weapons test site, started dismantling the Sohae long-range missile engine test stand and launch platform, and has expressed a willingness to permanently dismantle its main nuclear facilities in Yongbyon should the US take corresponding steps.

While calling for sanctions relief and a declaration of intent by the US to end the Korean war, Pyongyang has condemned the US as “gangster-like”. Washington has said it will maintain sanctions until the “final, fully verified denuclearisation” of the North.

. . . and a good assessment of the stalemate from last month

A second Donald Trump-Kim Jong-un summit? They don’t even agree on what the first one meant

• Donald Kirk says North Korea and the US may not agree on what ‘denuclearise’ means, but is there harm in meeting again? The answer is yes, actually, if these summits give the impression that diplomacy has been tried and did not work

Actually, a reality check may be in order. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York and a former senior diplomat in the US State Department, warns that “summitry diplomacy can be a source of friction if it is not a source of clarity”. That’s a comment more on the outcome of Trump’s summit with Kim in Singapore in June than on Moon’s three meetings with Kim.

Trump may think he reached a real deal with Kim at their Singapore summit, but their joint statement on “denuclearisation” of the Korean peninsula had no real meaning. “North Korea has little or no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons,” as Haass noted at a symposium that I attended in Washington. “It is unlikely the problem will be resolved.”

If that’s the case, what’s the harm of the two leaders at least sitting down and talking things over? A burst of “flowery” language, in Haass’s view, may do more harm than good. “I don’t want people to say we tried diplomacy and failed,” said Haass. “Talking can become a cover that gives the impression of progress.”

 

 

[Randy W]

Another FREE Consultation

 

from CNN

 

China hosts surprise visit by Kim Jong Un amid US tensions

 

seen in Beijing

 

In a report Tuesday, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Kim left Pyongyang Monday afternoon with his wife Ri Sol Ju. He was also accompanied by key diplomats, KCNA added, including Kim Yong Chol, who has overseen negotiations with the US and other foreign countries.

. . .

"Kim is eager to remind the Trump Administration that he does have diplomatic and economic options besides what Washington and Seoul can offer," Kazianis said. "China could easily turn Trump's 'maximum pressure' strategy into nothing more than a memory as almost all North Korea's external trade flows through China in some capacity."

He added that the timing from China's perspective "could not be any better," as it comes amid trade talks with the US and "shows Beijing clearly has a North Korea card to play if it sees fit."

"He was warmly seen off by leading officials of the Party, government and armed forces organs at the railway station," the news agency said.

 

 

[Randy W]

from the People's Daily on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/PeoplesDaily/posts/2267895493262255

 

People's Daily, China added 4 new photos.

9 hrs ·

Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un hold talks, reaching important consensus

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Chinese president, on Tuesday held talks with Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), who arrived in Beijing on the same day for a visit to China.

In a cordial and friendly atmosphere, the two leaders had an in-depth exchange of views on #China-#DPRK relations and issues of common concern, and reached important consensus.

The two sides agreed to make joint efforts to push for continuous new development of China-DPRK relations in the new era, constantly advance the political settlement process of the Korean Peninsula issue, bring more benefits to people of the two countries, and make positive contribution to peace, stability, prosperity and development of the region and the world. (Xinhua)

 

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/PeoplesDaily/posts/2267895493262255

[Randy W]

from the SCMP

 

What Xi Jinping attending North Korean pop concert signals to Donald Trump

• Appearance at first such North Korean shows in Beijing for several years allows Chinese president to send message to Washington, analysts say
• Songs from China and North Korea are included, representing ‘deep feelings’ of North’s leader Kim Jong-un

 

 

 

 

“Beijing doesn’t control Pyongyang as some think, but it is certainly Pyongyang’s chief enabler and backstop,” King said. “With Xi in his corner, Kim will feel emboldened and drive a much harder bargain with Trump.”

King said the issues at stake for Beijing at that summit could include the US’ suspension of its joint military exercises with South Korea and its military presence in the region.

“[in return] Xi will be hoping for an even greater windfall [at the second Trump-Kim summit], such as an extension of said suspension and/or even partial withdrawals of US troops from South Korea and/or regional US strategic assets.”

James Floyd Downes, a lecturer in comparative politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said it was not a coincidence for Xi to attend the event.

“Attending is a direct example of ‘soft’ power and demonstrates to Washington the increasingly close ties that the Beijing government is seeking with North Korea and Kim,” he said.

“Such power plays will make it increasingly difficult for the Trump administration to make meaningful progress in negotiations with Pyongyang.”

 

 

[Randy W]

United Korean Peninsula at the Olympics?

 

DPRK, ROK present plans for joint bid for 2032 Olympic Games

 

CGTN

Published on Feb 15, 2019

 

[Randy W]

the slow train through China . . .

 

from China Daily

 

Sources: Kim to take train to Hanoi, summit at govt guesthouse

 

It could take Kim at least two and a half days to travel the thousands of kilometers through China by train, from the DPRK capital of Pyongyang to Vietnam, meaning he would have to set off later this week in time for his planned Feb 25 arrival.

 

Kim's train will stop at the Vietnamese border station of Dong Dang, where he will disembark and drive 170 km to Hanoi by car, the sources said.

Separately, three other sources with direct knowledge of the summit preparations told Reuters the preferred location for the Feb 27-28 meeting between Trump and Kim is the Government Guesthouse, a colonial-era government building in central Hanoi.

 

[Randy W]

It's the crowd size that matters, Kim . . .

 

China Daily

4 hrs ·

Kim Jong-un, top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), left Pyongyang Saturday afternoon by train for Vietnamese capital Hanoi for the second DPRK-US summit.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/chinadaily/posts/10157048886086291/

[Randy W]

Because he didn't want to be seen "waving his hand in front of China’s national flag on a Chinese plane as he did at the Singapore airport"

 

from the NY Times

 

Traveling to Meet Trump, Kim Jong-un Takes the Long Route

 

Until Mr. Kim arrived in the Chinese border city of Dandong late Saturday, Chinese analysts doubted that the North Korean leader would bring his own train across China. The security demands would entail too much upheaval to the regular schedules for China’s vast fleet of heavily used high-speed trains, they said.

But China is clearly willing to make the sacrifice, said Yun Sun, an analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington.

. . .

In a sign of the rivalry between China and its southern neighbor, Vietnam has deliberately continued to use different spacing on its railroad tracks, which in the past made it more difficult for China to invade, Mr. Cheng said.

So Mr. Kim will have to leave his train at the border with Vietnam. He will travel the last 105 miles or so to Hanoi by road, Vietnamese officials say, a winding route through low mountains.

Before meeting Mr. Trump, Mr. Kim is planning talks with leaders of Vietnam’s Communist Party during what is being billed as a state visit, similar to the one made by his grandfather.

 

[Randy W]

No deal!

 

 

Stern looks: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump at their summit in Hanoi. Photo: AFP

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/scmp/videos/2301321476554988/

Edited February 28, 2019 by Randy W (see edit history)

[Randy W]

A little side-bar to the Hanoi summit regarding China

 

China tries to forget, but its war with Vietnam ended with a US victory. Just look at Trump

• The 40th anniversary of the Sino-Vietnamese war is passing largely unnoticed in China, where all commemorative activity has been banned
• But Vietnam bitterly recalls the conflict that tore two ideological allies apart – and sent Hanoi into American arms

Back then Beijing made no secret of its motivation to teach an “ungrateful” former ally a lesson, after Hanoi apparently switched its alliance to the Soviet Union by signing the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with China’s chief rival at the time in November 1978.

 

The Sino-Vietnamese war was also widely thought of as an effort to stop Hanoi’s campaign to oust the China-backed Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia, which had taken the form of an invasion of Phnom Penh.

If so, the Chinese campaign was somewhere between pointless and a complete failure, as it failed to achieve either goal. Vietnamese troops remained in Cambodia until the late 1980s, while Beijing-backed Pol Pot was ousted and the rebels were forced to retreat to Cambodia’s remote western region. Hanoi went on to forge an even closer alliance with Moscow as a result of China’s invasion. Nevertheless, the war had a lasting impact not only on the two countries’ relationship, but also on China’s relations with China’s neighbours. It reshaped geopolitics in the region, and its legacy endures today.

 

. . .

 

The Sino-Vietnamese war undermined China’s image as a peace-loving nation and raised suspicions about the non-hegemonic diplomacy it had long claimed to have.

 

. . .

 

Hanoi’s diplomatic relations with Washington have arguably never been better. US President Donald Trump’s choice of Hanoi as the venue of his second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un – Trump’s second visit to Vietnam since taking office two years ago – speaks volumes.

 

[Randy W]

Chris Chappell of China Uncensored makes some interesting points for thought here. I think he gives WAY too much credit to Trump, but here goes . . .

 

 

President Donald Trump walked away from the US North Korea Summit with no deal with Kim Jong-Un. Was it a failure? Or was it a strategy against China and Xi Jinping?

 

 

[Randy W]

from the SCMP - the video is well worth watching, but won't embed here unless they put it on YouTube - https://cf.cdn.vid.ly/5k2s8p/hd_mp4.mp4

 

North Korea executed envoy to US and officials after failed Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi

• Top negotiators were either killed or subjected to forced labour after talks between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump ended without resolution on US sanctions or the North’s nuclear programme

 

 

Shin Hye-yong, the interpreter for Kim Jong-un at the Hanoi meeting, is also said to have been detained in a political prison camp for undermining the authority of Kim Jong-un by making a critical interpretation mistake.

Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s sister who aided him in Hanoi, is said to be lying low, the paper reported, citing an unnamed South Korean government official who said: “We are not aware of Kim Yo-jong’s track record since the Hanoi meeting … We understand that Kim Jong-un has made her lie low.”

 

 

[Allon]

I remember the Sino-Vietnamese war, or the 3rd Vietnamese War, after I got back from Vietnam and was in grad school at the time. I have noticed lately in some discussions, the fact that Vietnam at the time was the 4th largest army in the world, and was well equipped with armaments left by the US when we left Vietnam, is often left out or forgotten.

 

Vietnam did not even use its first line troops in the battles and it still tied up the Chinese along the border. And many of the divisions of troops were fresh from the Second Vietnamese War (our Vietnam War) so they were bloodied and combat ready, especially in guerrilla war. The NVA is a disciplined and formidable army to be fighting against, as we learned ourselves. The Chinese were new and had seen only skirmishes with the Soviets (and their people) and some elements fought in the Chinese civil war.

 

Deng Xiaoping expressed anger with his generals for not being able to dig the Vietnamese out of Cambodia. It is said that if Vietnam had had a better air force to secure the air and provide better logistical help to the army, although the Soviets helped, China would have been totally defeated, instead of just being held at bay.

 

Some of the divisions of PLA that saw action in the 3rd War, were transferred to Beijing in 1989 (after finally getting an agreement with Vietnam about the war the same year) to handle the Tienanmen Square uprising. The divisions in the south did not speak the same language as the people of Beijing or the then division from Shenyang (Mandarin) in Beijing, and so could not be influenced by the actions of the locals. Premier Li Peng and Deng, along with several other hard line ministers, held a meeting without the conciliatory General Secretary Zhao Ziyang, and planned the massacre of students not only in Beijing but Chengdu and Shanghai. The elements of PLA from the divisions in the south had a formidable reputation for their fighting in the civil war in China, but could not defeat the likes of the NVA, although they did gain territory in north VIetnam.

 

All this is discussed in a fascinating book written in secret while under house arrest by Zhao Ziyang called Prisoner of the State.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang