Is China headed toward collapse?

[A Mafan]

link

 

The conventional wisdom in Washington and in most of the rest of the world is that the roaring Chinese economy is going to pull the global economy out of recession and back into growth. It¡¯s China¡¯s turn, the theory goes, as American consumers ¡ª who propelled the last global boom with their borrowing and spending ways ¡ª have begun to tighten their belts and increase savings rates.

 

The Chinese, with their unbridled capitalistic expansion propelled by a system they still refer to as ¡°socialism with Chinese characteristics,¡± are still thriving, though, with annual gross domestic product growth of 8.9 percent in the third quarter and a domestic consumer market just starting to flex its enormous muscles.

 

That¡¯s prompted some cheerleading from U.S. officials, who want to see those Chinese consumers begin to pick up the slack in the global economy ¡ª a theme President Barack Obama and his delegation are certain to bring up during next week¡¯s visit to China.

 

¡°Purchases of U.S. consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in the past,¡± Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said during a trip to Beijing this spring. ¡°In China, ... growth that is sustainable will require a very substantial shift from external to domestic demand, from an investment and export-intensive growth to growth led by consumption.¡±

 

That¡¯s one vision of the future.

 

But there¡¯s a growing group of market professionals who see a different picture altogether. These self-styled China bears take the less popular view: that the much-vaunted Chinese economic miracle is nothing but a paper dragon. In fact, they argue that the Chinese have dangerously overheated their economy, building malls, luxury stores and infrastructure for which there is almost no demand, and that the entire system is teetering toward collapse.

 

A Chinese collapse, of course, would have profound effects on the United States, limiting China¡¯s ability to buy U.S. debt and provoking unknown political changes inside the Chinese regime.

 

The China bears could be dismissed as a bunch of cranks and grumps except for one member of the group: hedge fund investor Jim Chanos.

 

Chanos, a billionaire, is the founder of the investment firm Kynikos Associates and a famous short seller ¡ª an investor who scrutinizes companies looking for hidden flaws and then bets against those firms in the market.

 

His most famous call came in 2001, when Chanos was one of the first to figure out that the accounting numbers presented to the public by Enron were pure fiction. Chanos began contacting Wall Street investment houses that were touting Enron¡¯s stock. ¡°We were struck by how many of them conceded that there was no way to analyze Enron but that investing in Enron was, instead, a ¡®trust me¡¯ story,¡± Chanos told a congressional committee in 2002.

 

 

Now, Chanos says he has found another ¡°trust me¡± story: China. And he is moving to short the entire nation¡¯s economy. Washington policymakers would do well to understand his argument, because if he¡¯s right, the consequences will be felt here.

 

Chanos and the other bears point to several key pieces of evidence that China is heading for a crash.

 

First, they point to the enormous Chinese economic stimulus effort ¡ª with the government spending $900 billion to prop up a $4.3 trillion economy. ¡°Yet China¡¯s economy, for all the stimulus it has received in 11 months, is underperforming,¡± Gordon Chang, author of ¡°The Coming Collapse of China,¡± wrote in Forbes at the end of October. ¡°More important, it is unlikely that [third-quarter] expansion was anywhere near the claimed 8.9 percent.¡±

 

Chang argues that inconsistencies in Chinese official statistics ¡ª like the surging numbers for car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption ¡ª indicate that the Chinese are simply cooking their books. He speculates that Chinese state-run companies are buying fleets of cars and simply storing them in giant parking lots in order to generate apparent growth.

 

Another data point cited by the bears: overcapacity. For example, the Chinese already consume more cement than the rest of the world combined, at 1.4 billion tons per year. But they have dramatically ramped up their ability to produce even more in recent years, leading to an estimated spare capacity of about 340 million tons, which, according to a report prepared earlier this year by Pivot Capital Management, is more than the consumption in the U.S., India and Japan combined.

 

This, Chanos and others argue, is happening in sector after sector in the Chinese economy. And that means the Chinese are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.

 

The Pivot Capital report was extremely popular in Chanos¡¯s office and concluded, ¡°We believe the coming slowdown in China has the potential to be a similar watershed event for world markets as the reversal of the U.S. subprime and housing boom.¡±

 

And the bears also keep a close eye on anecdotal reports from the ground level in China, like a recent posting on a blog called The Peking Duck about shopping at Beijing¡¯s ¡°stunningly dysfunctional, catastrophic mall, called The Place.¡±

 

¡°I was shocked at what I saw,¡± the blogger wrote. ¡°Fifty percent of the eateries in the basement were boarded up. The cheap food court, too, was gone, covered up with ugly blue boarding, making the basement especially grim and dreary. ... There is simply too much stuff, too many stores and no buyers.¡±

 

I'm skeptical. I've been hearing the same sort of thing for more than a decade now.

[Mike62356]

Yep, and 2012 is the end of the world.

[whome?]

link

 

The conventional wisdom in Washington and in most of the rest of the world is that the roaring Chinese economy is going to pull the global economy out of recession and back into growth. It¡¯s China¡¯s turn, the theory goes, as American consumers ¡ª who propelled the last global boom with their borrowing and spending ways ¡ª have begun to tighten their belts and increase savings rates.

 

The Chinese, with their unbridled capitalistic expansion propelled by a system they still refer to as ¡°socialism with Chinese characteristics,¡± are still thriving, though, with annual gross domestic product growth of 8.9 percent in the third quarter and a domestic consumer market just starting to flex its enormous muscles.

 

That¡¯s prompted some cheerleading from U.S. officials, who want to see those Chinese consumers begin to pick up the slack in the global economy ¡ª a theme President Barack Obama and his delegation are certain to bring up during next week¡¯s visit to China.

 

¡°Purchases of U.S. consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in the past,¡± Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said during a trip to Beijing this spring. ¡°In China, ... growth that is sustainable will require a very substantial shift from external to domestic demand, from an investment and export-intensive growth to growth led by consumption.¡±

 

That¡¯s one vision of the future.

 

But there¡¯s a growing group of market professionals who see a different picture altogether. These self-styled China bears take the less popular view: that the much-vaunted Chinese economic miracle is nothing but a paper dragon. In fact, they argue that the Chinese have dangerously overheated their economy, building malls, luxury stores and infrastructure for which there is almost no demand, and that the entire system is teetering toward collapse.

 

A Chinese collapse, of course, would have profound effects on the United States, limiting China¡¯s ability to buy U.S. debt and provoking unknown political changes inside the Chinese regime.

 

The China bears could be dismissed as a bunch of cranks and grumps except for one member of the group: hedge fund investor Jim Chanos.

 

Chanos, a billionaire, is the founder of the investment firm Kynikos Associates and a famous short seller ¡ª an investor who scrutinizes companies looking for hidden flaws and then bets against those firms in the market.

 

His most famous call came in 2001, when Chanos was one of the first to figure out that the accounting numbers presented to the public by Enron were pure fiction. Chanos began contacting Wall Street investment houses that were touting Enron¡¯s stock. ¡°We were struck by how many of them conceded that there was no way to analyze Enron but that investing in Enron was, instead, a ¡®trust me¡¯ story,¡± Chanos told a congressional committee in 2002.

 

 

Now, Chanos says he has found another ¡°trust me¡± story: China. And he is moving to short the entire nation¡¯s economy. Washington policymakers would do well to understand his argument, because if he¡¯s right, the consequences will be felt here.

 

Chanos and the other bears point to several key pieces of evidence that China is heading for a crash.

 

First, they point to the enormous Chinese economic stimulus effort ¡ª with the government spending $900 billion to prop up a $4.3 trillion economy. ¡°Yet China¡¯s economy, for all the stimulus it has received in 11 months, is underperforming,¡± Gordon Chang, author of ¡°The Coming Collapse of China,¡± wrote in Forbes at the end of October. ¡°More important, it is unlikely that [third-quarter] expansion was anywhere near the claimed 8.9 percent.¡±

 

Chang argues that inconsistencies in Chinese official statistics ¡ª like the surging numbers for car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption ¡ª indicate that the Chinese are simply cooking their books. He speculates that Chinese state-run companies are buying fleets of cars and simply storing them in giant parking lots in order to generate apparent growth.

 

Another data point cited by the bears: overcapacity. For example, the Chinese already consume more cement than the rest of the world combined, at 1.4 billion tons per year. But they have dramatically ramped up their ability to produce even more in recent years, leading to an estimated spare capacity of about 340 million tons, which, according to a report prepared earlier this year by Pivot Capital Management, is more than the consumption in the U.S., India and Japan combined.

 

This, Chanos and others argue, is happening in sector after sector in the Chinese economy. And that means the Chinese are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.

 

The Pivot Capital report was extremely popular in Chanos¡¯s office and concluded, ¡°We believe the coming slowdown in China has the potential to be a similar watershed event for world markets as the reversal of the U.S. subprime and housing boom.¡±

 

And the bears also keep a close eye on anecdotal reports from the ground level in China, like a recent posting on a blog called The Peking Duck about shopping at Beijing¡¯s ¡°stunningly dysfunctional, catastrophic mall, called The Place.¡±

 

¡°I was shocked at what I saw,¡± the blogger wrote. ¡°Fifty percent of the eateries in the basement were boarded up. The cheap food court, too, was gone, covered up with ugly blue boarding, making the basement especially grim and dreary. ... There is simply too much stuff, too many stores and no buyers.¡±

 

I'm skeptical. I've been hearing the same sort of thing for more than a decade now.

In every Chinese city I have ever been to I see many new empty apartments with more new ones bringing built. I dont know if this viewpoint is correct but I see enough here to give it some thought and some credibility.

[Zhou Zhou]

I have seen the empty and un-finished buildings, too. But last month in Lhasa I was surprised to see a lot of construction and road building. I knew that the government pours a lot of infrastructure yuan into Tibet, but it was still a surprise.

[amberjack1234]

I am not much into these predictions but I hope not. It did certainly happen to Japan in the early 1990's didn't it. I thought that Japan was going to end up owning America. They bought ever piece of prime property from the exclusive golf courses in California to Macy's department store in New York. They owned the computer industry and computers were sky high after the crash they were dirt cheap. My old fire chief was even given a best seller book by a Japanese writer by his boss (full bird colonel) and was told to read it, comprehend and implement the authors theme of thinking.

 

Then bam it was all over.

 

Here is a link as to how it happened. Of course there are many links I just picked this one you can do your own Googling for more. There was also a very good article in the National Geographic about it as well.

 

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/bubble.htm

 

Larry

[fineart]

Before I open that link, I would like to say, as long as the badger hat don't take wealth out of China, China will have the chance to stage a comeback even if it met crisis.

 

Let's give an example, which is the fact in China. China's real estate price has been increasing again and again. How many Chinese can afford to buy a home? When I bought my own appartment, real estate was not widely accepted yet---not willingly accepted by ordinary Chinese people. That was why I could buy it at cheap price, because if it was not cheap, I would not have bought it. Many people at that time still expected to be assigned an appartment by where they were working and they only paid a small portion of money by themselves, the rest would be paid by their working place. But most likely they had to wait for 10, 20 years or even longer to get an opportunity that their working place would assign them the appartment. I could wait too at that time until my working place assigned an appartment to me and they paid most of the cost, but I didn't want to wait for so long to have my own property. Plus I was thinking about if I got married eventually and had an kid, it would be good for me to take care of everything if I had an appartment nearby. Of course being with my parents frequently was my first intention to buy that appartment.

 

Nowadays, Chinese people accept the idea to pay a home all by themselves, no matter how crazily real estate has been pricing up.

 

----But who make the money from real estate?

 

This has been going on for many years: Chinese governors assigned the land at incredibly cheap price to their relatives, or to some other people who bribed them. Then the appartments were built on the land and sold to powerless Chinese people. During the procedure of the appartments being built, there were corruption on the materials used too. To fatten those badger hats' wallet, there must be a resource of money, and where does the resource come from? ----The answer is: Ordinary people's pocket.

 

So you see the poor are hard to change their social status. The powerful people and those who are related to them(by blood tie, or by certain relationship) get richer.

 

The bad thing is, these people often squander the wealth taken from China in other countries. Such as, you can see some Chinese pay off luxurious houses at one time in rich countries. Most of them don't have clean hands. You can often see some Chinese officials squander money in gambling place too. They were taken as God by the gambling places. So, if they can leave the money in China, they should be appreciated enough, because this give China the opportunity to develop in the future. Everybody will die without being able to take a penny with him. If the wealth stays in China, not in other countries, China has hope.

[Mick]

My limited, and believe me, it is quite limited, knowledge of economics leads me to believe that predictions about what may or may not happen in China are highly speculative, at best. I think this is true for several reasons. First of all, as recent events in our economy should tell us, market economies are highly complex organisms that sometimes seem to have a life of their own, no matter what we may do to tinker with them. Second, what is happening in China is in many ways unprecedented if you take into account the global realities in which the Chinese economy is participating in. I sure hope it doesn't collapse, but I would not be at all surprised if the charge that they are cooking the books is true.

 

Also, it could very well be that the gov't is buying up fleets of cars to give the impression that car sales are skyrocketing. Those gasoline consumption figures are most telling, I think.

 

It reminds me of something that I saw happen when I lived over there. The city where I spent four of the five years I lived there spent a huge amount of money constructing a large retail section in the city, complete with an international mall, three five-star hotels, and most interesting, a huge public library that was a centerpiece in the project.

 

Here's the fascinating part....the library was completely empty. No books, no nothin' inside. I found this out because one of my students was the vice-mayor's daughter. She told me it was empty and I didn't believe it. She got the key, took me there and lo and behold, nothing inside...no books, furniture, not even carpet. Just bare concrete floors.

 

They used it as a show piece from the outside only. When investors would tour the area, they were driven past the library, but no one ever went inside.

 

That building went up the year before I arrived and it was empty the first year I was there. I went back inside with my student a week before I left, some four years later...it was still empty.

 

There were other examples of a like nature....so buying up cars would be a similar ploy..

 

I hope this guy is wrong in his assessment, because if China tanks it will have a big impact here...

[fineart]

Mick, what you said is true. Common people who have intelligence and who are RESPONSIBLE can face the reality in China, and do not perform blind. I am from an ordinary family. All my relatives who have blood tie with me gain stable jobs through education. We live comfortably in China but we are not rich. Would we like to see China collapses? Definitely not. Only when China has safe future, my relatives in China can live safe. If China collapses, they will be in adversity. They don't have countless money in the bank as some badger hats do who don't need to worry about any possible financial crisis. When our family members choose our majors for our education, the considerations are whether a major will gain a good stable job, on the basis that we are interested in it. We value education not just for it can bring us good jobs but we can not let it happen that our family members are illiterate and ignorant. Since we work in different fields, we have seen different wrong, dark things going on which are very harmful for the country and society. This makes our family members worried about China's future. But people mean to be born to live happily. Most time we just try not to think much about the potential crisis, and try to enjoy the happiness we bring to each other. Whenever we see some wrong things, certainly our family members will have a discussion, most likely keep it in family range. It is a outlet of concerns. So I hope Hu and Wen can continue to do the necessary changes to help with China's future, help with ordinary Chinese people's life.

[Mick]

Mick, what you said is true. Common people who have intelligence and who are RESPONSIBLE can face the reality in China, and do not perform blind. I am from an ordinary family. All my relatives who have blood tie with me gain stable jobs through education. We live comfortably in China but we are not rich. Would we like to see China collapses? Definitely not. Only when China has safe future, my relatives in China can live safe. If China collapses, they will be in adversity. They don't have countless money in the bank as some badger hats do who don't need to worry about any possible financial crisis. When our family members choose our majors for our education, the considerations are whether a major will gain a good stable job, on the basis that we are interested in it. We value education not just for it can bring us good jobs but we can not let it happen that our family members are illiterate and ignorant. Since we work in different fields, we have seen different wrong, dark things going on which are very harmful for the country and society. This makes our family members worried about China's future. But people mean to be born to live happily. Most time we just try not to think much about the potential crisis, and try to enjoy the happiness we bring to each other. Whenever we see some wrong things, certainly our family members will have a discussion, most likely keep it in family range. It is a outlet of concerns. So I hope Hu and Wen can continue to do the necessary changes to help with China's future, help with ordinary Chinese people's life.

Fineart -

 

Your description of your family reminds me so much of my wife Li's family. Although at the time she and her two siblings went to college they had little choice in what to study, they all worked very hard and were able to attend good universities. Her mother was a teacher and her father was in the Army. The family was not wealthy by any means, but they got by and always placed great emphasis on diligence and responsibility for oneself. I, too, hope things go well in China as I have many, many friends and family there. It is, in every sense of the word, a second home to me. The five years I spent in China were the most rewarding years of my life, personally, professionally, and spiritually.

[amberjack1234]

fineart I hope that China continues to do well and I hope that America recovers and our two countries will prosper and grow even stronger together in the future. I would like to see the US and China get into some space exploration projects together. IF and I do mean IF China is cooking the books I hope that for both our countries they can overcome and control it.

 

I am not into economics as my wife is so I don't know much about these things. That is why I don't debate them here. I am not a political person either and don't debate them either. All that I am interested in is that our families have a nice enough place to stay, good food to eat, decent clothes to wear, good medical care available, warm in the winter and cool in the summer. Everything else is just a plus.

 

I am like Mick, you remind me of my wife very much she see's the good as well as the not so good in both countries and is not ashamed or to proud to admit that both countries have issues and both countries have strong points as well.

 

Let's pray that these the things that we don't like are resolved and the things that make both countries strong will endure and make each one even stronger. Perhaps they can bond the best of both countries and become even greater. This is my wish.

 

Larry

[knloregon]

Well,

 

Great posts by Mick and FA... I think all of us have been to places over built, and my best example is Sanya. I always thought this resort city was a house of cards, and reported so here at least four or five years ago... (we went there to relax and prepare for her interview, and were there in December, which should have been high season, but the place was nearly empty, except the actual city area.. and yet, years later, it solders on....

 

"Chang argues that inconsistencies in Chinese official statistics ¡ª like the surging numbers for car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption ¡ª indicate that the Chinese are simply cooking their books. He speculates that Chinese state-run companies are buying fleets of cars and simply storing them in giant parking lots in order to generate apparent growth..."

 

Can't see how this is possible. For two reasons: First, GM and Ford are the international companies that are involved in record sales in China. If its happening, they are also involved. Their sales figures are widely reported, in the WSJ. GM's sales in China are virtually the only bright spot in the whole corp. Guess its possible they are selling only to gov. entities, but that should be easy to check---and very transparent.

 

Secondly, PRC consumption of gasoline, unlike in the US IS very much driven by both demand (economy oriented)---and price. Chinese government petro companies control the price, and usually, keep it artificially low to boost the economy, but now, after years of artificially low prices, may be trynig to throw PetroChina, and the like, a bone. Also, unlike the Stupid clunker program in the US, China offers significant incentives for fuel efficient cars. This does two things: First, it boosts overall fleet efficiency, and sells more cars.

 

Plenty of worries about China, going forward, FA and Mick have good insights, but this to me, doesn't seem to be a valid concern.

[fineart]

Mick and Larry, China will grow more healthy having more and more leaders as Hu and Wen.

 

I have been thinking how to help make my family's future life safe; my older generations have been thinking how to make sister and I and our offsprings safe. We have been watching to choose good ways to assure our family members future rather secure. So, I am positive with our future, though I have never blinded my eyes and refused to see the problems existing right there.

 

Mick and Larry, you and your families will be fine too. It will be great if the conception of USA and China work together to mutually benefit each other. More and more Americans are friendly with Chinese now. But still, the powerful people, such as those in the congress, most of them hate China. They are the main stream of the society. They have control in the country. Very few of them will choose to marry a Chinese. So they are not easily to change their mind and favor Chinese as CFLers do. So, expecting USA and China to stay in the same boat, enjoy same interest, it is not easy to realize---mainly because those who manipulate the country and make policies take China as a competitor. Since they personally don't have much connection to China they have not shown they would like China to be stronger. Instead they think China being stronger is threatening.

 

Some Chinese books reveal the real society going-ons, very truthful and trenchant. My ex bf was very interested in politics. He insisted me to read some books that were related to officialdom he bought, no matter how busy I was at that period. One book named ¡¶¹ú»­¡·was worth reading most. If your wives have time and interest, you might ask her to translate what she read for you. This book is one of the best books to view Chinese society. Everybody whom we recomended this book to, read on the book without a break even forgetting food and sleep, since it is so absorbing. Of course, that was in early 2000. Now, the society changed with more scientific things. But the some human nature has not changed much yet. You can read from online. I am not sure whether there is English version of this book. Actually, later I gave this book to a man that matters to our family and after he read it he sighed saying he finally know why he was not promoted...And since we CFLers are not going to participate Chinese life like the characters in the book do, the book may be not that attractive to some of us. But remember, it is a good book, no matter you read it or not.

[fineart]

Well,

 

Great posts by Mick and FA...

Kim, you may like to see beautiful things, as you are so artistic. I am not being sarcastic. So you may not see the ugly side as much as some other people do. Also, you are not short of money and you don't have to stay in some bad area in China. So, you might not have much experience with poor Chinese's life. I know your wish is as good as others, that we all hope China and USA develop healthily.

[amberjack1234]

fineart you are quite correct in that there are some in the Senate and Congress that do not like China, sad to say. Let me see if I can shed some light on the reason why. First of all these people are suppose to represent the people if they are in fact doing their job then the people have spoken as to what they wish to happen.

 

Here in North Carolina in the western part where all the industry use to be have fallen on hard times and for the most non-existent. The eastern part has stayed about the same. There were some of the worlds largest textile mills, tire manufactures, furniture manufacturers in this area. Now they all sit empty with all the windows broken out of them. These industrial giants are all out of business now. As the common laborer see's it China took their jobs away from them. When in fact these greedy American companies moved their businesses to China for the Cheap Labor. The entry level assembly line employee averaged about $20 to $30 per hour starting out depending on the type of product that they were making. In China they pay them any where from $3 to $5 per day. You see the difference? That is why they moved. To the common laborer here in western NC China has run them out of business and took their jobs. The way that I look at it is that they priced themselves out of their own jobs. Some of them were offered to take a pay cut and keep the factories here in NC but they and their Unions would not agree so now they have no jobs at all. To me making some money is better that making no money at all but I guess that everyone don't see it that way. The unions did not think they would shut down and move. They were wrong

 

Let me now get back to our representatives. The folks that have lost their jobs blame China and complain to their representatives so in turn the representatives that are doing what they are suppose to do and support the people in their districts that elect them are now against China. Now there are representatives that will vote and do as they see fit regardless of how the people in their districts want them to. This is mostly why there are representatives in NC that are against China's development. I am sure that each state has their own issues but that is what happen here in NC.

 

Just a side note about greed. I have a uncle that owns a seafood wholesale business. The state of NC wanted to buy it for 5 million dollars to make a boat access area for the local residents. He refused and demanded 6 million. After the negotiations fell through he wanted to take the 5 million and the state said sorry we have made another deal. Now uncle has to continue working for the rest of his life and his son and daughter that are in the business with him. The place was worth about 1 million dollars actually.

 

I went to our local Food Lion and saw a one page letter on their bulletin board that was a hate China letter for all the lost jobs western NC. It was posted by an individual and not Food Lion. I almost took it down but that would not have been saying much for freedom of speech would it? Everyone has a right to say what they believe in no matter how wrong they are. My wife saw it and agreed with me. I am glad that we live in the eastern part of NC where the economy has not been so severely affected.

 

I am sure that I haven't told you anything that you did not already know because I know how intelligent that you are but perhaps you did not know what was happening in my respective state.

 

Perhaps in more prosperous time China and America can become more reliant on each other and create a greater bond with each other. This is my wish.

Larry

[fineart]

Larry, you open another window for me. Many things are true just we don't have a channel to know so sometimes we have to believe what the media wants us to know. You tell us a truthful experience so it is a most creditable one. Thank you.

 

Yes, I agree with you, some senators or congress men may not be against Chinese but they have to represent common citizens' will if these citizens are against Chinese.

 

Why some people are against Chinese? As I have seen is because the media has been propagandaing negative or even hostitile things about China and Chinese people. The media can influence the society most. A simple example is if Oprah Winfrey says on TV that somebody writes a good book, this book could possibly become popular and a best-seller right away. Another example of the influence of the media is, Many people who hate homosexual originally change to give great simpathy on homosexual people after they watch the movie <Brokeback Moutain>, including myself. Many females, especially born in 1990s, claim they are lesbians(some of them only mean to follow the wind, they are not really lesbians) after they watch the movies depicting the lesbian love, starred by this woman[katherine sian moenning (shane)]:

 

http://t.douban.com/view/photo/photo/public/p173276952.jpg

 

Since Japan is the alliance of USA, for many years, in USA you can see propagandas very friendly with Japanese. If this treatment is given to China and Chinese, Chinese would have been accepted more than they had by American society, and the cruel treatment specially to exclude and discriminate Chinese could have diminished earlier. But China is too big and need to share too much resources of the world. I have taken two male teachers' Economics class. The first teacher said the world resource was limited. War happened eventually for the purpose of controlling and possessing the limited resources. He also mentioned China tried to occupy resources from all over the world. He said USA borrows money from China is a typical example of rich country borrows money from poor country, because "We Americans spend money, they Chinese save money". He said many people had a delusion that China was a strong and rich country now, but people should look at China's averaged GPA---then they would find China was very poor. So in this class, I didn't sense China-friendly atmosphere---but to be honest, what he said was true and he never treated me bad on my paper work. You see the influential people tell others about China this way, which would not have positive effect. But I don't blame him. He thought he was telling the fact and he didn't mean to be hostile. I asked other students things about the other Economic teacher who was a Jew, then I changed Economics teacher the following term. I believe students who learn from teachers like my first Economics teacher, could not have gained great impression on China, and if they don't become against China, I already feel very lucky. Actually it is not bad to get to know what people have been taught about China and the world even if it was not friendly with China. We need to know what others really think, not what we would like others to think.

 

Many powerful people try to accumulate as much wealth as they can. If there always is a target that American citizens can vent their discontentment to, those rich people will be safe because the public eye is transferred away from things related to these rich people. Medias all are controlled by powerful people. If the media keeps beautifying a person, the mass will like this person most likely; If the media keeps uglimizing a person, the mass will dislike or even hate this person. That has been proved very common. Actually recalling how we thought in the past, most of us have followed the way the medias wanted us to think. If there is no other resource of news, we can only believe what the media tell us.

Edited November 14, 2009 by fineart (see edit history)