Good Article....

[DMikeS4321]

Chinese un-employment?

 

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/W...china_02_15.asp

[DMikeS4321]

Chinese un-employment?

 

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/W...china_02_15.asp

 

 

Potentially 300 million unemployed.....that would be like if nobody in the US had a job...no matter how you look at it, from a US growth, world growth, or purely a internal Chinese problem...this is not good. The impact of such an occurance will be felt everwhere...

 

My wife, who is without a doubt the smartest business person I've ever known, has been telling me that it is becoming very difficult to "make money" in China now. One of her friends, a virtual genius commodities trader, no longer trades because of the volatility of the market. She won't even sell short because of the uncertainty.

 

A good part of the problem is rooted in the faltering U.S. economy. I've been saying for quiet a while now, if the U.S. economy sneezes, the Chinese economy will catch pneumonia. A couple of weeks ago Wall Street had a bad day. The Shanghai dropped 5%.

 

We may all be in for a rough ride. CCP sees inflation as being their big problem but will probably abandon that policy concern if unemployment really gets out of hand. That could be very bad for them but better for us, IF we can keep OUR act together. We'll see what happens here in November.

[IllinoisDave]

Chinese un-employment?

 

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/W...china_02_15.asp

 

 

Potentially 300 million unemployed.....that would be like if nobody in the US had a job...no matter how you look at it, from a US growth, world growth, or purely a internal Chinese problem...this is not good. The impact of such an occurance will be felt everwhere...

 

My wife, who is without a doubt the smartest business person I've ever known, has been telling me that it is becoming very difficult to "make money" in China now. One of her friends, a virtual genius commodities trader, no longer trades because of the volatility of the market. She won't even sell short because of the uncertainty.

 

A good part of the problem is rooted in the faltering U.S. economy. I've been saying for quiet a while now, if the U.S. economy sneezes, the Chinese economy will catch pneumonia. A couple of weeks ago Wall Street had a bad day. The Shanghai dropped 5%.

 

We may all be in for a rough ride. CCP sees inflation as being their big problem but will probably abandon that policy concern if unemployment really gets out of hand. That could be very bad for them but better for us, IF we can keep OUR act together. We'll see what happens here in November.

 

Mike,

I'd be interested to know what your wife thinks about this for the long-haul. Does she think things will ever go back to the days when it was easier to "make money" in China. Or has that bubble burst for good?

[DMikeS4321]

Chinese un-employment?

 

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/W...china_02_15.asp

 

 

Potentially 300 million unemployed.....that would be like if nobody in the US had a job...no matter how you look at it, from a US growth, world growth, or purely a internal Chinese problem...this is not good. The impact of such an occurance will be felt everwhere...

 

My wife, who is without a doubt the smartest business person I've ever known, has been telling me that it is becoming very difficult to "make money" in China now. One of her friends, a virtual genius commodities trader, no longer trades because of the volatility of the market. She won't even sell short because of the uncertainty.

 

A good part of the problem is rooted in the faltering U.S. economy. I've been saying for quiet a while now, if the U.S. economy sneezes, the Chinese economy will catch pneumonia. A couple of weeks ago Wall Street had a bad day. The Shanghai dropped 5%.

 

We may all be in for a rough ride. CCP sees inflation as being their big problem but will probably abandon that policy concern if unemployment really gets out of hand. That could be very bad for them but better for us, IF we can keep OUR act together. We'll see what happens here in November.

 

Mike,

I'd be interested to know what your wife thinks about this for the long-haul. Does she think things will ever go back to the days when it was easier to "make money" in China. Or has that bubble burst for good?

 

Dave,

 

Her feeling is that the rapid growth that used to benefit everyone has now consolidated into the larger companies. In other words, there is still room in a VERY entreprenurial economy, but the focus has changed now, something like how the auto industry consolidated in the '20's and '30's, but on an economy wide scale.

 

I can see what she is saying. There are more and more large chains and mega-retailers. From my perspective, China is moving along pretty much the same path that the U.S. took, but compressing our 100+ years of experience into about 25 to 30 years. It's like watching a dvd on fast forward.

[Guest Mike and Lily]

Chinese un-employment?

 

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/W...china_02_15.asp

 

 

Potentially 300 million unemployed.....that would be like if nobody in the US had a job...no matter how you look at it, from a US growth, world growth, or purely a internal Chinese problem...this is not good. The impact of such an occurance will be felt everwhere...

 

My wife, who is without a doubt the smartest business person I've ever known, has been telling me that it is becoming very difficult to "make money" in China now. One of her friends, a virtual genius commodities trader, no longer trades because of the volatility of the market. She won't even sell short because of the uncertainty.

 

A good part of the problem is rooted in the faltering U.S. economy. I've been saying for quiet a while now, if the U.S. economy sneezes, the Chinese economy will catch pneumonia. A couple of weeks ago Wall Street had a bad day. The Shanghai dropped 5%.

 

We may all be in for a rough ride. CCP sees inflation as being their big problem but will probably abandon that policy concern if unemployment really gets out of hand. That could be very bad for them but better for us, IF we can keep OUR act together. We'll see what happens here in November.

 

Mike,

I'd be interested to know what your wife thinks about this for the long-haul. Does she think things will ever go back to the days when it was easier to "make money" in China. Or has that bubble burst for good?

 

I don't think China can ever go back. For the last 10 years, China has been like the wild west of business. Now with the falling dollar, China will need to clean up it's act in order to complete. They can't just compete on price anymore. Chinese products have a reputation similar to the products made by the Japanese in the 60's and 70's. Japan improved it's quality control and blew away the US carmakers, watchmakers and many other industries as well. The difference between China and Japan though is that China has a limitless supply of labor, both skilled and unskilled. China will do the same thing over time. Lead paint in toys, poison pet food and other problems will eventually fade away into the past. China is educating their populace at an alarming rate. China's economy will continue to thrive, it may have ups and downs, but in the long term, China will become the dominant economic power in the world in the next twenty years. However, those without education or skills will continue to struggle in China, as they do here.

[IllinoisDave]

However, those without education or skills will continue to struggle in China, as they do here.

That's what's scaring me. The number of those in China will obviously be much greater than here, along with the impact. And I'm afraid the effect will be felt much greater and much farther up the economic class ladder than here.

[Guest Tony n Terrific]

300 million unemployed? That would be a total nightmare for Beijing and for the world. Who would be blamed for this debacle? The Government of course. If this scenario would play out you may see China once again like the experiences it had in through the 19th to the mid part of the 20th century less the opium scourge.

[Guest Mike and Lily]

300 million unemployed? That would be a total nightmare for Beijing and for the world. Who would be blamed for this debacle? The Government of course. If this scenario would play out you may see China once again like the experiences it had in through the 19th to the mid part of the 20th century less the opium scourge.

 

On the contrary, I think things will only get better for the Chinese workers. The article only predicts that the blazing double digit growth rate of the last 5 years will slow down. Not negative growth. There will still be substantial growth, just not quite as fast. The US "recession" and the falling dollar will take some of the steam out of the frothy growth rate, but the Chinese economy will still be growing at a substantially greater rate than ours. The Chinese government is doing all the right things for their economy and their people. The standard of living for the majority of Chinese should continue to improve.

[IllinoisDave]

Chinese companies having trouble filling open jobs.

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-02...ent_6464947.htm