China's decade? Don't bet on it.

[GDBILL]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33279816/ns/bu...orld_business//

 

 

Nice well-balanced article on the challenges facing China in the coming years.

[I-Luv-America]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33279816/ns/bu...orld_business//

 

 

Nice well-balanced article on the challenges facing China in the coming years.

 

Nice? Well-balanced?

 

The MSNBC scale comes to you straight from San Francisco.

 

Horseshit.

[Guest Pommey]

yet another example of analysis of growth/ advancement through the western models, I wonder how long it will take for these boys to realise that times are changing and they can either get on board or be left behind.

Some might not like it and will fight it "tooth and nail" to the very end, make crass arguments to bolster a system in decline, attempt to justify their position by the use of values systems and economic systems/models that have had their day. Its tough for people who are totally invested in a declining ruling system to even see the change coming, let alone accept it as inevitable.

History is riddled with those that deny change, just because they cannot see beyond what worked for them before.

Anyone that really believes that china is not going to be the major force in world change both economically and politically, and that continuing to adopt a position of a declining system and basing judgement on that, is in for a sad next 100 years or so.

The west is going to have to accept change is coming and it ain't going to be defined by them alone.

[david_dawei]

I don't know.

 

Point #1: "These predictions generally are based on simple extrapolations of recent trends in GDP growth in China and the United States."

 

They would have a stronger argument on point #1 if backed up with data... but not just from looking at GDP. Actual exports by country would be interesting to see.

 

Point #2: "The rule of law is fundamental for sustaining economic growth and development."

 

I'm not sure based on whose model or assumption. We'd need to see where that stopped chinese growth in the past.

 

Point #3: "But to do so will entail a dramatic departure from the current growth model and the implementation of major economic reforms. "

 

I'm not sure of people who talk from the outside without solid data and examples. I feel they want china to operate like a western model.

 

Part of the problem may be the eternal "yellow peril" which exists in the west. China may have no interest in "becoming the world's largest economy"... They are good at surviving. So to say it is 'popular belief' maybe needs to be modified with: Popular [western fear based] belief.

 

To be an effective article, it needs data and real life examples.

[GDBILL]

I don't know.

 

Point #1: "These predictions generally are based on simple extrapolations of recent trends in GDP growth in China and the United States."

 

They would have a stronger argument on point #1 if backed up with data... but not just from looking at GDP. Actual exports by country would be interesting to see.

 

Point #2: "The rule of law is fundamental for sustaining economic growth and development."

 

I'm not sure based on whose model or assumption. We'd need to see where that stopped chinese growth in the past.

 

Point #3: "But to do so will entail a dramatic departure from the current growth model and the implementation of major economic reforms. "

 

I'm not sure of people who talk from the outside without solid data and examples. I feel they want china to operate like a western model.

 

Part of the problem may be the eternal "yellow peril" which exists in the west. China may have no interest in "becoming the world's largest economy"... They are good at surviving. So to say it is 'popular belief' maybe needs to be modified with: Popular [western fear based] belief.

 

To be an effective article, it needs data and real life examples.

 

Considering the audience and the length limitations, it might have been difficult to include statistics. In any event, much of what the article states is accurate. China is an export economy and most of the growth they need to sustain development comes from foreigh investment and / or export / import with other major economies. Foreign investment, by the Chinese government's own admission, is down dramatically due in no small part to the perception that there is more investment stability in countries like India and Vietnam. Part of this lack of investment stability comes from the usually unpredictable legal and regulatory environment.

 

I don't think China has to operate like a Western satellite. They do need to operate more transparently and adhere to legal norms, though. The days of investors seeing opportunity in China simply because "it's the world's largest market" are gone. First, it is no longer the world's largest market. Second, it is a market with limited regulatory and legal consistency. Third, investors have discovered that the adjective "poor" is important when placed before the word "market."

[GDBILL]

yet another example of analysis of growth/ advancement through the western models, I wonder how long it will take for these boys to realise that times are changing and they can either get on board or be left behind.

Some might not like it and will fight it "tooth and nail" to the very end, make crass arguments to bolster a system in decline, attempt to justify their position by the use of values systems and economic systems/models that have had their day. Its tough for people who are totally invested in a declining ruling system to even see the change coming, let alone accept it as inevitable.

History is riddled with those that deny change, just because they cannot see beyond what worked for them before.

Anyone that really believes that china is not going to be the major force in world change both economically and politically, and that continuing to adopt a position of a declining system and basing judgement on that, is in for a sad next 100 years or so.

The west is going to have to accept change is coming and it ain't going to be defined by them alone.

 

What specific facts can you point to to justify your ideas?

 

Oh, I know ... we have to Google it for you.

[I-Luv-America]

 

What specific facts can you point to to justify your ideas?

 

Oh, I know ... we have to Google it for you.

 

You and that "mouse with a buzz" in your pocket seem to be enjoying each others company.

 

The article you posted is riddled with an author's opinion from a freaking focus group. Everyone has an opinion, even though the ones belonging to you, your mouse, and Steven Dunaway are a little smaller than everyone elses.

[Guest Pommey]

yet another example of analysis of growth/ advancement through the western models, I wonder how long it will take for these boys to realise that times are changing and they can either get on board or be left behind.

Some might not like it and will fight it "tooth and nail" to the very end, make crass arguments to bolster a system in decline, attempt to justify their position by the use of values systems and economic systems/models that have had their day. Its tough for people who are totally invested in a declining ruling system to even see the change coming, let alone accept it as inevitable.

History is riddled with those that deny change, just because they cannot see beyond what worked for them before.

Anyone that really believes that china is not going to be the major force in world change both economically and politically, and that continuing to adopt a position of a declining system and basing judgement on that, is in for a sad next 100 years or so.

The west is going to have to accept change is coming and it ain't going to be defined by them alone.

 

What specific facts can you point to to justify your ideas?

 

Oh, I know ... we have to Google it for you.

 

Bill, I realise its difficult for you think beyond stats or current models, you always talk of "facts" if you really think there is any such thing, then you really need to think again, so go the dinosaurs, trying to help you out here. start thinking outside the box, use your own mind and think like a individual not a product/robot.

Continuously you just asking for proof to what can be shown, a shallow mind hanging despiriety on to what is comfortable and stable/past. I bear you no animosity, but you remind me of my grandfather, a colonial policeman , who just could not accept the change happening in front of his eyes in Kenya.

Bill you can fight a rearguard action for western capitalism all you like, just don't see how you think how you be happy in the end.

None of us us can predict the future, but we can choose whether we will a positive agent or a person who says I love the status Que and get left behind.

I dont know you, your life, and therefore just ask you from reading your posts, that maybe, just maybe you need to open your mind more.

feel free to ignore everything I just wrote.

[Jaseball]

I love what I believe the US stands for, but there have been way too many instances and situations where the politicians, insurance companies, lawyers, extreme liberals/conservatives, etc., have really just screwed with the entire ideal of our country.

 

Having China holding 3 trillion of our debt and needing the world to continue to buy our debt to run the next 3 generations of American's into debt into further debt is insanity.

 

Sure China exports, but that means they have a strong manufacturing base - something the US decided to give up for the 'high paying service industry,' jobs.

 

It also means for decades China let companies like GM, Pfizer, Ford, All Clad, IBM, Dell, etc., etc build factories, showed them processes, provided technology, training, etc., and just patiently learned and stored this information.

 

So many American's think Made in China is just tainted lead based paint toys, bad baby formula, cheap clothes. Well, they have that stuff, but they also have the high tech, heavy industry stuff too.

 

Sure China will be hurt as US consumers cut back. People without jobs here, who have suffered 20-40% drops in both housing and investments, who have had pension funds suffer massive losses, who may get screwed yet again with ever increasing health insurance, education, and other costs won't be able to go into easy debt or take out equity to buy some of the stuff China and other nations produce.

 

Still, the US isn't the only market place. We were just a large population of people willing to go into debt for a bunch of stuff produced by other nations and believed things would never change.

 

Other nations are diversifying out of the dollar. OPEC wants oil to be removed from the dollar. We don't have strong inflation yet, but it's coming.

 

Our government continues to write checks we can't afford, covered by paper money hot off the presses. They can tax us at 100% and we'd still be screwed for decades.

 

Sure, it may not be China's decade, but it sure as heck won't be ours either.

 

We really need to wake up and see the hole we are in and worry about our own problems. Pointing a finger and speculating about China is useless.

[whome?]

Also from MSNBC ... seems more balanced...huge potential for china but some serious issues/problems to resolve...but I would have to agree the balance of economic power will shift from USA to Asia...

 

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33211602/ns/bu...world_business/

Edited October 14, 2009 by whome? (see edit history)

[Guest jin979]

yet another example of analysis of growth/ advancement through the western models, I wonder how long it will take for these boys to realise that times are changing and they can either get on board or be left behind.

Some might not like it and will fight it "tooth and nail" to the very end, make crass arguments to bolster a system in decline, attempt to justify their position by the use of values systems and economic systems/models that have had their day. Its tough for people who are totally invested in a declining ruling system to even see the change coming, let alone accept it as inevitable.

History is riddled with those that deny change, just because they cannot see beyond what worked for them before.

Anyone that really believes that china is not going to be the major force in world change both economically and politically, and that continuing to adopt a position of a declining system and basing judgement on that, is in for a sad next 100 years or so.

The west is going to have to accept change is coming and it ain't going to be defined by them alone.

 

 

 

lao gong be quite

[Guest Tony n Terrific]

The US passed China in 1892 as the worlds largest economy. This was before the Federal Government decided they new best. I heard this morning on the radio that my state of Ohio lost 107,000 manufacturing jobs the last two years and over 600,000 manufacturing jobs since 1994. As this bleeding of good paying jobs continues how will the US pay it debts back to China and no longer be able to buy Chinese Goods? China decade? This could become the world's nightmare decade.

[Dennis143]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33279816/ns/bu...orld_business//

 

 

Nice well-balanced article on the challenges facing China in the coming years.

 

Nice? Well-balanced?

 

The MSNBC scale comes to you straight from San Francisco.

 

Horseshit.

Welcome back, Jesse. B)

[GDBILL]

yet another example of analysis of growth/ advancement through the western models, I wonder how long it will take for these boys to realise that times are changing and they can either get on board or be left behind.

Some might not like it and will fight it "tooth and nail" to the very end, make crass arguments to bolster a system in decline, attempt to justify their position by the use of values systems and economic systems/models that have had their day. Its tough for people who are totally invested in a declining ruling system to even see the change coming, let alone accept it as inevitable.

History is riddled with those that deny change, just because they cannot see beyond what worked for them before.

Anyone that really believes that china is not going to be the major force in world change both economically and politically, and that continuing to adopt a position of a declining system and basing judgement on that, is in for a sad next 100 years or so.

The west is going to have to accept change is coming and it ain't going to be defined by them alone.

 

What specific facts can you point to to justify your ideas?

 

Oh, I know ... we have to Google it for you.

 

Bill, I realise its difficult for you think beyond stats or current models, you always talk of "facts" if you really think there is any such thing, then you really need to think again, so go the dinosaurs, trying to help you out here. start thinking outside the box, use your own mind and think like a individual not a product/robot.

Continuously you just asking for proof to what can be shown, a shallow mind hanging despiriety on to what is comfortable and stable/past. I bear you no animosity, but you remind me of my grandfather, a colonial policeman , who just could not accept the change happening in front of his eyes in Kenya.

Bill you can fight a rearguard action for western capitalism all you like, just don't see how you think how you be happy in the end.

None of us us can predict the future, but we can choose whether we will a positive agent or a person who says I love the status Que and get left behind.

I dont know you, your life, and therefore just ask you from reading your posts, that maybe, just maybe you need to open your mind more.

feel free to ignore everything I just wrote.

 

So in other words, true to form, you don't answer the question because you don't know WTF you are talking about?

 

Why is that not a surprise?

[Jaseball]

Does China face more challenges or do we face more challenges in the next 10 years?

 

That's a straight forward question. In my opinion? We face far more challenges in the next 10 years. Hell, right now we have democrats trying to pass a 2 trillion dollar 'health reform,' bill and the craziest part is they catered to the insurance companies, yet the insurance companies STILL spit in their face. That right there is already a huge challenge we face.

 

Not to mention 2 ongoing wars, insurmountable debt, worthless yet insanely expensive college education, shrinking middle class, ongoing economic crisis, jobless people, aging baby boomer population, dying domestic car manufacturers, etc., etc.

 

Call me insane, but I'd rather deal with China's problems.

Edited October 14, 2009 by Jaseball (see edit history)