jim_julian Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Now that the Olympics has drawn to a close, the attention of China's government is expected to turn to the economy as the feel-good factor from topping the gold medals table wears off. Many citizens are likely to be asking why, if our athletes are so good, is our stock market the world's worst performer this year -- down 53%? Interesting but pessimistic article. Link to comment
rogerluli Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Link to comment
Randy W Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 The Chinese mutual funds FXI and MCHFX are up 60% (down from a high of 160%) for the last 2 years, while the Hang Seng is up only 20% Link to comment
Guest Mike and Lily Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Those same pundits that were saying "buy" the Chinese market at 5000+ are the same ones that are saying "sell" now at 2400. The Chinese stock market will have it's ups and downs. As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow at around 10%, the stock market almost has no choice to go up on a long term basis. It doesn't mean we can't go to 1500 over the next few months, but in ten years, there is no question that the Chinese market goes much higher. (unless the Chinese economy turns around, which it is showing no signs of doing) Link to comment
rogerluli Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Those same pundits that were saying "buy" the Chinese market at 5000+ are the same ones that are saying "sell" now at 2400. The Chinese stock market will have it's ups and downs. As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow at around 10%, the stock market almost has no choice to go up on a long term basis. It doesn't mean we can't go to 1500 over the next few months, but in ten years, there is no question that the Chinese market goes much higher. (unless the Chinese economy turns around, which it is showing no signs of doing) TEN YEARS !!! In the end we're all dead anyway... Link to comment
Guest Mike and Lily Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Those same pundits that were saying "buy" the Chinese market at 5000+ are the same ones that are saying "sell" now at 2400. The Chinese stock market will have it's ups and downs. As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow at around 10%, the stock market almost has no choice to go up on a long term basis. It doesn't mean we can't go to 1500 over the next few months, but in ten years, there is no question that the Chinese market goes much higher. (unless the Chinese economy turns around, which it is showing no signs of doing) TEN YEARS !!! In the end we're all dead anyway... Not me. I'm going to live forever. I promised my lao po I would not die before her. Link to comment
Don Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Those same pundits that were saying "buy" the Chinese market at 5000+ are the same ones that are saying "sell" now at 2400. The Chinese stock market will have it's ups and downs. As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow at around 10%, the stock market almost has no choice to go up on a long term basis. It doesn't mean we can't go to 1500 over the next few months, but in ten years, there is no question that the Chinese market goes much higher. (unless the Chinese economy turns around, which it is showing no signs of doing) In a fair market you are correct. Many doubt the chinese market is a real and fair market. A few inisiders seems to have very good info, and the fake trades really cause me concern. Have you watched the market? Everyone has thier laptop programs that watch trades and often huge trades show up on the screen, but than 30 min later they do not really get placed. THis causes many people to try and jump in the same direction as the traders, most losing their money. Very bad info is given to most people about the market and they loose a lot of money. Link to comment
Guest Mike and Lily Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Those same pundits that were saying "buy" the Chinese market at 5000+ are the same ones that are saying "sell" now at 2400. The Chinese stock market will have it's ups and downs. As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow at around 10%, the stock market almost has no choice to go up on a long term basis. It doesn't mean we can't go to 1500 over the next few months, but in ten years, there is no question that the Chinese market goes much higher. (unless the Chinese economy turns around, which it is showing no signs of doing) In a fair market you are correct. Many doubt the chinese market is a real and fair market. A few inisiders seems to have very good info, and the fake trades really cause me concern. Have you watched the market? Everyone has thier laptop programs that watch trades and often huge trades show up on the screen, but than 30 min later they do not really get placed. THis causes many people to try and jump in the same direction as the traders, most losing their money. Very bad info is given to most people about the market and they loose a lot of money. As I said, traders can cause the market to fluctuate short term, but in the long term, the market will follow the Chinese economy. Companies based in China as a whole are more likely to outperform those based in the USA over the long term. Link to comment
Randy W Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 In a fair market you are correct. Many doubt the chinese market is a real and fair market. A few inisiders seems to have very good info, and the fake trades really cause me concern. Have you watched the market? Everyone has thier laptop programs that watch trades and often huge trades show up on the screen, but than 30 min later they do not really get placed. THis causes many people to try and jump in the same direction as the traders, most losing their money. Very bad info is given to most people about the market and they loose a lot of money. Large traders have a great deal of control over some stock prices. They can run the price up and back down as they see fit. The US market, I have no doubt, is manipulated in this way. I've seen stocks rise by as much as 25% going into a good news release - and then begin falling BEFORE the release. there is very little, if any, scrutiny at this level. Link to comment
Stepbrow Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Those same pundits that were saying "buy" the Chinese market at 5000+ are the same ones that are saying "sell" now at 2400. The Chinese stock market will have it's ups and downs. As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow at around 10%, the stock market almost has no choice to go up on a long term basis. It doesn't mean we can't go to 1500 over the next few months, but in ten years, there is no question that the Chinese market goes much higher. (unless the Chinese economy turns around, which it is showing no signs of doing) TEN YEARS !!! In the end we're all dead anyway... Roger, your only 60 remember? Still a young guy! Link to comment
Randy W Posted August 25, 2008 Report Share Posted August 25, 2008 (edited) The Chinese mutual funds FXI and MCHFX are up 60% (down from a high of 160%) for the last 2 years, while the Hang Seng is up only 20% http://i38.tinypic.com/2ql8j69.jpg The NASDAQ dropped more like 70%, but took more than 2 years to do it back in 2000 - 2003. Edited August 25, 2008 by Randy W (see edit history) Link to comment
GZBILL Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Those same pundits that were saying "buy" the Chinese market at 5000+ are the same ones that are saying "sell" now at 2400. The Chinese stock market will have it's ups and downs. As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow at around 10%, the stock market almost has no choice to go up on a long term basis. It doesn't mean we can't go to 1500 over the next few months, but in ten years, there is no question that the Chinese market goes much higher. (unless the Chinese economy turns around, which it is showing no signs of doing) Hate to break it to you, but Shanghai A shares have been crap for the past two years. Practically the only time in the exchange's history that they have been decent on any steady basis was from approximately 2004 to 2007. Several fundamental problems with Chinese shares that virtually anybody who can walk and chew gum at the same time would realize: 1. Primary trading factors involve minor news reports, weather, bonus payments and PMS; 2. Any company financial statement is probably full of substantial lies; 3. Insider trading is the norm; 4. Day traders make up the bulk of the transactions (see rule #1); 5. Fraud, in every possible aspect, is rampant. A better bet would be Red Chips listed on the Hong Kong Exchange. And even then. Link to comment
Guest Mike and Lily Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 Conventional wisdom in China is that house prices are now in for major falls also... Conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Those same pundits that were saying "buy" the Chinese market at 5000+ are the same ones that are saying "sell" now at 2400. The Chinese stock market will have it's ups and downs. As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow at around 10%, the stock market almost has no choice to go up on a long term basis. It doesn't mean we can't go to 1500 over the next few months, but in ten years, there is no question that the Chinese market goes much higher. (unless the Chinese economy turns around, which it is showing no signs of doing) Hate to break it to you, but Shanghai A shares have been crap for the past two years. Practically the only time in the exchange's history that they have been decent on any steady basis was from approximately 2004 to 2007. Several fundamental problems with Chinese shares that virtually anybody who can walk and chew gum at the same time would realize: 1. Primary trading factors involve minor news reports, weather, bonus payments and PMS; 2. Any company financial statement is probably full of substantial lies; 3. Insider trading is the norm; 4. Day traders make up the bulk of the transactions (see rule #1); 5. Fraud, in every possible aspect, is rampant. A better bet would be Red Chips listed on the Hong Kong Exchange. And even then. I will agree that bogus financial statements will kill any coimpany's credibility. Chinese or US. Insider trading will also screw the little guy. Day traders just add liquidity to markets. In the long run, they usually do no harm except to themselves. News reports, big and small cause stocks to over-react here as well. Link to comment
IllinoisDave Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 I'm no economist but this doesn't sound good. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../ccchina126.xml Link to comment
Randy W Posted August 26, 2008 Report Share Posted August 26, 2008 I'm no economist but this doesn't sound good. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../ccchina126.xml It sounds to me like they know what they're doing, unlike some other countries we know of - foreign "hot money" in the form of US debt may not be all that good of a deal. Link to comment
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